Daily Archives: October 3, 2007

Sprint (S) CEO Forsee Under Seige

Sprint Nextel (S) CEO Gary Forsee may be lingering in his office these days. Heading outside could be dangerous. Relational Investors LLC, which owns almost 2% of Sprint’s shares, is being less than polite about disapproving of Forsee’s performance. The Wall Street Journal quotes the head of Relational as saying, "We have lost confidence in Gary Forsee."

Investors are impatient with the poor performance of Sprint’s share price and its inability to add subscribers while rivals AT&T (T) and Verizon Wireless pack on new customers every quarter.

Relational and it supporters are equally upset with Forsee’s plan to spend $5 billion to build a national WiMax network. But, that is where they miss the point.

Sprint (24/7 view) has little chance of adding a large number of new customers or making headway against it larger competitors without some unusual advantage. WiMax, with its ultra-fast wireless capacity, could power both handsets and PCs on the Sprint network. The technology is faster than the 3G platform used in traditional wireless broadband installations. It is supported by R&D work and investment capital from Intel (INTC) and Motorola (MOT).

If WiMax works, it will change the face of wireless communications. If not, Sprint’s shareholders will not be much worse off than they are today.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Cramer’s Overlooked Medical Billing Solutions IPO (ATHN, MDRX, QSII)

athenahealth (NASDAQ:ATHN) is a Web 2.0 version of medical billing, and it is like Allscripts Healthcare Solutions (NASDAQ:MDRX) and Quality Systems Inc. (NASDAQ:QSII).  He likes that the company has very high loyalty and renewal rates and this is a subscription services and this currently has $2 Billion in physician revenue under management that it gets a cut of.  He thinks it can earn $0.74 next year and even with the premium forward earnings multiples that it is actually cheap on a comparable basis to its growth.

Is this really an overlooked IPO?  No.  It came public at $18.00 and closed at $34.07.  He thinks this could go to $40.00 on its own, but also thinks a larger company could acquire it.  He also believes this will get positive analyst coverage soon.  This one ran so much that you cannot think this was overlooked at all.  This may not be that well known to the public, but traders have been playing this one over the last ten trading sessions since its IPO.  Shares rose 8% to $36.80 in after-hours on Cramer’s feature.

Jon C. Ogg
October 3, 2007

Were Verizon’s (VZ) Fiber TV Subscriptions Inflated?

In a suit filed in U.S. District Court, an advertising agency has charged Verizon (VZ) with inflating the number of FiOS fiber-to-the-home subscriptions that it has by adding "pending" customers to the count.

According to The Wall Street Journal "Digital Art Services Inc., an advertising company based in Great River, New York, charged Verizon with fraud."

Verizon is in the process of spending $23 billion to put its fiber network so it will pass 18 million homes. The company is gambling much of its future on being able to compete with cable companies for voice, broadband, and TV service. In June, the company added its one-millionth FiOS subscriber. A senior official at Comcast (CMCSA) recently noted the competition with the big telecom was heating up.

Verizon does not need to be viewed as having fuzzy subscription numbers. It has too much on the line. No pun intended.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Cramer’s New Gold Stock (ABX, NEM, AUY, BHP)

On tonight’s MAD MONEY on CNBC, Jim Cramer reviewed a stock that offers both protection and upside:

Barrick Gold (NYSE:ABX) has the most upside according to Cramer in gold stocks.  The weak dollar is driving up gold prices in dollar terms, and he thinks the yellow shiny stuff itself is heading higher and even said he thinks you could see $1,000.00 gold.  Barrick is not going to hedge going forward after having been hedged for many years, and Cramer thinks this is a bullish signal on their opinion of gold.  Their costs have risen significantly to find gold, but the company has been able to hold costs against revenues and they have less political risk mining geographics.

Cramer said he used to prefer Newmont (NYSE:NEM), but he’s disappointed that it hasn’t converted on growth.  Barrick closed at $39.41, and its 52-week trading range is $26.94 to $41.34.  After Cramer discussed this it rose nearly 2% in after-hours to $40.10.

Jon C. Ogg
October 3, 2007

NutriSystem Shareholders Lost More Weight Than Their Clients (NTRI)

NutriSystem, Inc. (NASDAQ:NTRI) has lowered expectations for its preliminary financial results for its third quarter. The company simultaneously announced that it authorized a $100 million increase to its existing stock repurchase program and it has entered into a $200 million credit facility.  But the damage is done:

  • Revenues are now expected to be approximately $188 million.  While this is a 21% increase over the prior year’s quarter, this is well under the $206.6 million estimate.
  • New customers are expected to decline by 7% (yr/yr) to approximately 218,000 for the direct business.
  • New EPS Range $0.62 and $0.66 versus consensus of $0.82.
  • Cash and equivalents expected to increase by $35 million in the quarter, with $117 million in cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities expected at quarter end.
  • Michael J. Hagan, Chairman & CEO: “After a very strong first half of the year, our results for the third quarter didn’t meet our expectations. We continue……."  After that it doesn’t really matter.

Shares were down 1.4% today in regular trading to close at $47.57, toward the low end of the $40.82 to $76.20 trading range over the last year.  Shares have just gapped down after reopening and are currently trading around $38.00.  If this holds, these prices are new 52-week lows.   At some point someone may look at this as a value stock, but not today.

If you watch CNBC or watch other television you’ll notice that its advertising has been much more sporadic than steady compared to prior months.  Maybe this buyback add-on will help stabilize the stock. This was probably somewhat assumed by many major brokerages.  Lehman downgraded this stock back in July, but a boutique called Broadpoint apparently just upgraded this on Monday. 

Jon C. Ogg
October 3, 2007

Jon Ogg produces the 24/7 Wall St. SPECIAL SITUATION INVESTING NEWSLETTER; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Trimeris Gives Up On Biojector (TRMS, BJCT)

Trimeris Inc. (NASDAQ:TRMS) is feeling a little after-hour pressure.  Roche and Trimeris today provided an update on their combined efforts to offer a needle-free device which has been investigated for use with FUZEON® (enfuvirtide).

Based on comprehensive assessment of the clinical program, as well a significant delay in achieving U.S. regulatory approval due to the time required to generate additional data, Roche and Trimeris are withdrawing a supplemental application for approval to market the Biojector® 2000 device.

This device is known as “B2000” and is manufactured by Bioject Medical Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ:BJCT) for use with FUZEON.  Importantly, Roche and Trimeris believe that patients who are currently administering FUZEON with the device through an existing program or clinical trial may continue to do so, provided that the precautions in the current FUZEON label regarding use with B2000 are followed. Roche and Trimeris noted that they recognize that B2000 is commercially available for general use.

There is no activity seen in BJCT shares. Trimeris (TRMS) originally saw a 10% drop in after-hours, but now shares are are down only about 4% at $7.82.  Shares were up almost 4% in regualar trading to close at $8.21 today.  Trimeris has a $182 million market cap and it is actually profitable.  This may be a negative headline, but it has other oars in the water.  Over the last year shares have traded as as low as $5.34 and as high as $13.85.

Jon C. Ogg
October 3, 2007

The 52-Week Low Club

King Pharmaceuticals (KG) Completes sale of a business unit. Down to $11.25 from 52-week high of $22.25.

Worldgate Communications (WGAT) Future of video phone company continues to concern. Falls to $.30 from 52-week high of $1.60.

Globalstar (GSAT) Satellite company shares fall to $6.12 from 52-week high of $17.68.

TLC Vision (TLCV) Eye care company shares fall to $2.94 from 52-week high of $6.10.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Interest in Circuit City Driving Shares (CC, SHLD)

Circuit City (NYSE:CC) is actually seeing its shares trade higher today.  This isn’t on the consumer rebirth, and it isn’t on the company turning itself around.  Today, Barron’s is reporting on its "Tech Trader Daily" that there are rumors that famed investor and fund manager Eddie Lampert is interested in acquiring the company.

Does this mean Sears Holdings (NASDAQ:SHLD) would buy it, or is it just Eddie and backers?  We can’t say and frankly we don’t want to speculate on the odds of which is or isn’t true.  We have looked at this quite frequently for a BAIT SHOP pick as a potential takeover candidate (now our "Special Situation Investing Newsletter") but we have never been able to make the case for the value.  Since the company shot itself in the foot it now even potentially has a severe relevance issue (24/7’s view).

If anyone could add or find value in this electronics retailer it would be Lampert.  But there are certainly better fishing spots out there.

Jon C. Ogg
October 3, 2007

Jon Ogg produces the 24/7 Wall St. SPECIAL SITUATION INVESTING NEWSLETTER; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Merrill Fires Execs Over Fixed -Income Woes

Merrill Lynch (MER) fired the global chief of its fixed-income division and one of his top two U.S. deputies after losses in credit markets, according to Bloomberg.

Merrill will not cop to it but Osman Semerci, head of fixed income, currencies and commodities, and Dale Lattanzio, co-head of the division’s Americas operations are out.

Look for an exodus of fixed-income management from other large banks and investment houses. Someone has to be blamed for all the losses.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Globalstar’s Woes (GSAT)

Looking into recent IPO’s is usually more than interesting as far as financial investigations are concerned.  There are usually the year’s best performers among the names, but there are also some of the year’s most over-hyped piggies in stock-land. 

In our normal screen of 52-week and high and low stocks, we have noticed how the fairly recent IPO of Globalstar Inc. (NASDAQ:GSAT) keeps making the list of 52-week lows.  This one came public at the end of 2006 and if you review its chart you’d guess the company never issued one bit of positive news.

Globalstar is the satellite phone and data communications provider.  This is what is left of the "Old Globalstar" from the 1990’s.  They compete(d) against Iridium and both companies used to be public.  When Globalstar was in the pre-IPO stage the company stressed that this was not the predecessor company, although that doesn’t mean they didn’t assume the entire operations. 

The September short interest was 3.324 million shares and the company’s market cap is $485 million.  Shares are down 7% today at $6.50 on stronger than normal volume, but this is at least above the $6.12 intraday lows.  This one came public at with 7.5 million shares at $17.00, and that was 1 million shares more than originally proposed and in the middle of the $16 to $18 price range.  The prior post-IPO trading range before today was $7.05 to $17.68.

Globalstar isn’t expected to post a profit this year or next by the fewanalysts that cover the stock and this fell out of analyst favor earlythis year.  Iridium does claim to be profitable on their site.Calculating values on a company of this sort is quite difficult.  Thegood news is that satellites and the contracts that are in place forsatellites have value.  But that doesn’t ensure a win for holders ofthe common stock.

There is no way to know if this will keep heading lower or not, but companies that hit new lows frequently find it quite difficult to reverse a trend.

Jon C. Ogg
October 3, 2007

Jon Ogg produces the 24/7 Wall St. SPECIAL SITUATION INVESTING NEWSLETTER; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

China Market Madness: More Shares Rally

It must be something in the water. A broad range of China stocks are up again today. Most are moving on no news.

China Architectural (RCH) Up 58% to a new hight of $21. The 52-week low was $4.80.

China Shenghuo Pharmaceutical (KUN) Trading up 51% to a 52-week high of $13 against a $3.10 low over that period.

E-Future Information (EFUT) At least the rally is on some news (24/7 view). Up 51% to $31.35.

China Natural Resources (CHNR) Spiked up 44% to 52-week high of $48.88. A low of $6.50 for that period.

Rally caps in the East.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Countrywide’s (CFC) New PR Program Get Pounded

24/7 Wall St. is not the only medium that took exception to Countrywide’s (CFC) hiring of Burson-Marsteller to lift employee morale and help the mortgage company look better to the outside world.

As The Wall Street Journal’s David Gaffen points out, the program has received vocal opposition. WSJ.com quoted one observer as saying “Rather than cheerleading for continuing such aggressive behavior, perhaps the company could change its tone and behavior.”

Douglas A. McIntyre

Constant Contact IPO: Instant Gapper (CTCT)

Constant Contact, Inc. (NASDAQ:CTCT) has finally opened for trading at what appears to be $26.00 as the first print. This IPO was originally supposed to open  at 11:00 AM but faced delays in each five minute segment.  11:35 AM EST was the opening time. 

Its premium IPO opened at an even higher premium after 6,700,000 shares of its common stock priced at $16.00 per share, above the $12.00 to $14.00 previous indication. CIBC World Markets and Thomas Weisel Partners acted as joint book-runners for the offering, and William Blair, Cowen & Co., and Needham were co-managers.  5,829,839 shares were cold sold by the company and 870,161 shares were sold by certain stockholders of the company.

For those of you who don’t know Constant Contact, this company is one of the leaders in on-demand email marketing campaigns.  In fiscal 2006, revenue was $27.6 million and its net loss was $7.8 million.  In the six months ended June 30, 2007 revenue was $21.1 million and its net loss was $5.5 million.  Here is a more detailed backgrounder with some of the relevant data from an amended filing.

We are getting ready to release our "Watch List"of small-cap Internet stocks to readers of our "Special Situation Investing Newsletter" in the coming days.  These stocks are not active takeover candidates or active restructuring stocks today, but these are the smaller internet stocks we think could easily become prey under the right circumstances.

Jon C. Ogg
October 3, 2007

Jon Ogg produces the 24/7 Wall St. SPECIAL SITUATION INVESTING NEWSLETTER; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

e-Future Shows Traders Still Chasing Chinese Stocks (EFUT)

e-Future Information Technology Inc. (NASDAQ:EFUT) is seeing shares post huge gains this morning on active volume after announcing that Beijing Tourism Group ("BTG") has licensed e-Future ONE VPM (Visual Process Management) Solution to centralize purchasing and optimize business processes of its selected business segments. Financial terms are not disclosed, go figure.

BTG is a collection of the greatest number of famous brands in China and has established six major business segments: Hotels, Scenic Spots, Shopping, Dining and Cuisines, Automobile Services, and Travel & Tours.  BTG is one of China’s largest tourism groups in hotels, travel services, automobiles, shopping, dining and cuisines, MICE, entertainment and scenic spots business.

Shares are up big as traders continue hunger for anything-China again.  The stock EFUT is up 40% on now over 2 million shares at $26.70, and shares have traded in a $24.42 to $28.38 range today and $10.52 to $49.90 range over the last year.  This is one of those hi-flyers from the end of 2006 that had seen shares in a steady staircase down all year until mid-September.

When you look at the scope of the e-Future clients already, you’ll wonder if this stock jump is more hype than Dollars (or Renminbi). e-Future claims it is now serving more than 800 clients, including over 500 retailers and over 200 distributors and Fortune 500 companies that do business in China: Procter & Gamble, Johnson & Johnson, Kimberly-Clark, the Chang’an Motors and Ford Motors joint venture, B&Q- Kingfisher China, GUCCI China, Aeon-JUSCO China, PARKSON China, SOGO China and Mickey’s Space stores (Disney franchises), Belle, Lianhua, Suning, Wuhan Zhongbai, Wushang Group, Bubugao, Yonghui and China Duty-Free Stores.

China may be the hottest thing going and the market may have exponential upside.  But a massive jump like this is traders chasing stocks up.  This has been seen over and over.

Jon C. Ogg
October 3, 2007

Is Tata The Leader In Race To Buy Jaguar And Rover

With its US vehicle sales down 20% in September, Ford (F) could use some quick cash. It may need it to fund a union controlled health care fund to get the liabilities off of its balance sheet. But, it will have to come up with billions of dollars to make the change, a change which should help its North American P&L.

The Independent is reporting that India conglomerate Tata, which owns Tata Motors, has the inside track to buy Jaguar and Rover from Ford. As the paper points out  "from Ford’s perspective, it is an admission of failure. The Detroit giant bought the companies in the hope of mounting a serious challenge to big luxury car makers like BMW. It will absorb a massive loss to get rid of them."

Tata may end up in a venture with Fiat to produce parts for the two car brands. Because their production volume is low, component costs can be high.

The question remains, though, if Tata thinks it can make money on the brands, why can’t Ford?

Douglas A. McIntyre

OSI Systems Wins More Cargo Inspection Orders (OSIS)

OSI Systems Inc. (NASDAQ:OSIS) announced this morning that it won two separate government contracts worth roughly a combined $30 million.  These are cargo screening orders for Rapiscan Eagle Mobile, Rapiscan Eagle Gantry and Rapiscan Gamma Radiographic Detection Systems Gantry systems.  The systems are to be deployed domestically and internationally for the inspection of inbound and outbound shipping containers and trucks.

OSI Systems generated $532.28 million in fiscal JUNE-2007 revenues, so this is representative of more than 5% of revenues.  The few analysts that follow the stock are expecting the fiscal JUNE-2008 revenues to be $590 million.

What is sad is that if you go back through time the company has grown revenues from 2005 to 2006 to 2007 from $385M to $$452.6M to $532M (and projected to $590M in 2008).  But this stock has never really made a major ramp as shares closed yesterday at $23.50 and have traded over the last year at $18.53 to $29.80.  At the June 30 equivalent for 2005, 2006, and 2007, the stock prices were as follows:  $15.79, $17.77, and $27.35 respectively. The current stock price reflects a post-earnings near 20% haircut, although shares have regained much of the losses.

For such a strong homeland security play in an area that actually NEEDS to be improved exponentially compared to so many other wasted spending projects in the homeland sector, this stock has never really managed to break out.  If anyone ever gets tough or serious on port container and cargo security, this is one to watch.  AND, if the government ever looks like they are going to get serious about this initiative then OSI Systems could find itself acquired by larger companies.  If the government continues to putter around this topic, well shares are representative of that currently.

Jon C. Ogg
October 3, 2007

Pre-Market Stock News (Oct. 3, 2007)

(AAI) AirTran load factor rose 6.7% to 68.5%.
(BEAS) BEA Systems stake raised to 11% by Carl Icahn.
(BOBE) Bob Evans s-s-s rose 0.4%.
(CPST) Capstone Turbine received a microturbine order for for $3.8 million in Germany.
(CTCT) Constant Contact IPO priced at $16, above the $12 to $14 range.
(DB) Deutsche Bank disclosed it will take over $3 Billion in charges.
(DUSA) DUSA Pharma’s Levulan Kerastick received marketing approval in South Korea.
(MBRX) Metabasis rose over 10% on EU Orphan drug status for liver cancer drug study.
(MFA) MFA Mortgage priced a 7 million share secondary offering at $7.90 per share.
(MU) Micron traded down 2% after earnings on cautious commentary.
(OSIS) OSI Systems won a $30 million government contract for carge inspection.
(PFCB) P.F.Chang’s lowered guidance; stock down over 10%.
(PNRA) Panera s-s-s +1.5%; sees $0.35-0.37 EPS vs prior $0.32-0.38 range.
(RPM) RPM Corp. $0.53 EPS vs $0.55 est.
(SVR) Syniverse wins data clearing deal from VimpelCom in Russia.
(TASR) Taser received a follow-on order from U.S. Marshalls.
(VZ) Verizon launches iPhone answers for 2007 holiday season.

Jon C. Ogg
October 3, 2007

Pre-Market Analyst Calls (Oct. 3, 2007)

AMD started as Underweight at Morgan Stanley.
APH started as Buy at B of A.
ARW started as Neutral at B of A.
AVGN started as Neutral at Credit Suisse.
AVT started as Neutral at B of A.
CIEN raised estimates at Goldman Sachs; raised to Buy at Merrill Lynch.
CNX started as Buy at UBS.
CRL raised to Buy at UBS.
CVD cut to Peer Perform at Bear Stearns.
CYT cut to Hold at Jefferies.
CXG started as Buy at UBS.
DVAX started as Outperform at Credit Suisse.
GM raised to Neutral at B of A.
GMCR started as Outperform at Piper Jaffray.
GME cut to Hold at Citigroup.
GWW started as Neutral at B of A.
IART started as Outperform at RBC.
INTC started as Underweight at Morgan Stanley.
KALU raised to Outperform at Bear Stearns.
MOLX cut to Neutral at B of A.
MSM started as Neutral at B of A.
NDAQ started as Buy at Jefferies.
NRGN started as Neutral at Credit Suisse.
NVDA started as underweight at Morgan Stanley.
NVT cut to Neutral at B of A.
PH cut to Sell at UBS.
PMCS raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley.
RIMM target raised to $100 at Credit Suisse.
RIO cut to Neutral at JPMorgan.
SKT started as Neutral at Goldman Sachs.
SVNT started as Outperform at Credit Suisse.
TD cut to Peer Perform at CIBC.
TKC raised to Buy at Merrill Lynch.
TEL started as Buy at B of A.
TIN raised to Overweight at Lehman.
WCC started as Buy at B of A.

Jon C. Ogg
October 3, 2007

Citigroup’s (C) Prince: Fire Them All

The FT writes that Citigroup (C) is investigating why it had $3.3 billion of losses and writedowns in its markets and banking business. No one has lost a big job over the Citi news. Not yet, anyway.

“There is no accountability,” said an internal critic at Citi.

It is highly likely that someone will take the blame, if only to protect Mr. Prince’s job. News accounts say that some senior traders in NYC may have already been replaced.

But, Citi is not like a ship. The captain does not take responsibility for those below him in the ranks. He just investigates them.

Douglas A. McIntyre

TechCrunch And Huffington: Who Will Buy The Big Blogs?

The name brand blogs. The big ones. Huffington. TechCrunch. GigaOm. Boing Boing. Ars Technica. SeekingAlpha.

AOL has already bought Weblogsinc. It owns popular blogs including flagship Engadget.

But, with the internet operations at newspapers and some other tradition media companies making very little headway, the big blogs take on a very significant attraction. They reach audiences in great numbers. They have credibility. They are not expensive to run. And, they make money.

Take Huffington. According to research firm Compete, it has an audience almost as large as the online version of the Philadelphia Inquirer. As a part of a larger newspaper organization like The New York Times (NYT) or Washington Post (WPO), that audience could probably be much bigger. NYT and WPO need a Huffington or two. Their internet revenues are under 10% of their total and not growing fast enough to keep up with falling print sales. Huffington has raised $10 million in VC money. What is it worth? $100 million. Maybe more. Worth it for The Times or The Post. With the trouble that are in, yes.

The big tech blogs are even larger than Huffington.

According to internet measurement service, TechCrunch has an audience about a third of CNet (CNET). And CNet is in bad shape. It’s blog business has not caught on. In early 2006, its shares were $16. Now they trade at under $8. Do they need a way to improve their reach and image with the online tech crowd?

Alexa actually puts TechCrunch’s reach at double wsj.com. If Mr. Murdock’s News Corp (NWS) is going to start offering Dow Jones (DJ) print products for free, having a large tech news property could be a big deal. Tech site Ars Technica also has a larger reach than wsj.com. Another major tech blog that could enhance the overall web presences of Dow Jones.

In the core financial news field, SeekingAlpha is the largest stock market blog. It runs close to 100 stories some days. That is a lot of extra content, low priced content, for a company like Reuters (RTRSY), The New York Times, or Dow Jones.  More page impressions. A larger audience for online marketing.

The largest blogs will get offers. Too many big media companies need additional outlets and content on the web. The problem for the potential buyers is keeping the talent at the blog sites. Most rely on just one or two big names. But, that is not unlike the issue that TheStreet (TSCM) has with Cramer. He is the franchise. They have to give him incentives to stay.

The New York Times or Washington Post will stop by to see Huffington. It is just a matter of how soon.

Douglas A. McIntyre