Daily Archives: December 13, 2006

Cramer Interviews Halliburton’s CEO

Cramer said he is sticking by Halliburton (HAL): it is the cheapest in the group, and it has the lowest multiples it has really seen.  He spoke to HAL’s CEO in an interview on MAD MONEY.  Cramer asked point blank if the perceived ties to VP Cheney hurt them on an international basis where business may go to Schlumberger (SLB) and the CEO said the company never hears that as any logic or reasoning from customers.  HAL has been sliding all month, but shares closed up 1.5% at $32.72 in normal trading and shares were up another 0.6% at $32.92 after he said he is sticking with it.  Keep in mind that Cramer has been touting this stock at levels higher than this and lower than this, so this is not at all his first pony ride on HAL.

Jon C. Ogg
December 13, 2006

Cramer’s Picks Time Warner over Comcast

On tonight’s MAD MONEY, Cramer reviewed some stock basics on risk profiling.  Cramer reviewed non-speculative companies for growth and value.  You go to the most household names in the business:  Cramer noted names that are steady household grwoth companies are Time Warner (TWX) or Comcast (CMCSA) you look at for capital appreciation.

In this growth and "MAD MONEY" group he likes both: TWX has a small dividend but that isn’t the focus of the company and they are trying to boost the share price through buybacks.  Cable is the best asset there and cable will have accelerated revenue growth in 2007.  The growth this year made Comcast the best performer.  He thinks you have to look at the best growth prospects ahead, and Cramer says Comcast has better cable growth propspects.  Cramer also likes the management at Comcast.  BUT…Cramer says he still has to go with Time Warner (TWX) as the pick for 2007.  He said even though Comcast may be better, TWX has more upside because of the negativity still there and the bar for Comcast may be too high. Pasron’s spin-off of cable may be sooner rather than later according to Cramer.  He said this is no offense to Comcast because they are a better company, but they have also had a bigger run in the stock.

TWX shares are up 0.75% at $21.53 after-hours.  If that holds it will be another new multi-year high.

Jon C. Ogg
December 13, 2006

Cramer: 2 Value Picks & 2 Growth Picks

On tonight’s MAD MONEY, Cramer reviewed some stock basics on risk profiling.

Cramer reviewed non-speculative companies for growth and value.  You go to the most household names in the business.

Value stocks are like Verizon (VZ) and AT&T (T), according to Cramer.  But he noted you can’t just own 2 telco’s and think you are diversified.

The value stocks pay high dividends and have no longer seen raw rapid growth outside of wireless and VoIP and tertiary services.  They are trying to grow but they have to keep raising dividends.  They have enough yield supprort to keep them from falling out of bed.  Out of the two Cramer likes AT&T (T) better because there will be a lot less competition in the phone space.  The lower yield may mean they’ll more easily raise their dividends into the future.

Jon C. Ogg
December 13, 2006

IPO Filing: LifeWatch (correction)

LifeWatch has filed to come public in an IPO via a sale of up to $86.25 million in common stock.  It even has the proposed ticker "LIFE" on NASDAQ.  The company has listed Jefferies & Co., Cowen & Co. and Piper Jaffray as the joint bookrunners.

The company claims to be the leading independent provider of ambulatory cardiac event monitoring services and the leading manufacturer and distributor of ambulatory cardiac event monitoring devices; and claims this is a $1.1 billion industry according to the 2004 Frost & Sullivan study.  On August 23, 2006, the FDA approved for marketing the LifeStar ACT™ and it has the exclusive right to offer services using the LifeStar ACT™ in the United States through 2011 and are in the process of launching. 2005 revenues were $37.5M and it posted a $7.8M net income after some tax benefits.  Its sales for the first 9-months of 2006 were $31 million with net income of $1.2 million after a $1.3 million tax loss.

This appears is the US operation backed by Card Guard AG, a public company in Switzerland (was previously and improperly listed as Life Guard in Germany, which was an error).

Jon C. Ogg
December 13, 2006

US Stock Market Wrap (Dec 13, 2006)

DJIA    12,319.58; Up 4.00 (0.03%)
NASDAQ    2,432.41; Up 0.81 (0.03%)
S&P500    1,413.51; Up 1.95 (0.14%)
10YR-Bond    4.577%     Up 0.086
NYSE Volume    2,441,198,000
NASD Volume    1,749,204,000

The market absorbed a 1% gain in retail sales, although the bond market lost ground to higher rates.  Today might not look like much but we had been weaker most of the day.  Get ready for OPEC causing price gyrations in enery stocks because of its meeting Thursday.

Atlas Energy Resources (ATN) priced its 6.325 million share IPO at $21.00, at the top of the $19.00 to $21.00 range; it closed at $22.48.

Buckle (BKE) rose 5% to $51.28 after it announced a 3 for 2 stock split and a $3 special dividend.

DCT Industrial Trust (DCT) priced its 16.3 million share IPO at $12.25, toward the higher-end of the $11.50 to $12.50 range and higher than the 15 million shares indicated; it closed at $12.35.

eBay (EBAY) rose 2.5% to $32.63 after noting it would start charging for certain Skype services.

Guidance Software (GUID) priced its 5 million share IPO at $11.50, under the $12.50 to $14.50 range; it closed at $15.18

IPG Photonics (IPGP) priced 9 million shares at $16.50 for its IPO, it closed at $25.60.

Steel Dynamics (STLD) lowered guidance slightly, but not as bad as the street was expecting after Nucor’s warning; shares rose 3.5% to $32.99.

UAL (UAUA) rose 4.6% to $45.24 on a potnetial Continental buyout.

Amgen (AMGN) rose 0.2% to $69.84 after announcing a $5 Billion allocation to a repurchase program; since when are high-tech biotechs supposed to spend money on their own stock……does that signal fewer opoortunities for the company to buy new growth reasonably?

Martek Bio (MATK) posted EPS at $0.12 vs $0.10e; shares rose 4.5% to $24.41.

Midwest Air (MEH) rose 22% to $11.10 after an $11.50 offer form Airtran.

Northwest Air (NWACQ-OTC) rose almost 10% to $6.47 as it is one that has to be taken care of before any real airline deal can come from Continental.

Mamma.com (MAMA) rose 0.7% but had been up another 20% at one point today, after yesterday’s "launch" of its video search.

Mobile Mini (MINI) fell 2.3% to $27.84 after guiding earnings in-line but to lower part of the range.

Prudential downgraded both Best Buy (BBY) and Circuit City (CC); BBY fell another 1.6% to $50.46 and CC fell almost 2% to $23.12.

Vimpelcom (VIP) fell 3.5% to $77.19 after HSBC downgraded the com,mon stock overseas to a Neutral rating.

Cisco (CSCO) rose 0.6% to $27.25 after getting a fiber to the home pact in France.

Jon C. Ogg
December 13, 2006

Cramer defended tech

Cramer was fairly brief today on his STOP TRADING segment on CNBC.

HE was positive on eBay (EBAY), maintaining a run to $40 there.

He again noted Apple (AAPL) positively after the reiteration and higher research target out today; he noted it’s going to $120.00.

He was also positive on Google (GOOG) but he recently noted that options are pegging its prices this week.

Jon C. Ogg
December 13, 2006

Home Depot Ain’t Being Bought

The wild speculation about a Home Depot (HD) private equity buy-out has been bounding around for weeks.

Well, an SEC filing may finally put a dagger in the heart of the rumors. Home Depot has filed a shelf regiatration for $5 billion in notes. The purpose of the funds would be to buy back HD stock.

Although the idea has been hair brained since it was floated, the media would not let it go. With operating income of about $8 billion and cash flow from operations of less than $6.5 billion, a $100 million price can’t be supported.

If you are going private, why borrow to buy back the stock.

Douglas A. McIntyre can be reached at douglasamcintyre@247wallst.com. He does not own securities in companies that he writes about.

Ten Most Undervalued Stocks: Linear Technology

Semiconductor stocks are not a Wall St. favorite now. ADI, Texas Instruments and Linear (LLTC) are all off considerably this year. Lehman just downgraded Linear based on their belief that the company’s growth prospects for 2007 are not especially good.

Although Linear showed growth in its last quarter, it projected a sequential quarterly decline in both profits and revenue. That will scare off any investors except those with the stongest stomachs.

Linear’s margins are a thing of beauty. In the last quarter, ending October 1, the company had an operating profit of $163 million on net sales of $292 million.

According to Thomson/First call, the 22 anlysts who cover Linear have an median price target of $36 on a stock that trades just above $32. And, the high target is $45.

Douglas A. McIntyre can be reached at douglasamcintyre@247wallst.com. He does not own securities in companies that he writes about.

Ten Most Undervalued Stocks: Hovnanian (HOV)

No one likes housing stocks. The market for existing and new homes is simply too poor. Hovnanian, Pulte, DH Horton, and Lennar are all down between 10% and more than 30% over the last year. And, Hovnanian is off the most. The stock hit almost $55 in January and now trades at about $35.

Hovnanian will announce earnings in about a week and there will be plenty of speculation between now and then. But, analyst sentiment toward the sector, especially Hovnanian, has started to turn positive. Even Hovnanian’s CEO has said he thinks the sector has bottomed. The bears are not listening.

Morningstar likes Hovnanian’s diverse geographic distribution and conservative approach to land strategy. The analyst firm has a fair market estimate of $60 on the company, close to double the current price.

Douglas A. McIntyre can be reached at douglasamcintyre@27wallst.com. He does not own securities in companies that he writes about.

Ten Most Undervalued Stocks: Alcoa

Alcoa (AA) has its share of doubters. Moody’s just moved its credit outlook on the company from stable to negative. RBC downgraded the stock to "underperfom" from "sector perform" because the stock is up 17% over the last two months. But, the company has been talking up its own case with the argument that long-term prices for aluminum will be pushed up by demand from India and China.

Alcoa has signed a deal to put its soft alloy extrusion business into a joint venture. The segment has been doing poorly, so the move should help Alcoa’s P&L. The company’s forecasts are now for revenue and profits to be at record levels over the next two fiscal years.

Alcoa’s cash flow from operations over the last twelve months was $2.273 billion compared to $1.676 billion in fiscal 2005. If the momentum continues, the stock may rally from its current $30 back toward its 52-week high of nearly $37.

Douglas A. McIntyre can be reached at douglasamcintyre@247wallst.com. He does not own securities in companies that he writes about.

Cramer Defends Apple and Others

Apple (AAPL) is making a comeback according to Cramer today.  The analyst defending AAPL this morning gave support to AAPL and pointed out the fallacies of the Forrester Research Report that hit the stock.  In his VIDEO on TheStreet.com Cramer discussed some other names as well.

Marvell Tech (MRVL) is also featured there.

Exxon (XOM) to $78 was enough but if you need to be in the oil sector he likes CVX, DVN or RIG

He said the eBay (EBAY) Skype deal is helping, and Google (GOOG) is up on news that isn’t even news.

R-I-M (RIMM) is the one that has been the most down in the little tech sell-off and that is one that he likes.

On GE (GE) Cramer said the story is beginning to get interesting after their dividend hike.

Jon C. Ogg
December 13, 2006

Ten Most Undervalued Stocks: Amgen

At below $70, Amgen (AMGN) trades back where it was in July, 2003, and well below its and well below its September 2005 high of $85.

An antitrust claim that was an investor concern lost some stream in court recently. As a consequence Citi reiterated its "buy" rating on the stock with a $100 price target.

Amgen has also picked up the pace in the earnings area. Third quarter earnings were ahead of Wall St. expectations at $1.04 a share Analysts expected $.98. On the news Morgan Stanley raised its price target to $74 and commented: "We suspect short-term momentum will be to the upside, as expectations were low coming into the quarter, overall market sentiment remains positive, and estimates are increasing," according to Forbes.com.

According to Morningstar, Amgen’s cash flow was 32% of sales last year.

Not bad for a beaten down stock.

Douglas A. McIntyre can be reached at douglasamcintyre@247wallst.com. He does not own securities in companies that he writes about.

Ten Most Undervalued Stocks: Gannett

If you don’t think newspapers are going to make it, then all newspaper company stocks will eventually go to zero. But, if any company can make it out of the fight alive, it is Gannett (GCI). Aside from owning USA Today, which, along with the Wall Street Journal, vies for first place in circulation among US newspapers, Gannett has the only newspaper in several dozen markets. It can price circulation and advertising up to what the market will take without other papers pushing competitive pricing. The company owns several large markets like Honolulu, Indianapolis, Nashville, Louisville, Detroit, Newark and Cincinnati.

Gannett also has a huge network of news websites, lead by USAToday.com, that are helping to offset drop-offs in revenue from printed products. Very few companies can get access to this many readers online.

Despite pressure on newspaper costs and circulation, Gannett brought in operating income of over $2 billion last year on $7.6 billion in revenue.

Some savvy investors are starting to catch on to the fact that Gannett may be undervalued. Vontobel Asset Management just bought 2% of Gannett’s outstanding shares. The reason, according to the fund’s manager: "The stock is cheap here, and we expect it to be in the mid-70s in 12 months"

And, with newspaper companies like The Tribune and Knight-Ridder emerging as buy-out candiates, who knows?

Douglas A. McIntyre can be reached at douglasamcintyre@247wallst.com. He does not own securities in companies that the writes about.

Does MAMMA.COM Know Best?

Mamma.com (MAMA) is already backing off its highs.  The company yesterday morning announced new video search features, and it has essentially seen its shares double in two days.  The industry people knew this was there already, so it is a wonder thatthe shares doubled on the news that was more PR than news.

Mama_5_day_chart_1

Here was the news yesterday:  Mamma.com (MAMA)……the Mother of all Search Engines, in conjunction with the Pixsy Media Search Platform, now offers its users video search capabilities on www.mamma.com. By providing visual searching based on relevance, categories, photos and videos, Mamma users are given a key tool in today’s search experience. Users can enter a query into the Mamma.com search box, hit the Videos tab, and pull highly relevant results from numerous video content providers including YouTube, Revver, StupidVideos.com, AddictingClips.com, Blastro, BusinessWeek, Grouper, MetaCafe, Reuters, Sharkle, Roo Media, USA Today, and many more.

Jon C. Ogg
December 13, 2006

As Problems Deepen, Qualcomm Brings In New Blood

Stocks:  (S)(QCOM)(TXN)(BRCM)(NOK)

Qualcomm has promoted one of its own to chief operating officer and brought in a former Sprint executive to be group president. The move is odd because Sprint has adopted WiMax for its next generation phones, a move that is seen as a threat to  Qualcomm’s dominance in the wireless chip world. Perhaps the Sprint executive can share some of his experiences in the company’s choice to move to WiMax.

Qualcomm is in a mess, but the company will not admit it. The International Trade Commission has just announced that it is siding with Broadcom in a patent dispute with Qualcomm. Broadcom is asking for an import ban on phones that use the technology. Probably bad for Qualcomm if that happens.

Qualcomm is still in a legal battle with its largest customer, Nokia. And, Texas Instruments has complained that the fees that Qualcomm charges for its techology are "higher than the agreed-upon standard of "fair, reasonable and nondiscriminatory," according to Reuters.

TI’s recent downward guidance for 2007 would also seem unfavorable to Qualcomm, given the number of chips that Texas Instuments sells into the mobile phone market. As TradingMarkets points out: "The cell phone industry is no longer going gangbusters. Subscriber growth is slowing in mature markets like Japan, Korea, and Western Europe, according to the investment research firm Morningstar. People who want handsets in such markets are looking for replacements instead of new phones." Industry forecasts are for cell phone sales growth to drop to under 10% in 2007 after a spurt of over 20% in 2006.

Qualcomm’s stock is down to just above $38. It has traded as high as $53 over the last year. If the company does not clean up some of it myriad problems, that stock could certain drop below its annual trough of $33.

Douglas A. McIntyre can be reached at douglasamcintyre@247wallst.com. He does not own securities in companies that he writes about.

Cramer’s IPO’s: Guidance Software Vs. IPG Photonics

Last night Cramer was discussing two IPO’s favorably that both priced.  One of his two "hot issues" priced above, but one didn’t make the range.

Guidance Software (GUID) priced its 5 million share IPO at $11.50, under the $12.50 to $14.50 range.  Morgan Stanley and Lehman brought this deal public.  This is the forensic software and data recovery software company.

IPG Photonics (IPGP) priced 9 million shares at $16.50 for its IPO, above the $13.50  to $15.50 range.  Merrill Lynch and Lehman Brothers acted as lead managers, and co-managers were Needham, Jefferies and Thoams Weisel.  This is the fiber laser for industry company.

Once again, anyone that sets pre-established price bands on a deal should really be looking at the comparable news upun til the same morning as the IPO.  Cramer set some price parameters last night on these two deals and one is acting opposite from his call right off the bat.

Jon C. Ogg
December 13, 2006

IPO Pricings: Atlas Energy & DCT Industrial Trust

Atlas Energy Resources (ATN) priced its 6.325 million share IPO at $21.00, at the top of the $19.00 to $21.00 range.  This was a large syndicate: with Lead managers UBS, Wachovia, and A.G.Edwards; co-managers are RBC, FBR, Credit Suisse, McDonald & Co., and Stifel Nicolaus.

DCT Industrial Trust (DCT) priced its 16.3 million share IPO at $12.25, toward the higher-end of the $11.50 to $12.50 range and higher than the 15 million shares indicated.  Merrill Lynch and Wachovia acted as lead managers; co-managers were Banc of America, JPMorgan, and Morgan Keegan.

Jon C. Ogg
December 13, 2006

Pre-Market Stock News (DEC 13, 2006)

(ABM) ABM Indistries announced a 2M share buyback plan after beating EPS targets at $0.37 vs $0.29e.
(ADCT) ADC Telecom posted higher earnings, but was on tax benefit; lowered next quarter guidance; stock down 2%.
(ALXA) Aleca Pharma began phase IIb enrollment for its migraine studies.
(ATN) Atlas Energy Resources priced its 6.325 million share IPO at $21.00, at the top of the $19.00 to $21.00 range.  This was a large syndicate: with Lead managers UBS, Wachovia, and A.G.Edwards; co-managers are RBC, FBR, Credit Suisse, McDonald & Co., and Stifel Nicolaus.
(AXS) Axis Capital has a 3M share block coming from Trident II, LP.
(BBT) BB&T raised its dividend.
(BCP) Balchem announced approval of a 3 for 2 stock split.
(BKE) Buckle announced a 3 for 2 stock split and a $3 special dividend.
(BPO) Brookfield Properties priced a 30 million share secondary offering at $38.00, versus a $38.78 close yesterday.
(CAL) Continental and UAL (UAUA) are considering a merger.
(CCMP) Cabot Micro in patent case against DuPont.
(CDNS) Cadence Design announced a $500M share buyback plan.
(CE) Celanes reaffirmed 2006 and 2007 guidance, although the mid-points look under the middle of the street estimates.
(CBRL) CBRL Group announced the commencement of its previous Dutch Tender Offer for 5.4 million shares in a $42.00 to $46.00 range.
(CKR) CKE Restaurants $0.13 EPS vs $0.16e.
(CNVR) Convera named its interim CFO as permanent CFO.
(CPII) CPI International $0.35 EPS verses $0.25e.
(CPWR) Compuware announced a $200M share buyback plan.
(CRYP) Cryptologic won a pact with a new DTD Poker in the UK.
(CSCO) Cisco up 0.5% on new fiber to home initiative win in France.
(DCT) DCT Industrial Trust priced its 16.3 million share IPO at $12.25, toward the higher-end of the $11.50 to $12.50 range and higher than the 15 million shares indicated.  Merrill Lynch and Wachovia acted as lead managers; co-managers were Banc of America, JPMorgan, and Morgan Keegan.
(DIRC) Ditech announced it is delaying its quarterly filing over its option review.
(DYN) Dynegy put 2007 EPS at $0.25-0.43 vs $0.31e.
(EBAY) eBay announced an unlimited calling plan for Skype.
(EXAS) Exact Sciences announced positive colrectal test results.
(GMTN) Gander Mountain received equity financing of $50M to open new stores.
(GOOG) Google is creating a new market for its stock options where the public can buy and sell option prices, from the GOOG employees.
(HLT) Hilton gave guidance out to 2009 for EPS growth.
(IPGP) IPG Photonics priced 9 million shares at $16.50 for its IPO, above the $13.50 to $15.50 range.  Merrill Lynch and Lehman Brothers acted as lead managers, and co-managers were Needham, Jefferies and Thoams Weisel.
(LEAP) Leap Wireless announced Cricket is available in Portland.
(MATK) Martek Bio $0.12 EPS vs $0.10e.
(MEH) Midwest Airlines gets $11.50 merger per share offer from AirTran (AAI).
(MINI) Mobile Mini Storage put 2007 EPS guidance at $1.52-1.57 vs $1.54e.
(PFE) Pfizer won FTC approval for the sale of its consumer products unit to J&J.
(PH) Parker Hannifen announced retirrement of its COO.
(POZN) Pozen said the FDA wanted more information after the resubmission to the June 8  "Approvable Letter" on Trexima, and plans to submit the data before the end of the month.
(QI) Qimonda has positive article in Barron’s web article.
(RVBD) Riverbed announced a government contract win in Korea.
(SAI) SAIC announced $0.26 EPS vs $0.23e; will repurchase up to 40M shares.
(VRTX) Vertex said it won a $15M milestone payment based on its Hepatitis C trial results.
(VTSS) Vitesse announced it is delaying its quarterly filing over its option review.
(YHOO) Yahoo! starting new search pact with IBM to compete against Google.

Select Analyst Calls (DEC 13, 2006)

AHG cut to Sell at Oppenheimer, cut to sell at Citigroup.
APU raised to Hold at Citigroup.
AXP started as Outperform at KBW.
BBY cut to Neutral at Prudential.
BKD raised to Buy at Citigroup.
BYD started as Buy at Deutsche Bank.
CC cut to Underweight at Prudential.
CHKP reitr Outperform at CIBC.
CLEC started as Outperform ($11 target) at CIBC.
CLS cut to Neutral at Cowen.
COO cut to Mkt Perform at Piper Jaffray.
CR cut to Underweight at Lehman.
CSV cut to Peer Perform at Bear Stearns.
CYH cut to Neutral at B of A.
DO started as Outperform at Morgan Keegan.
DRRX started as Buy at Jefferies.
EFX cut to Mkt Perform at KBW.
EROC started as Outperform at Wachovia.
ESCH started as Outperform at CIBC.
FGP cut to Sell at Citigroup.
GNTX cut to Sell at Citigroup.
GSAT started as Outperform at Wachovia.
GSF started as Outperform at Morgan Keegan.
HMY raised to Overweight at JPMorgan.
IPHS started as Outperform at CIBC.
JBHT cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank.
MA started as Underperform at KBW.
MBI cut to Neutral at JPMorgan.
MU cut to Sell at A.G.Edwards.
OFIX started as Buy at B of A.
OMX started as Buy at B of A.
ORBC started as Outperform at Cowen & Co; started as Buy at UBS.
RIG started as Outperform at Morgan Keegan.
SGMS started as Peer Perform at Bear Stearns.
SPH cut to Hold at Citigroup.
SPLS started as Buy at B of A.
TOA cut to Neutral at UBS.
TSN cut to Underweight at JPMorgan.
UHS cut to Neutral at B of A.
WEBX started as Neutral at Goldman Sachs.
YRCW cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank.

Ebay Tries To Get Back Some Of Its Skype Money

Skype is going to start charging for calls to landlines and cell phones in the US. These calls, which were free, will now cost $30 a year.

Skype users will probably be all bent out of shape. They have viewed the service as a populist gravy train for free calling anywhere, anytime.

But, EBay did pay $2.5 billion for the VoIP company and it would probably like to get some of that back.

It is still open to debate whether the "click to call" service that allows Ebay vendors to talk to buyers using Skype makes any sense. The value of 136 million registered users is also in question, since almost none of them have paid anything for the service.

But, if they all pay $30….

Douglas A. McIntyre can be reached at douglasamcintyre@247wallst.com. He does not own securities in companies that he writes about.