Daily Archives: November 27, 2006

Cramer Says Constellation Brands (STZ) is the Red Wine Winner

Cramer also had a pick about red wine saving lives, although resveratrol (the chemical in red wine) is the chemical that does it.  He said Constellation Brands (STZ) is the real red wine play left in the US because Constellation has been able to push through price hikes of the top nine brands.  The stock hasn’t moved one lick since the good publicity has been out there.  It closed at $27.80 in early November and right now it is giving you a gift as it closed at $27.51 today.  He thinks the analysts must be thinking there is prohibition because the analysts are prohibited from doing certain things. The company lowered down to 13-15% growth down to in-line with the analysts.  Laws discourage companies from pumping this too much, and Cramer says this is a great opportunity even though it floats under the radar and thinks it will blow away estimates quarter after quarter.

STZ 52-week trading range is $22.56 to $29.09 and traded up to $28.05 after Cramer touted it.  OK, he convinced me….so I think I will go have some red wine.

Good night.

Jon C. Ogg
November 27, 2006

Posted on: November 27, 2006 – 6:23 pm in Cramer

Cramer Says a Weak Dollar is Good For MO, DD, PG, HAL

On tonight’s MAD MONEY Cramer said don’t be afraid of a weak dollar, go profit off of it!  He said the world isn’t coming to an end and the worst is already behind us.  The weak dollar and a bad market are things that headliners make up according to him.  The only time to worry about a weak dollar is if it leads to higher interest rates.

Cramer said there are winners in a weak dollar after being successful at being truly global and having a lot of international exposure.  He has 14 American companies with the most International business as a percentage of their operations:

Altria (MO), DuPont (DD), IBM (IBM) Chevron (CVX) Dow Chemical (DOW) Exxon (XOM), AFLAC (AFL), Halliburton (HAL), Colgate (CL), Intel (INTC), Texas Instruments (TXN) and Qualcomm (QCOM).

BUT…..Cramer calls these the 4 Horsemen of a weak dollar apocolypse you want to buy are:
Altria (MO)
Dupont (DD)
P&G (PG)
Halliburton (HAL)

Posted on: November 27, 2006 – 6:10 pm in Cramer

Short Interest In Sirius Rises, Again (XMSR)(SIRI)

The short interest in Sirius Satellite Radio has now gone up six of the last seven months. In November, the figure hit 148.3 million shares up 4%. The number of trading days needed to cover the position based on the daily average at SIRI is nearly four.

After several bad months in the market Sirius is back above $4, but it traded near $8 last November. At least a healthy number of shorts think it is going lower again. Bank of America recently said that its research indicates that retail sales of satellite radios are slowing. Siruis relies more on retail outlets than competitor XM does  B of A has a "neutral" rating on SIRI. No wonder.

Perhaps short sellings were willing to bet that a poor holiday season was in the cards. If so, it looks like they may have bet right.

Douglas A. McIntyre can be reached at douglasamcintyre@247wallst.com. He does not own securities in companies that he writes about.

Posted on: November 27, 2006 – 5:30 pm in Uncategorized

Microsoft Short Interest Spikes Up (MSFT)

Someone on Wall St. must have thought the Zune would not sell well. Or that Vista could be delayed again. Short interest in Microsoft rose a breathtaking 43% to 144.3 million shares  That is on top of a 30% increase in October. The trading days needed to cover the position based on the stock’s average volume is now 2.5. That is substantial position for a stock with Microsoft’s market cap and volume.

Microsoft’s stock recently hit $30. It has not been that high since late 2004. With Vista around the corner, there is an impression that Microsoft’s core desktop franchise will get a list. Although early sales of the company’s multimedia Zune player have been slow , Microsoft has said that it is in the business to stay and is willing to invest hundreds of millions of dollars on the product.

And, Microsoft’s statements about its Zune commitment seem true. It chased Sony’s Playstation for years, and now there are rumors that the company’s Xbox game console is outselling its Sony counterpart.

Investors are still left with enought questions that a run-up of 40% over the last year may be too much for a company with a market cap of over $290 billion. While it is likely that Vista will generate tremendous cash flow and that the Xbox is a formidable competitor in the gaming business, the future of Microsoft’s online Live software initiative, MSN, and Xune costs are still in doubt.

And, those questions may be enough to cap the stock’s rise and bring in the shorts.

Douglas A. McIntyre can be reached at douglasamcintyre@247wallst.com. He does not own securities in companies that he writes about.

Posted on: November 27, 2006 – 5:15 pm in Uncategorized

US Stock Market Wrap (Nov. 27, 2006)

DJIA                   12,121.79; Down 158.38 (1.29%)
NASDAQ           2,405.92; Down 54.34 (2.21%)
S&P500            1,381.95; Down 19.00 (1.36%)
10YR-Bond       4.5380%     Down 0.01%
NYSE Volume    2,627,768,000
NASD Volume    1,912,940,000

It is a bit ironic that just last week I had commented on how investors who wanted to hedge with put options could do so for the cheapest premiums (based on the VIX) in modern times, and it is also amazing that Doug timed his 15 Most Overvalued Stocks segment.  Today the DJIA showed it can actually have a ghastly day.  The dollar continued its erosion, and the Saudi’s even said they’d support another oil production cut on the same day a mortar attack on the northern oil export terminal in Iraq (do we dare note that the Saudi’s didn’t deliver on any promises to cut production last time).  Anyway, today was ugly.  You could blame a crummy dollar, oil, Wal-Mart, or profit taking, but it was a big sell-off regardless of the blame.  All major US averages were lower, but not all stocks were lower.  Out of the 20 most actives as of 3:30 PM EST the only one positive on NASDAQ was Charter Communications (CHTR) by a whole $0.01; and on NYSE the only two positive issues of the top 20 were Pfizer (PFE) and AT&T (T).

Wal-Mart (WMT) fell 2.6% or $1.29 to $46.61 after it forecast November same store sales would be -0.1%, its first comparable drop in 10 years.

Google (GOOG) also fell 4% or $20.25 to $484.75 after Barron’s "Trader" section called the stock overvalued.

Ford (F) fell 4% to $8.16 after it noted it has received some $18 Billion in financing to cover its restructuring and to cover losses over the next two years, and this is meantto shield the ailing car maker against a weak economy or against unexpected events.

NYMEX (NMX) fell 5% to $125.51 after Prudential started the stock coverage with an underweight rating.

ValueClick (VCLK) fell almost 2% to $23.55 after Citigroup downgraded its rating from Buy to hold.

Xerox (XRX) fell 1.7% to $16.34 after it confirmed a NYT story that it had designed some erasable ink paper for reuse.

Sony (SNE) fell 2.4% $38.68 after reports surfaced that more systematic problems were hitting the Sony PS3 just 2 weeks within its launch dates.

Altria (MO) fell 0.3% to $83.50 even after it had the Supreme Court say it wouldn’t consider reinstating a ruling against the company, yet it fell  along with a crummy market.

Affiliated Computer (ACS) fell 1% to $50.25 after its CEO and CFO both fell

Swift Transport (SWFT) rose 2.7% to $28.36 after rejecting the Moyes bid at $29.00 per share because the board and advisory committee felt it undervalued the company.

Sirius Satellite Radio (SIRI) fell 3% to $4.12 after Banc of America said its sales were lagging, although Cramer said it was too soon to make that call.

Jon C. Ogg
November 27, 2006

Posted on: November 27, 2006 – 4:07 pm in Uncategorized

Market Muted On Philip Morris

When the Supreme Court backs a $10.1 judgment billion in a company’s favor, the stock should rise. But, in refusing to reinstate a judgment against the tobacco giant, the tobacco company’s parent, Altria, would appear to have gotten an important victory.

The market is cautious about the news. There is another suit brewing, for as much as $200 billion. The action claims that the marketing of "light "cigarettes was a charade meant to fool smokers into thinking the the lower tar butts were safer. The issue of whether the plaintiffs can turn it into a class action suit is still pending.

There has been some euphoria among investors about Altria’s ability to consistently ward off liability suits regarded the safety of cigarettes and what the company knew about the effects of smoking. But, with each new year, another set of claims emerges and the question becomes will one of these eventually break through. If so, Altria’s stock may not continue its stupendous climb.

Douglas A. McIntyre can be reached at douglasamcintyre@247wallst.com. He does not own securities in companies that he writes about.

Posted on: November 27, 2006 – 3:41 pm in Uncategorized

Cramer on STOP TRADING: wait CROX, no WMT, GOOG, buy SIRI

by Jon C. Ogg

On today’s STOP TRADING segment on CNBC, Jim Cramer made some retailing stock picks on how to play them today.  Cramer noted Crocs (CROX).  The insiders and everyone have been unloading and he said this is worrisome until it finds its footing.  He said CROX diverged from fundamentals because of short squeezes.

On Wal-Mart (WMT) Cramer said that it is a very big management issue and they are a lousy economic indicator.  He said that the people selling TV’s at Wal-Mart cannot attract high-end buyers because this needs expertise.  he said it is a useless depressing place to shop.

He said the  General Growth (GGP) and Sears (SHLD) are good for real estate plays.

On Google (GOOG) Cramer with its down $15 or 3% today said that Barron’s is full of it.  He thinks it can go higher, and a breather is fine.

Cramer said Banc of America’s research on Sirius Satellite (SIRI) being weak is wrong and the negative call is premature.  He said even if it ends up being true ultimately it is too soon to say subscriber growth is weaker than expected and he thinks SIRI is a Buy.

Jon C. Ogg
November 27, 2006

Posted on: November 27, 2006 – 2:46 pm in Cramer

MMI Investments Discloses 6% Stake in Unisys (UIS)

From 13D Tracker

In a 13D filing this morning on Unisys Corporation (NYSE: UIS), MMI Investments disclosed a 6% stake (20.6 million shares) in the company.

In a standard disclosure, the firm said they made the purchase for investment purposes and may communicate with the Issuer’s management, directors and other shareholders in the future. The firm said it has no current plan or proposal that relates to or would result in any of the transactions or other matters specified in clauses (a) through (j) of Item 4 of Schedule 13D.

The firm said the total purchase price of its 20,621,700 shares was $133,727,480.

http://www.13dtracker.blogspot.com/

Posted on: November 27, 2006 – 12:41 pm in Uncategorized

EXX Inc (EXX.a) Discloses 9% Stake in All American Semiconductor (SEMI)

From 13D Tracker

In a 13D filing on All American Semiconductor, Inc. (Nasdaq: SEMI), EXX Inc. (Amex: EXX.A) (Amex: EXX-B) disclosed a 9.02% stake (361K shares) in the company.

EXX said it purchased the Shares based on the belief that the Shares, when purchased, were undervalued and represented an attractive investment opportunity.

In a press release on the positon, EXX said it, "hopes to consult with All American’s management and Board of Directors to determine if EXX can be of assistance to All American and thereby increase shareholder value."

EXX said the aggregate purchase price of the 360,773 shares was $1,108,246.

http://www.13dtracker.blogspot.com/

Posted on: November 27, 2006 – 12:40 pm in Uncategorized

Xerox Erasable Paper Could Assault Paper & Forestry Companies

Stock Tickers: XRX, IP, KMB, UPM, AVY, MWV, TIN

Xerox Corporation (XRX-NYSE) scientists have invented a way to make prints whose images last only a day, so that the paper can be used again and again.  While the New York Times covered this today, Xerox has issued a press release confirming the data. It could have serious ramifications for the paper and forestry sector.

The technology is still in a preliminary state, but it could blur the line between paper documents and digital displays and could ultimately lead to a significant reduction in paper use for many temporary print-outs.  I have historically had about 10 documents per day that I would print out for reference, but the shelf life is that day only. For larger organizations this could generate far more in savings.

This experimental project is collaboration between the Xerox Research Centre of Canada and PARC (Palo Alto Research Center Inc.). Xerox estimates that as many as two out of every five pages printed in the office are for what it calls "daily" use, like e-mails, Web pages and reference materials that have been printed for a single viewing.

Paper and forestry companies are mostly lower on the day, but some of it is likely attributed to a weak market today.

International Paper (IP) $32.40, down 1.4%

Kimberly-Calrk (KMB) $65.95, down 0.5%

UPM-Kymmene (UPM/ADR) $24.67, down 0.95%

Avery Dennison (AVY) $67.32, down 0.9%

MeadWestVaco (MWV) $29.20, down 0.05%

Temple-Inland (TIN) $38.92, down 0.8%

The paper and forestry industry has been under fire for years from numerous angles, and this could be just one more of a few dozen steps that would actually gear a computerized world to at least trim some of its paper use.  You can be assured that there will still be paper in the years to come, but these guys have been assaulted from more angles than they probably care to mention.

Jon C. Ogg
November 27, 2006

Posted on: November 27, 2006 – 12:24 pm in Uncategorized

Interactive Brokers Files For IPO

This morning there was a substantial IPO filing, that of Interactive Brokers. It has decided to take the proposed NASDAQ ticker "IBKR."

Ib_logo_1

This is one that has been thought of as one of the great ones to come to market whenever it comes, and now they have grown a core mass of fairly active retail trading accounts.  They are a low cost trading provider for online trading of options, futures, forex, stocks, and bonds on 60 markets worldwide.  Institutional Investor ranked IB the 16th largest U.S. securities firm in 2005.

Their distinct advantage to other brokerage firms is the instant access that traders can get to the global markets.  Their systems are deemed a bit behind other platforms on a historical basis, but they have supposedly taken numerous steps and have gone through numerous upgrades to rectify this.  The prospectus says it has grown to approximately 77,000 institutional and individual brokerage customers.

It has listed W.R. Hambrecht and E*Trade as the underwriters for the offering, so this may be part of the OpenIPO(R) format we have recently noted.

The company claims to process approximately 500,000 trades per day and has about 500 employees.  During 2005 and for the nine months ended September 30, 2006, it generated pretax income in each period at a rate of more than $1 million per employee.

Here is the latest metric:   According to data compiled by the Futures Industry Association (FIA) based on data received from exchanges worldwide, during the nine months ended September 30, 2006, it says it accounted for approximately 16.0% of exchange-listed equity options volume traded worldwide and approximately 18.8% of exchange-listed equity options volume traded on those markets they actively trade on.  It also said data pointed it as the number one or number two liquidity provider on each of the three largest U.S. options exchanges (the Chicago Board Options Exchange, the International Securities Exchange and the Philadelphia Stock Exchange) during the nine months ended September 30, 2006, according to rankings provided by those exchanges.  As a market maker, it says it provids continuous bid and offer quotations on approximately 324,000 securities and futures products listed on electronic exchanges around the world.

It has also made inroads as a smaller institutional player and acts as a prime broker on top of its regular trading for retail.  While its trades are nearly 500,000 per day it claims 196,000 daily average revenue trades (DART’s).

REVENUE: For the year ended December 31, 2005, IB’s total revenues were approximately $1.1 billion, as compared to approximately $621.7 million for the year ended December 31, 2004.  For the nine months ended September 30, 2006, its total revenues were approximately $1.3 billion, as compared to approximately $772.1 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2005. INCOME: income before income taxes was approximately $569.3 million for the year ended December 31, 2005 and approximately $599.9 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2006, as compared to approximately $290.0 million for the year ended December 31, 2004 and approximately $406.9 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2005.  It listed market making activities represented 79% of total revenues for the year ended December 31, 2005 and 78% of total revenues for the nine months ended September 30, 2006.  FINANCIALS: As of September 30, 2006, IB had equity capital of approximately $2.6 billion and our capital base grew organically at a CAGR of approximately 24% from December 2000 to September 2006. As of September 30, 2006, IB held $32.2 billion in total assets, approximately $32.0 billion, or 99%, of which were highly liquid and readily convertible to cash. As of September 30, 2006, IB’s long-term debt-to-equity ratio was 11%.

This deal is not without risk, as the filing is coming at a time when the DJIA is within sniffing distance of record highs.  It has also already seen a huge growth phase and this is one of the last of the decent-sized brokerage firms with easy brand recognition that has been holding out as a private company.  That being said, you can bet that this deal will have a lot of interest going in.  This OpenIPO(R) format is one that often gets a cold shoulder by the street, but we noted recently how much money was left on the table by NYMEX (NMX) on its IPO and that it sure makes a better argument for firms to use the OpenIPO(R) format.

We will be keeping up on this IPO as the financial terms become available.

Jon C. Ogg
November 27, 2006

More information can be found in the prospectus at the link below:
http://sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1381197/000104746906014485/a2174744zs-1.htm

Posted on: November 27, 2006 – 11:25 am in IPOs

BAIT SHOP Versus Barron’s on LBO Names

by Jon C. Ogg

Stock Tickers We Reviewed: ALTR, XLNX, KBH, WCI, DHI, LEN, HOV, TOL, VLO, AVP, BJ, COST, NKE, GPS.

This weekend Barron’s ran their "We are reporting on every buyout candidate too" story.  Most is based on what others are saying, so investors should know that these names have almost certainly already been sent out to private clients of each firm.

We have some thoughts on these, and after providing some of the names from the article you will see some of the commentary along with opinions and other data on some of the stocks.

Morgan Stanley strategist Henry McVey believes a $50 Billion leveraged buyout is possible. McVey says that some of the large companies that could possibly be taken private are:

Gap (GPS) (see comments below),
Micron Technology (MU),
Bed Bath & Beyond (BBY),
Nike (NKE) (see comments below),
Liz Claiborne (LIZ),
EMC (EMC),
Costco (COST) (see comments below)

The article also suggested that the LBO boom will continue and points out that Avon Products (AVP) has been the subject of buyout rumors as well. See comments below.

Christopher Ferrara, an analyst at Merrill Lynch, has Kimberly-Clark (KMB) and Estee Lauder (EL) at the top of his list; potential targets in the Energy sector include:
Apache (APA),
Valero Energy (VLO) (see comments below),
Hess (HES),
Transocean (RIG).

While nearly all of the home builders have been mentioned as buyout candidates, Barron’s listed (see comments below on whole group):
KB Home (KBH),
DR Horton (DHI),
Lennar (LEN),
Toll Brothers (TOL),
MDC (MDC),
Hovanian Enterprises (HOV)

Lastly in the Technology sector, CreditSights sees several chip and technology targets:
Linear Technology (LLTC),
Maxim Integrated (MXIM),
Analog Devices (ADI),
Altera (ALTR) (see comments below),
Xilinx (XLNX) (see comments below).

While the article is good in the sense that it is giving more names out there for potential plays, almost all of these have already been speculated on recently and many have been noted this way in the past.  These firms do not give this out to Barron’s before they send these to clients, and many of these names are almost on a “perma-buyout potential list” out there.

IF YOU WOULD LIKE TO RECEIVE THE REST OF THIS ARTICLE (8 paragraphs more with picks and commentary), PLEASE JOIN OUR FREE PRIVATE EMAIL DISTRIBUTION LIST:

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Jon C. Ogg
November 27, 2006

Posted on: November 27, 2006 – 10:06 am in Mergers and Buy Outs

RITA Medical Systems Rising on Higher Volume

From Volume Spike Investor

Shares of RITA Medical Systems(RITA) rose almost 3% on Friday as volume spiked 140% above the 3-month daily average.

There were no significant news releases or other significant events that could be detected.

RITA Medical engages in the development, manufacture, and marketing of products that use radiofrequency energy to treat patients with cancerous or benign tumors.

The company carries more debt ($9 million) than it holds in cash ($6 million).

Sales have been increasing substantially over the last three years, but net loss has not improved.

Shares of RITA Medical closed at $4, almost 14% away from the 52-week high of $4.65

RITA Medical Systems has made VSI’s Watch List.

http://www.vsinvestor.com/

Posted on: November 27, 2006 – 9:54 am in Uncategorized

A Closer Look at Five Biotech ETFs

From BioHealth Investor

For those investors not keen on spending countless hours pouring over financial statements and company profiles, not to mention the confusing scientific and technical jargon that biotech companies harbor in their annual reports, Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) may be the better choice for investing in the biotechnology industry.

There are currently five popular biotech ETFs, each differing by the number of stocks held and the indices mirrored.

The five are SPDR Biotech ETF (XBI), PowerShares Dynamic Biotech & Genome (PBE), IShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB), First Trust AMEX Biotechnology (FBT), and finally the Biotech HOLDRs (BBH).

BBH holds the least number of stocks, currently at 18 as last reported by Yahoo!Finance. This is inadequate for an investor seeking a generalized representation of the biotech industry. 38% of the total holdings is taken up by Genentech (DNA) while another 25% is held in Amgen (AMGN). That is more than 60% held in only two stocks! While biotechs held by BBH tend to be the largest in market cap of all the biotechs, there still remains much room for lowering the risk. Imagine if Genentech or Amgen suddenly drop in price, no matter the reason, BBH will take a much larger hit than the rest of the biotech ETFs.

While FBT also holds a small number of stocks, currently at 20 to mirror the AMEX Biotechnology Index, its assets are more evenly distributed. No more than 6% is held in any one stock. In fact the top 10 held stocks differ within a range of 1%. However, FBT carries riskier stocks in its top 10, such as Human Genome Sciences (HGSI) and Millennium Pharmaceuticals (MLNM) who both historically have not lived up to their potential.

IBB holds 176 total stocks, by far the most number of stocks of any biotech ETF. It follows the NASDAQ Biotechnology Index. Amgen takes up more than 15%, and is the top holding. The second top holding however is less than half with 6% held in Gilead Sciences (GILD). Even though this ETF holds some of the riskiest little biotech stocks on the market it is generally the safest investment as the risk is diluted substantially. IBB also accurately mirrors the entire publicly traded biotech industry as the NASDAQ holds almost the entire field of stocks. Investors however lose out on the father of biotech stocks, Genentech, as it currently does not trade on the NASDAQ. Investors could easily invest in Genentech stock separately if desired.

PBE is intriguing and is relatively new. It is intriguing because itstop 10 holdings are mixed, with larger capped big biotechs and smaller riskier ones. The top holdings include biotech stars such as Gilead Sciences, Amgen, and Genentech, while also carrying the smaller Human Genome Sciences and Bruker Biosciences (BRKR). PBE holds over 30 stocks in total and is an interesting way to invest in a moderately risky sample of the biotech industry.

Finally, there is XBI, which currently holds over 30 stocks and follows the S&P Biotechnology Industry Select Index. This ETF by far carries some of the best performing companies. Its top 10 holdings include such top performers as Cephalon (CEPH), Gilead Sciences, Celgene (CELG), and OSI Pharmaceuticals (OSIP). These are in addition to the biotech giants Genentech and Amgen. XBI makes a great biotech ETF for its quality holdings, and its risk distribution as the top holding is only 0.3% larger than the 10th holding.

Here is a quick look at the top 10 holdings in each:

SPDR Biotech ETF (XBI)
CEPHALON INC (CEPH) 3.83%
ALKERMES INC (ALKS) 3.69%
GILEAD SCIENCES (GILD) 3.66%
CELGENE CP (CELG) 3.63%
GENENTECH INC (DNA) 3.62%
AMGEN (AMGN) 3.55%
OSI PHARMACEUTIC (OSIP) 3.54%
ICOS CP (ICOS) 3.53%
BIOGEN IDEC INC (BIIB) 3.52%
VERTEX PHARMACEUT (VRTX) 3.50%

PowerShares Dynamic Biotech & Genome (PBE)
GILEAD SCIENCES (GILD) 5.25%
APPLERA CORP-APPLIED (ABI) 5.2%
WATERS CP (WAT) 5.17%
AMGEN (AMGN) 5.12%
SIGMA ALDRICH CP (SIAL) 5.08%
GENZYME CORPORATION (GENZ) 5%
GENENTECH INC (DNA) 4.99%
BIOGEN IDEC INC (BIIB) 4.87%
HUMAN GENOME SCI (HGSI) 2.95%
BRUKER BIOSCIENCES (BRKR) 2.94%

IShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB)
AMGEN (AMGN) 15.36%
GILEAD SCIENCES (GILD) 6.04%
CELGENE CP (CELG) 4.51%
TEVA PHARM INDS AD (TEVA) 3.91%
BIOGEN IDEC INC (BIIB) 3.51%
GENZYME CORPORATION (GENZ) 3.42%
VERTEX PHARMACEUT (VRTX) 2.66%
MEDIMMUNE INC (MEDI) 1.64%
SEPRACOR INC (SEPR) 1.53%
SHIRE PLC ADS (SHPGY) 1.49%

First Trust AMEX Biotechnology (FBT)
Myogen, Inc. 6.13%
HUMAN GENOME SCI (HGSI) 5.78%
ICOS CP (ICOS) 5.55%
PDL BIOPHARMA INC (PDLI) 5.52%
GILEAD SCIENCES (GILD) 5.46%
MEDIMMUNE INC (MEDI) 5.45%
GENENTECH INC (DNA) 5.03%
AMGEN (AMGN) 4.97%
BIOGEN IDEC INC (BIIB) 4.96%
GENZYME CORPORATION (GENZ) 4.93%

Biotech HOLDRs (BBH)
GENENTECH INC (DNA) 38.29%
AMGEN (AMGN) 25.38%
GILEAD SCIENCES (GILD) 11.52%
BIOGEN IDEC INC (BIIB) 6.71%
GENZYME CORPORATION (GENZ) 4.94%
APPLERA CORP-APPLIED (ABI) 3.51%
MEDIMMUNE INC (MEDI) 2.51%
SHIRE PLC ADS (SHPGY) 2.01%
SEPRACOR INC (SEPR) 1.62%
MILLENNIUM PHARM (MLNM) 0.73%

http://www.biohealthinvestor.com/

Posted on: November 27, 2006 – 9:51 am in Uncategorized

Pre-Market Stock Notes (Nov. 27, 2006)

(ACS) Affiliated Computer Systems announced its CEO & CFO had to leave over option impropriaties.
(AEZS) AEterna Zentaris announced positive Phase I results for AN-152 for patients with gynaecological and breast cancers.
(ASMI) AMS Int’l positive in barron’s.
(CNS) Cohen & Steers filed to sell 3.5M shares.
(ECIL) ECI Telecom may be in talks to be acquired by ADCT overseas.
(GOOG) Google reportedly reached copyright settlement in Belgium; noted cautiously in barron’s.
(MSFT) Microsoft is offering Vista already to many companies according to WSJ.
(PXLW) Pixelworks will be taking charges for restructuring.
(SCT) Scottish Re gets $600M investment in company from MassMutual and Cerberus.
(SNE) Sony trading lower on reports of many problems with PS3 units.
(SWFT) Swift has rejected the $29 buyout offer from Jerry Moyes as inadequate.
(TTIL) TTI Telecom CEO is stepping down.
(VRSN) SeriSign annoinced $52M acquisition of inCode Wireless.
(VTR) Ventas filed to sell $200M in convertible notes.
(WMT) Wal-Mart announced it sees s-s-s for NOV down -0.1%, first time of a negative in 10 years.
(XL) XL reported its CFO will retire in 2007.

by JON C. OGG

Posted on: November 27, 2006 – 8:28 am in Market Open

Ford’s Goes Into Hock

Ford sent a signal that its cash on hand may not be enough to cover its restructuring and flagging sales The company will borrow $18 billion. It is a bad sign.

Ford has wanted the market to believe that it could exist on as little as a 14% share in the US, and that billions in cost cuts would allow its North American operations to make money. But, bloated inventories have undermined the car company’s ability to get dealers to accept new cars. And, recent research reports indicate that US car sales may be well below forecasts in 2007. Ford’s shrinking share against a shrinking market spells double trouble for the No.2 US car maker.

Ford’s stock has made a small recovery on hopes that its new CEO and cost cuts can improve the company’s fortunes. Ford’s stock has gone from $6.19 in July to it present price of $8,50.

With this much debt on the way, the stock may not hold its gains.

Douglas A. McIntyre can be reached at douglasamcintyre@247wallst.com. He does not own securities in companies that he writes about.

Posted on: November 27, 2006 – 8:27 am in Uncategorized

Select Analyst Calls (Nov. 27, 2006)

by Jon C. Ogg

AAPL tgt raised to $110 at ThinkEquity.
ASTSF raised to Outperform at FBR.
ATRS raised to Overweight at JPMorgan.
AUDC raised to Buy at First Albany.
BVF started as Buy at Goldman Sachs.
CE added to Goldman Sachs conviction buy list.
CERN started as Buy at Merrill Lynch.
CN raised to Outperform at Credit Suisse.
FFIV reitr Outperform at Piper Jaffray.
HOT cut to Hold at AGEdwards.
HLT cut to Hold at AGEdwards.
HME cut to Underweight at RBC.
IAR startyed as Sell at Deutsche Bank.
ISRG started as Outperform at Cowen.
JCG cut to Sector Perform at CIBC.
LOW raised to Buy at B of A.
MAR cut to Hold at AGEdwards.
MPG cut to Neutral at Credit Suisse.
NDAQ reitr Outperform at FBR.
NIHD raised to Neutral at JPMorgan.
NMX started as Underweight at Prudential.
PTV cut to Neutral at B of A.
RHD raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank.
SAI started as Mkt Perform at Wachovia.
SLM started as Outperform at KBW.
SXE started as Outperform at Cowen; started as Buy at JPMorgan.
TRBN started as Buy at Lazard; started as Overweight at Morgan Stanley; started as Buy at B of A.
UCLP started as Buy at AGEDwards.
UDR raised to Sector Perform at RBC.
X cut to Hold at Soleil.

Posted on: November 27, 2006 – 8:17 am in Analyst Calls

Europe Markets 11/27/2006 BMW, DaimlerChryler, Siemens Down

Stocks:  (BCS)(BP)(BAB)(BT)(PUK)(GSK)(RTRSY)(VOD)(BAY)(DCX)(DT)(DB)(SI)(ALA)(AXA)(FTE)(V)

Markets iin Europe were down at 7.15 AM New York time.

The FTSE was off .5% to 6,093. BEA was down 3.7% to 388.5. Barclays was flat at 692. BP was down .2% to 573.5 British Air was down 1.5% to 486.25. BT was down .1% to 278.5. Prudential was down 1.1% to 653. GlaxoSmithKline was off .7% to 1338. Reuters was down .9% to 456.25. Vodafone was down .9% to 134.5.

The DAXX was off 1% to 6,353. BASF was down 1.4% to 69.69. Bayer was up 1.8% to 39.7. BMW was off 2.3% to 41.84. DaimlerChysler was off 2.4% to 44.46. DeutscheBank was down .9% to 99.53. Deutsche Telekom was down 1.2% to 13.52. Siemens was off 2.3% to 72.9.

The CAC 40 was down .6% to 5,359. Alcatel was off .4% to 10.16. AXA was down 1.1% to 29.22. France Telecom was down .6% to 19.86. ST Micro was down .4% to 13.97. Vivendi was was down .6% to 28.13.

Data from Reuters.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Posted on: November 27, 2006 – 7:19 am in International Markets

The Fifteen Most Overvalued Stocks: Starbucks (SBUX)

Starbucks growth continues to defy the laws of gravity. Revenue in its last reported quarter grew 21% as its total number of stores rose to over 12,000.

But, consumer spending and it huge footprint could be the company’s worst enemies. It has not gone through a recession with anywhere near the number of retail outlets it has now.

Other companies have also watched Starbucks and learned a lesson. McDonalds is now rolling out premium coffee. Success breds imitation.

According to Yahoo! Finance, Starbucks has a P/E of over 50. That does not leave much room if the company see slowing in same store sales, even for a month or two.

Investors have already show their concern about Starbucks last quarter by selling off the stock. It is a great company.

With no margin for error.

Douglas A. McIntyre can be reached at douglasamcintyre@247wallst.com. He does not own securities in companies that he writes about.

Posted on: November 27, 2006 – 5:05 am in Uncategorized

Did Detroit Cut Enough

Stocks:  (GM)(F)(DCX)(TM)

GM says it has cut $9 billion in annual costs. Ford is working on lowering expenses by over $5 billion a year. Daimler has sent German executives to the US to try to take $1,000 in expenses out of every Chysler vehicle. Inventories for The Big Three are so high that dealers do not want to take new cars, even the 2007 models.

Now, industry analysts are worried that 2007 annual car sales could fall well below estimates from GM and Toyota. The two big car companies are forecasting US sales next year at 16.5 million.

Trouble in the US housing market, especially in big states like Californian, could cut sales to 16.2 million units, according to some industry experts.

Toyota may be effected because California is a key sales territory in the US. But, the Japanese car giant has the financial resources to weather the trouble.

If sales slow, the company that may be hurt the most is Ford. There is already talk of its bankruptcy. The company itself is saying market share in the US could drop as low as 14%. But, what if that share is of a shrinking market.

Ford execs may have to go back to the drawing board once again.

Douglas A. McIntyre can be reached at douglasamcintyre@247wallst.com. He does not own securities in companies that he writes about.

Posted on: November 27, 2006 – 4:51 am in Uncategorized