Daily Archives: April 13, 2007

Cramer’s Stealthy Uranium & Inflation Plays

On tonight’s MAD MONEY on CNBC, Jim Cramer had a stock that is leveraged to inflation: you buy Gold, Art, Collectibles.  He says you can buy Sotheby’s (BID-NYSE) because it is in a duopoly in the world now.  Cramer did say that this is actually in a secular trend of permanency where the rich are getting richer and richer.  He says this will help as more and more super-high-end items will sell.  He says their margins are huge and any extra business they get from prices rising goes straight to the bottom line.  He said he’s been behind this one for a long time and it is up 100% since then.

On a call-in Cramer said he also liked Ralph Lauren (RL-NYSE) since it is reacquiring all of their global licenses outstanding.

Cramer also came out discussing that Uranium has gone throught the roof.  He already gave a pick on Energy Metals (EMU-NYSE) back in February, and here’s what he said then.  He has two stocks that you can speculate on in the sector.  He says that you can extract Uranium from Phosphate.  It costs $50.00 per pound to do it (very expensive historically) but with Uranium at $113 per pound then you can look at Mosaic (MOS-NYSE) and CF Industries (CF-NYSE).  There are unintended consequences though because it can drop the price drastically.  Cramer noted that these companies have both done this in the past, and he said he likes them even if Uranium prices come back down.  With the number of nuclear power plants coming online, Cramer thinks that will be a big win.

Google Acquires DoubleClick; Who’s Next?

Stock Tickers: GOOG, YHOO, AQNT, VCLK, TFSM, TWX, MSFT

Google did after the close announce it was paying $3.1 Billion to acquire DoubleClick (DCLK).  So they are going to trump Microsft (MSFT-NASDAQ) and Yahoo! (YHOO-NASDAQ).  What this does is give Google a much mnore diversified advertising model, and it should grow their internal agency advertising operations. 

We noted a while back when the DoubleClick deal was first surfacing that this should increase the perceived values in DoubleClick’s competitors.  We even titled this "After DoubleClick; Who Could Be the Next Buyout Target?" and made several refences after.

aQuantive (AQNT-NASDAQ), ValueClick (VCLK-NASDAQ) and 24/7 Real Media (TFSM-NASDAQ) are all competitors.  DoubleClick in the hands of Google would potentially make DoubleClick the most valuable and entrenched company in the online ad space arena, but it would potentially increase the relative value of these others.  This was pre-market on April 2, so here are the price comparisons with the APR 2 being the OPEN price listed by NASDAQ on that day:

VCLK: $2.6 Billion market cap; Online advertising and programs for large advertisers and ad agencies in Media, Affiliate Marketing, Comparison Shopping, and Technology. APR 2 $26.46; today $29.50.

AQNT: $2.2 Billion market cap; Online advertising for large direct advertisers and ad agencies: Digital Marketing Services, Digital Marketing Technologies, and Digital Performance Media. APR 2 $28.08; today $28.52.

TFSM: $408 Million market cap; used to be referred to as “the poor man’s DoubleClick” and was the most direct competitor in the past. Banner and online media ads for advertisers and ad agencies. APR 2 $8.08; today $8.58.

Earlier this week, Jim Cramer even went on and said that AQNT and VCLK have 33% and 31% upside based on a DoubleClick being bought after going private.

Microsoft and Yahoo!, and even Time Warner’s (TWX) AOL, may have just been put in the position that they all "have to" look at these competitors. 

Jon C. Ogg
April 13, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

S&P: Sell Yahoo! and Hold Google (YHOO, GOOG)

Standard & Poor’s has keyed in today on both Yahoo! (YHOO-NASDAQ) and Google (GOOG-NASDAQ) ahead of the earnings reports next week.  Analyst Scott Kessler is the one making this call at S&P, and this is their "equity research" instead of the debt research.

On the Google (GOOG) position, S&P Reiterated its 3-STARS (HOLD) rating ahead of its Q1 results after the market close on Thursday, April 19. S&P puts gross revenues of $3.65 billion and EPS of $2.86, and believes they translate as modestly higher than those of the Street, which estimates net revenues and EPS excluding stock-based compensation. S&P believes that Google’s continuing marketshare gains support our first quarter estimates; but S&P also believe margins in the first quarter and going forward could be restrained by large distribution deals, content-related payments, and expenses related to YouTube. At 40-times S&P’s 2007 EPS estimate, it feels Google as reasonably valued.

On the Yahoo! (YHOO) position, S&P Reiterated its 2-STARS (Sell) rating ahead of its first quarter results after the market close on Tuesday, Apr. 17. S&P sees revenues of $1.2 billion and EPS of $0.11, roughly in line with the Street consensus. It believes the Panama search technology upgrade aided search-related metrics and financial results, but thinks the near-term benefits of Panama are perhaps being overestimated at this point. It remains optimistic about the newspaper consortium and the recent Viacom win, but notes that Yahoo’s display business is  facing pressure from social media. S&P concludes that it thinks YHOO shares are overvalued at 54-times its 2007 EPS estimate.

We normally wouldn’t cover just a couple of reiterations from a negative Internet analyst, but S&P equity research is frequently deemed by most on the street as being independent and free from any of the inherent conflicts of interest that often occur at other Wall Street brokerage firms.

Jon C. Ogg
April 13, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Google To Buy DoubleClick For $3 Billion

Google (GOOG) will apparently buy huge ad serving firm DoubleClick for $3 billion.  The move would be a blow to Microsoft (MSFT) which has been trying to buy the firm to build up its presence in the online ad market. A purchase by Google would move it into the heart of the display advertising business. It currently dominates the market for search text ads.

BtoB recently wrote that "Getting into the advertising business in a bigger way is what Microsoft has to do to compete with Google," 

It is a deal the Microsoft could not afford to lose.

Douglas A. McIntyre

The 52-Week Low Club

Irwin Financial (IFC) Banking company has poor quarter based on mortgages. In Michigan no less. The worst place in the world to loan money. Join the club. Drops to $16.42. The 52-week high was $23.

Wireless Facilities (WFII) Keeps coming back to the club. Could become lifetime member. Company provides engineering and services in wireless market. Options backdating problems and more class actions suits that you can shake a stick at. Down to $1.01. The 52-week high was $4.53.

Ligand Pharma (LGND)  Biotech firm. Activist investor recently sold shares. Company also had pieces sold off recently and large payout to shareholders. Stock now down to $6.97 but for some good reasons. The  52-week high was $14.24.

Cost Plus (CPWM) Home furnishing company may restate earnings. Down to $8.52. The 52-week high was $18.11.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Cisco Dribbles Out Some More Good Comments

Cisco Systems (CSCO-NASDAQ) is trading up on comments made by Charlie Giancarlo, Cisco’s Chief Development Officer, in a Bloomberg interview today (link here to the website) based on comments that the company is at the high-end of its longer-term growth rates (of 10% to 15%) and on notes that customers are still in the early stages of their upgrade cycles.  BUT……. Investors should keep in mind that he is not one of the usual suspects that drives market news.  This shouldn’t be interpreted as any message to derail the move at all.  But it would be good to know "how different" this really is from previous company comments. Shares are now up 3.5% at $26.85 on the day and have now traded more than 60 million shares.

Jon C. Ogg
April 13, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Cramer Loves Cable Companies

On today’s STOP TRADING segment on CNBC, Jim Cramer said he was wrong yesterday about Gap Inc (GPS) and said that it was Banana Republic, not Old Navy that was doing well.

In cable, Charter Communications (CHTR), Comcast (CMCSA), and Time Warner (TWC) that triple play and the potential collapse of Vonage is helping these for a very long-lived rally in the sector.  He thinks they could double in valuations per subscriber from 5-years ago.  TWC has fallen behind lately but he likes it.  CHTR was at $2.80 and mispriced and is now way up from his recent features.  Cramer said that Comcast shouild buy Charter Communications if you listened to the Brian Roberts conference call.

Rite Aid (RAD) is one that Cramer said the analysts are going to have to raise numbers and the stock is just buying time before it goes up to its next plateau.  He even said the company has posted its "last" bad quarter and should be clear from here. 

Jon C. Ogg
April 13, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Rumor Friday (APR 13, 2007)

Stock Tickers: SLM, NNI, FMD, MEDI, HAL, WHT, MEH, AAI, COT, IPS, PALM, DELL, NFI, BCE, AA, DOW, WYN, NDAQ, GFI, KR, ABN, BNI, DCX

What preceeds "Merger Monday"?  The answer isn’t really Sunday.  It’s "Rumor Friday," of course. 

This week we even heard about private equity guys admitting the deals are getting crazy because of the financing available.  By the size of this list, you can tell that there is no way under the sun that these can all occur.  It’s truly an M&A world gone wild.  Oh well, here is the list of stocks that have been rumored to be in merger discussions or potential targets this week, and there are probably a dozen or more others:

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INFY: Employee Growth Getting Tougher

By William Trent, CFA of Stock Market Beat

Infosys Technologies (INFY) Announced Results for the Quarter and Year Ended March 31, 2007, and what struck us was not sales or earnings, but employees:

  • Gross addition of 5,992 employees (net 2,809) for the quarter by Infosys and its subsidiaries
  • 72,241 employees as on March 31, 2007 for Infosys and its subsidiaries

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DRAM Pricing Debacle Hits Samsung

Samsung posts weak Q1 on chips, outlook tough – Yahoo! News

Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd. (005930.KS), the world’s top memory chip maker, posted a slightly bigger-than-expected 15 percent drop in first-quarter earnings as margins tumbled, and predicted more price pressure to come.
The April-June outlook remains grim as Samsung, the most valuable technology company outside the United States, forecast a further 5-10 percent drop in DRAM (dynamic random access memory) prices in the second quarter.

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Market Comment From TheStockMasters

Bally Total Fitness Holding Corp. (NYSE: BFT), how here is a stock we have made fun of, time and time again.

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Can MathStar Inc. sell their FPOA technology or will they disappear?

From TheStockMasters

For all you 52-week low bargain shoppers

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MEDI Downgraded at Friedman Billings

From Ticker Sense

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Mauboussin: Why the Market is Smarter Than You Are

From Investment Intelligencer

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McDonald’s – A Defensive Stock Goes On Offense

McDonald’s  (MCD) continues to impress everyone with their same-store sales figures, and the stock continues to hit multi-year highs.  Worldwide comps were up 8.2% in March, highlighted by European sales up 11.2%, Asia-Pacific regions at 8.9%, and U.S. sales up 6.2%.  The company also announced a near 10% bump in net earnings estimates for the 1st quarter, to $0.62 per share.  If McDonald’s does hit that EPS number, it would represent 26% earnings growth year-over-year. 

Any notes pertaining to MCD being “just a defensive play” or “just a value stock” had best be written in pencil.  26% earnings growth would be tremendous in a quarter where total growth in the S&P 500 is estimated to be in the single digits.  Already one of the best cash flow stories out there, McDonald’s should be getting even better as it executes on its strategy of transitioning more of the company-owned stores (about 20% of their total) into franchisee owned locations. 

Ah yes, and then there is the coffee, which almost acts like a free call option on the stock.  Their push into gourmet coffee products is going to be big, sincere, and thorough.  They get massive leverage throughout their supply chain, so we can expect McDonald’s to trounce Starbucks (SBUX) on pricing.

How much market share could McDonald’s take from Starbucks after one year, if we assume that McDonald’s eventually does a nationwide rollout?  That’s going to be a key question for investors in both companies going forward.  Starbucks’ dreams of 10,000 new stores in the next four years could be in serious jeopardy if they notice the ROI on new stores dropping by a third, or even a quarter. 

For their part, McDonald’s doesn’t have to do much to make a strong impact on the bottom line, as they have a full menu to offer any customer that walks through the door.  Coffee product margins will serve to raise overall operating margins, and could lead to change many people’s perceptions of the long-term multiple MCD stock can achieve. 

We used very conservative multiples in our break-up value analysis of MCD stock, which could be up for a re-visit.  Even at the 52-week high of $47.24, there could still be upside to the stock from here. 

MCD is set to release earnings on April 20th before the open.  We shouldn’t expect much deviation in the actual EPS based on what the company is saying today, but the positive numbers from today could free up the stock to move higher in the coming weeks. 

Ryan Barnes

April 13, 2007

Ryan Barnes can be reached at ryanbarnes@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Vertex Options Active Ahead of Data Presentation

Vertex (VRTX-NASDAQ) is seeing quite a bit of trading today ahead of a data presentation tomorrow.  This one may have been very active all on its own, but since Dendreon (DNDN-NASDAQ) made its exponential move traders and chat rooms keep placing biotech bets on what they hope is "the next Dendreon." Unfortunately we do not have the super-fresh short interest data, but the short interest rose to 10.44 million shares in MARCH from 8.95 million in February.  There has been a lot of safety concerns, so be sure to keep both sides of the story in mind.

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Critiquing Smart Money’s “Ten Stocks for the Next Ten Years”

Stock Tickers: AAWW, CELL, HPOL, OSIS, PWAV, SIRO, TTEK, UNFI, VAS, WTS

The new cover story for the May 2007 Smart Money Magazine is an interesting one as "The Ten Stocks For The Next Ten Years" and is one that will carry some interest from small cap and growth-oriented investors for those seeking secular trends.  This was posted online earlier this week, but this is the sort of issue that you usually want to look at a few days after the dust settles and over the first weekend that the magazine is actually on the stands.  Many will have seen this online or will have seen some of it this morning on CNBC or elsewhere, but most readers of the hard copy will probably be reviewing this 10/10 list over this weekend.

The screening criteria used by Smart Money was not a focus on the classic P/E ratios or book value, and the names are an interesting mix of companies.  Many of these are well known and have been around for some time, and some are rather obscure names that the public doesn’t follow that closely. The screen put a greater emphasis on price/sales ratios; its looked for a classic small-cap range from $300 million to $2 billion in market value; a history of rising sales of at least 10% a year over the past five years. That screen produced 150 names that they chose 10 stocks from.

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McDonald’s Kicks A–

McDonald’s (MCD) global same store sales rose 8.2% and US same store figures were up 6.2%.

That can’t be good news for Yum (YUM), Burger King (BKC), and Starbucks (SBUX). People can only eat one place at a time.

Douglas A. McIntyre

IPO Pricing: Comverge, Inc. (COMV)

Comverge, Inc. (COMV-NASDAQ priced its IPO of 5.3 million shares at $18.00 per share.  The company used Citigroup as the lead underwriter; and co-managers include Cowen & Co., RBC Capital, and Pacific Growth.

Comverge has all the earmarks that the current investment and social climate like to hear: it is a provider of clean energy solutions that enhance grid reliability and enable utilities to increase available electric capacity during periods of peak energy demand on a more cost-effective basis than conventional alternatives.

Due to its segment, this was a premium pricing.  The original range was $15.00 to $17.00 for only 4.7 million shares.  This represents a 33% stake in the company if the 795,000 share overallotment is exercised, so there is an implied market capitalization rate of roughly $329 million based on the IPO pricing before factoring in any premium opening price.

Jon C. Ogg
April 13, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Pre-Market Stock News (APR 13, 2007)

(AAPL) Apple is delaying its new Leopard OS by 3 months due to pulling programmers to work on iPhones.
(ANDS) Anadys Pharma showed positive data  in hepatitis B studies.
(AYR) Air Castle names new CFO.
(CBS) CBS fired Imus too.
(GE) General Electric $0.44 EPS vs $0.44e; stock indicated up 0.5% pre-market.
(LRCX) Lam Research trading up 0.5% after beating earnings.
(MRK) Merck fell 1% after Arcoxia was rejected by the FDA panel.
(NLY) Annaly Mortgage positive on Cramer’s MAD MONEY.
(RL) Ralph Lauren is acquiring Impact 21, its Japanese apparel and accessories licensee.
(SKYE) Sky Pharma’s NDA was accepted by the FDA for Parkinson’s.
(SLM) Sallie Mae is up $6.00 on it potentially going private.
(SPP) Sappi Ltd. Positive by Cramer on MAD MONEY.
(XPRSA) US Xpress guides earnings lower.

Jon C. Ogg
April 13, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.