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On CNBC’s MAD MONEY, Jim Cramer hosted Sirius Satellite Radio’s (SIRI) Mel Karmazin. As a reminder, Cramer was positive once already this afternoon on the STOP TRADING segment on CNBC around 2:45 PM EST. Mel said he doesn’t need to merge, but they would do what is best for holders. Cramer earlier said the stock could go to $5.00 or higher on its own and could go to $8.00 in a merger. Cramer earlier touted the SIRI quarter as good and thinks they’ll make money in two-years. Cramer says that growth at a reasonable price is SIRIUS (SIRI).Cramer had Mel Karmazin on the show. Cramer noted that Howard Stern has worked, as they have added over 4 million subscribers since before Stern joined SIRI. Cramer asked if NASCAR could be as big as big as Stern next year. Karmazin said he thinks many will buy the service solely for NASCAR next year. On the soft retail market Karmazin said it has quieted down, but he thinks the holiday season will be gangbusters like last year. Karmazin did say they have a lot to do to hit the year-end numbers, but they can hit cash flow positive next year on $1 Billion in revenues if they hit their targets. Compared to terrestrial revenues, SIRI is behind only Clear Channel and CBS in listeners and will be the third largest or fourth largest radio entity next year after only having 4 years of operations. He said they will do $3 Billion in revenues by 2010. He wants ad revenue about 10% of total revenues, or $100 million next year. Karmazin said there could be a value created in a merger, but they would rather go it alone as they are still adding more partners. He would be open to making an acquisition if it helped shareholders.Cramer said he thinks that the stock can make a 50% move from here. SIRI closed up 0.75% at $4.12 on the day in regular trading, but the stock rose 2.9% to $4.24 in after-hours trading after Cramer said it can go up 50% from here.Jon C. OggNovember 8, 2006

Yesterday I noted that Cisco Systems (CSCO) would need to go above and beyond expectations to impress the street, and that is just what the company did. CSCO closed up 1.05% at $25.10 in normal trading and that was already a two-year high, but its shares are up another 7% to $26.85 in after-hours trading. CSCO showed us net income of 0.26 GAAP, but non-GAAP EPS was $0.31 on revenues of $8.18 Billion. The street was only looking for $0.29 EPS and revenues of $7.9 Billion.CSCO also forecast for a 24% to 25% rise in revenues over last year, above the 21% approximate growth. On a standalone basis without the Scientific Atlanta deal its CEO John Chanbers said the revenue growth would have been 14% to 15%, at the higher-end of a 10% to 15% range.The company also said its book-to-bill ratio in the current quarter is above 1.0, which the company said is unusual for a seasonally weak quarter. The company bought back 66 milllion shares at an average price of $22.85 per share in the last quarter. It still holds some $19.5 Billion in cash and equivalents.If you look at the quote from Chanbers, there is something else to note: “We are in the midst of a market inflection that is changing the landscape of networking, and we believe the network is becoming the platform for the next generation of IT, revolutionizing the way people connect, communicate and collaborate. We laid the cornerstones for our strategy to capture this shift several years ago and believe we are now uniquely positioned for continued growth and increased share of our customers’ total IT spend.”That quote sort of telegraphs that acquisitions for the near-future will be more niche and segment focused rather than broad-based into new large-scale additions to its broader product line. I have noted in the past that the company has transformed into a company that routes and controls almost every aspect of data packets essentially from the point that the wires attach to the back of servers all the way to the point that the cords (or wireless) reaches your computer (or PDA). The company is telling you they have achieved that goal.Cisco’s (CSCO) average price target was just north of $26.00 before the report, and that is higher than the old $23.00-ish target before last quarter. This after-market trading activity is implying that Wall Street will be raising its price targets for CSCO shares tomorrow.The street is treating it so well that even all the competitors are running after-hours: JNPR +3%, FDRY +3.25%, EXTR +1.5%, MOT +0.5%. CY (chip supplier) +0.5%, CLS (outsourced manufacturer) +0.25%. CNXT +0.5%, RBAK +1.25%, ARRS +0.25%, MRVL +1.25%, BRCM +2.8%. Chambers had been criticized in the pact for alluding to the companies growth as being highly correlated to GDP, but they have come a long way since that stance now.Jon C. OggNovember 8, 2006

KBW, Inc., the parent of Keefe, Bruyette, & Woods and a stellar investment bank that tends to focus on the financial sector, is set to price its IPO tonight. It was planning to offer 6.5 million shares at a range of $19.00-$21.00, but that share count has reportedly been bumped to 6.8 million shares. There will now be 2.9 million shares from insiders instead of 2.7 million shares.At the high-end of the IPO range company is going to have an implied market cap of about $650 million. Keep in mind that is a personally calculated hypothetical number. The underwriters of the deal include KBW itself and Merrrill Lynch as lead underwriters; and co-managers are Banc of America, Fox-Pitt Kelton, JMP Securities, Thomas Weisel, BNY Capital, and FTN Midwest.It employed 430 people as of June 30, 2006, including 101 in investment banking, 151 in sales and trading and 82 in research; it covers 489 companies under research. Here is the breakdown of the company:-U.S. registered broker-dealer, Keefe, Bruyette & Woods, Inc.;-U.S. registered investment advisor, KBW Asset Management, Inc.;-Keefe, Bruyette & Woods Limited, an investment firm authorized and regulated by the U.K. Financial Services Authority.It provides research, sales & trading, investment banking, and fixed income services. The firm specialized in the bank and thrift sector; and expanded the financial services sector: insurance companies, broker-dealers, mortgage banks, asset management companies, mortgage REITs, consumer and specialty finance firms, financial processing companies and securities exchanges. It also expanded from the United States into Europe with a European-focused team in the London office.KBW posted 2005 revenues combined at $307.8 million and net income was listed at $17.4 Million on an after-tax basis. For the first 6 months of 2006 the company posted revenues of $193.1 million and after-tax net income of $14.8 Million. As of June 30, 2006 it carried Assets of $622 million and total operating liabilities of $340 million.The company has the traditional range of risks listed in the prospectus for the company, including the equivalent comments that its real assets walk out the front door and go home every night. In truth, unless they have hidden and buried ghosts that aren’t known this IPO is one that long-term investors will want to own. We didn’t go out with any formal endorsements ahead of the pricing, but everything looks right here.There are some hidden risks. In a democratic environment could impact some of the super-mergers, but there are literally hundreds of smaller deals the company can participate in over the next few years. That sounds lofty and you should be skeptical of what I say there, but if you look at what the company does and how it has situated itself it is more truth than speculation.The deal looks pricey if you use backward metrics on paper, but forget about using a paper analogy. This company is perhaps in the biggest sweet spot in investment banking and research coverage for the coming decade. Yes that is an aggressive statement, and history will prove this right or wrong. There is absolutely no way to know if there can ever be any hidden ghosts in the closet, but outside of this the deal looks great. If you look out to 2007 and beyond it starts to look like a far better deal. Even though the pricing seems aggressive, it is priced better than it really looks. While it is coming out at roughly two-times its trailing book value, I expect that book value to grow substantially in the next 24 months.The company lost essentially one-third of its workforce back in 2001 in the World Trade Center as a result of the 9/11 attacks. This company would have already been public if it was not for 9/11. They are back, and they are stronger than ever.While this looks great on a longer-term basis, there is no way to know what the exact street reaction will be in the immediate after-market. Right now all looks good ahead of it and the low float should make for a larger IPO demand than there is supply of shares. We wish the company luck, and would certainly expect the company’s shares to gravitate higher over a long-term basis.Jon C. OggNovember 8, 2006

On a post-election basis an on a day where we are awaiting CSCO earnings, your guess is as good as any. We have a mixed bag in the tech sector and the markets are mixed. There are no clear leaders in the usual tech names, and there is still no clear leadership in trading volume. Both the sub-$5.00 usual suspects and the Horsemen stocks are running just over 10% of total NASDAQ volume. With CSCO reporting tonight, you could likely expect that the Horsemen stocks will be heavily dominated by CSCO and the sub-$5.00 names will not be able to compete except for those names tied to and overlapping CSCO.

Jon C. OggNovember 8, 2006

Sirius Satellite Radio (SIRI) is trading up 3.2% at $4.22 pre-market after reporting narrower losses and higher subscribers.It posted losses of -$0.12 on EPS and revenues of $167.1 million, but estimates were -$0.14 and $167 million. On an adjusted basis pre-options the losses would have been -$0.09 on non-GAAP EPS. Sirius ended with more than 5.1 million paying subscribers after adding some 441,101 subscribers in the quarter. It reaffirmed a projected 6.3 million subscribers by year-end and put its churn rate at about 1.8% (churn was 2% for this quarter). It also put 2006 revenues at roughly $615 million, although street estimates are $623 million; and it expects an operating loss of $565 million on an adjusted basis.Its subscriber acquisition costs were $80.9 million in the quarter, although it attributed the higher costs to radio shipments and increases in certain new chip sets needed to support subscriber additions.Sirius did note that it may reach positive cash flow in the fourth quarter, and put 2007 revenues at about $1 Billion. Mel Karmazin said that only Clear Channel and CBS Radio will be larger on the terrestrial side after next year.Shares of XM Satellite Radio (XMSR) are down 0.4% at $13.44 pre-market on thin volume, but it rose sharply after its own earnings on Monday. SIRI closed up almost 7% after XMSR reported earnings.Jon C. OggNovember 8, 2006

AAPL reitr Overweight at JPMorgan.AINV cut to Hold at Citigroup.AMAT started as Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley.BARE started as Outperform at Thomas Weisel, started as Neutral at B of A, started as Outperform at CIBC.CCRT started as Buy at Jefferies.CPE started as Outperform at Morgan Keegan.CYMI started as Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley.CZN cut to Neutral at Merrill Lynch.DF raised to Buy at AGEdwards.EMR cut to MKt Perform at FBR.FORM started as Overweight at Morgan Stanley.IQW raised to Neutralat Merrill Lynch.KLAC started as Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley.LEAP raised to Outperform at Bear Stearns.LRCX started as Overweight at Morgan Stanley.MEND started as Buy at Pacific Growth.MHGC raised to Neutral at Merrill Lynch.MRX raised to Overweight at JPMorgan.NTES cut to Peer Perform at Bear Stearns.NWN reitr Buy at AGEdwards.NVT started as Neutral at B of A.OSIP cut to Peer Perform at Bear Stearns, cut at Citigroup and B of A..PJC started as Neutral at Goldman Sachs.SAI started as Neutral at UBS.SFLY started as Buy at Jefferies, started as Overweight at JPMorgan.TDS cut to Neutrall at Merrill Lynch.TEVA cut to Mkt Perform at Wachovia, cut to Neutral at JPMorgan.TRLG cut to Mkt Perform at FBR, cut to Sector Perform at Oppenheimer.TLCP raised to Neutral at Goldman Sachs.TOL cut to Mkt Perform at Wachovia.URBN raised to Outperform at CIBC.WFMI raised to Overweight at JPMorgan.XOM reitr Buy at AGEdwards.

WiMax seems to some investors like a mirage. Out there in the future there will be a broadband signal that can blanket entires cities. Wide pipe for everyone. Democracy at work.Well, if you stop into South Korea, it is really going on. Samsung has just released a device that can act as a computer and a phone, using a WiMax signal to feed it. The new gadget can even get TV. Of course, Samsung is not some wacky start-up that is trying to peddle new technology to the world. And, it is headquartered in a market where the government plans to offer WiMax throughout Seoul by the end of next year.Samsung is one of the big backers of WiMax, along with Intel and Motorola. All three companies think there are big bucks in selling WiMax-enable handsets and infrastructure hardware to make WiMax systems work.All of this is hopeful news for Sprint, the gang-that-couldn’t-shot-straight cellular company that competes with Verizon Wireless and Cingular in the US market. Sprint’s integration with NexTel has not gone well. The combined company’s subscriber growth has been poor compared to its rivals.But, Sprint is investing $3 billion to have a WiMax network in the US to handle its next-generation phones. This will put it on a different footing that its rivals who will continue to use the Qualcomm standard.There is hope for Sprint, even if it is an ocean away.Douglas A. McIntyre can be reached at douglasamcintyre@247wallst.com. He does not own securities in companies that he writes about.

Stocks: BCS)(BP)(BT)(GSK)(PUK)(TRTSY)(UN)(UL)(VOD)(BAY)(DCX)(DB)(DT)(SI)(ALA)(AXA)(FTE)(V)Markets in Europe were off at 5.35 AM New York time.The FTSE was down .5% to 6,215. Barclays was down .6% to 712.5. BP was off 1.1% to 592. BT was up .3% to 289.5. DSG was up 2.5% to 219.25. GlaxoSmithKline was down 1.1% to 1412. Prudential was down .8% to 642. Reuters was down .1% to 452.5. Rio Tinto was down 2.3% to 2947. Unilever was off 1.7% to 1378. Vodafone was down .2% to 132.75.The DAXX was off .4% to 6,337. Bayer was up .2% to 40.22. BMW was down 1.2% to 44.05. DaimlerChysler was down .5% to 45.7 DeutscheBank was down .8% to 98.88. Deutsche Telecom was down .4% to 13.55. Siemens was down .4% to 71.38. VW was down 1.6% to 79.95.The CAC 40 was down .4% to 5,416. Alcatel was down 1.5% to 10.2. AXA was down 1.4% to 30.33. EADS was up 2.2% to 21.12. France Telecom was down 1.8% to 19.95. ST Micro was down 1.4% to 13.67. Vivendi was down .5% to 29.44.Data from Reuters.Douglas A. McIntyre

Stocks: (GOOG)(MRK)(MSFT)(NOVL)(BZH)(TOL)(BA)(FDX)According to Reuters, Democrats gained control of the House of Representatives and were on the verge of talking a majority in the Senate.Reuters reports that Big Oil will be a target of the new Democrat-controlled House. The new majority may roll back tax incentives to the industry.Reuters also writes that the CEO of Google has denied that the company has a legal reserve for potential copyright violation actions against YouTube.Reuters also reports that Google is preparing to make a move into the radio industry by purchasing as much as $1 billion in air time.The Wall Street Journal reports that Merck has four separate tsx disputes that total $5.58 billion.The Wall Street Journal also writes that Microsoft will spend $400 million on its new Linux collaboration with Novell.The Wall Street Journal also reports that Fedex has cancelled orders for 10 Airbus 380 jet liners because of delays in its production. The orders will go to Boeing instead.The New York Times writes that new technology is helping Big Oil companies find billions of barrels of oil in the Gulf of Mexico.The New York Times also reports that home builders Toll Brothers and Beazer both reported that the US housing market in in a deepening slump.The New York Times also writes that consumer borrowing is off sharply as borrowing for new cars falls.Douglas A. McIntyre

Big oil has figured our a new way to get prices up. Don’t invest in projects that will increase oil production.According to a new study from The Internation Energy Agency, oil company investments in oil and natural gas production is only keeping pace with inflation. The study covers that period from 2000 to 2005.The study points out that lean investing in production makes oil prices rise more rapidly when supply tightens because new supplies and facilities are not available to help meet demand. Oil demand has risen sharply over the five year period of the study. And, without substantial increases in production, this made in almost inevitable that prices would be “spring loaded” and would move up sharply as demand expanded.The news may not be surprising to the Exxons, Conocos, and BPs of the world. But, whether the under-investment was planned or not, it has helped them create huge profits as they save money on capital spending by not bringing new production online while their revenues are driven up by the pricing created by new demand.A look at Exxon’s five year stock price chart shows that a picture is worth 1,000 words. The stock has moved from $38 to $73. Pretty nifty.Douglas A. McIntyre can be reached at douglasamcintyre@247wallst.com. He does not own securities in companies that he writes about.