Daily Archives: December 1, 2006

Cramer Says Yamana is the Best Gold Stock

On tonight’s MAD MONEY on CNBC, Jim Cramer also discussed a stock that should be a gold medal winner.  He said betting against the market isn’t smart.  He still is touting Yamana Gold (AUY).  He thinks the reasons the stock will go up may be wrong.

This isn’t Cramer’s fist pony ride on Yamana (AUY) because he has been touting this name many times.  he was positive just last night, two weeks ago, two months ago, 3 months ago.  The stock is still at a 52-week high even though the commodity isn’t.

He said you already own it don’t be a pig, but you can still buy it of you do not own it.  Barrick (ABX) and Newmont (NEM) are the old men in the sector, and Yamana’s operation in Brazil is stabile.

Jon C. Ogg
December 1, 2006

Posted on: December 1, 2006 – 6:19 pm in Cramer

Allegheny Tech (ATI) Can Still Run According to Jim Cramer

On tonight’s MAD MONEY on CNBC, Jim Cramer discussed his stock of the year that is up and still going higher.

Cramer on Friday didn’t want to just pick the stock for next week, but for the month.  Back on January 3 he picked he said that Allegheny Tech (ATI) was his pick then back $36.05 and now it is up at $88.00+.  He picked this because of the titanium operations from aircraft expansions and other areas.  He said if you have held this a long time it is at least time to take half off the table, but you can still buy this stock if you haven’t bought it yet.

You don’t have to sell this or avoid it just because it has more than doubled.  He thinks this is still worth owning because of stainless steel and titanium because they service industries that are still strong.

Boeing locked in $2.5 Billion of the company’s supply just last week.  It is still cheap on forward multiples to any fund manager in the world.

Jon C. Ogg
December 1, 2006

Posted on: December 1, 2006 – 6:07 pm in Cramer

US Stock Market Close (Dec 1, 2006)

DJIA    12,194.13; Down 27.80 (0.23%)
NASDAQ    2,413.21; Down 18.56 (0.76%)
S&P500    1,396.71; Down 3.92 (0.28%)
10YR-Bond    4.425%     Down 0.033
NYSE Volume    2,733,464,000
NASD Volume    1,955,439,000

Today the markets got to digest an ISM reading of under that 50.0 barrier, which confirms more manufacturing slowdown after that weak 49.9 Chicago Purchasing Managers index yesterday.  The DJIA had seen triple digit gains, but bottom fishers came in during the last hour to accumulate shares.

Goldman Sachs dumped Wal-Mart (WMT) and replaced it with Target (TGT) on its notorious Americas Conviction Buy List; WMT fell 0.5% to $45.87 and TGT fell 1.3% to $57.31.

Home Depot (HD) rose another 2.5% to $38.97 on hopes that KKR and others would really make a bid for the company in the biggest buyout ever.

Alcatel-Lucent (ALU) rose 0.6% to $13.36 on its first day as a combined Lucent-Alcatel.

Finisar (FNSR) fell some 11% to $2.40 after guidance and disclosing its own options investigation.

Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) fell 4.6% to $26.41 after its guidance, despite being higher in after-hours trading yesterday.

NASDAQ (NDAQ) fell a sharp 7% to $37.32 after Prudential cut its rating to underweight from overweight.  The NYSE (NYX) fell 3.5% to $96.60 along with it by

EMC (EMC) closed up 0.5% to $13.18 after reports showed it is actually growing its market share faster than the overall storage markets.

McGraw Hill (MHP) fell 0.4% to $66.41 despite Jim Cramer on MAD MONEY saying print media buyers should  own that name as it has diversified out of pure print.

Lazard (LAZ) fell 0.7% to $45.10 after pricing 13 million shares at $45.42.

Cohen & Steers (CNS) fell 3.8% to $36.50 after pricing a 3.5 million share secondary at $36.50.

Isle of Capri Casinos (ISLE) rose 5.7% to $29.20 after posting a loss, but it had opened down roughly 3%.

Of the name gadget component stocks, handset camera chipset maker Omnivision (OVTI) fell 16% to $13.62 after posting earnings results under expectations.

Warner Music (WMG) fell 2.5% to $24.78 after posting a slight loss after items.

H&R Block (HRB) fell 1% to $23.75 after posting wider losses than expected.

Select Comfort (SCSS) rose 1.6% to $17.56 despite a lackluster profit forecast.

Jon C. Ogg
December 1, 2006

Posted on: December 1, 2006 – 4:07 pm in Market Close

Cramer Has More Picks For a Weak Dollar

On the STOP TRADING segment on CNBC today, Jim Cramer went over some more picks for a weaker US Dollar.  Before he came on today, the dollar had weakend after the economic data to $1.3326 per Euro, which gets it the weakest level in 18 months and with a couple percent of essentially record lows.

He said this isn’t really new.  He said dividend stocks are better because you aren’t getting any return in treasuries.  He also said he wouldn’t be shocked if today’sselling was wire orders for redemptions to switch managers before year-end. 

He thinks you can start buying on week Fridays.  He could create a Wal-Mart/Ford story that could scare you out of a WMT & F short but he won’t.

He is still touting healthcare here.  He said it is a gift, but gave no names (see my earlier post).

Go buy gold if it is really stagflation fears.

Ruth’s Chris (RUTH) was given a positive comment by Cramer when Erin Burnette said their CEO would be on.

Jon C. Ogg
December 1, 2006

Posted on: December 1, 2006 – 2:47 pm in Cramer

November Car Sales

Stocks:  (DCX)(TM)(F)(GM)

Things were expected to be raw for Chrysler, but the company beat the devil. November sales of its cars and trucks rose 4.7% to 186,835, Even lagging division Chrysler sales were up 2.9% as the company launched new models. Mercedes US sales rose 20.8%,

Ford, on the other hand, did horribly. US sales dropped 9.6% to 182,259. Sales of it trucks fell 12.9% with the company flagship F-series trucks falling 16.1% to 52,727. Ford did bring down inventory from by 122,000 to 631,000. Ford shareholders were not pleased, sending the shares down almost 2% to $8.

Toyota sales jumped sharply rising 15.9% to 196,695. Toyota sales rose 18% to 169,976. Lexus division sales were up 4.2%.

GM’s sales rose 6% to 297,556. Light truck sales rose 16.6% to 183,573. Car sales were down 7.9% to 109,985. The rise in truck sales was somthing of a surprise given their gas mileage compared to small cars. GM’s shares were up very slightly on the news trading at $29.27.

All in all, another win for Toyota.

Douglas A. McIntyre can be reached at douglasamcintyre@247wallst.com. He does not own securities in companies that he writes about.

Posted on: December 1, 2006 – 2:22 pm in Autos

Cramer’s TheStreet.com TV Features; Would He Consider a Sirius Deal?

Stock Tickers: PFE, UNH, JNJ, MO, BAC, AMGN, DNA, DGX, WLP, TSCM, SIRI, XMSR

Well, here we go, Cramer is really switching out of Radio as we already knew to go TheStreet.com TV and he has been doing this.  In today’s 12/1/06 he comments as follows (paraphrasing, not verbatim):

Cramer said the negative extremism from a soft to a hard landing is one he isn’t buying into, he doesn’t believe it.  He’d load the boat on Healthcare, but he hates Pfizer (PFE) and yesterday he said the street was just being fooled into the good news camp so to speak, but w/ United Health (UNH) hitting $50 when their ex-CEO could even be facing jail that means the good guys are going higher and J&J (JNJ) going to $70 by year end.

Cramer said everyone worrying about the long bond yield so low down to 4.40% just means the short end is going to 4% or 3 3/4%…He notes, do you want to be in Altria (MO) or Bank of America (BAC) at a 4% yield or you want to be in cash, plus the 3.75% will be taxed to the max.

Why people are focusing on the weak economy is beyond him.  If you think it is a freak out then go buy gold; He has seen this all before and knows how it ends.

CONJECTURE

Please note that Cramer has been making strong healthcare comments this week and has been eseentially doing a strong set-up in the sector for about 2 weeks or so.  Some of his recent healthcare names he’s been steadily bullish on and will probably continue being that way on (that is my opinion anyway) are Amgen (AMGN), Genentech (DNA), Wellpoint (WLP), and Quest Diagnostics (DGX).  His call on DNA is an older one and he hasn’t noted it in a while.

Anyway, this is the new action out of TheStreet.com (TSCM) to go in and lock-up the time and missed revenues themselves instead of giving them mostly to the radio stations.

A THOUGHT ON "WHAT ELSE: COULD BE NEXT

This is pure speculation, but I really think something could be in the works with Sirius (SIRI).  As his as Cramer is already on Sirius (SIRI) I really wouldn’t be shocked at all if there is a new weekend evaluation "special" or something of the ilk or at least more guest appearances around the Sirius platform.  He already has the MAD MONEY and STOP TRADING segments on Sirius because of their distribution pact with CNBC that is currently on.  The catch is that XM Satellite Radio (XMSR) also has CNBC as one of their channels.   Cramer talks up Sirius as the better of the two, so why wouldn’t he?  So if he did a new deal (without knowing the lock-up terms he has with MAD MONEY) it would not be an all Cramer or anything, it would be as "special guest appearances" so it didn’t impact any current contracts (once again, not knowing the contractual details).  Just because TheStreet.com said earlier this week that DEC 1 (today) is his last nationally syndicated radio show of "RealMoney with Jim Cramer" does not mean that other deals are out of the realm of possibilities.  After all, if it helps TheStreet.com (TSCM) then they’ll go for it.  The only true wild card is if he’d actually go for it himself.  Even if he was pressured to do it he is strong enough and entrenched enough to say no. Just this week there were media reports that Sirius was considering some more content deals for live TV service.  Cramer and Karmazin already get along well, or if not the do one hell of a job cloaking that they do not.

Ok, so I am telling you once again that my last paragraph is pure speculation.  It may not happen at all and if this doesn’t come true I already can see the venomous waves of email about being a biased Cramerite or worse.  In short, I am actually a pure neutralite on Cramer and I know some traders who have made a lot betting with him and others that make money fading his feature stock picks.  As far as more reasoning for thinking a deal is possible is that Cramer was having to waste a severe amount of time on that radio show and now he can just focus on TheStreet.com and his CNBC arrangements plus whatever extra avenues he is willing to do with TheStreet.com. He already has made his big dough so a bit of extra cash won’t matter to him (but the exposure might).  But this would be yet one more platform for him to promote his platform and possibly draw more customers for the satellite radio.  Cramer already does special appearances here and there on many media properties, so pondering this on something more formal isn’t exactly a re-working of the wheel.  You can decide for yourself.

Jon C. Ogg
December 1, 2006

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own any securities of the companies mentioned in this report.

Posted on: December 1, 2006 – 1:43 pm in Analyst Calls, Biotech, Cramer, Drug companies, Old Media, Satellite

The NYSE Already Misses Nortel & Lucent Volume

The New York Stock Exhange just feels different today from an outsider viewpoint.  It’s just before noon and the news Lucent, Alcatel-Lucent (ALU), has only traded 9 million shares.  Nortel (NT) has only traded 4.6 million shares.

Neither name is in the top 10 trading volume on NYSE today, something that probably hasn’t been the case for literally 3 or 4 years.

Now we have the NYSE most actives today as Home Depot (HD), EMC (EMC), Pfizer (PFE), Ford (F), GM (GM), Wal-Mart (WMT), Motorola (MOT), DirecTV (DTV), Advanced Micro (AMD), and Exxon Mobil (XOM).  Hell, half of those are DJIA components.  After the initial traders’ withdrawal goes away these may fall much farther down the list.

To be fair ALU is number 11 on the list, but the NYSE just doesn’t feel the same.  NT isn’t even in the top 20 in NYSE trading volume today.  Out of the other top 20 volume stocks on the NYSE only Ford (F) and Qwest (Q) have share prices under $10.00.

While the NYSE has to notice this on their trading volume, the NASDAQ is even slower today.  The NYSE has 1.13 Billion shares and the NASDAQ has only 850 million shares having traded hands.  While this is the first Friday in December, it makes you wonder if the coming Fridays as we head into the holiday season will be even slower.

Jon C. Ogg
December 1, 2006

Posted on: December 1, 2006 – 11:56 am in Exchange News

Nvidia. Antitrust? No.

Stocks: (AMD)(INTC)(NVDA)

Nvidia, the graphics chip maker, has received a subpoena from Justice regarding potential antitrust activity in the graphics chip and processing cards.

AMD is part of the probe as well. They bought graphics chip company ATI Technologies, which would appear to be the target of the investigation.

Nvidia is trading very near its 52-week high, so it may not take much to get its shareholders nervous.

The action by Justice would seem to contradict the wall that Wall St. sees the graphic chips market. As Morningstar points out "intense competition and the lack of an economic moat make these shares appropriate only for investors with strong stomachs for volatility"

Given that companies like AMD and Intel are competing with NVDA, it would seem that anticompetitive practices would be hard to come by

But, this author is not a lawyer.

Douglas A. McIntyre can be reached at douglasamcintyre@247wallst.com. He does not own securities in companies that he writes about.

Posted on: December 1, 2006 – 11:08 am in Semiconductor

Slowing ISM, Slowing Chicago PMI…Is This The Soft Landing?

The reading of ISM Manufacturing coming in under 50.0 is signaling that the Chicago Purchasing Managers was not a fluke yesterday, although read the summary about a silver lining at the end here.  This dip is the first time under a 50.0 reading following 41 consecutive months of growth, while the overall economy grew for the 61st consecutive month.  While we have an inverted yield curve and weaking numbers, we still have higher prices and this is still a dilemma for the Fed.  The Fed can’t really justify a hike right now, but they have to keep watching prices to avoid stagflation.

HERE ARE THE READINGS: 49.5 in NOV versus 51.5 estimates and vs. 51.2 for OCT…..ISM 5 of 9 components under 50.0, meaning contraction.

These are 8 sectors still showing positive readings: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Primary Metals; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Computer & Electronic Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; and Chemical Products.

ISM’s New Orders Index registered 48.7 percent in November, down 3.4 points than the 52.1 percent reported in October (breaks a 42 month gain streak).

What is cautionary is that this shows a drop in NEW ORDERS, a drop in EMPLOYMENT, a drop in SUPPLIER DELIVERIES, and a drop in INVENTORIES. Backlogs are also under 50 for the third month in a row.  Unfortunately the prices pair are still running above the 50.0 barrier (although the Bureau says 47.1 is the b/e mark now).  Exports are still positive at 56.9 (down a tad) and imports grew to 56.6.

Here are additional respondent comments:

    *  "Sales have leveled off, but we will have a record year. Second [year] in a row." (Computer & Electronic Products)
    * "Business has softened in the past 60 days. Down about 20 percent." (Fabricated Metal Products)
    * "Housing market slowed down." (Furniture & Related Products)
    * "We have hit another slow period in receiving new contracts. Quoting activity is fair." (Machinery)
    * "We are still trying to hire new maintenance techs, but find it difficult to find qualified people." (Nonmetallic Mineral Products)

There is actually a silver lining:

The Fed will need to keep rates steady because a really weak economy will hurt the public far more than an extra 0.5% hike in prices.  Bernanke will not want to go into the next administration as being the guy that led us into a recession within a year and a half or two years of taking the helm.  The real way to track this is by watching the 10-year yields rather than stocks, as the bond guys are just better at this game.  The 10-year treasury yield was just under 4.48% (up 2 basis points) before the release, but now the yield has fallen to 4.42%.  That is not indicative of another series of hikes.  Fed fund futures often ratchet around too much in the immediate hours after an economic reading, so for now we’ll leave it alone.

Everyone wanted a goldilocks economy where we still maintain even keel or have a slight change either way with strong employment.  This may actually be it and a soft landing so far doesn’t look or feel like a real thud based on these weaker numbers yet.  The forward numbers (new orders) are somewhat offset by lower inventories, so right now you have the wait and see game still being played.

Jon C. Ogg
December 1, 2006

Posted on: December 1, 2006 – 10:38 am in WiMAX

Goldman Strategist Sticks with GOOG, AAPL, RIMM, & EBAY

On the technology framework: Goldman refreshed its favorite and least favorite technology picks based on growth and value.

Goldman’s 5 favorite picks are Apple (AAPL), Cognizant (CTSH), eBay (EBAY), Google (GOOG), and Research-in-Motion (RIMM).

Goldman’s least favorite picks include AMD (AMD), CSG Systems (CSGS), Red Hat (RHAT), Teradyne (TER), and Unisys (UIS).  AMD (AMD) was replacing Hewitt (HEW), making it a new "least favorite.". 

Goldman noted that the favorites list is up 28% since 9/21 2005 and the least favorite group is up 6% while the S&P is up 16% and the NASDAQ up 15%.

Its December 2006 Sector strategy also lists IT, Health Care, & Energy as the best growth & value combined sectors, and it says Financials, Consumer Discretionary Spending, and Utilities are unattractive.

Jon C.Ogg
December 1, 2006

Posted on: December 1, 2006 – 9:44 am in Analyst Calls

Chrysler Shows Its Weak Hand

Chrysler (DCX) is mailing a $1,000 off coupon to 3.4 million people. The incentive is in addition to others already being offered. The company’s already reported inventory problem must be getting worse. Consumers can’t use it to buy a Dodge Viper and a couple of other high-end cars. What a shame.

According to industry research expert Edmunds.com, Chrysler is the only US manufacturer that should see unit sales drop in November. Given the inventory mess, that is especially bad news.

The incentives raise several issues. If Chrysler cannot sell cars, will it cut production for early 2007? Shut plants? Cut more of its white collar work force?

There is also the matter of Chrysler’s parent, Daimler, sending management to Detroit to try to fix the mess, and Chrysler’s senior management may be shown the door.

The problem is that Germans cannot do any better than Americans if consumers don’t want the products.

Douglas A. McIntyre can be reached at douglasamcintyre@247wallst.com. He does not own securities in companies that he writes about.

Posted on: December 1, 2006 – 9:12 am in Autos

Goldman Sachs Dumps Wal-Mart (WMT) In Favor of Target (TGT)

Stock Tickers: WMT, TGT, ARA, BAX, CCK, FLEX

Goldman Sachs has made several changes to its Conviction Buy List this morning, most noted was a removal of Wal-Mart (WMT) from the list and replaces it with Target (TGT).  TGT was given a $68 target and WMT tatrget was cut to $53 from $57 per share.  On Wal-Mart Goldman siad they believe a turnaround is in its early stages and they see little positive momentum into the critical holiday season.  They are maintaining an official Buy rating on WMT, but simultaneously lowered Fiscal 2006 EPS from $2.87 to $2.83.  Target (TGT) estimates were raised by $0.01 to $3.18.

Baxter (BAX) walso trimmed off the Americas Conviction Buy List.

Aracruz (ARA) was also removed from the Americas Convistion Buy List as it is within 4% of the $63 target the have.

Flextronics (FLEX) also removed from Americas Convistion Buy List, shares are down 9% since being added to the list in September and they expect a more of a seasonal slowdown.

Crown Holdings (CCK) was added to the Americas Conviction Buy List.

Jon C. Ogg
December 1, 2006

Posted on: December 1, 2006 – 9:05 am in Analyst Calls

EMC Comes In From The Wilderness

Stocks:   (EMC)(IBM)(DELL)(HPQ)

EMC has been on the outs with Wall St. for a long time. Over the last five years the S&P is up about 50%. Other big techs are up, with HP rising over 60% since late 2001. EMC is down close to 25%.

Finally, it appears that the company is making headway in its core storage business. EMC had the fastest revenue growth among major storage companies in Q3. Its share rose to 21.4% from 20% a year ago. Revenue grew 18% for the third quarter. In the second quarter, EMC revenue growth lagged significantly at only 3%.

EMC also put more distance between itself and the second place firm, Its share fell from 19% in last year’s thrid quarter to 17.4%.

IBM and Dell took the third and fourth places, but their market shares did not move much.

IDC puts the storage market at $4.3 billion in the third quarter, so EMC’s share has tremendous value to the company’s topline. Perhaps more important, it is an indication that the company’s large core business is growing again. It does not have other huge operations like IBM, HP, and Dell do, so its fate is more closely tied to storage.

That being the case, EMC’s shareholders may be happy for the first time in a long time.

Douglas A. McIntyre can be reached at douglasamcintyre@247wallst.com. He does not own securities in companies that he writes about.

Posted on: December 1, 2006 – 8:53 am in Hardware

Pre-Market US Stock News (Dec 1, 2006)

S&P FAIR VALUE -$0.02.

(ALTH) Allos positive in Business Week over cancer.
(AXCA) Axcan $0.22 EPS vs $0.19e.
(AXTI) AXT filed to sell 4.1M shares.
(CNS) Cohen & Steers 3.5M share secondary priced at $36.50.
(CPNO) Copano has secondary offering.
(DENN) Denny’s indicated higher afterCramer featured the stock and said it was going to $6.00.
(DUK) Duke noted positively on spin-off in Business Week.
(ERIC) Ericsson in mobile broadband collaboration with Intel.
(GRMN) Garmin pay8ing $36M to buy Dynastream Innovations.
(HNZ) Heinz $0.59 EPS vs $0.60e.
(HRB) H&R Block -$0.49 EPS vs -$0.32e.
(ISLE) Isle of Capri down 3%after posting loss.
(KWD) Kellwood $0.68 EPS vs $0.64e; sees $0.43 EPS vs $0.42e.
(LAZ) Lazard priced 13M shares (1M more than expected) at a slight premium to yesterday’s close.
(LBTYA) Liberty noted as cheap stock in Business Week.
(MHP) McGraw Hill noted as a print media company worth owning by Cramer.
(NYX) NYSE may start a revenue sharing plan with specialists.
(OVTI) OmniVision trading down 12% after earnings warning.
(SCSS) Select Comfort Earnings Warnings.
(SONC) Sonic put guidance at $0.19-0.20 vs $0.20e.
(WMG) Warner Music $0.08 EPS vs $0.00e; not sure if comparable because it has a -$0.01 after items.
(YORW) York Water secondary priced at $17.90.

Posted on: December 1, 2006 – 8:29 am in Pre-Market Activity

Select Analyst Calls (Dec. 1, 2006)

ACUS started as Outperform at FBR.
ADI raised to Mkt Perform at Piper Jaffray.
AVR started as NEutral at UBS.
BA tgt raised to $107 at Merrill Lynch.
BAX removed from Goldman Sachs focus list.
BUDraised to Neutral at UBS.
CAH raised to Buy at UBS.
CCL cut to Neutral at Merrill Lynch.
CELL reitr Buy at Jefferies.
CKFR cut to Neutral at Pru.
CPA raised to Neutral at JPMorgan.
CVX raised to Peer Perform at Bear Stearns.
CYH raised to Outperform at Bear Stearns.
DVA raised to Buy at Oppenheimer.
EDS cut to Neutral at Pru.
ERIC started as Overweight at JPMorgan.
EXTR raised to Overweight at Lehman.
EYE cut to Equal Weightat Lehman.
FDC cut to Neutral at Pru.
GMT started as Hold at Jefferies.
FD cut to Hold at Citigroup.
FFIV cut to Equal Weight at Lehman.
FTEK cut to Neutral at Goldman Sachs.
GOL cut to Underweight at JPMorgan.
JWN cut to Hold at AGE.
KFI started as Peer Perform at Bear Stearns.
MCGC started as Buy at Jefferies.
NGG raised to Hold at Citigroup.
NSM raised to Outperform at Piper Jaffray.
NVO raised to Buy at Merrill Lynch.
O raised to Sector Perform at RBC.
PIR cut to Mkt Perform at Piper Jaffray.
POM raised to Overweight at Lehman.
REV cut to Sell at Goldman Sachs.
RIMM started as Sector Perform at CIBC.
RWT raised to Buy at Jefferies.
SCSS cut to Hold at Stifel.
SFY cut to Mkt Perform at FBR.
SONS raised to Overweight at Lehman.
STP reitr Buy at Citigroup.
SYK reitr Buy at Goldman Sachs.
TRI cut to Peer Perform at BEar Stearns.
TRCA started as Overweight at Lehman.
VDSI started as Outperform at RBC.
VRSN cut to Neutral at Susquehana.
VSE started as Neutral at UBS.
WMGI cut to Equal Weightat Lehman.

Posted on: December 1, 2006 – 8:27 am in Uncategorized

Intel Stays The Course On Wireless

Stocks: (INTC)(ERIC)(VZ)(MOT)

If Intel’s forays into WiFi chips and WiMax technology were not enough, the company has entered into a joint venture with Ericsson to build applications for mobile computuers. The products from the jv will be aimed at trying to increase the number of consumers and businesses that use mobile broadband.

Ericsson saya that "these solutions will be based on Ericsson’s HSPA platform for mobile broadband and IMS platform for convergence with Intel’s Mobile technology". That is a mouthful, but it means that there will be another technology set in the market for driving mobile broadband adoption. Are there going to be too many? It is too early to say.

On the other hand, it is not too early to see that Intel and its partners in the mobile broadband space, which now include Samsung, Motorola, Ericsson and a number of smaller companies, are building technology that could make DSL and cable broadband less attractive. And, that may be bad for the cable guys and telecom firms.

Verizon please phone home.

Douglas A. McIntyre can be reached at douglasamcintyre@247wallst.com. He does not own securities in companies that he writes about.

Posted on: December 1, 2006 – 7:10 am in Telecom

Oil vs. Oil Stocks

From Ticker Sense

While the press has been busy speculating on what the next major private equity deal will be, oil stocks have been quietly staging a rally.  Even more impressive is the fact that oil the commodity has not been nearly as strong, as it is still over $14 off its Summer highs. In the chart below, we plotted the ratio of the S&P 500 oil and gas group to the price of oil. As the chart shows, the ratio currently stands at 7.25, which is near three year highs. This compares to a three year average ratio of 6.19.

In order for this ratio to get back to equilibrium (and no one says it has to), one or a combination of two things has to happen.  Either the stocks have to trade down or the commodity has to rally.  Based on current prices, oil would have to rally to $73 (17%) or the stocks would have to correct by 14%. Another possibility is that both assets continue to rise, but the commodity rises at a faster pace than the stocks.

Oil_vs_oil_stocks_1

November 30, 2006

http://tickersense.typepad.com/

Posted on: December 1, 2006 – 6:57 am in Oil & Gas

Pfizer Blows It Horn To Doubting Thomases

Pfizer (PFE) met with analysts yesterday and said it was on the road to introducing some blockbuster drugs. Wall St. should hope so. With a sales force reduction of 2,000, generics snapping at its heels, Wal-Mart offering $4 prescriptions, and a Democratic Congress that wants to knock down healthcare costs, Pfizer need some big wins.

Pfizer says that its has six drugs in the pipeline to come out before 2011. But, the company has spent $7 billion on research each year and does not have much to show except a lot of drugs that are losing their patent protection.

Pfizer’s biggest upcoming drug is torcetrapib, a drug to boost HDL, or good cholesterol. The company says that it is confident that the drug will do well, but in some trials it raises blood pressure in patients. So, it fixes on thing and damages another.

Pfizer will have to do better than that. Over that last five years, the S&P is up about 20% and Pfizer is off 35%. That would give most investors high blood pressure without torcetrapib.

Douglas A. McIntyre can be reached at douglasamcntyre@247wallst.com. He does not own securities in companies that he writes about.

Posted on: December 1, 2006 – 6:49 am in Drug companies

Europe Markets 12/1/2006 British Air, Bayer, Siemens Up

Stocks: (BCS)(BP)(BT)(BAB)(GSK)(PUK)(RTRSY)(UL)(VOD)(BAY)(DCX)(DT)(DB)(SI)(ALA)(AXA)(FTE)(V)

Markets in Europe were up modestly at 6.10 AM New York time.

The FTSE rose .5% to 6,077. Barclays was down .2% to 679. BP was flat at 574. British Air was up 2% to 502.5. BT was up .6% to 286. GlaxoSmithKline was up .4% to 1356. Prudential was up 1% to 667. Reuters was down .1% to 452.25. Unilever was down .5% to 1356. Vodafone was up .4% to 135.

The DAXX was up .6% to 6,348. Bayer was up 1.7% to 39.59. DaimlerChryler was up .3% to 43.95. DeutscheBank was up .6% to 97.97. Deutsche Telekom was up .3% to 13.43. Siemens was up 1.4% to 72.91.

The CAC 40 was up .4% to 5,351. Alcatel was down .4% to 10.12. AXA was up .9% to 28.85. France Telecom was down .3% to 19.54. ST Micro was up .3% to 13.66. Vivendi was up .6% to 29.23.

Data from Reuters.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Posted on: December 1, 2006 – 6:10 am in International Markets

Sirius Moves To TV To Get Back On Track

Stocks:  (SIRI)(XMSR)

Sirius Satellite will offer live TV service by the end of 2007 in 2008 car models. So says Mel Karmazin, the Sirius CEO.

The new service will cost $13 a month more that radio service, but it is not clear how much the new system will add to the price of a car. Karmazin hopes that the new service will increase yield-per-subscriber.

It is a shrewd move for Sirius. If it can come to market with the service before XM, it would offer the smaller satellite radion company a significant "first mover" advantage that could help SIRI get closer to XMSR in terms of total subscriber count. If XM does not have the service, it could also push Sirius well ahead in subscriber yields.

If people want TV in their cars. Rear-seat entertainment centers are already a staple in many automobiles. Most play DVDs. It is safe to assume that the cost of the hardware for the TV service will not be cheap. What consumers will pay for the intial system is hard to say.

But, it is innovative.

Douglas A. McIntyre can be reached at douglasamcintyre@247wallst.com. He does not own securities in companies that he writes about.

Posted on: December 1, 2006 – 5:51 am in Satellite