Monthly Archives: November 2006

Cramer sys print buyers should really be buying McGraw Hill (MHP)

Cramer on MAD MONEY also said McGraw Hill (MHP) may be the only print media company to own.  The other media decline in newspapers is Secular and will be ongoing and persistent, but MHP is diversified out of printing now.  That makes it more appealing to any fund that wants print exposure.  He said that with funds and Private Equity and billionares wanting to buy the New York Times (NYT), Tribune (TRB), and Dow Jones (DJ)….that means people should be buying MHP.

These buyers could get a better return buying MHP according to Cramer.  MHP closed down 0.9% at $66.65, but rose to $67.23 after his touting; its 52-week trading range is $46.37 to $67.43.  Cramer also pointed out that DJ & NYT aren’t really public companies because the dual class structure maes the non-public shares actually in control for the families that floated the common shares.

Well, he is going on more on this but this enough talking about this one.

Jon C. Ogg
November 30, 2006

Posted on: November 30, 2006 – 6:21 pm in Uncategorized

Cramer Says Denny’s is a Grand Slam

On tonight’s MAD MONEY on CNBC, Jim Cramer discussed Denny’s (DENN) as a Buy.  He said it is a name you want to own.  He said they have made a turn, and please note he said this earlier last week or the week before when he said it was going to $6.00.  This stock closed as $4.58 today, and was up at $4.71 (almost 3%) after he began touting the stock.  Cramer noted that when he brings on CEO you need to listen.  Cramer had DENN’s CEO on back on the 15th and replayed it: "in the midst of refinancing debt and should get it resolved this quarter…."

Cramer said they had been selling stores topay debt but now they don’t need to sell off the other 21 stores because they are operating better.  Cramer again said he thinks it is going to $6.00.  The street hasn’t caught on the Refinancing angle and they are changing their model to going to more of a franchise model.

Jon C. Ogg
November 30, 2006

Posted on: November 30, 2006 – 6:08 pm in Cramer

Motorola Doubles Down On WiMax

Stocks:  (CMCSA)(VZ)(INTC)(MOT)

Late word is that Motorola’s investment arm will put substantial money into WiMax chip maker Sequans Communications. The chips are used in the wireless network structure.

The investment is another sign that Motorola, Samsung, and Intel (which put $600 million into WiMax firm Clearwire) are pushing for national WiMax networks here and abroad. Sprint is in the process of spending $3 billion to build a US network for its 4G phone service.

WiMax could turn the broadband industry on its head. Intel is actively promoting the technology in places like India where there is no broadband infrastructure.

If WiMax lives up to its early successes in places like Korea, the technology could give companies like Comcast and Verizon fits in the US.

Douglas A. McIntyre can be reached at douglasamcintyre@247wallst.com. He does not own securities in companies that he writes about.

Posted on: November 30, 2006 – 4:16 pm in Uncategorized

US Stock market Wrap (NOV 30, 2006)

DJIA    12,221.93; Down 4.80 (0.04%)
NASDAQ    2,431.77; Down 0.46 (0.02%)
S&P500    1,400.65; Up 1.17 (0.08%)
10YR-Bond    4.458%     Down 0.063
NYSE Volume    3,287,570,000
NASD Volume    1,999,605,000

The market digested a Chicago Purchasing managers reading under estimates and under the 50.0 reading (signalling economic slowing) for the first time since April of 2003.  It also saw natural gas inventories fall some 32 billion cubic feet because of the sideways coldfront dumping snow across the central US and expected to hit the eastern seaboard this weekend.

Nortel (NT) experienced huge trading before it went ex-split to reflect a 1 for 10 reverse stock spli; NT closed flat at $2.15 on 67 million shares.

GM (GM) fell almost 1% to $29.22 after Kerkorian sold out of the rest of his position.

Lucent (LU) dominated trading as it become Alcatel-Lucent (ALU) tomorrow closing up $0.01, but on some 318 million shares.  Bye bye LU.

Netflix (NFLX) traded up 0.3% to $29.28 after word that it would get a 60-minutes special.

Thestreet.com (TSCM) traded up 11% to $9.78 the day after it terminated radio pact to focus on WEB-TV on thestreet.com website.

Ingram Micro (IM) fell almost 1% to $20.38 despite reaffirming guidance.

Pfizer (PFE) rose 1.5% to $27.49 after the DJIA component raised guidance from $2.00 street estimates to $2.05 and target high single-digit EPS growth for 2007 & 2008.

Digital Insight (DGIN) rose 15% to $38.15 after Intuit (INTU) acquired the company for $39.00 per share.

IAC/Inteactive (IACI) rose 1.3% to $36.49 ahead of being added to the S&P 500 Index today.

Research in Motion (RIMM) rose 3.5% to $138.83 after Goldman Sachs became the highest US brokerage target at $170 today.

Wal-Mart (WMT) fell another 1.7% to $46.10 after lowering December forecasts to flat to +1% for same store sales.

Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) fell only 3% to $67.44 after same store sales showed a 3% drop instead of a gain.

American Eagle Outfitters (AEOS) fell 3.7% to $45.18 after posting 14% s-s-s gains, but the street was a tad higher.

Time Warner (TWX) fell 0.8% to $20.16 after Bear Stearns cut the media sector to a Market perform ahead of 2007.

Sharper Image (SHRP) fell 1.8% to $9.69 as sales were down over 20% at same store sales.

Pier One (PIR) fell 2% to $6.65 after same store sales fell 15%.

Jon C. Ogg
November 30, 2006

Posted on: November 30, 2006 – 4:13 pm in Market Close

Cramer Says the Healthcare Rally Has Begun

On today’s STOP TRADING segment on CNBC, Jim Cramer went over a trade for a lesser-known name.

He said the big wide bottom in healthcare is here.  Wellpoint (WLP) and Cardinal (CAH) will win.  He said J&J (JNJ), Amgen (AMGN), Humana (HUM) and Celgene (CELG) are also too cheap and not done going up.

Cramer then reviewed Zumiez (ZUMZ) as sticking with a sell, but he likes Nike (NKE).

He also said techs and oils are going higher.

Jon C.Ogg
November 30, 2006

Posted on: November 30, 2006 – 2:47 pm in Cramer

NYSE Braces for a Post-Nortel and Post-Lucent Trading World

Stock Tickers: NYX, ALA, LU, NT, CIEN, JDSU

The NYSE (NYX-NYSE) is gearing up for a reverse split on Nortel Networks (NT) and gearing up for a combined merger of Alcatel (ALA) and Lucent (LU).  This translates into the most likely scenario that traders and investors will inadvertently put their trading volume away from those names and towards other stocks.

Kissing Nortel Goodbye

Investors are gearing up for tomorrow’s reverse stock split when Nortel (NT) will trade reflecting its 1 for 10 reverse stock split.  When you walk in to work and see NT indicating up in the $20’s, don’t be fooled into thinking a private equity firm came in and made an outrageous bid.

A reverse stock split is the same sort of corporate trickery and chicanery that others have ventured on in the past, and the same sort of swap that JDS Uniphase (JDSU) and Ciena (CIEN) have recently embarked on.  This isn’t meant to be mean to companies, but it is a token warning for investors who don’t want to stand in the way of some serious trading around these events. 

Lucent Turns French

The real loser in this is ultimately going to be the NYSE itself.  It isn’t so much that it is losing just NT trading volume, but the pending merger has closed and the combined Alcatel-Lucent will trade tomorrow under the new ticker "ALU."

The new company Alcatel-Lucent is incorporated in France with executive offices located in Paris. The company will be traded on Euronext Paris and the NYSE from December 1st, 2006 under a new common ticker (Euronext Paris & NYSE: ALU). As a result of the merger, each outstanding share of Lucent common stock has been converted into the right to receive 0.1952 of an Alcatel ADS. In connection with the merger, Alcatel has issued approximately 878 million shares, which is equivalent to the total number of ADS to be issued to the holders of Lucent common stock. Following the completion of the merger, approximately 2.31 billion ordinary shares of Alcatel-Lucent are outstanding.

NYSE Braces for Volume Changes

Nortel (NT) trades on average about 24.5 million shares per day, and has traded 48 million shares today.  Alcatel (ALA) trades only about 3.4 million shares on an average day, and has traded about 22 million shares so far today.  Lucent (LU) trades 41 million shares on average, but has traded over 200 million shares today.  Almost every day these two companies trade in the top 5 as far as total NYSE trading volume as far as number of shares changing hands, and now the NYSE is going to see two of the most active share names drop off the immediate radar from much of the US trading public.  Part will be based on price and part will be the non-US domicile.  That is unfortunate but more than likely the truth.

This doesn’t mean the change will go into effect immediately because many traders and investors will have to play catch-up.  But the volume in such names usually does change in a fairly short time period.  The drop in volume certainly doesn’t mean volume will go to zero, but on just a nominal basis the combined ALU “could ultimately trim off about 25 million shares or more per day if there is no new specific focalization plan out of the combined company (Alcatel-Lucent) and the NYSE.  Coupled with a direct share to share comparison for Nortel potentially losing say 20 million shares, the NYSE could theoretically see 45 million or so shares less on an average trading day.  This is roughly 2% of the share count of you just round to the nearest number.

This 45 million share loss is an estimate only and shouldn’t be used as gospel.  If you pretend that it is an exact number for calculations this probably won’t be noticed at all on active news days but will be felt on dead days when those are the only two that traders are still hitting the Buy and Sell buttons on their trading screens.

Jon C. Ogg
November 30, 2006

Below is a 6-month chart (from Bigcharts.com) showing how both JDSU & CIEN have traded since announcing and after their reverse splits, and there is a relative performance to the NASDAQ as well.
Cien_jdsu_chart

Posted on: November 30, 2006 – 2:33 pm in Exchange News

Detroit Ostrich Farm: Ford Sales To Drop

One of Ford’s (F) senior executives told the press that its share of the US market would drop from its current 17% to as low as 14% next year. Ford has been tempering expectations for its turnaround for some time. But, this was a company that had a 26% share ten years ago, well after Japanese cars hit the US market.

Ford pointed out that the recent trend that saw pick-up and SUV sales bounce up was due to incentives more than the fall in gas prices. It also said the part of the drop in its share was based on stepping away from unprofitable fleet sales. Wall St. has to wonder why Ford stepped into that business to begin with.

Unfortunately, Ford is not talking anything UP. As time passes, the pessimism about the company’s future becomes almost palpable. At many other companies, management tempers expectations so that they can be reached or exceeded. At Ford, expectations are merely lowered so that they can be lowered further later.

Ford’s need to borrow $18 million is another sign that things are not going well. The company’s current cash balance of $23.6 billion (September 30 10-Q) would be adequate to get the automaker through its "Way Forward" restructuring.

But, that would be too much to ask.

Douglas A. McIntyre can be reached at douglasamcintrye@247wallst.com. He does not own securities in companies that he writes about.

Posted on: November 30, 2006 – 12:39 pm in Uncategorized

Bear Stearns Takes Media Names Down; A Silver Lining for Digital Media

Stock Tickers: NWS, DIS, VIA, TWX, GOOG, YHOO, AQNT, DRIV, DTAS, TFSM, CNET

This morning we are seeing weakness in media stocks as Bear Stearns lowered its sector rating from MARKET OVERWEIGHT to MARKET WEIGHT.  Here are some excerpts (the "we" comments means "Bear Stearns"):  YTD in ‘06, the MEDIA group is up 22% vs. +11% for the S&P 500. We have been bullish on the sector….. We also posited the Street would start to view technology as a positive driver rather than just purely a risk….We argued these factors would drive improved ROIC and multiple expansion…..Now that multiples have expanded, we think positive Street sentiment masks some very real challenges facing the entertainment stocks…..

We identify 3 issues that we think will limit sector outperformance in 2007: 
1. Long Tail. Incumbent creators of content will see slowing growth and market share losses to user generated content over the long run. Although this trend is unlikely to affect near term earnings, this could influence sentiment on entertainment stocks. 
2. Renewed M&A Cycle…History suggests that new more nimble competitors will emerge and that incumbents are unlikely to be able to compete organically and will need to acquire…..may dampen ROIC. 
3. Shift Happens. Advertising executives suggest marketers’ will 
accelerate their shift of ad spend away from traditional media to digital 
platforms in 2007. Digital today makes up about 10% of most ad budgets. Our 
contacts suggest this could Double in the next 24 months at the expense of 
traditional media. 

Net-net, we think these issues and strong performance in 2006 will moderate stock appreciation in 2007 for the group. As a result, we are lowering our sector rating from Market Overweight to Market Weight.  Bear Stearns expects that News Corp (NWS), Time Warner (TWX), and Disney (DIS) will be Market Performers; and Viacom (VIA) listed as the outperformer….Bear expects the "market perform" names to be in-line with S&P 500 Index performance: Bear Stearns however does not envision significant downside in entertainment stocks at this stage.

News Corp (NWS) had dipped to negative but shares are now up 0.35% at $21.44.  Time Warner (TWX) fell to over 1% down but now down 0.75% at $20.18.  Disney (DIS) had dipped to negative but shares are now up 0.25% at $32.97.  Viacom (VIA) had been negative all day, but are now up $0.02 to $37.75.

The silver lining here is in the expectations for online ad spending and the ramifications for everything all-digital:  Digital today makes up about 10% of most ad budgets. "Our" (Bear’s) contacts suggest this could Double in the next 24 months at the expense of traditional media.  This is the sort of things that online ad-dependent giants to the tune of Google (GOOG), Yahoo! (YHOO), CNET (CNET), Digital River (DRIV), Digitas (DTAS), 24/7 Real Media (TFSM), Aquantive (AQNT), and many others.

You will have to determine for yourself if you believe the projections in the note and trust the data.  Now time will tell if this all pans out and if it works out this way.  At least there is some more street forecasting and formal expectations of digital versus traditional ad spending for the coming years.

Jon C. Ogg
November 30, 2006

Posted on: November 30, 2006 – 11:16 am in Analyst Calls, Internet, Old Media

Simple Cross-Market Momentum

From Mebane Faber of World Beta

Below I will present a simple quantitative method that exploits momentum in relative returns across a wide set of asset classes. The strategy is examined since 1972 in an allocation framework utilizing a combination of diverse and publicly traded asset class indices including US Stocks (S&P 500), Foreign Stocks (MSCI EAFE), Commodities (GSCI), REITs (NAREIT), Cash (90-Day Commercial Paper), and United States Government Bonds (10-Year Treasury Bonds).


The most simple measure of momentum I can think of (and the one cited in the GS primer) is trailing 12-month absolute returns. To make matters even simpler, and improve the tax consequences, the system will only update once every year at year end. You begin with a simple ranking of absolute performance – the example to the right is year end 1980:

Your holdings for the next year would be ranked in that order, with US Stocks at the top, and Bonds at the bottom. How has this simple ranking performed? From 1973 (Had to use 1972 at the first year for ranking) through 2005, and equal weighted portfolio of the 6 asset classes above, rebalanced yearly would have returned a respectable 11.16% p.a.

However, as evidenced in the chart below, the top performing asset class (#1) had a one-year subsequent performance of 18.73%. Almost a doubling of annual return, albeit with much more volatility and a higher negative year. #2, #3 etc all represent the following years performance for the #2, #3 best ranked absolute performance. ie in 1980, the #3 best performer was foreign stocks (MSCI EAFE) at 24.43%. You would then be long MSCI EAFE in the #3 bucket for 1981. . .It is interesting to note that buckets 4-6 all underperform the portfolio, evidence of momentum on the downside as well.

If you can’t read the Table, here is a chart of the returns. . .While it is not the perfect stairstep down one would prefer, you do see the general trend of declining returns from bucket #1 to bucket #2.
Although 18.73% returns are spectacular, some investors might not be able to handle the risk involved in investing in only one asset class. The Top 2 and Top3 portfolios (holding the top 2 and top 3 asset classes, equally weighted) each outperform the benchmark (labelled "All" in the chart) on both an absolute and risk adjusted basis.

The optimum risk-adjusted portfolio is the Top 3 asset portfolio, returning over 250 bps more than the equal weighted with slightly higher volatility, and only 2 down years since 1973 – and a worst year of only -(3.64)%.

$100 invested in the 6 asset class portfolio would be worth $3003.03 year end 2005, while $100 invested in the Top1 strategy would be worth $17,333.15.

Example ETFs reflecting the asset classes discussed in article are:

Posted by Mebane Faber

http://worldbeta.blogspot.com/

Posted on: November 30, 2006 – 11:13 am in Analyst Calls

Central Fund of Canada Sells Shares to Buy Gold & Silver

Stock Tickers: CEF, GLD

Central Fund of Canada Limited (CEF-AMEX; CEF-A/TSX) of Calgary, Alberta announced today that it plans to offer Class A Shares to the public in Canada and the United States under its existing US$250,000,000 base shelf prospectus filed with the securities commissions (US/Canada) to a proposed underwritten offering by CIBC World Markets Inc.  The real offering is 7.2 million shares that priced at $9.40 for total proceeds of $67.68 million.

Substantially all of the net proceeds of the offering have been committed "TO BUY GOLD & SILVER BULLION," with additional capital being used to reduce annual expense ratios. Any additional capital raised by any such offering is expected to reduce the operating expense ratio. 

The US equivalent market cap of this Canadian "fund" is $946 million.  Shares closed at $10.01 yesterday and have a $6.08 to $10.64 trading range over the last 52-weeks.  The low for the day is $9.45 and the last price seen was $9.70.  This "fund" traded at under $4.00 back in 2002 and is within 10% of decade highs.

As this capital is being used to buy bullion, it makes you wonder where they think gold and silver prices are going from here.  Even with gold at these levels, they are betting it is going even higher.  We overlayed a chart comparing CEF to the STREETTRACKS Gold Trust (GLD) for comparison here:

Gld_to_cef

Central Fund of Canada Limited (est. 1961) is an exchange tradeable refined gold and silver bullion holding company. Class A shares are qualified for inclusion in many North American regulated accounts. Bullion holdings are stored on an unencumbered, allocated, segregated and insured basis in the treasury vaults of a major Canadian bank and are audited semi-annually in the presence of Central Fund’s auditors and bank representatives.

Jon C. Ogg
November 30, 2006

Posted on: November 30, 2006 – 10:20 am in Uncategorized

Maybe Google’S Free Stuff Ain’t So Great

Stocks: (GOOG)(YHOO)

Google shut down its Google Answers service. Yahoo! still has its competing service which has provided 160 million answer since last December. Google’s product charged a nominal fee, which may be what it didn’t work.

Google may be hitting an inflection point now. With huge success in its text ad business, it has experimented with a number of new businesses. Google Video, which has been enhanced by the YouTube purchase. Google Earth, GMail. Blogger. Picasa, it photo sharing service. It’s new spreadsheets and docmuments product to compete with Windows.Google Checkout to compete with Ebay Paypal (that has been a big success). Google Finance. And, a few more.

They can’t all work. Eric Schmidt, Google’s CEO, is a businessman. He has run other companies. He knows when to take a loss and walk away. And, it is becoming increasingly evident that some of the initiatives are broken.

Google probably needs to have its own e-mail and chat platforms. Blogger seems to be the world’s No. 1 blogging platform, but its only source of income would appear to be the Google text ads that run on most blogs. So, perhaps those things stay.

But, products like Google Finance and Picasa are simply failures. Google Finance cannot be found on the Nielsen ratings for the top financial sites. Several services are ahead of Picasa. They range from Yahoo!’ Flickr to independents like Photobucket.

Google has shut down Answers. Investors should hope that a few other losers go soon as well.

Douglas A. McIntyre can be reached at douglasamcintyre@247wallst.com. He does not own securities in companies that he writes about.

Posted on: November 30, 2006 – 9:51 am in Internet

Is Wal-Mart Setting Themselves Up For a Break-up?

Wal-Mart (WMT) is trading down almost another 1% after forecasting December same-store-sales as Flat to +1%.  This is better than the -0.1% now forecast in November, but at the same time it is a far cry from the old standard party line of +1% to +3% that had become habitual.

"Factors impacting our December comparable-store sales estimate include the impact of the hurricanes from last year and continued challenges in our apparel and home business," Chief Financial Officer Tom Schoewe said in a statement. "We expect to see improvements in our apparel and home categories by spring."

What is odd is that this has to include the effects of all the cheap cuts they made on so many products, including those plasma TV’s, computers, MP3 players, electronics, toys, and food.

CNBC’s David faber just commented something to the tune of "I just have to wonder when the street will call for this company to be broken up…," and you may think this is blasphemy.  We have, however, seen this before where a company just gets too big and too dominant to effectively be managed.  It is even harder when management is still only less-hated by consumer activists and media than a year ago. 

Back in the first quarter of the 1900’s Great Atlantic & Pacific Tea Inc. (GAP-NYSE) had reached some unbelievable count of 10,000 stores (in the 1920’s) using an "Economy Store" format.  It had opened more than 15,000 stores by 1930, but hard times were setting (a.k.a. The Great Depression) in and effectively managing logistics for a scale that large proved impossible.  After a converting to supermarkets came in for more efficiency they had widdled down to less than 5000 stores by the mid-1950’s.  It now has under 500 large stores.

Wal-Mart is losing out to target (TGT) and to Costco (COST) and others as consumers are getting past the "always the lowest prices" to more of a "I want low prices, but I really want what I want more than that crud you are trying to sell me" and as the consumer shopping experience there is just miserable.  Consumer activists might be harsher on the company than they should be considering we live in America, but the potential quasi-break-up could be starting in the formative stages.  At a minimum you could at least see a management break-up; and if so the company needs to bring in someone that can convey a "Nice & Fun" message rather than "The message from Darth Vader today is……"

You have to take dividends into consideration, but the chart says it all:

Wmt_5_yr_chart_nov_30_06My partner and I each decided to do a piece on this without seeing each other’s work to do a test, so please excuse any overlaps.

Jon C. Ogg
November 30, 2006

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Posted on: November 30, 2006 – 9:49 am in Uncategorized

Wal-Mart’s No Win

Stocks:  (WMT)(BBY)(TGT)

Retail sales for Wal-Mart may be flat on a same-store basis in December. So says the company.

Other chains had mixed results in November. Target beat Wall St.’s target with 5.9% same-store numbers. Costco was undercut, at 5% with 5.8% as the expected number.

Not much news here, but a lot of fruit for analysis.

What happened to Wal-Mart? No one has an adequate answer. Does it have too many stores and the saturation means that each store steal sales from the next? Is the competition to good? Target? Best Buy? Costco? Even Amazon?

Maybe the stores are too ugly and too down-scale. The company has been trying to fix that, but with no positive result so far. Or, maybe the management is crummy.

Lee Scott, WMT CEO, took over in early 2000. The company’s stock record over the last five years has been awful. WMT’s shares are off 15%. The S&P is up over 25%. Best Buy is up 80%. Target is up over 50%.

Scott has blundered, badly. He started with the world largest retailer. The company was growing at a terrific rate. But around 2002/2003, it slow down.

Management has done well at Wal-Mart. Nice pay. No results.

Douglas A. McIntyre can be reached at douglasamcintyre@247wallst.com. He does not own shares in companies that he writes about.

Look for Jon Ogg’s WMT piece above.

Posted on: November 30, 2006 – 9:30 am in Uncategorized

XM Gets An Edge

Stocks:  (XMSR)(SIRI)

Honda will install 650,000 XM Satellite radios in its American Honda 2007 cars. The company installed 550,000 last year.

While it is hard to say how many of these will become long-term subcribers, the announcement comes at a time when XM desperately needs a boost.

XM’s sales growth has trailed rival Sirius this year, and some analysts believe that the trend could continues with Sirius gaining. While XM’s shares have outperformed Sirius’ for the last three month, they are still up only a little over 5%. Maybe the car industry can give them a push.

Douglas A. McIntyre can be reached at douglasamcintyre@247wallst.com. He does not own securities in companies that he writes about.

Posted on: November 30, 2006 – 8:57 am in Large Cap Stocks

Could Reuters Go Private?

Stocks:  (RTRSY)(DJ)(NYT)(MS)(TRB)

There has been a good deal of speculation lately that The New York Times or Dow Jones could go private. Former AIG chief, Hank Greenberg, may be vying to buy NYT outright. The rumors are apparently not true, but other investors like Morgan Stanley are pushing for a deal to "unlock" shareholder value.

The Tribune Company is being picked over by private equity firms, and Dutch media company VNU has already been sold to private interests for 7.5 billion euros.

Well, what about Reuters? It is at the end of a restructuring. Its stock has moved up in the last two years, but not any more than the S&P 500. Last year, Reuters had operating income of $378 million on revenue of $4.3 billion. And, operating income is 3.4x interest due on debt.

Reuters has a market capitalization of about $12 billion. SunGard Data, a firm with several businesses like Reuters’, went private last year for $11.4 billion.

If private equity loves tech and media so much, it kind of makes one wonder.

Douglas A. McIntyre can be reached at douglasamcintyre@247wallst.com. He does not own securities in companies that he writes about.

Posted on: November 30, 2006 – 8:34 am in Mergers and Buy Outs

Pre-Market Stock Notes (Nov 30, 2006)

(AEOS) American Eagle outfitters s-s-s +14%.
(ANN) Ann Taylor s-s-s -4.3%.
(BEBE) Bebe Stores NOV s-s-s +5.8%.
(CACH) Cache NOV s-s-s +5%.
(CBK) Christopher & Banks NOV s-s-s -8%.
(CTR) Cato s-s-s -6% in NOV.
(DELL) Dell signed Samsung for 27" LCD panel supply pact.
(DF) Dean Foods increased share buyback by $300M.
(DGIN) Digital Insight being acquired by Intuit for some $39 per share.
(DSW) DSW $0.36 EPS vs $0.26e.
(FEIC) FEI Corp will have 8+ million shares sold by Philips Electronics.
(FINL) Finish Line s-s-s -3.3%, sees current quarter losses slightly narrower than expected.
(FRED) Fred’s NOV s-s-s -2%.
(FRK) Florida Rock $0.80 EPS vs $0.75e.
(GES) Guess NOV s-s-s +12.1%.
(GPS) Gap Stores s-s-s -8% in NOV.
(HNZ) Heinz $0.59 EPS vs $0.60e.
(IM) Ingram Micro reaffirmed guidance.
(JOSB) Jos. A. Banks NOV s-s-s +9.6%.
(JWN) Nordstroms +5% s-s-s in NOV.
(LTD) Limited NOV s-s-s +12%.
(NLST) Netlist IPO of 6.25M shares priced at $7.00, low end of range.
(NWS) News Corpo may spend 4 Billion Euros for Italian broadban player Fastweb.
(NWY) New York & Co. NOV s-s-s -2.8%.
(NYT) New York Times down 3%as Greenberg said he has no intention of increasing stake, although CNBC’s Gasparino said there is a chance he’ll go after them anyway.
(PFE) Pfizer is raising guidance for the year to $2.05 vs $2.00e; high single digit EPS gains in 2007 & 2008. 
(PLCE) Childrens Place NOV s-s-s +12%.
(PSUN) Pacific Sunwear NOV s-s-s -3.8%.
(RAI) Reynolds America announced new president as Lynn Beasly will retire in 2007.
(SCSS) Select Comfort lowered guidance.
(SHRP) Sharper Image NOV s-s-s -27%.
(SMRT) Steinmart NOV s-s-s +3.8%.
(SNPS) Synopsys $0.21 EPS vs $0.19e.
(TINY) Harris & Harris filed to sell 4M shares.
(TIVO) TiVo traded down 5% afterbeating top line numbers.
(WMT) Wal-Mart sees DEC s-s-s flat to +1%.
(WTSLA) Wet Seal NOV s-s-s +5.5%.
(WWAT) WorldWater & Power gets share investment from Emcore (EMKR).

Posted on: November 30, 2006 – 8:32 am in Market Open

Select Analyst Calls (Nov 30, 2006)

AAP reitr Buy at BB&T.
AGN cut to Mkt Weight at Thomas Weisel.
AMTD started as Overweight at Morgan Stanley.
CKFR raised to Buy at Citigroup.
CKR started as Buy at Jefferies.
COGN reitr Buy at B of A.
CYBS raised to Outperform at at JMP.
CYCL raised to Overweight at Thomas Weisel.
DG reitr Buy at B of A.
DIOD raised to Strong Buy at Raymond James.
EGOV raised to Buy at AGEdwards.
EOG cut to Neutral at UBS.
ET started as Overweight at Morgan Stanley.
FDS started as Neutral at Goldman Sachs.
FDRY reitr Buy at Jefferies.
GLW reitr Outperform at Thomas Weisel.
HOTT reitr Buy at B of A.
HPY raised to Buy at Citigroup.
IACI cut to Neutral at Merrill Lynch.
LAZ raised to Buy at Merrill Lynch.
MEDX raised to Overweight at Morghan Stanley.
MIPS cut to Hold at AGEdwards.
MRO cut to Underperform at FBR.
OKE added to Goldman Sachs’ conviction buy list, CLMT removed from list.
OPSW raised to Outperform at JMP Securities.
PLT started as Outperform at Morgan Keegan.
RNWK started as Underperform at Jefferies.
SBH started as Outperform at Bear Stearns.
SCWH started as Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley.
TIVO cut to Sell at Oppenheimer.
TLEO raised to Overweight at JPMorgan.
TS reitr Buy at Deutsche Bank.
VNO raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank.

B  of A: raised homebuilding sector; raised MTH, NVR, PHM, RYL, TOL to Neutral from Sell; raised SPF to Buy from Neutral; RYL noted as worst pick in sector; best picks HOV & SPF.

Posted on: November 30, 2006 – 8:27 am in Analyst Calls

Insider Trading At HP? (HPQ)

Shareholders suing Hewlett-Packard over its board room spying scandal have added a claim of insider trading. The theory behind its is that CEO Mark Hurd and other execs sold $41 million of stock in the two week period before the scandal broke because they were afraid of the market reprocussions of the board problems.

The thought process behind the suit is a little wacky. HP’s stock has risen consistently since the beginning of August, when it traded around $31. It now changes hands at just below $40. So, who was hurt? Perhaps the answer is no one.

Technically, selling ahead of news is not considered good manners, especially when the news is bad. But, since HP’s stock sailed right through the mudslinging, the plantiff could win the case, but what remuneration can they ask for?

Douglas A. McIntyre can be reached at douglasamcintyre@247wallst.com. He does not own securities in companies that he writes about.

Posted on: November 30, 2006 – 7:27 am in Law

As Mobile Deals Pile Up, Yahoo! Finds Relief

Stocks:  (YHOO)(GOOG)(MSFT)(TWX)

With new research showing that Yahoo! has a lead in many key mobile device applications, the company is not resting to help its competitors like Google, AOL, and Microsoft catch up. After cutting a deal to put its e-mail and messaging software onto a number of Nokia phones, Yahoo! has announced a joint venture with Europe cell service provider Vodafone.

Under the terms of the agreement, Vodafone will target ads to specific customers based on their behavior. Yahoo!’s technology will be used for helping identify characteristics like gender, demography and geographic location.

Yahoo! needs to demonstrate that it can come up with a new avenue for rapid revenue growth. Over the last two years, Yahoo!’s stock is off nearly 30% while Google’s has risen well over 150%.

Yahoo!’s CEO, Terry Semel, recently said that the growth potential for internet advertising is grossly underestimated. For his own sake, he should hope that his company’s wireless initiatives prove that statement right.

Douglas A. McIntyre can be reached at douglasamcintyre@247wallst.com. He does not own securities in companies that he writes about.

Posted on: November 30, 2006 – 6:53 am in Internet

AMD And Intel: Is The Faster Chip The Better Chip

Stocks: (AMD)(INTC)

AMD unveiled yet another new line of chips for so-called "power computer" users. The ones who take steroids. It also dropped the price of the chips compared to earlier lines, from $713 to as low as $599, Some will be much more expensive.

The new chip is meant to appeal to users who are processor hogs: gamers, DVD burners and the such. AMD believes that these consumers set the trends for future buyers. The flaw in that would seem to be that future buyers may not need all the power.

Intel has a competing chip for the processor-loving crowd called the Core 2 Extreme. It is a quad core chip while most newer PCs ship with dual core technology,

All of this is somewhat like killing a rabbit with an elephant gun. The theory that the typical consumer wants technology that could run a small city is not evident in any of the data that AMD and Intel pass along to the press or Wall St.

It may simply be sending a man to do a boy’s job.

Douglas A. McIntyre can be reached at douglasamcintyre@247wallst.com. He does not own securities in companies that he writes about.

Posted on: November 30, 2006 – 6:26 am in Uncategorized