Daily Archives: June 15, 2007

Cramer Speculates in NVIDIA (NVDA), Sort Of

Cramer is still anti-Tech for the summer, but his speculation tech stock is NVIDIA (NVDA).  He said this just hit a new-52-week high.  It’s one of the few winners in the PC-supply chain because of high-end graphics chips that is taking market share from AMD’s (AMD) ATI unit.  Shares today were up 4.5% to $39.55 and traded up 0.5% to $39.75 after Cramer named it a speculative tech stock.  The reason this one isn’t up as much is that it is already worth $15.4 Billion in market cap and the market share gain is known.  Also speculating just because of a 52-week high has left too many people holding the bag.

Jon C. Ogg
June 15, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Cramer Speculates in CV Therapeutics (CVTX)

On tonight’s Mad Money on CNBC, Jim Cramer had his normal ‘Speculation Friday’ and talked CV Therapeutics (CVTX) for a speculative biotech in with Acadia (ACAD) and Nastech (NSTK).  Cramer said CVTX is a huge battle ground stock that makes small molecule drugs.  Last month it had 36% of the float short, but he thinks the bearish case just doesn’t hold up.  Cramer thinks the stock could explode into the $20’s because of earnings, or it could get acquired and go there.  Its Ranexa drug for angina is the driver now, but it could get approved as a diabetic treatment down the road.  It has a drug up for potential approval next year to detect cardiac disease. Cramer said it could fetch $20.00 to $36.00 per share if it was to be acquired.

Speculators and biotech investors should know that this one does lose money and it is expected to keep losing money: -$2.95 EPS for fiscal 2007 and expected to post -$1.31 in 2008 fiscal EPS.  This stock closed up over 5% today, and shares went up another 6% after-hours and after-Cramer to $12.08.  Its market cap at the close was $675 million and the 52-week trading range is $6.43 to $14.67.  For a history lesson, this has been public since 1997 and shares reached north of $80.00 back in 2000 to 2001.  This is one we can look at from before Cramer gave it the nod, and if we trust a "sometime in 2008 timeframe" then we can look at the JAN-2009 closest out of the money call options, or the $12.50 strike.  These didn’t trade today, but the closing levels looked to be $2.90X$3.20 with only 507 contracts in the open interest.  Also keep in mind that this stock experienced a mini-implosion back in March.

Jon C. Ogg
June 15, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Nintendo’s Next Wii Strategy for Investors

Stock Tickers: NTDOY, GME, MSFT, SNE, ERTS, ATVI, THQI, MWY, TTWO

It’s no secret that Nintendo (NTDOY) has kicked some major, well you know what, with the strong sales of its two gaming systems: The Wii and the handheld portable DS system, plus all of the game titles.  When you look at a stock rather than the products, you may ask yourself "What can they do to keep their momentum rolling?".  After all, the stock in the US alone has more than doubled.  What got it here?

The sales got it where it is and NPD’s data was released Thursday showing that Nintendo took the top two spots in hardware, accounting for more than 760,000 units sold.  The Wii sold 338,000 units, compared to 155,000 Xbox 360 units from Microsoft (MSFT) and only 82,000 PS3 units from Sony (SNE).  Nintendo also took four of the top five game titles.  Total video game sales between software and hardware showed a 49% gain in May.  That is up from April’s 20% gain, both numbers being year over year.  These NPD numbers helped GameStop (GME) rally 5% on Friday.  Some video game title makers rose as well on the NPD data, even though some may actually have lost sales because of strong Wii sales: Electronic Arts (ERTS) +2.9%, THQ Interactive (THQI) rose 1.1%; Negative on the day: Activision (ATVI) saw a -0.9% drop and take-Two (TTWO) saw a 1.5% drop; Midway Games -0.5%.  Sony is considering a price cut to the PS3 to bump its market share.

Nintendo is a public company, but only ‘barely’ if you are a US investor.  Nintendo Co. LTD does have ADR’s, but the shares trade on the perpetually hated Pink Sheets under the ticker "NTDOY."  Go ask anyone that is Not in the financial markets for a living that invests in and trades stocks "Have you ever bought a pink sheet stock?".  There is probably a 90% chance they will not have, and there is probably a 50% chance they won’t even know what it means.  If they do, they probably will only get a 1-day old quote for the stock.

Video games are now bigger than movies as far as entertainment money is spent and it isn’t just teenagers.  Your’s truly is an Xbox 360 owner.  Most of the big video gaming companies are public.  The stock trades under the ticker "7974" on the Osaka Stock Exchange in Japan.  Shares are up 117% over the last year.   People would like to be able to invest in this but they don’t know how.  Too many US investors don’t even have the ability to buy shares on a foreign market.  Depending on what service you use, Nintendo has a $48 Billion market cap.

Nintendo might win over more investors if they would sell $1 Billion in ADR shares on either NASDAQ, NYSE, or AMEX.  If nothing else, the company would at least be able to make it possible for US investors to trade the stock.  This has been an ongoing thought and it has been puzzling for years.  The company might claim it doesn’t want the US regulation, but the truth is that most of the regulation in the US out of the SEC pertains to US-domiciled companies.  Sure, maybe once the NYSE or NASDAQ create their global kiretsu’s of an exchange hodge-podge then investors will have an easier time investing in Nintendo if they want to.  Would this guarantee a higher stock price? No, of course it wouldn’t guarantee that.  But it would make the stock much more liquid and make the company more open to investors.  Until then………..

Jon C. Ogg
June 15, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

This Week’s Top Ongoing News (June 15, 2007)

Stock Tickers: YHOO, EBAY, AMZN, S, F, MOT, BIDU, SSW, FMCN, BA, NVO, CLWR, SIRI, XMSR, INTC, ADBE, INTC, BX

The real big news this week was the stock market itself.  A tame PPI and an even tamer CPI took away the wall of worries that was being dealt to the market because of higher and higher long-term bond yields.  But there was some key stock and sector news that is not just a one-time event.  These are some of the big stories that may stay in the news:

PRIVATE EQUITY, MAY NEED TO STAY PRIVATE
If Blackstone can’t keep itself out of the media, they are going to have a tough time coming public.

INTEL…AT 16 MONTH HIGHS….WHO’DA THUNK IT?
Intel (INTC), the old dead chip/processor giant….it’s back, and it’s the top DJIA performer this week.

ADOBE, TIME FOR A BREATHER?
It looks like Adobe Systems (ADBE) high valuations are starting to catch up to it.…might be time for a breather.
Shares closed down close to 3% Friday and the 52-week highs appear elusive.

XM & SIRIUS FIND A WINNING MERGER STRATEGY
Sirius (SIRI) and XM (XMSR) managed to get the former chief economist from the FCC to write a document that was submitted to the FCC showing how a combined ‘XSMearious’ would actually foster more competition in radio.
SIRI closed up a tad on Thursday, but ramped on Friday.

Q2 EARNINGS SLAUGHTERHOUSE STOCKS TO WATCH
With two-weeks to go before the end of the quarter, we listed some companies which were at-risk of having a tough quarter when they report next month.  Amazon.com (AMZN) AND Yahoo! (YHOO) were among them, as was Ford (F). Motorola (MOT) and Sprint (S) made the list as well.

DID CLEARWIRE FIND SALVATION?
Clearwire (CLWR) figured out the perfect model….get the satellite TV duopoly of DirecTV (DTV) AND EchoStar
(DISH) to sell it near-WiMAX.

CRAMER FINDS PICKS IN UNATTRACTIVE GROUPS
Jim Cramer doesn’t trust investing in China, and doesn’t trust them, and doesn’t want to invest his own money
there.  But because he keeps getting inquiries, he picked 5 stocks that you can actually own in China.  He also can’t stand Big Pharma drug stocks, but he’s got a few safe names you can look at.

HOW CAN WE HATE PLANES?
Boeing has identified a $2.8 TRILLION market opportunity out of commercial aircraft over the next 20 years.  It gets harder and harder to argue with aerospace bulls when forecasts like this start coming out of the company.  This is even after reports that they were having some plane construction issues.

INTERNET SHAREHOLDER WOES:  eBay (EBAY) is still in the middle of its "Buy It Now" patent fight with MercExchange LLC.  Terry Semel is somehow managing to survive so far.  Yahoo! (YHOO) hasn’t fired him yet, and he survived the annual shareholder meeting.

52-Week Low Club (June 15, 2007)

Stock Tickers: CNTF, DPZ, DVSA, IOMI, MEG, MGPI, MNI, VSE

So what if the stock market came back from a scare almost back to new highs.  There are always a handful of stocks that manage to get their plaque put up in the 52-Week Low Hall of Shame…..

China Techfaith Wireless (CNTF) managed to close atthe same level as a prior low. $5.35 (unch).

Domino’s Pizza  (DPZ) slipped down to its previous lows now that it paid out dividend, it’s one leveraged food chain. $18.81 (-$0.01)

Diversa Corp. (DVSA), $5.22 (-$0.06)…hopefully your portfolio isn’t Diversa-fied.

IOMAI (IOMI)…should be My oh my! $2.06 (-$0.03).

Media General (MEG) $33.88 (-$0.95)…..dipped after a ‘general earnings warning.’

MGP Ingredients (MGPI) $16.56 (-$0.19)…natural grain products developer….do you think ethanol demand is driving up their costs of business?

McClatchy (MNI) $26.48 (-$0.13)….newspaper readers still falling….the cranage continues.

VeraSun Energy (VSE)….maybe alternative energy is overrated.  It managed to close up above the old lows, barely, and right at the end of the day. $14.40 (+$0.02).

Jon C. Ogg
June 15, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Should Blackstone Withdraw or Delay Its IPO?

With all of the negative press and attacks this week, you have to wonder what the Blackstone Group LP private equity going public is about.  We have received inquiries about how good or bad this IPO is going to be for those who purchase IPO’s.  The truth is that there is still a lot of calendar before the launch of the IPO hitting the NYSE, but the news is mounting.

The reality is that the media is sort of treating Blackstone and its top tier management with almost a feeding frenzy and it is becoming borderline like that of a tabloid.  This week, Stephen Schwarzman has come under fire for issues such as spending $400.00 for stone crab at lunch, paying lower tax rates than his chef, and being irritated by a servant’s squeeky shoes.  As long as it is all above board and doesn’t affect his business and dealings, then it should not matter.  But the fact is that people in general love watching the rich suffer in the media, and this is adding to the fire.  Otherwise we wouldn’t be hearing comparisons to Napolean and wouldn’t be hearing about strategies like "killing the competition" and unbelievable pay packages.  After the "Big Koz" got busted for $20,000 shower curtains and a $1 million birthday party, you just can’t help but understand why a media crush would keep referring to his lavish birthday party where Rod Stewart sang.

Congress is now attacking the tax structure of these large LP’s going public, and this directly impacts and targets Blackstone.  It also targets Fortress investment Group (FIG-NYSE), and its shares are down more than 6% today almost at its lowest point since coming public and down more than one-third from teh post-IPO highs of $37.00. 

China taking a $3 Billion stake for almost 10% probably didn’t help matters in Washington D.C.  With KKR and Carlyle and others all watching to see how this goes so they too can come public, it would seem this is coming to a head.  If Blackstone does go the distance to the actual IPO, it’s getting harded and harder to believe that the entire culmination of events this week is not going to lower some of the pre-IPO valuations and/or premiums.

Will this be the end or the unravelling of private equity and hedge funds?  Of course not.  But when "private" is open for public review and under fire it just makes you wonder if you haven’t seen a top in a trend that has been rampant over the last year.

Jon C. Ogg
June 15, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Cramer Outlines Not Chasing Intel (INTC)

Jim Cramer came out on TheStreet.com video today discussing the reasons he thinks you should not chase Intel (INTC) higher on today’s gains.   We earlier noted as being up after the Goldman Sachs upgrade to a 16-month high, but Cramer is taking a bit of the air out of it since shares are up 12% since he booted it in his feature for his "New Four Horsemen of Technology." 

It didn’t sound like Cramer hates Intel or anything like that in his video today. He just thinks that the relative gains you can see from here are not worth buying the stock.  You can buy Intel for $0.50 or Google (GOOG) that can go up $100.00.  He thinks this won’t even perform as well as a Caterpillar (CAT) and other infrastructure and equipment plays.  Cramer did note that Intel has an upper hand obviously over AMD, so it isn’t as though he’s trying to only paint a negative picture.  Cramer appears he’s still able to influence this trade because shares have backed down $0.12 in just over the last hour after they were at $24.10 around noon.

Jon C. Ogg
June 15, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Intel: Best DJIA Performer This Week & 16-Month High (INTC, AMD)

Intel (INTC-NASDAQ) isn’t just at a 52-week high, its at its highs back to January/February 2006 back when the Advanced Micro (AMD-NYSE) war and scare was really going against it.  We now know what this did to AMD financially as Intel’s closest competitor couldn’t really take much more market share right now if it wanted to.  You just have to wonder if Otellini or Bryant from Intel have called Goldman Sachs to thank them for the stock upgrade this morning.

Shares of INTC are up 3.7% at $24.10 mid-day on almost 100 million shares.  This actually looks like it is going to be the best performer in the DJIA this week with more than 10% gain since last Friday’s close.  So much for selling tech all the way up until August.  When Jim Cramer changed the "Four Horsemen of Technology" he noted that Intel had lost its way, and it was at $21.49 on that day (June 6) and shares are up 12% since then.  Sometimes you just can’t kick a giant forever just because it went down.  Shares are now up more than $7.00 or more than 41% from its 52-week lows.

Shares of AMD are down 1.1% at $13.62, and on lower than average volume.

Jon C. Ogg
June 15, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Options Expiration Weighing on Dendreon (DNDN)

Dendreon (DNDN) has seen a lot of the old hyperactive trading volume come out of the stock now that it is post-FDA panel review and post-ASCO.  The stock has barely traded 2 million shares so far this morning and there was only 1 day this week where shares almost traded 10 million shares. 

The drag today outside of less ‘event trading’ is that today is also options expiration date.  The June $7.50 Strike Price is trying to act as a magnet as that is the most active strike, the closest strike, and generally the one with the highest open interest.  As of last look, the open interest for the $7.50 strike was more than 76,000 in the June-07 $7.50 calls and more than 48,000 in the June-07 $7.50 puts.

So far these contracts are seeing minimal trading volume, and we’ll have to see if that picks up at the end of the day.  There has also been very little roll-over into the July-2007 expirations so far as the volume is less and the open interest is much less on the same $7.50 strike prices. 

Unless there is some major surpise data or some major undercurrent that isn’t known, it looks like traders are looking elsewhere for their volatility in the biotech sector. 

Jon C. Ogg
June 15, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

McDonald’s (MCD) Hits All-Time High, Starbucks (SBUX) Doesn’t

For a quick look at what Wall St. thinks about McDonald’s (MCD) and Starbucks (SBUX) and how each is doing selling coffee and breakfast foods, look at the share prices.

Today, McDonald’s hit an all-time high of $52.58. Starbucks is near an 18-month low trading at $27.75.

It was not always thus. Over the last five years, Starbucks is up about 140% and McDonald’s about 90%.

But, McDonald’s is catching up.

Douglas A McIntyre

General Motors (GM) Up 10% This Week

The General, as the company used to be called, General Motors (GM) is up 10% this week. It trades at $34.43. On Monday, it was as low as $31.06.

It is a gravity-defying performance. With home sales still suffering and fuel prices rising, The General marches on.

There has been a lot of action in call options that expire after GM’s negotiations with the UAW begin in September. There is also word that the union may be about to settle with GM’s former parts unit, Delphi. If workers at the parts company strike over labor issues, GM’s production capacity could be hurt.

But, 10%? The UAW has never been very likely to strike Delphi. It would be costly for the union as well as GM. And, if GM is idled, workers there may be hurt over time. No, the UAW is not anxious to walk out.

July crude hit $68 today.

Ten percent is a big number.

Douglas A. McIntyre

eBay Making PayPal More of a Financial Powerhouse

eBay (EBAY) is in the news twice this morning.  First off, Business Week is citing that the online auctioneer’s PayPal unit is becoming more and more like a bank and noted that it even has a banking charter in the European Union.  The company has already been into debit cards and has had credit pacts for some time.

Then this morning there is word that General Electric (GE) is partnering with eBay to offer an eBay brand of MasterCard in late June.  The fact is that the GE and payPal have already been partners for some time.  This card will at least have the same "1.00 equals 1 point" reward program for purchases that are onlin and offline.

eBay is going to do the promotion of the card and GE Money Bank will issue the card and provide customers service, billing and credit management.  Some may think this is a silly move, but the truth is that this will actually expand upon the business model.  eBay will merely need to send out emails to its millions and millions of customers, and they’ll get a cut of the finacial fees on top of the potential increased ability for more auction bids.  At this point for an ebay, it’s all about incremental growth and getting more and more out of your existing base while simultaneously looking for more avenues to grow.

Jon C. Ogg
June 15, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Hansen Natural (HANS): Goldman Sachs Says $52 On Its Own or $70 in Buyout

Hansen Natural Corp. (HANS-NASDAQ) was added to the Americas Buy List at Goldman Sachs with a potential 30% return expected based on a $52.00 price target because of new discounted cash flow and revised P/E targets.  Interestingly enough, Goldman said that Hansen could have significant upside as a takeover candidate, and based on the Vitamin Water purchase it could even fetch $70.00 per share.  Another bonus is the focus of management can focus on growth rather than the Budweiser distribution problems and the options investigations now that those are completed.  Goldman also noted that new products and expanded geography will help the top-line.   Shares of HANS are trading up almost 4% pre-market above $41.00.  Its 52-week trading range is $24.75 to $52.72, and the market cap as of the close was roughly $3.6 Billion.

Jon C. Ogg
June 15, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Pre-Market Stock News (June 15, 2007)

(ADBE) Adobe trading down 1% after beating earnings but issuing in-line guidance.
(BBW) Build-a-Bear lowered guidance; stock down almost 15%.
(CROX) CROCS Inc. trades ex-split today.
(DELL) Dell is still delaying quarterly filing and results.
(DLM) Del Monte fell another 1% on estimate cuts.
(DRA) Coinmach getting $13.55 cash buyout from Babcock & Brown.
(EPCT) EpiCept’s Azixa (MPC-6827) showed a wide degree of efficacy against multiple tumor types and in drug resistant cell lines.
(INTC) Intel trading up almost 2% on Goldman Sachs upgrade.
(NVS) Novartis said a lumiracoxib study showed significantly less impact on blood pressure than Ibuprofen in osteoarthritis patients with controlled hypertension.
(SNE) Sony is considering a PS3 price cut to compete with Wii and Xbox 360.
(SWHC) Smith & Wesson traded up 5% after posting large earnings gains.

Pre-Market Analyst Calls (June 15, 2007)

ABCO started as Outperform at CIBC.
AXTI started as Buy at First Albany.
BKD started as Buy at Jefferies.
BOOM started as Buy at First Albany.
CQB started as Buy at Morgan Joseph.
EXBD started as Sector Perform at CIBC.
FCN started as Outperform at CIBC.
FRE raised to Outperform at FBR.
HCBK started as Underperform at Bear Stearns.
HNSN started as Buy at Oppenheimer.
HOMB started as Sector Perform RBC.
INTC raised to Buy at Goldman Sachs; stock up almost 2%.
IIVI started as Buy at First Albany.
KNDL raised to Buy at Jefferies.
LGCY started as Buy at Oppenheimer.
NFS raised to Buy at Citigroup.
NFLX raised to Buy at Soleil.
PNX cut to Hold at Citigroup.
PTRY raised to Buy at Jefferies.
SFG raised to Buy at Citigroup.
VLY started as Peer Perform at Bear Stearns.
WSO cut to Hold at BB&T.

Jon C. Ogg
June 15, 2007

With Vista Sales Hurting Acer, Dell (DELL) Can’t Be Helped

Acer, one of the world’s largest PC makers, told the Taipei Times that it was revising its sales growth rate down because the demand for Microsoft (MSFT) Vista was below expectations. Commercial sector sales have been especially slow.

The commercial sector is the greatest strength of US PC giant Dell (DELL). Assuming that it is encountering an environment similar to Acer’s, it may mean that the turnaround that the market is counting on will be slow to bear fruit. Acer’s sales tend to be strongest in Europe and Asia.

With Dell’s shares up 20% this year, any leak in Vista demand could create a very tough headwind.

Douglas A. McIntyre

The Wii Rides Again

According to industry research firm NPD, Nintendo sold 338,000 Wiis in May, compared to 82,000 Sony (SNE) PS3s and 155,000 Microsoft (MSFT) Xbox 360s.

For Sony, the beatings will continue until morale improves.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Intel (INTC) Upgraded On AMD (AMD) Smack Down

Goldman has upgraded Intel (INTC) to "buy" from "neutral" because it would appear that rival AMD (AMD) will have to begin to outsource its chip manufacturing. MarketWatch writes that it will be easier for Intel to "retain a sustainable product advantage," by keeping design and manufacturing under one roof.

AMD almost ruined itself by trying to keep up with Intel on capital spending, operating its own facilities for making chips.

AMD is already trading at it 52-week low. With Intel taking back market share, dark clouds are gathering for AMD. That is not likely to change.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Dow Jones (DJ) Controlling Family: More Excuses

The members of the Bancroft family & company have rejected suggestions from their own lawyers about how to best protect the independence of The Wall Street Journal if Dow Jones (DJ) is sold to Murdoch & Co.

The plan would apparently have created a committee of five members, controlled by the Bancrofts and other Dow Jones interests. This committee could hire and fire WSJ editors. Murdoch’s News Corp (NWS) would have no direct control over the process. The program also called for the committee to set news budgets for some period of time.

The overall outline for a sale of the company would also have put two members of the Bancroft family onto the News Corp board.

After reviewing the proposals, the Bancrofts seem to think that it was not enough. The protections were too thin.

The safeguards are not likely to get thicker. At some point, Murdoch will look at the suggestions and see that he has the costs of owning Dow Jones, but none of the benefits. No one has ever accused Murdoch of being stupid, and this will not be an exception.

DJ shares would be back to $30 soon.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Europe Markets 6/15/2007

Markets in Europe were up at 6 AM.

The FTSE rose .7% to 6,694. BP (BP) was up .9% to 588. GSK (GSK) fell .5% to 1308. Unilever (UN) rose 1.6% to 1573.

The DAXX rose .7% to 7,905. Deutsche Telekom (DT) rose .7% to 13.82. Siemens (SI) rose 1% to 103.8.

The CAC 40 rose .7% to 6,089. AXA (AXA) rose 1.7% to 32.69. Renault rose 1.9% to 115.75.

Data from Reuters

Douglas A. McIntyre