Daily Archives: November 16, 2006

Cramer Goes Back for Sears Holdings Again

Stock Tickers: SHLDTonight on CNBC’s MAD MONEY Cramer also went over one of his long-standing favorite retail plays: Sears Holdings (SHLD).He implied that SHLD stock is no different than investing in a company with a hedge fund manager trying to make his stocks go up. After today’s drop of almost $10.00 after earnings, Cramer said the stock is going back up. He says this is a gift. He did tell on himself that you have heard him back this stock again and again. He said the bears are harping on same store sales and on inventory build-ups. He said it isn’t a screaming buy because of it being a great retail play and not because it is a turnaround story. He says this is an investment ultimately in Eddie Lampert.He has been there for the last $140 of upside, but he thinks it is going much higher and it may be a baby Berkshire Hathaway. Even though it is expensive on multiples, it will get more expensive and Eddie Lampert is a winner. The company allows Eddie Lampert to invest the profits from Sears and K-Mart elsewhere where he sees fit. The company made $101 million off of outside investments. The street doesn’t like that they can’t evaluate Sears as a retailer, but Cramer does.Jon C. OggNovember 16, 2006

Posted on: November 16, 2006 – 9:20 pm in Uncategorized

Cramer Backs Nike and Under Armour

Stock Tickers: NKE, UARMTonight on CNBC’s MAD MONEY, Jim Cramer reviewed two stocks in the same sector that are both buys. He said which one you should own depends on your preference.He said if a company has good management, that means they just aren’t screwing up. Nike (NKE) and Under Armour (UARM) got lucky because Reebok screwed up by cutting marketing. Reebok’s ad budget was only $7 million after Adidas bought them, and these two won as a result.Cramer says that even though NKE and UARM are competing, they are different stocks for different investors. He says both are buys.He says Nike (NKE) is the best for longer-lived investors that look for more stability and more predictability. He noted Under Armour (UARM) is the younger investor’s stock that has a lot of room for growth down the road.NKE trades cheaper, and is more defensive in nature trying toi preserve market share it has. UARM is a high-multiple stock that would crumble if the company messes up. Cramer said UARM’s 31% market share could pass NKE’s 36%, but UARM could take market share and NKE stock could still keep rising because they are different stories. He thinks UARM will take market share from Reebok since they aren’t defending the brand. UARM is one that will get hurt bad if they ever miss an estimate by a penny, and NKE is the stable lion in the group.UARM closed down 1.28% at $46.25 in regular trading, but shares are up almost 3% from teh close at $47.50 in after-hours trading. NKE closed down 0.25% at $95.23 in regular trading, but shares are up 0.9% at $95.92 in after-hours trading.Jon C. OggNovember 16, 2006

Posted on: November 16, 2006 – 9:06 pm in Uncategorized

Genetech Wins FDA Approval For Herceptin For Breast Cancer

Genentech (DNA) announced that the FDA approved its Herceptin cancer treatment for an expanded use for adjuvant treatment of HER2-positive node-positive breast cancer. The studies showed a 52% reduction in the recurrence of breast cancer of some 3,500 patients in two Phase III studies and is the only targeted biologic therapy approved for use in adjuvant and metastatic HER2-positive breast cancer.Adjuvant therapy is given to women with early-stage (localized) breast cancer who have had initial treatment – surgery with or without radiation therapy – with the goal of reducing the risk of cancer recurrence and/or the occurrence of metastatic disease. After three-and-a-half years in the study, 87 percent of women treated with Herceptin plus chemotherapy were disease free, compared to 71 percent of women treated with chemotherapy alone. A survival analysis conducted after patients had been followed for a median of 24 months showed a 33 percent reduction in the risk of death (based on a hazard ratio of 0.67), which is equivalent to a 49 percent improvement in overall survival.DNA shares closed up 0.35% at $80.72 in regulartrading, but shares are up 0.9% at $81.45 in after-hours trading. DNA has a 52-week trading range of $75.58 to $100.20.Jon C. OggNovember 16, 2006

Posted on: November 16, 2006 – 9:05 pm in Uncategorized

Autodesk Up and On Auto Pilot (updated)

please ignore the previous ADSK first line as it improperly said “above”Autodesk (ADSK) just reported record quarter revenues of $457 million, just under the $457.25 million consensus estimate. It is not providing EPS because of the ongoing options review. ADSK closed up 1% at $27.00 in normal trading, but shares are up 6.4% to $39.35 in after-hours trading. The subscription revenues seem to be the game winner as the guidance seems in-line (although guidance may be conservative because of legal ramifications). ADSK 52-week trading range is $29.56 to $47.25.There was a huge bright spot in what may be considered a slight beat with in-line guidance. Its subscription (recurring) revenues have now grown to $111 million, about 24% of revenues, and up 50% from last year. That is an impressive feat and has been one of the growth drivers to the company.Total backlog was $352 million as of October 31, 2006, including $333 million of deferred revenues. Deferred subscription revenues increased $12 million sequentially to $275 million and there was $19 million of unshipped product orders at quarter end. Its DSO (days sales outstanding, or days to get paid!) also fell 1 day to 51 days.There is also guidance (compared to street estimates) where available. Next quarter guidance: Net revenues for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2007 are expected to be between $490 million and $500 million ($495M estimate); following quarter guidance: Net revenues for the first quarter of fiscal 2008 are expected to be approximately flat with the fourth quarter of fiscal 2007. Fiscal 2007 guidance: For fiscal year 2007, net revenues are expected to be between $1.832 billion and $1.842 billion ($1.84B estimate). Fiscal 2008 guidance: For fiscal year 2008, net revenues are expected to be between $2.075 billion and $2.125 billion ($2.10 Billion estimates).Jon C. OggNovember 16, 2006

Posted on: November 16, 2006 – 8:01 pm in Uncategorized

Starbuck’s Decaf (SBUX)

Starbuck’s missed Wall St.’s revenue target and had poor earnings to boot. Some was due to changes in the company’s accounting practices. Investors wanted revenue of $2.02 billion and the coffee retailer did $2 billion.While the company’s long range goal of hitting a total of 30,000 stores worldwide may not be in jeapordy, it may be set back a few days.Starbuck’s shares are off about 6% after hours to just above $37..Douglas A. McIntyre can be reached at douglasamcintrye@247wallst.com. He does not own securities in companies that he writes about.

Posted on: November 16, 2006 – 7:33 pm in Uncategorized

Market Wrap (Nov. 16, 2006)

DJIA 12,305.82; Up 54.11 (0.44%)NASDAQ 2,449.06; Up 6.31 (0.26%)S&P500 1,399.76; Up 3.19 (0.23%)10YR-Bond 4.655% Up 0.04NYSE Volume 2,738,514,000NASD Volume 2,031,971,000Today was another record high on the DJIA. We had another drop in Consumer Prices and natural gas innevtories coming out at another surplus helped fall $2.50 to $56.26. We learned of the death of famed economist (socio-economist) Milton Friedman today.Dell (DELL) was the big shocker as it delayed earnings and said its SEC investigation has now gone to formal. DELL shares fell 2.5% to $25.10, but shares had been down 5% at one point.Applied Materials (AMAT) fell 3.6% to $17.98 after it its EPS from operations were $0.30 versus $0.31 consensus estimates.Clear Channel (CCU) rose 3.5% to $35.36 after receiving a $37.60 private equity buyout.Readers Digest (RDA) rose a sharp 7% to $16.70 after getting a private equity buyout. And who says old media is dead?Apple (AAPL) rose 1.9% to $85.61 after Cramer on MAD MONEY said the stock is not under any real threat for iPod dominance because of Microsoft’s Zune launch and he said the stock is going to $100.00 by year-end.Time Warner (TWX) rose 1.75% to $20.33 to another 52-week high close on optiosn activity on block volume today.Irvine Sensores (IRSN) rose an unbelievable 123% to $2.39 after it said it won more than $16 million in new contract wins.Rambus (RMBS) gained 30% to $21.72 on more speculation of an FTC resolution in its long-standing case.Zoll Medical (ZOLL) rose a sharp 28% to $53.06 after its profit more than doubled.The9 Ltd. (NCTY) rose 20% to $28.36 after beating earnings expectations from its Chinese “World of Warcraft” revenues.Hott Topic (HOTT) rose 17% to $13.04 after beating earnings after yesterday’s close.Allot Communications (ALLT) rose to $13.81 after pricing its IPO at $12.00, above the $9.00 to $11.00 range.KBR (KBR) rose to $20.75 after pricing its IPO at $17.00, at the top of its $15.00 to $17.00 range.Hertz Global (HTZ) rose to $15.60 after it priced its IPO at $15.00, under the $16.00 to $18.00 range.Evergreen Solar (ESLR) fell 4.5% to $8.53 after it filed to sell $250 million in mixed securities because of the crummy timing of this need to raise cash. They waited until it was close to the bottom rather than top of a longer-term range.BEA Systems (BEAS) fell a sharp 16% to $13.13 after missing revenue projections after yesterday’s close.Cisco Systems (CSCO) rose $0.02 to $27.15 after it allocated another $7 Billion for share buybacks.Lojack (LOJN) fell 4% to $15.51 after its CEO announced he would resign and work in a transition period for the already-named replacement from inside of the company.Sears Holdinsg (SHLD) fell 5.5% to $169.26 after beating earnings estimates because of an earnings quality issue.Jon C. OggNovember 16, 2006

Posted on: November 16, 2006 – 7:25 pm in Uncategorized

HP Earnings: Revenue Growth Light (HPQ)

HP announced earnings after the close. Revenue rose only 7% to $24.6 billion. Non-GAAP operating income rose from $1.5 billion in the quater a year ago to $1.9 billion. Desktop sales were flat while notebook unit sales rose 24%. Revenue at the imaging and printing unit rose 7%.Enterprise storage and server revenue rose 4% to $4.7 billion. And, services revenue rose 5%.Looking at the results, Paul Meeks, a hardware analyst interviews on CNBC, believes that the results only merit a share price of $40 to $41, which is where the stock trades now.The forecast for the next quarter is for revenue to be in the $24.1 to $24.3 billion range and for the next fiscal $97 billion.While revenue and EPS were slightly ahead of Wall St. estimates, the figures hardly constitute a blow out quarter. After rising 40% this year, the shares may be taking a pause.Douglas A. McIntyre can be reached at douglasamcintyre@247wallst.com. He does not own securities in companies that he writes about.

Posted on: November 16, 2006 – 7:12 pm in Uncategorized

Cramer Thumbs Down on Pepsi (PEP); Positive on NYMEX IPO Again

On today’s STOP TRADING segment on CNBC, Jim Cramer started on the snack topic.Cramer said he is still anti-Pepsi (PEP) because of the snackfood business. Cramer said that Pepsi did address his comments, but the fat wars will clip their wings. Cramer said it is too little too late. He thinsk Pepsi (PEP) could fall to $55 (from $61.80 now). He said they aren’t sitting still, but their 20-times earnings multiple could get cut down to 18-times earnings. Cramer said that from the May ramp you still don’t want to go back into it.NYMEX is going to price tonight. He said again that he would still pay up $20 for the stock after the IPO price.Jon C. OggNovember 16, 2006

Posted on: November 16, 2006 – 5:46 pm in Uncategorized

A Tribute to Milton Friedman

There are numerous media reports today of the passing away of Milton Friedman, perhaps the greatest and most influential economist of the modern era.There are genuinely too many ways to describe and too many things to properly credit him for. These are just some of the things I would credit him for, yet it is probably a disservice to him to keep the list so short:Nobel Prize winner……One of the greatest modern economists, if not THE greatest of modern economists……Will have more name recognition as our time becomes history than Alan Greenspan could even aspire for……Laissez-faire advocate……Famous economic author……Proponent of a more consumption tax basis…..The reviver of money supply as the tool to increase or decrease economic output…..Credited as one of the large proponents of free floating current exchange rates…..Involved in the move toward changing military from a draft system to a volunteer for hire system…..Even tied to the dropping of the gold standard to a market standard (I recall it as something like “money is worth whatever people think it is worth”)…..In a summary, Milton Friedman will be missed. If any foreign government wanted to instill economic changes in the last 3 decades, Milton Friedman was at the top of the list of economists that would be used for consultation. This man transcended modern politics and was respected by many regardless of their political views.Not all of his theories were loved, but whatever he said was listened to closely and evaluated before any criticism could be handily thrown back. If any of my credits to him are not factual, it is memory errors on my part. I cannot pay enough credit he is worthy of regardless of how much or how little I could say about him. His economic theories will be read about and used for future generations throughout the world.Jon C. OggNovember 16, 2006

Posted on: November 16, 2006 – 3:51 pm in Uncategorized

How Many Times Will Applied Materials Call the Bottom?

By William Trent, CFA of Stock Market BeatLast month we wrote a piece asking someone (anyone) to tell Applied Materials (AMAT) CEO Mike Splinter there’s a slowdown coming for semiconductor equipment manufacturers. Apparently someone gave him the message, but he is taking it only half-heartedly.According to TheStreet.com:Splinter said he expects Applied’s silicon business to grow by more than 10% in fiscal 2007, outpacing the broader industry.But executives warned of a “modest pullback” among customers in the current quarter.Applied projected that sales will decline 5% to 10% sequentially in its fiscal first quarter. That suggests a revenue range of $2.41 billion to $2.28 billion, below the average analyst expectation of $2.46 billion.When we wrote our plea for intervention, we noted that Mike Splinter called the bottom of the last slowdown for about 8 consecutive quarters, so what should we expect? Which brings us to a new (albeit slow-paced) drinking game. From now until there is actually a bottom in semiconductor equipment orders we will take a shot each time Splinter suggests that orders have/will bottom in the current/next quarter.The author may hold a position in the securities discussed.The author’s current holdings are as follows: Long: Intuit (INTU) put options; Nasdaq 100 (QQQQ) put options; Bookham (BKHM; Ballard Power (BLDP); Syntax Brillian (BRLC); CMGI (CMGI); Genentech (DNA); Ion Media Networks (ION); Lion’s Gate (LGF); Three Five Systems (TFS); Adobe Systems (ADBE) call options; Ceradyne (CRDN); IShares Japan (EWJ); StreetTracks Gold (GLD); Starbucks (SBUX); U.S. Oil Fund (USO); Plantronics (PLT) call options; Short: Lion’s Gate (LGF) call options; Dell (DELL) put options; Ceradyne (CRDN) call options; Plantronics (PLT) put options.http://stockmarketbeat.com/blog1/

Posted on: November 16, 2006 – 3:08 pm in Uncategorized

Bogeying Hewlett-Packard Earnings; Dell’s Problems Act As A Gift

Stock Tickers: HPQ, DELLHewlett-Packard (HPQ) was given a gift with all of the problems at Dell (DELL) as far as what they have to show today. As for earnings, the street is looking for HPQ to post $0.64 EPS on revenues of $24.1 Billion. The street is also looking for EPS at $0.60 and revenues of $23.9 Billion for the quarter ended January 31, 2007.The “pre-texting” scandal and invasions of privacy to protect its corporate leaks seems so far to be geared mostly to people who have left or been booted. We’ll also get to see if the company is really using its $6 Billion allocated toward share buybacks.It recently acquired VoodooPC to attack Dell’s acquisition of Alienware to capture the premium high-end PC-gamer market. It also is heading more into the consulting and IT-side of the business after it completed the Mercury Interactive acquisition for some $4.5 Billion. The street has been guessing if the company will or will not make more acquisitions, so we’ll have to look to see if they say more there on that front.PC margins are still expected to grow from the 4% area now, despite the fact that this is already up since its Compaq acquisition. The company has regained its number one position as far as PC sales. The street is probably as confused as the public about how the release of Windows Vista at the end of January is going to affect all PC makers over the next quarter or two, so we may have to look at HPQ earnings for other metrics than the PC business and we’ll have to treat it based on the overall “feel-good generalities” that the company gives us today.Each quarter there is a hope that the printing & imaging operations will not be as dominant down the road (last quarter was $6.2 Billion out of $21.9 Billion total revenues and $884 million net income out of the entire $1.5 Billion non-GAAP net income).The stock is up more than 15% since its mid-September lows, but shares are up 53% from the 52-week lows. While the stock is up within 2% of its yearly high put in earlier, its chart based on various technical indicators is surprisingly not saying that it is grossly overbought. The fundamental analysts are still more positive than negative on the name, but the average price target appears to be $42 to $43 on the stock.It should be kept in mind that options expire tomorrow at the close of the market, but options traders appear braced for a move of roughly $0.85 to $0.95 based on current trading. There is also a net effect of left over contracts to the tune of only 12,000 or 13,000 options contracts in the closest put and call options that expire tomorrow, but there are actually just under 140,000 contracts in the open interest of the closest put and call options before you take the pairing off into consideration.The company has to be thankful as could be since Dell dropped the SEC bomb today and delayed earnings. This may have at least taken some of the recent scandal news heat off of H-P, but now the media can focus more and more on how the overall restructuring plan is going since the same people that cover DELL and HPQ now only have to worry about what H-P says today. What ever the company says, they at least don’t have to worry about Dell stealing their thunder tonight.The company is projected to post revenue gains next year of close to 5% for Fiscal Oct. 2007 to roughly $96 Billion and expected to show EPS growth of about 13-14% to $2.48 or so for the same period. Now the street has to look ahead to that to see if the company can guide above that now that H-P is no longer just a turnaround and hotshot new CEO story promising headcount reductions and cost cutting measures.Jon C. OggNovember 16, 2006

Posted on: November 16, 2006 – 2:38 pm in Uncategorized

Evergreen Solar’s $250 Million Securities Shelf; Why Did They Wait So Long?

Evergreen Solar (ESLR) has made a filing with the SEC to sell up to $250 million in mixed securities, otherwise known as a shelf offering. The stock has fallen 2% pre-market because of the dilution that can occur, and its market cap is only $608 million as is. What is unbelievable here is the timing.Yesterday the closed at $8.94, but its 52-week trading range is $7.27 to $17.50. Its shares are well off the highs from earlier in the year when alternative energy stocks and other energy stocks were much higher because of soaring oil prices. So what is amazing here is why the company waited this long with the stock close to its lows. I won’t fault a company for going to the capital markets to take advantage of a situation to bolster a balance sheet, but when you do it AFTER your stock loses almost 50% from having a more than 200% gain the year before it seems foolish.None of the name analysts that follow the stock expect profits any time soon, so it isn’t as though the company could hang its hat on the fact that it was generating any massive cash flows. The Sept. 30 balance sheet lists total assets at $211 million, with $162.7 million in current assets; and showed total long-term and current liabilities at $223.7 million.So now they are planning securities sales to the tune of $250 million. The securities shelf is general like many with a list of common stock, preferred stock, depository shares, warrants, and debt instruments listed as possible securities. Here is how it lists its own use of proceeds: the net proceeds from the sale of securities offered by this prospectus will be used primarily for manufacturing expansions associated with EverQ and other opportunities, as well as for general corporate purposes, including working capital. We may also use a portion of the net proceeds to fund possible investments in and acquisitions of complimentary businesses, partnerships, minority investments, products or technologies. Currently, other than our commitments with EverQ, there are no commitments or agreements regarding such acquisitions or investments that are material. Pending such uses, we plan to invest the net proceeds in highly liquid, investment grade securities.While this is at least being used for expansion capital and for possible acquisitions down the road, the company should have known about this back after the stock was a screaming eagle rather than just another money-losing alternative energy play that has already seen its huge run. This is a company that I have actually liked in the past because solar power makes so much sense and they have a history of actually selling solar panels and systems, BUT this shelf offering is indicative of management that is not out to maximize shareholder value. While the street may price offerings at a discount if shares are deemed lofty, you at least capture the momentum of the time. Maybe the company didn’t know it would definitely need the extra plant capacity earlier this year, but optimistic management would have at least tried to take advantage of a stronger alternative energy stock market when it was there instead of waiting until the sector had cooled off.If you were grading based on the timing and net effect of this offering for current shareholders, management would get a “D” or an “F” grade here for the timing of this secondary. The company had a $90 million convertible shelf filing last December, and at least that was while the shares were on the way up. But this makes you wonder just what the company was thinking.Jon C. OggNovember 16, 2006

Posted on: November 16, 2006 – 12:54 pm in Uncategorized

Will The Companies Bought By Private Equity Get Turned Back To The Shareholders

A novel class action suit is brewing. Shareholders in several public companies take private by big private equity firms like Blackstone and KKR say that these firms conspired to get good prices in the buy-outs. HCA, Harrah’s and Univision are mentioned in the court documents and the suit is based, in part, on an investigation that the Justice Department is doing into potential cooperation among the large private equity operations.If the plantiffs prevail or get far enough along to force a settlement, one of two things could happen. The private equity firms could pay shareholders a fee between the “fair value” of the public companies and what they paid for them as they were taken private. Or, they could give the companies back to the shareholders and take back the money they paid for the buyout.Most shareholders would probably just like a little more money per share, but the private equity guys may not see it that way.If a company is turned back to shareholders, they may do better over time. Any one of these companies could have a few good years and the share prices might rise. Riches for all.On the other hand, any one of these companies could have a few bad years. Or, the stock market could take a sharp downturn. Then shareholders would lose buckets of money. Of course, then they could sue the management.Note to shareholders of public companies being taken private: take the money and run.Douglas A. McInyre can be reached at douglasamcintyre@247wallst.com. He does not own securities in companies that he writes about.

Posted on: November 16, 2006 – 12:41 pm in Uncategorized

Another Problem For Dell: Acer (DELL)(HPQ)(WMT)(AMZN)

Unlike most other PC manufacturers Acer is in high-growth mode. Acer’s shipments last year went up 22%, a rate more than double the industry’s. Acer’s growth in the third quater of this year was also better than its rivals. In short order, Acer may pass Lenovo for third place among PC companies, putting it behind only HP and Dell.Acer, based in Taiwan, has a fairly low cost base. This helps it sell inexpensive machines in markets like China and India.But, what about the US. Acer now runs inserts in major US newspapers. Acer’s share here is 3.3% but it has been rising. The company now has reselling arrangements with Wal-Mart, Best Buy, Office Depot, CDW, and Amazon.com. In other words, Acer PC are now widely available in the US. Although the company has not set up a direct marking internet operation in the US, it would not be surprising to see that over the next year.Dell did not need to worry about anything else, but it has not worked out that way.Douglas A. McIntyre can be reached at douglasamcintyre@247wallst.com. He does not own shares in companies that he writes about.

Posted on: November 16, 2006 – 12:24 pm in Uncategorized

A Tale of Two IPO’s: Hertz Versus KBR

Hertz Global (HTZ) and KBR (KBR) are two very different IPO’s, although both come out from under a cloud.Hertz (HTZ) priced its 88.2+ million share IPO at $15.00 per share, under the $16 to $18 range set by underwriters. This is being sold by the private equity consortium (Clayton, Dubilier & Rice, the Carlyle Group and Merril Lynch Global Private Equity) that bought it from Ford (F) just last year. The problem the street has is not so much with the overall operation of the company, but the structure is a real puker. Most of the proceeds are actually going back to the private equity firms (dividends) and the private equity consortium increased the debt structure since last year’s acquisition. Until (assuming IF) this trades lower and has some seasonality behind the deal and gets some of the private equity ownership is sold off and diluted we will not evaluate the company for longer-term investors. This is also not the company’s first pony ride so to speak. CNBC’s Pisani just said he was surprised that the deal was weak from the floor of the NYSE this morning, but that shows you he isn’t reading much ahead of these deals.KBR (KBR) is FINALLY coming public. This is the engineering and contracting unit that is being spun off out of Halliburton (HAL) and the street has been hoping Halliburton would break this out for a couple of years or more. The pricing came at $17.00, at the top-end of the $15 to $17 range it had stated. This does not come without any fleas. It had to delay its IPO because of regulatary issues over no-bid contracts in the US, recently has had to delay its IPO a day because of demands out of UK regulators, and of course has much of its business operations tied to support contracts in Iraq. The street has perceived that this is actually coming out with an embedded call option of a “cleaner and leaner company” and Halliburton (HAL) shareholders may get the rest of the shares distributed directly to them. That may act as an overhang in the intermediate term, but longer-term investors appear willing to take a shot here with it being priced at a perceived 10% to 20% discount to peers.Happy IPO’ing today.Jon C. OggNovember 16, 2006

Posted on: November 16, 2006 – 12:16 pm in Uncategorized

China Mobile: It’s Good To Be King (CHL)

Stocks: (VZ)(S)(CHL)China Mobile has almost 300 million customers. It also has plans about how it will get more. The CEO of the world’s largest cell company want to make his phones a “Swiss Army knife that can do anything for you.” Pretty cool. And, smart.The company is offering a new music sharing service among phones with the help of News Corp. The company has also done an outstanding job of promoting text messaging and music downloads.China Mobile is also looking outside its home markets for acquisitions in Asia, South America, and Africa. These are markets that will grow quickly and may not have well-funded and dominant local cell companies.There may be a lesson in this for US cell companies like Verzion, Cingular, and Sprint. Doing well in the US may not be enough. Penetration of phones is fairly high in this country is fairly high. To let the Chinese take the market opportunities in emerging markets would be a mistake. No matter how big China Mobile is in its home market.Douglas A. McIntyre can be reached at douglasamcintyre@247wallst.com. He does not own securities in companies that he writes about.

Posted on: November 16, 2006 – 12:02 pm in Uncategorized

Semiconductor Industry Association Forecasts to 2009 Slightly Lower Than From June Projections

The Semiconductor Industry Association has forecast sales of $321 Billion by 2009.The new annual forecast projects that sales will reach $248.8 Billion in 2006, up 9.4 from 2005. Back in June it had forecast $249.6 Billion in sales for 2006, so this new base rate for 2006 is a revised lower number and affects the projections for 2007 and beyond.The SIA is also projecting roughly a 10% increase in 2007 to $273.5 Billion, slightly more than a 10% sales increase in 2008 to $303.4 Billion, and a 5.8% increase in 2009 to $321 Billion.The numbers are actually slightly under the rest of the projections made back in June of this year. Back then it forecast 11% growth in 2007, 12% in 2008, and 4% in 2009 to a total of what was then estimated at $323 Billion.Please also remember to perhaps take many of the SIA projections with a grain of salt, as many chip industry executives have cautioned on for years. They all support the industry, but they all have their own opinions of how the industry and their businesses are going and they are not going to share much of their private thoughts with the SIA.Jon C. OggNovember 16, 2006

Posted on: November 16, 2006 – 11:56 am in Uncategorized

Pre-Market Stock News (Nov. 16, 2006)

(AAPL) Apple is a buy according to Jim Cramer on MAD MONEY as Zune is D.O.A. and not a threat to iPod.(ALLT) Allot Communications 6.5M share IPO priced at $12.00,above the $9 to $11 range.(AMAT) Applied Materials $0.30 EPS from operations vs $0.31e; stock trading down 2.7%.(AMSF) Amerisafe 7.8+ million share secondary priced at $11.75; closed at $12.05 yesterday.(ANDE) Andersons and marathon (MRO) will build an etahnolplant.(BEAS) BEA Systems trading down 10% after sales were slightly under street estimates.(BIG) Big Lots $0.07 EPS vs -$0.02e; unsure if comparable.(BRC) Brady $0.62 EPS vs $0.60e.(BTU) Peabody Energy replacing HCA in S&P 500 Index on date TBA.(C) Citigroup was won rights to bid $3.1 Billion to buy 85% stake in Guangdon bank in China.(CACH) Cache 1.875 million share secondary is today.(CCC) Calgon Carbon patent invalidated in Canada.(CCU) Clear Channel has reportedly reached a buyout with Thomas H Lee and Bain for $37.60.(CLE) Claire’s Stores $0.39 EPS vs $0.38e.(CRM) Salesforce.com trading down 2%after options and expenses wiped out net earnings.(CSCO) Cisco authorized another $7 Billion for share buybacks.(DELL) Dell’s SEC investigation becomes formal and now said revenues will be released by month end instead of today; stock down over 4%.(DENN) Denny;s CEo interviewed by Cramer on MAD MONEY; Cramer said it is a buy and could go from $4 to $6 soon.(DKS) Dick’s Sporting Goods to replace BTU in S&P Mid Cap 400 index.(DWA) Dreamworks 11.5 million share secondary today priced at $26.80.(FL) Foot Locker boosted dividend after earnings.(GMCR) Green Mountain Coffee $0.19 EPS vs $0.17e.(GMTC) GameTech names new CFo.(GOOG) Google will replace HCA in S&P 100 Index on date TBA.(HNSN) Hansen medical 6.25M share IPO priced at $12.00, in the middle of the $11 to $13 range.(HRZ) Horizon Lines has 2.3 million share secondary.(HTZ) Hertz Global priced its 88+M share IPO at $15.00, under the $16 to $18 range.(IFX) Infineon reported narrower losses overseas.(KBR) KBR 27.8 million share IPO priced at $17.00, at the top of the $15 to $17 range.(LOJN) Lojack CEO has resigned.(NWY) New York & Co. $0.16 EPS vs $0.15e.(RA) Reckson getting $49 bid from Icahn and Macklowe.(SCHS) SchoolSpecialty filed to sell $125M in notes.(SHLD) EPS $1.27 vs $0.98, but was $0.82 after items. R$11.94B vs $11.82B(e); s-s-s -3% but consensus was -3.3%.(SPSN) Spansion 35 million share secondary priced at $13.75, versus $14.00 close; down from $15.25+ in last 5 days.(TTEK) Tetra Tech $0.20 EPS vs $0.18e.(TWMC) Transworld Ent. -$0.43 EPS vs -$0.38e.(TWX) Time Warner’s AOL head Jonathan Miller is leaving the company and will be replaced by NBC’s Randy Falco according to reports.(WSM) William Sonoma $0.29 EPS vs $0.24e;sees Q4 $1.03-1.09 vs $1.15e.(WTS) Watts Water 5 million share secondary priced at $40.00, compared to the $41.58 close yesterday.(WTSLA) Wet Seal $0.08 EPS vs $0.08e.(WYNN) Wynn is going to expand to a full second resort in Macau.(ZLC) Zales -$0.45 EPS vs -$0.46e.(ZUMZ) Zumiez fell 6% after missing sales expectations and guiding Q4 same as prior guidance.(ZVUE) HandHeld Entertainment announced free trading of its 3.2+ million PIPE shares from February; doubles float to about 6.3 million shares.

Posted on: November 16, 2006 – 11:27 am in Uncategorized

Pre-Market Stock News (Nov. 16, 2006)

(AAPL) Apple is a buy according to Jim Cramer on MAD MONEY as Zune is D.O.A. and not a threat to iPod.(ALLT) Allot Communications 6.5M share IPO priced at $12.00,above the $9 to $11 range.(AMAT) Applied Materials $0.30 EPS from operations vs $0.31e; stock trading down 2.7%.(AMSF) Amerisafe 7.8+ million share secondary priced at $11.75; closed at $12.05 yesterday.(ANDE) Andersons and marathon (MRO) will build an etahnolplant.(BEAS) BEA Systems trading down 10% after sales were slightly under street estimates.(BIG) Big Lots $0.07 EPS vs -$0.02e; unsure if comparable.(BRC) Brady $0.62 EPS vs $0.60e.(BTU) Peabody Energy replacing HCA in S&P 500 Index on date TBA.(C) Citigroup was won rights to bid $3.1 Billion to buy 85% stake in Guangdon bank in China.(CACH) Cache 1.875 million share secondary is today.(CCC) Calgon Carbon patent invalidated in Canada.(CCU) Clear Channel has reportedly reached a buyout with Thomas H Lee and Bain for $37.60.(CLE) Claire’s Stores $0.39 EPS vs $0.38e.(CRM) Salesforce.com trading down 2%after options and expenses wiped out net earnings.(CSCO) Cisco authorized another $7 Billion for share buybacks.(DELL) Dell’s SEC investigation becomes formal and now said revenues will be released by month end instead of today; stock down over 4%.(DENN) Denny;s CEo interviewed by Cramer on MAD MONEY; Cramer said it is a buy and could go from $4 to $6 soon.(DKS) Dick’s Sporting Goods to replace BTU in S&P Mid Cap 400 index.(DWA) Dreamworks 11.5 million share secondary today priced at $26.80.(FL) Foot Locker boosted dividend after earnings.(GMCR) Green Mountain Coffee $0.19 EPS vs $0.17e.(GMTC) GameTech names new CFo.(GOOG) Google will replace HCA in S&P 100 Index on date TBA.(HNSN) Hansen medical 6.25M share IPO priced at $12.00, in the middle of the $11 to $13 range.(HRZ) Horizon Lines has 2.3 million share secondary.(HTZ) Hertz Global priced its 88+M share IPO at $15.00, under the $16 to $18 range.(IFX) Infineon reported narrower losses overseas.(KBR) KBR 27.8 million share IPO priced at $17.00, at the top of the $15 to $17 range.(LOJN) Lojack CEO has resigned.(NWY) New York & Co. $0.16 EPS vs $0.15e.(RA) Reckson getting $49 bid from Icahn and Macklowe.(SCHS) SchoolSpecialty filed to sell $125M in notes.(SHLD) EPS $1.27 vs $0.98, but was $0.82 after items. R$11.94B vs $11.82B(e); s-s-s -3% but consensus was -3.3%.(SPSN) Spansion 35 million share secondary priced at $13.75, versus $14.00 close; down from $15.25+ in last 5 days.(TTEK) Tetra Tech $0.20 EPS vs $0.18e.(TWMC) Transworld Ent. -$0.43 EPS vs -$0.38e.(TWX) Time Warner’s AOL head Jonathan Miller is leaving the company and will be replaced by NBC’s Randy Falco according to reports.(WSM) William Sonoma $0.29 EPS vs $0.24e;sees Q4 $1.03-1.09 vs $1.15e.(WTS) Watts Water 5 million share secondary priced at $40.00, compared to the $41.58 close yesterday.(WTSLA) Wet Seal $0.08 EPS vs $0.08e.(WYNN) Wynn is going to expand to a full second resort in Macau.(ZLC) Zales -$0.45 EPS vs -$0.46e.(ZUMZ) Zumiez fell 6% after missing sales expectations and guiding Q4 same as prior guidance.(ZVUE) HandHeld Entertainment announced free trading of its 3.2+ million PIPE shares from February; doubles float to about 6.3 million shares.

Posted on: November 16, 2006 – 11:26 am in Uncategorized

Select Analyst calls (Nov. 16, 2006)

ARB cut to Peer Perform at Bear Stearns.ARXT started as Buy at First Albany.ATMI cut to Neutral at JPMorgan.ATVI started as Peer Perform at Bear Stearns.BEAS cut to Sell at Merrill Lynch.CBRL started as Buy at SunTrust.CDL cut to Sell at B of A.CRL cut to Neutral at Goldman Sachs.CXR cut to Sell at B of A.DDE cut to Sell at Stifel Nicolaus.DG raised to Buy at B of A.ENDP raised to Outperform at RWBaird.ERTS started as Peer Perform at Bear Stearns.ETM cut to Sell at B of A.GR maintained buy but removed from Focus List at Merrill Lynch.JBLU cut to Reduce at UBS.LM raised to Outperform at Wachovia.NBIX raised to Peer Perform at Bear Stearns.NOVA raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank.PETM cut to Neutral at Goldman Sachs.SAH raised to Buy at Goldman Sachs.SFL cut to Sell at Citigroup.SMBI cut to Sell at Goldman Sachs.SUN started as Neutral at Prudential.THQI started as Peer Perform at Bear Stearns.TSO started as Neutral at Prudential.TTWO started as Underperform at Bear Stearns.VLO started as Neutral at Prudential.

Posted on: November 16, 2006 – 11:09 am in Uncategorized