Daily Archives: October 10, 2007

Someone Loses Big: Live Nation (LYV) Takes Madonna From Warner (WMG)

It appears that pop star Madonna is leaving Warner Music Group (WMG) for concert promoter Live Nation (LYV). The price tag is $120 million for 10 years. Live Nation will pay part in cash and part in stock, according to The Wall Street Journal. Under the arrangement, Live Nation will have" rights to sell three studio albums, promote concert tours, sell merchandise and license her name."

Some industry experts believe that each album would have to sell 15 million copies for LYV to get its money back. Lining up sponsors for events and tours could offset some of that.

WMG put on a brave face, but no one should be fooled. One large shareholder of Warner said he was fine with losing Madonna because the cost of keeping her may have been too high.

But, Warner should have gone the extra mile. There are only so many battles that the music company can afford to lose now. Its stock has fallen from $30 last June to under $10 late last month. The shares now change hands for $11.29.

The consumer move from CDs to music downloads is slowly killing Warner. It does not keep as much of a digital dollar as it does from a CD. And, each quarter a larger number of its customers move to platforms like the Apple (AAPL) iPod. Piracy has also eroded earnings.

Having a few big artists with enough star power to let Warner bring in money for sponsorships and merchandise will be critical to the company’s future. It can’t afford to let Madonna go no matter what it costs to keep her.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Cramer Now Calling For $750 Google…Or Is It $900?

On CNBC’s MAD MONEY tonight, Jim Cramer discussed Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) and said that it isn’t expensive despite many pundits calling it expensive.  The Lehman target of $714 and the Merrill Lynch target of $740 may seem high, but Cramer said his old $600 target that went recently to $701 is now at $750.00 so that he’s the highest target out there.  He even thinks ultimately it could even go higher to $900.00.  He thinks it is such a sustainable business that it isn’t even a growth stock.  This is one of Cramer’s "new four horsemen of tech" and even at a $200 Billion market cap it isn’t expensive, and he thinks that it is cheap compared to every stock in its league.  We just recently gave a forward multiple and read for what Google would look like if its stock instantly went to $700.00.

Jon C. Ogg
October 10, 2007

Is GE (GE) About To Sell NBC?

GE (GE) may sell its NBC Universal unit after the Beijing Olympics. So say the FT.

The paper writes "The fate of the NBC Universal entertainment unit, will be decided only after the Beijing Olympics, with executives at the US conglomerate ruling out a sale before August’s showcase event, according to people close to the situation." Speculation is that the business could be worth $40 billion.

GE, a big industrial and financial services conglomerate, has never been a good home for NBC. Its performance has often hurt the overall results of the parent company.

A sale or public offering of the unit would have to be viewed in light of GE’s tax situation and that of its shareholders. And, the company might benefit from selling the unit off in pieces, breaking the TV assets from the studio and the stations.

Douglas A. McIntyre

S&P Lowers Boeing (BA) on Delay, Sort Of….

BOEING (NYSE:BA) Downgraded to "BUY" from "STRONG BUY" by Standard & Poor’s Equity analyst.  S&P noted the Boeing first delivery of its new 787 in Nov.-Dec. 2008, compared with prior May 2008 expectation. S&P believes this delay reflects the complexity of the airplane, a tight aerospace parts market, and Boeing’s extensive use of suppliers for the 787.  While S&P now see more risk, it also sees Boeing’s commercial airplane backlog of over $207B as a major asset, particularly given recent problems at competitor Airbus. S&P has cut its 12-month price target price by $4.00 to a new $118.00 target based on the view that delivery delays will reduce near-term free cash flow.   Based upon the "Strong Buy" cut to "Buy" the ratings agency continues to view Boeing shares as attractive.

We noted earlier about how we had been looking at the maiden flight delays potentially bringing delays on deliveries.  This was somewhat trying to be factored into the markets.  But it caused some even wider problems for the stocks of its suppliers today.

Jon C. Ogg
October 10, 2007

Corel Dribbles Earnings (CREL)

Corel Corporation (NASDAQ:CREL) has released earnings and Non-GAAP EPS $0.31 & Revenues in the third quarter were $60.4 million, compared to estimates of $0.30 & $61.1 million.  The company’s tax charges and other charges generated a loss on a GAAP basis.  Here is the GUIDANCE for next quarter, which is also the year end:

  • Non-GAAP EPS $0.43 to $0.52 and Revenues of $66 to $70 million; consensus $0.54 EPS and $72 million revenues.

Unfortunately, soft top-line numbers in software companies rarely excite Wall Street; and weak revenues and earnings guidance ahead in software companies turn Wall Street the other way.  Graphics & Productivity products experienced double digit year over year growth for CorelDraw Graphics Suite, WinZip, Painter, Designer and iGrafx.  But that was then. 

This morning after reviewing the numbers it looked like this was so cheap that someone would see a "value stock" that looked cheap.  But in technology most stocks that appear to be "Value Stocks" end up being "Value Traps" that are exactly what they sound like.

The forward fiscal numbers still make the company sound cheap with $1.24 to $1.33 EPS & $244 to $248 million in revenues when you compare this to a $327 million market cap and $13.11 stock price.  But if it it is facing shortfalls over and over ahead, then this will be a stock that looks cheap and either stays cheap or gets even cheaper. 

This is a thin volume cult stock, but shares appear to have traded down about $4.5% in after-hours trading to $12.50; and the range is $11.90 to $14.51 over the last 52-weeks.  Its previous highs were up around $16.00 since coming back out as a public company in May 2006.  There might be some downgrades in the morning, barring anything not known. 

…..And to think Corel’s WordPerfect was once thought of as a "Office Suite" threat to a cardboard and plastic software company run by some guy named Bill Gates.

Jon C. Ogg
October 10, 2007

LAM Research Mixed Results (LRCX)

LAM Research (NASDAQ:LRCX) has released a partial earnings release, but due to its ongoing options review it is only showing earnings.  Revenue for the period was $684.6 million, compared to estimates of just under $676 million in revenue and compared to $678.5 million for the June 2007 quarter.

No formal guidance was offered.  Shipments for the September 2007 quarter were approximately $621 million compared to June 2007 quarter shipments of approximately $694 million.  The revenue numbers were acceptable, but the lower shipments may be a slight issue for some.  Preliminary gross margin was $343.9 million, or 50.2% of revenue and preliminary operating income was $197.9 million, or 28.9% of revenue for the September 2007 quarter.

Cash and cash equivalents, short-term investments and restricted cash and investments balances were $1.3 billion at the end of September. Total shares outstanding as of September 23, 2007 were 124,499,377. At the end of the period, deferred revenue was $225.6 million and the anticipated future revenue value of orders shipped to Japanese customers that are not recorded as deferred revenue was approximately $62 million.

Shares of LRCX closed up 2.3% at $55.01 in normal trading, but are trading lower by about 1% at $54.50 in after-hours trading.  Until (or IF) guidance is given the jury is going to be out on this one.

Jon C. Ogg
October 10, 2007

The 52-Week Low Club

Georgia Gulf (GGC) Chemical producers out of favor. Falls to $12.23 from 52-week high of $28.65.

TOUSA (TOA) Home-builder. Drops to $1.17 from 52-week high of $11.37.

Youbet Com (UBET) Horse-racing gambling Web site disclosed that the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement agency has obtained a warrant to search its HQ. Drops to $1.41 from 52-week high of $4.54.

Inphonic (INPC) Online seller of wireless devices recently replaced CEO. Down to $1.86 from 52-week high of $14.49.

Mobile Mini Inc (MINI) Portable storage company has bad day. Down to $21.46 from 52-week high of $33.65.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Origin Agritech (SEED) Makes Forbes List, Stock Up 50%

Marking one of the Forbes "best of" lists is a nice honor. but should it cause a company’s shares to move 50% without any other apparent news?

Origin Agritech (SEED) was listed on the Forbest "Asia 200 Best Under A Billion" feature on small stocks in the region. The magazine shows SEED with sales of $88 million and net income of $13 million.

SEED shares are up 55% at $12, giving the company a $279 million market cap.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Vonage’s Request For Verizon Rehearing Was Likely Expected (VG, VZ, S)

Vonage Holdings (NYSE:VG) announced today that the company has filed a motion for a review by the original three-judge panel or the full panel of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit sitting en banc of the September 26 decision in its patent litigation with Verizon (NYSE:VZ). En banc signifies a decision by the full court of all the appeals judges in jurisdictions where there is more than one three- or four-judge panel.  After the settlement with Sprint Nextel (NYSE:S), this was probably an event that could have been predicted.

These lawsuits are going to be severe for the company if it can’t get the issues resolved in an amicable way.  If it has too boost prices to stay afloat either too much or too many times it will drive customers away as the benefits will be less compared to today.  We saw the near doubling of the stock when the Sprint settlement (post-judgment) was announced.  If the company can prove they have the durability to survive and get the major cases behind it, then we could see another "off to the races" trade. 

Verizon obviously does not really want to settle at least in the same manor as Sprint.  This won’t be the first such attempt to get a do-over or to extend some form of an olive branch out.  Expect more news in the weeks ahead.  We probably won’t see the independent VoIP leader post results and subscriber/churn numbers for another month or so.  Vonage shares are down almost 12% today at $1.93.

Jon C. Ogg
October 10, 2007

More Dangerous Toys Found (WMT)(TGT)(COST)(SHLD)

Reuters writes that The Center for Environmental Health has been surveying toys sold by a number of retailers and has found Curious George dolls, back-packs and lunch boxes with excessive amounts of lead.

The news agency writes that "the advocacy group notified 10 retail store chains that they were selling toys with excessive lead in violation of the California law." That list includes Sears (SHLD), K-Mart, Target (TGT), Wal-Mart (WMT), and Costco (COST). The alleged violations may lead to lawsuits.

No word about how many of the products were made in China.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Boeing Design Partners Getting Whacked (SPR, BEAV, HON, COL, LMIA, TIE, PCP)

Shares of Boeing (NYSE:BA) are getting hit hard after the jet-maker and aerospace giant finally came clean about the delay of the Dreamliners.  The DJIA component is down 3% on the day and it has pulled the price-weighted DJIA down a bit more with it.  We have covered this wondering about the first flight delays having a cascading effect, but if you look at Boeing’s aerospace partners on the Dreamliner you will see that they are all being hit (and some even harder than Boeing):

  • Spirit Aerosystems (NYSE:SPR) is the ex-Boeing unit, which makes fuselage parts, shares down 4.8% to $36.50.
  • BE Aerospace (NASDAQ:BEAV) has cabin and seating contracts with Boeing, shares down almost 4% at $43.30.
  • Honeywell (NYSE:HON) has the cockpit award, shares down 2% at $60.00.
  • Rockwell Collins (NYSE:COL) has information management pacts with Boeing, shares down 3.3% at $73.35.
  • LMI Aerospace (NASDAQ:LMIA) has Boeing as principal customer for structural components, assemblies, and kits, shares down 3.5% at $27.65.
  • Titanium Metals (NYSE:TIE) has long-term Boeing titanium/metals supply pacts; shares down 1.7% at $33.29.
  • Precision Castparts (NYSE:PCP) manufactures aerospace structural castings, aerospace airfoil castings, industrial gas turbine castings, shares down 3.4% at $146.75.

There are other stocks that will be affected and impacted by this, but now the game is to figure out which of these companies will have to preannounce that the Dreamliner delay will hurt their earnings for one to two quarters out.

Jon C. Ogg
October 10, 2007

Jon Ogg produces the Special Situation Investing Newsletter and does not own securities in the companies he covers.

China Sunergy (CSUN) Get Bad Grade

Cowen has just come out with a report on China Sunergy (CSUN) titled "This Run Looks Overdone" from  analyst Robert Stone. He rates the stock "neutral" . He comments that CSUN has more than doubled from lows, but he believe investors overreacted to a supply pact and think the stock is ahead of itself.

Cowen believes 2008 estimates for production are about 95% covered by allocations, but a significant portion remains concentrated with Chinese polysilicon startups which are over 90% exposed to spot pricing. That is likely to keep pressure on margins yielding losses through mid-2008.

With some of the China stocks, negative news does not matter. CSUN is up almost 10% at $13.34.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Boeing (BA) Screws Up

Boeing (BA) kept saying that its new 787 Dreamliner would be delivered on time in May 2008..

Analysts, the press, and industry experts kept saying "no way". 24/7 Wall St. ran several articles saying the date was not realistic. Production was too far behind. Some parts suppliers were running late. The plane still had to go through a number of trials.

But, Boeing would not bend. It would make the date. Period. For some period of time before it told shareholders otherwise, the company must have known it would miss the date.

Boeing came out yesterday and said that they could not make the date. The 787 is delayed until November or December of next year. It should not have a material impact on financial results. But, shareholders got sucker-punched, which raises an interesting disclosure question.

The stock nose dived from $102 to $97.54 on the announcement.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Global Search Traffic Booms (GOOG)(YHOO)(MSFT)(BIDU)

A new study by ComScore shows that internet traffic to search websites is continuing to grow. Surprisingly, Asia ranks ahead of Europe and North America in total searches in August, news which may be good for Baidu (BIDU) investors.

Of the 61 billion searches done in August, Google (GOOG) had 37.1 billion of them, followed by Yahoo! (YHOO) at 8.5 billion.

ComScore writes that their August study found that more than 750 million people age 15 and older – or 95 percent of the worldwide Internet audience – conducted 61 billion searches worldwide in August, an average of more than 80 searches per searcher.

In more detail:

Worldwide Search by Region

August 2007

Total World Age 15+, Home and Work Locations*

Source: comScore qSearch 2.0

                                        Unique Searchers     Searches      Searches Per
Total Internet – By Region                   (000)             (MM)          Searcher

Worldwide                                     754,459           61,036             80.9

Asia-Pacific                                   257,952           20,295             78.7

Europe                                          209,678           17,846             85.1

North America                               206,278           15,976             77.4

Latin America                                 49,995             4,784              95.7

Middle East – Africa                        30,556             2,134              69.8

_______________________________________________________________________________

*Excludes traffic from public computers such as Internet cafes or access from mobile phones or PDAs.

Top 10 Search Properties Worldwide*

August 2007

Total World Age 15+, Home and Work Locations**

Source: comScore qSearch 2.0

                      Searches

Search Property         (MM)

Worldwide              61,036

Google Sites           37,094

Yahoo! Sites            8,549

Baidu.com Inc.         3,253

Microsoft Sites         2,166

NHN Corporation       2,044

eBay                      1,319

Time Warner           1,212

Ask Network               743

Fox Interactive           683

Lycos, Inc.                441

___________________________________________________________

* Search properties based on top 50 properties worldwide where search activity is observed. 

** Excludes traffic from public computers such as Internet cafes or access from mobile phones or PDAs.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Get Spint (S) To Merger With Clearwire (CLWR)

Red Herring suggested that Sprint (S) hire telecom pioneer and Clearwire (CLWR) CEO Craig McCaw to replace exiting chief Gary Forsee. But, McCaw has a day job, so that probably won’t happen.

Sprint has said that it will pay almost $5 billion to build out a national WiMax network to bring ultra-fast wireless broadband to its customers. Clearwire, financed by Intel (INTC) and Motorola (MOT) before its IPO, is building a network of its own. Depending on which Wall St. analyst is doing the math, Clearwire will have to borrow $2 billion or $3 billion to complete its network. The two companies have already agreed to "share" their networks by allow customers from one company to use the other’s wireless broadband footprint.

Most mergers are a 1 + 1 = 1.5. The risks of merging Sprint and Clearwire are daunting. Sprint’s current customers seem to hate the company and it is losing subscribers while rivals AT&T (T) and Verizon Wireless pick them up.

But, the number of big companies supporting WiMax worldwide is impressive. Nokia (NOK) has agreed to build base stations and has a stake in offering handsets as well. Samsung has also joined the alliance of companies pushing the 4G technology.

In short, there is a lot of weight behind making WiMax work.

Trading around $20, Clearwire has not been a big stock market success. Its shares got a nice lift to $35 when it announced its WiMax alliance with Sprint. But, the shares are off at $21. Clearwire’s current debt load is modest at $655 million, but, if it has to go it alone, that will rise. The company’s market cap is $3.4 billion.

Sprint’s market cap is $51 billion. Its revenue run rate is about $10.5 billion a quarter. Operating income in the June quarter was $316 million. The company’s debt load, at $21.7 billion, is fairly heavy.

Sprint and Clearwire are facing the challenge of AT&T (T) buying licenses from Aloha in the 700 MHz frequency covering 196 million people in 281 markets, including 72 of the top 100 metropolitan areas and all of the top 10 markets. The FCC is going to auction off more 700 MHz.spectrum in January. Access to this will provide wireless operators the ability to offer better wireless broadband which is tough competition for WiMax.

Sprint and Clearwire can face the competition separately and probably take a severe beating. Or, they can put together one company, It would not be surprising if Intel, Nokia, and Samsung would make strategic investment to help finance building the US WiMax network. Having a single company building instead of two would save hundreds of millions of dollars.

One thing is for certain. Sprint is running out of time.If a new CEO shows up at the end of the year, it may already be too late.

Douglas A. McIntyre

EMC Officers Sell $15 Million in Shares (EMC)

Insiders of EMC Corp. (NYSE:EMC) have sold more than 750,000 shares of the company stock for gross proceeds of more than $15 million before the cost basis was considered.  These aren’t a signal of a mass exodus or anything of the sort as this is part of a diversification and gradual divesting strategy under a planned share sale under the 10b5-1 filings.

  • EMC’s Joe Tucci, Chairman/President/CEO, sold 400,000 shares at $20.9979 as part of a 10b5-1 trading plan with an average cost basis price of $5.42.
  • David Goulden, CFO, sold 100,000 shares at $21.05 as part of a 10b5-1 trading plan with an average cost basis price of $7.70.
  • Elias Howard, President of EMC Global Services, sold 50,000 shares at $21.05 as part of a 10b5-1 trading plan with an average cost basis price of $13.18.
  • Arthur Coviello, President of RSA unit, sold 200,000 shares at $20.78 as part of a 10b5-1 trading plan with an average cost basis price of $7.65.
  • Paul Dacier, General Counsel, (by spouse) sold 6,676 shares at $20.78 as part of a 10b5-1 trading plan.  An average cost basis was not seen.

So it appears that if these are the only insiders selling under a previous 105b-1 trading plan, a planned share sale for diversifying out of total company exposure, that some 756,676 shares were sold by the company officers.  Keep in mind these are all relatively small percentages of the respective holdings and this is not out of the ordinary.  As you can tell by the 1% gain to a new multi-year high of $22.00 this morning, Wall Street is not taking this to be anything other than the obvious.

Jon C. Ogg
October 10, 2007

Big China Stock Movers (NINE)(CSUN)(CHNR), But Watch For 50% Correction

Stocks of companies based in China will not give it a rest. They dominate the list of largest price increases on US markets again today.

Origin Agritech (SEED) is up 29% to $10.

AgFeed (FEED) is up 10% to $12.

China Sunergy (CSUN) up 15% to $14.

Ninetowns Internet Technology (NINE) is up 16% to $6.10.

China Natural Resources (CHNR) is up 8% to almost $40. Trades at over 20x sales.

China Architectural (RCH) is up 13% to $23.

Some of these stocks are going to correct 50%. It’s just a question of when. Their valuations on any sane metric are out of line.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Valero’s Earnings Warning Looks Acceptable So Far (VLO, CVX)

Valero Energy Corp. (NYSE:VLO) said that tighter refining margins are going to cause the company to miss earnings expectations.  The new range of earnings expectations from the company is $1.30 to $1.40, well under the $1.91 estimate. 

These numbers are before a one-time gain related to a foreign subsidiary loan repayment or a payment for a stock repurchase program completed in July.  After items the new range is $1.25 to $1.35.  The company said that the lower throughput margins are primarily due to substantially higher feedstock costs resulting from increased premiums for light sweet crude oils and narrower discounts for sour crude oils and other feedstocks. In total, higher feedstock costs are expected to reduce the company’s throughput margins by approximately $700 million in the third quarter versus the same quarter of last year.  It also said that asphalt, lube oils, and petrochemical feedstocks, sold at much lower margins in the third quarter of 2007 than in the third quarter of 2006 as prices for those products did not increase as much as prices for crude oil.

There are still refineries operating under capacity as well.  The impact of Hurricane Humberto on the company’s Port Arthur refinery as well as operating issues at the company’s Port Arthur, St. Charles, and Ardmore refineries during the third quarter of 2007 are expected to contribute to lower throughput margins. The McKee refinery continued to operate slightly below capacity as the de-asphalting unit is expected to remain offline through the end of the year.

What is amazing here is that if you read the full release and took away the fact that this is an OIL COMPANY when oil is around $80.00 per barrel, you’d think you were reading about a chemical company that can’t pass on higher and higher costs.  That being the case, the fact that Valero is ‘only’ down 3% is probably a win. It definitely shows the climate for energy stocks is quite forgiving even on lower numbers.  Shares are trading down at $70.00 pre-market, down from a $72.19 close yesterday and still in the upper-half of its $47.66 to $78.68 trading range over the last 52-weeks.

Chevron Corp. (NYSE:CVX) is also only down 2.4% at $90.54, at the higher-end of its $63.00 to $95.50 52-week trading range, after its earnings warning on lower refining margins as well.  It’s still a buyer-bias by far in the energy patch if these companies aren’t hit harder than this on earnings warnings when energy prices are through the roof.

Jon C. Ogg
October 10, 2007

Jon Ogg produces the 24/7 Wall St. Special Situation Investing Newsletter; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Google (GOOG): Thanks For Nothing Analyst Call

Merrill Lynch was good enough to raise its price target on Google (GOOG) from $590 to $740.

Google closed above $615 yesterday.  This now makes for the highest of the recorded analyst price targets.  Recently Bear Stearns hiked its target to $700 per share, and Jim Cramer went with $701 to be the highest price target out there for one of his "new four horsemen of tech."   We just recently outlined what the company would look like if it suddenly had a $700 stock price.

Shares are up roughly 1% at $621.00 in pre-market activity at new all-time highs.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Pre-Market Stock News (October 10, 2007)

(AA) ALCOA $0.63 EPS after $0.01 charge vs $0.65 est.
(CML) Compellent Technologies priced 6 million share IPO at$13.50, above the $10 to $12 range.
(COST) Costco Wholesale $0.91 EPS vs $0.83 est. before $0.08 charge for deferred membership; Revenues $20.48B vs. $20.7B est.’ shares up about 4% pre-market.
(CSG) Cadbury Schweppes will spin off its beverage business instead of selling it, including Dr Pepper and 7Up in 2008.
(CVX) Chevron lowered guidance; stock down 2%.
(HELE) Helen of Troy $0.32 EPS vs $0.39 est.
(ICFI) ICF International was granted $4.8 million by U.S. Department of Health and Human Services.
(IP) International Paper lowered guidance; stock down 4% pre-market.
(MON) Monsanto -$0.18 EPS vs -$0.17 est.; stock down 2% on $2.20-2.40 EPS vs $2.47 annual est.
(ORCL) Oracle agreed to acquire LogicalApps, a provider of automated governance, risk and compliance controls management software, for undisclosed terms.
(PG) P&G Said it is reviewing its brand portfolio.
(SLM) Sallie Mae’s buyout offer expired and the J.C.Flowers-led group said the suit to seek the $900 million break-up fee is without merit.
(SNTA) Synta Pharma trading up on GlaxoSmithKline pact.
(VLO) Valero lowered guidance on higher feedstocks costs; stock down 3%.