Daily Archives: November 15, 2007

China Looks To US To Keep Its Economy Hot

Perhaps Americans thought they would never hear it, but the Chinese have admitted that US consumption is one of the critical engines of the Asian country’s 10% annual GDP growth rate. And, a possible slowdown of the economy here could bite into China’s expansion.

According to the FT "China’s commerce ministry warned on Thursday that a slowing US economy would trigger a drop in Chinese exports that would mark a “turning point” for China’s rapid economic growth."

It was ever thus. The Chinese now face the same challenges that the Japanese did in the 1980s. America is unavoidably the uber-consumer. It the appetite fails, the slowdown spreads.

Huang Yiping, chief Asia economist for Citigroup, said: “I agree with the government that a marked slowdown in the US would be very bad for China. We haven’t seen overcapacity or a so-called hard landing in China because it has been able to export all its excess capacity until now.”

Should the slowdown spread to the EU, and it will, China will be faced with twice the trouble.

The circle that is created is worrisome. Large US companies now rely on their China operations for some of their fastest revenue growth.  A slow US economy hitting China would undermine much of the international revenue of firms like Wal-Mart (WMT), GE (GE), and GM (GM).

A mess all around.

Douglas A. McIntyre

More Evidence of Corporate Credit Crunch Continuing (TLI)

LMP Corporate Loan Fund Inc., (NYSE:TLI) is a closed-end fund that makes money off corporate loans participation.  If you think the credit fallout isn’t weighing in on corporations, the news out of the closed-end fund today could be implies that companies are starting to feeling the crunch and that the trend isn’t a one-time event. 

LMP Corporate Loan Fund, Inc. announced a distribution from income of $0.089 per common share for the month of November 2007. This distribution is payable on November 30, 2007, to shareholders of record on November 23, 2007. The ex-dividend date is November 20, 2007.  Sounds harmless enough…. until you look at its history.

This has had a $0.092 dividend every month since January of this year.  The dividend had been rising for much of 2006 as the corporate climate was still incredible.  In June, 2006 the dividend was merely $0.0815 for the month and it was raised four different times before that $0.092 was reached.  Now that appears not to be stable.

Here is its statement:  The Fund determined that a reduction in the rate is appropriate to account for factors that negatively impact the Fund’s cash flow, including the decline in cash flow available from leveraged loans as the LIBOR rate declined in response to the recent FOMC interest rate reductions, along with an increase in borrowing costs associated with a widening of credit spreads in the Fund’s auction rate preferred stock issues. As a result, the Fund has decreased its distribution to more closely approximate the expected level of cash flow generated by the portfolio.

TLI shares closed down 1.1% at $11.75 today, and its 52-week trading range is $10.81 to $15.00.  This still has roughly a 9% dividend yield, although this has sold off about 8% since the highs of October.

Jon C. Ogg
November 15, 2007

Jon Ogg produces the 24/7 Wall St. Special Situation Investing Newsletter; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Autodesk Shareholders Wanted More (ADSK)

AutoDesk (NASDAQ:ADSK) has posted non-GAAP EPS of $0.49 on revenues of $538 million, while First Call estimates were $0.47 EPS and $536.14 million in revenues. Here is guidance:

  • Q4-2008 (Jan-2008 end): Non-GAAP earnings per diluted share are expected to be in the range of $0.52 and $0.54, and Net revenues are expected to be between $575 million and $585 million; Estimates are $0.53 EPS and $581.14 million in revenues.
  • Full Year Fiscal 2008: Non-GAAP earnings per diluted share are expected to be in the range of $1.89 and $1.91, net revenues are expected to be between $2.148 billion and $2.158 billion; Estimates are $1.89 EPS on revenues of $2.15 Billion.
  • Q1 for Fiscal 2009: Non-GAAP earnings per diluted share are expected to be in the range of $0.50 and $0.52, net revenues are expected to be in the range of $575 million and $585 million.
  • Full Year Fiscal 2009: Non-GAAP earnings per diluted share are expected to be in the range of $2.20 and $2.26, net revenues are expected to be between $2.425 billion and $2.475 billion. Estimates are $2.24 EPS on $2.46 Billion in revenues.

Simultaneously the digital design software maker announced its intent to acquire Robobat.  Robobat is a privately held company based in Grenoble, France that specializes in analysis, design, and steel and concrete detailing software for the structural engineering industry.  The purchase price is approximately $42.5 million in cash subject to a working capital adjustment.

The numbers looked ok on the surface, but it looks like holders wanted to see more to justify valuations for a somewhat steady business whose major growth days are behind it.  Shares closed down marginally at $47.46 in regulartrading, but are trading down 5% at $45.00 in after-hours trading.  Its 52-week trading range is $36.21 to $51.32, and before teh drop its market cap was $10.9 Billion.

These calculations are based upon today’s closing price.  Its current year P/E ratio is now about 25.0, despite a trailing P/E ratio being noted as 34.  Based on the forward guidance one-year out, its Jan-2009 multiple is 21.3 at the mid-point of guidance.

Jon Ogg produces the 24/7 Wall St. Special Situation Investing Newsletter; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

The 52-Week Low Club

Novastar Finl Inc (NFI) Poor earnings and possible delisting. Drops to $1.72 from 52-week high of $127.20.

Standard Pacific  (SPF) Home builder. Down to $3.66 from 52-week high of $30.52.

Fannie Mae (FNM) Bad loans worse than expected. Falls to $32.16 from $70.57.

Home Solutions (HSOA) Delays quarterly filing. Slips to $1.50 from 52-week high $8.24.

Peregrine Pharmaceuticals (PPHM) Problems will clinical trials still pushing shares down. Drops to $.44 from 52-week high of $1.40.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Intuit Holds Its Own, Despite Losses (INTU)

Intuit Inc. (NASDAQ:INTU) has posted revenues of $444.9 million, which is up 27% from the year ago quarter.  Its non-GAAP loss was -$0.10 EPS.  First Call had estimates at -$0.12 EPS on $437.5 million in revenues.  the losses are actually immaterial here as this is traditionally a throw-away quarter for the company.  Here is a break-down of the revenue segments, and the gains are listed as year-over-year unless specifically noted:

  • QuickBooks revenue was $146.9 million, up 9%.
  • Payroll & Payments revenue was $131.3 million, up 5%.
  • Consumer Tax revenue was $13.3 million, up 18 %.
  • Professional Tax revenue was $11.0 million, up 13%.
  • Financial Institutions revenue was $72.2 million and includes the results of Digital Insight, which was acquired in February 2007.
  • "Other" revenue was $70.2 million, up 11%.

Intuit reaffirmed its previously given revenue and earnings per share guidance for the second quarter of fiscal 2008: Revenue of $833 million to $848 million, or growth of 11 percent to 13 percent.  On a non-GAAP basis, diluted EPS is expected to be $0.34 to $0.36, compared with non-GAAP diluted EPS of $0.44 in the year-ago quarter.  Intuit would have expected second-quarter revenue growth of 8 percent to 10 percent and second-quarter non-GAAP diluted EPS of $0.40 to $0.42.  It is difficult to draw exact comparisons because of a unit shift, but we show First Call estimates at $0.38 EPS and $848.75 million in revenues.

Steve Bennett, Intuit’s president & CEO: “QuickBooks 2008 is off to a great start and Payroll and Payments growth continues to be strong. With the launch of TurboTax for the 2007 tax year coming next week, we’re looking forward to another great year for Intuit.” Of course the company can say a myriad of things on the conference call that might change this, but it sure looks like and sounds like Intuit is diversifying into a broader company with revenues and earnings that is becoming far less dependent only upon tax season each year.

Shares closed down 0.5% at $29.26, and shares are indicated up about 3% from teh closing price in after-hours trading.  The 52-week trading range is $26.14 to $34.94.

Jon C. Ogg
November 15, 2007

Jon Ogg produces the 24/7 Wall St. Special Situation Investing Newsletter; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Starbucks (SBUX) Gets Creamed

Starbucks (SBUX) was down over 2% much of the day, but rallied into the close. Analysts expected quarterly revenue to come in at $2.42 billion and EPS to run $.21.

As it turned out consolidated net revenues for the quarter were $2.4 billion, a 22 percent increase. But, same-store sales growth was only 4%.

Earnings per share was $0.21, compared to $0.15 per share in the quarter last year.

During the fiscal year ending October 1, Starbucks opened 2,571 new store; 70 percent in the U.S. and 30 percent in International markets.

Cost of sales including occupancy increased to 43.7 as a percent of total net revenues for the 13 weeks ended September 30, 2007, compared to 41.7 percent in the corresponding 13-week period of fiscal 2006. The increase was primarily due to a shift in sales to higher cost products and higher dairy costs.

Wall St. took the same store sales and gross margin news badly and pushed the shares down 4%.

Douglas A. McIntyre

TheStreet.com Takes On An Investor (TSCM)

TheStreet.com, Inc. (NASDAQ: TSCM) has announced that Technology Crossover Ventures has agreed to purchase a minority stake in TheStreet.com for some $55 million.  The investment is to support the Company’s accelerated expansion strategy. 

The breakdown of the investment is quite interesting, and it does not look like on the surface that this financing  is one where TheStreet.com is giving the keys to the palace away.  The investment of $55 million represents the purchase of preferred stock and warrants to purchase shares of common stock. The preferred stock converts into common stock at $14.26 per share. The five-year warrants permit TCV to purchase approximately 1.1 million shares of common stock at an exercise price of $15.686, or a premium of 10%. The preferred stock receives dividends at the same rate as the underlying company’s common shares, and has a one-time liquidation preference.  We’ll try to get a full breakdown of the exact terms.

We recently noted where TheStreet.com was out diversifying from only being known for stock and financial market commentary and research.  In the coming months, TheStreet.com will launch a new site, Mainstreet.com and it will also re-launch its free sites, TheStreet.com and Stockpickr.com, as it enhances its position as the premier destination for money.

"TCV" provides growth capital to late-stage private and public companies.  Jay Hoag, founding general partner of TCV, will join TheStreet.com’s board of directors.  It sure sounds like TheStreet.com’s acquisition path is not finished.

Shares closed down 4.2% in normal trading at $13.66 today, and the 52-week trading range is $8.20 to $14.25.

Jon C. Ogg
November 15, 2007

Jon Ogg produces the 24/7 Wall St. Special Situation Investing Newsletter; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) Take More Heat

Now that the FDA has forced GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) to put a "black label" on its diabetes drug Avandia, the competition is going for a coup de grace.

Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Ltd said on Thursday it was planning a major U.S. advertising campaign for diabetes drug Actos — one day after a new safety warning was issued on rival product Avandia, according to Reuters. The news service adds "the ads will run in 82 local newspapers and in several news weeklies, starting on Friday, under the headline "Actos has been shown to lower blood sugar without increasing your risk of having a heart attack or stroke.".

Never let it be said that the drug company executives are nice people.

Douglas A. McIntyre

More Bad News On SIVs

Bloomberg writes: "The net asset value of structured investment vehicles, companies that borrow short term to buy higher yielding securities, has fallen to 69.7 percent as the credit slump erodes their holdings, Fitch Ratings reported."

"SIVs have been forced to sell about $75 billion of investments since July as record U.S. home foreclosures caused investors to withdraw from asset-backed commercial paper."

Douglas A. McIntyre

If Banks Are Good For Warren Buffett, Are They Good For You? (WFC, USB, BAC, KMX, UNH, WLP, BNI, BRK-A)

Last night came the filing from Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE:BRK-A) showing its public company stock holdings as of September 30, 2007.  Berkshire’s four largest holdings in the report are American Express (NYSE:AXP), Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO), Procter & Gamble (NYSE:PG), and Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC).

CarMax Inc (NYSE:KMX), the largest used car seller in the U.S., was a new holding and listed as almost 14 million shares.  Frankly, this was surprising since auto sales (new and used) are not expected to turn yet.  Mr. Buffett must have been impressed with their streamlined approach to underpaying for inventory and overcharging for sales.  If you don’t believe they underpay or overcharge, go price shop their trade-in offer and their sales prices.  Nonetheless, shares of KMX are up 8% today.

Buffett added to stakes in three large U.S. banks with increased stakes in Wells Fargo & Co (NYSE:WFC), U.S. Bancorp (NYSE:USB) and Bank of America Corp (NYSE:BAC).  U.S. Bancorp was actually one we thought Warren Buffett might outright acquire US Bancorp as part of one of his "whale of an acquisitions" he’s never gotten around to.  Interestingly enough, the CEO of Wells Fargo was speaking at a Merrill Lynch banking conference today and said Wells Fargo’s exposure to CDO’s and asset-backed commercial paper is minimal.  He also noted that the nationwide housing market is now the worst since the Depression (he must have forgotten about Texas in the 1980’s) and is far from over.  Mr. Buffett probably wishes he would keep quiet since Wells Fargo shares are down 3% today.  Bank stocks are mostly lower today.

Read More »

Stocks Under $10: Ford (F)

For everything that has happened at Ford (F) over the last three months, Wall St. should expect some movement in the shares. But, they are flat. Barely a penny of movement.

The market is dealing with two counter-weights and it has not become clear which will drive the company over the next year.

Sales at Ford are awful, at least in the US. Unit volume has dropped each month for the last twelve months when compared to the same period a year ago. Sales in Asia and South America have been reasonable, and both regions posted strong operating income in the last quarter. Jaguar and Rover still drag on sales, but those units will probably be sold by early next year. But, Ford can’t afford much more of a slide in it home market.

On the other side of the coin is a highly successful cost cutting program. The new UAW contract takes health liabilities off of the P&L and allows the company to pay some classes of workers at fairly low hourly wage levels. The company has also cleaned out a large group of middle managers.

Ford trades at $8 now, which is pretty much the middle of its 52-week price range. US monthly sales reports for the next two or three months are going to push that share price hard, one way or the other.

Douglas A. McIntyre

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Largest Van der Moolen Specialist Stocks II (VDM, LAB, HUM, MBI, IP, MT, PFE, PHM, SAP, HOT, SYK, TXT, UA, WEN)

We have already noted the Van der Moolen (NYSE:VDM) exit of all NYSE Specialist activities and we’ve already covered some of the other key stocks where Van der Moolen acts as a Specialist in the underlying stocks.  What we wanted to look at is the underling stocks companies where Van der Moolen acts as a specialist to the companies.  The huge list can be found at http://www.vdm-usa.com/clients/alpha.asp off their web site.

Please be advised that these may have changed because we’ve already seen two merger stocks on the full list that are no longer traded.  This was taken from Van der Moolen’s site, so any errors there probably means they already laid off the I.T. editor for its web site.

Here are some of the key names for a second list: Humana Inc. (HUM), International Paper Co. (IP), MBIA Inc. (MBI), Mittal Steel Co. (MT), Pfizer Inc. (PFE), Pulte Homes Inc. (PHM), SAP A.G. (SAP), Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide Inc. (HOT), Stryker Corp. (SYK), Textron Inc. (TXT), Under Armour, Inc. (UA), Wendy’s International Inc. (WEN)….  Also listed is LaBranche & Co. Inc. (LAB), which is a bit ironic seeing as that this is another specialist firm. 

Jon C. Ogg
November 15, 2007

Jon Ogg produces the 24/7 Wall St. Special Situation Investing Newsletter; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Largest Van der Moolen Specialist Stocks (VDM, ANF, APA, CAG, DDS, DIS, HOG, HTZ, HPQ)

We have already noted the Van der Moolen (NYSE:VDM) exit of all NYSE Specialist activities.  What we wanted to look at is the underling stocks companies where Van der Moolen acts as a specialist to the companies.  The huge list can be found at http://www.vdm-usa.com/clients/alpha.asp

Please be advised that these may have changed because we’ve already seen two merger stocks on the full list that are no longer traded.  This was taken from Van der Moolen’s site, so any errors there probably means they already laid off the I.T. editor for its web site.

Here are some of the names: Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (ANF), Apache Corp. (APA), Coach Inc. (COH), Conagra Foods Inc. (CAG), Dillard’s Inc. (DDS), Disney (DIS), Harley-Davidson Inc. (HOG), Hertz Global Holdings, Inc. (HTZ), Hewlett-Packard Co. (HPQ)…. more to come in a part II story.

Jon C. Ogg
November 15, 2007

Jon Ogg produces the 24/7 Wall St. Special Situation Investing Newsletter; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Van der Moolen Bites The Dust As NYSE Specialist (VDM, NYX)

Van der Moolen (NYSE:VDM) posted another loss today, but we don’t even care about the results after looking at the real news.  Van der Moolen is terminating its operation as a U.S. specialist on the exchange trading floors.  To top it off, the Netherlands-based financial trading firm is going to delist its American depository shares from the New York Stock Exchange.

The company’s European operations are running profitably and the company said it would have been profitable outside of one-time items.

In the press release, it outlines its plans: "Losses in the US operation of Van der Moolen Specialists ("VDMS") continued this quarter. We therefore decided to terminate the Specialist activities of VDMS. We will focus our efforts on our other US activities; brokerage and trading on CBSX. On CBSX, we are active in over 1000 listed stocks of a total of approx. 3000 stocks. We intend to further develop this activity…… In the third quarter of 2007, we have acquired a 100% interest in Robbins & Henderson LLC, a US based institutional broker…. The acquisition of Robbins & Henderson forms a cornerstone in the start of a brokerage division in the US."

The company also sold 40,826 shares of NYSE Euronext (NYSE:NYX) in the quarter.  The company says it will work with the NYSE to secure a smooth transition process.  But you can imagine that any NYSE listed companies which have Van der Moolen as the specialist firm for their stocks are already on the phones securing new specialist agreements.

Jon C. Ogg
November 15, 2007

Jon Ogg produces the 24/7 Wall St. Special Situation Investing Newsletter; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

A Product Delay For AMD (AMD)?

Galleon Group, which 24/7 Wall St. pointed out bought shares in AMD (AMD), may already regret that move.

Bloomberg writes "Advanced Micro Devices Inc., the world’s second-largest maker of computer processors, is late delivering its newest chip geared for servers, helping Intel Corp. (INTC) extend its lead in the market, customers in Taiwan said."

The so-called "Barcelona" chips were to head to customers in September, but sources say that they have not shipped yet. The new product was to be the "next big thing" for AMD, the chip that would give it a performance leg up on Intel.

The news service adds "Advanced Micro’s market share tumbled to 13.9 percent for server processors in the third quarter, down from 24.6 percent a year earlier, according to research firm IDC."

AMD shares will open today at $12.28, near their 52-week low.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Local.com Plays Into Expectations (LOCM)

Local.com Corp. (NASDAQ:LOCM) is seeing shares surge in pre-market trading activity.  24/7 Wall St. just noted the chances in this week’s "10 Stocks Under $10" newsletter that the company was likely to turn on its press release machine soon based upon the recent share price drop.  Guess what…

Local.com announced that it has signed five license agreements for its local search patent, which covers methods for indexing and retrieving internet related information by geographical location.  The patent licenses have been integrated into revised contracts for the LocalConnect platform, which was recently expanded under the acquisition of PremierGuide.  Former PremierGuide clients Community Newspaper Holdings, GateHouse Media, Herald Association, Intellistrand, and The Telegraph cover over 200 sites owned and operated by these properties that have now completed revised contracts with Local.com.

Financial terms were not disclosed, but a 15% pop to $4.33 in pre-market trading pretty much says it all.  Local.com was also a member of our "Small Cap Internet Watch List" of stocks that under the right circumstances could become acquisition targets of larger web, media, and IT companies.

Jon C. Ogg
November 15, 2007

Jon Ogg produces the 24/7 Wall St. Special Situation Investing Newsletter; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Garmin Settles With TomTom (GRMN)

Garmin Ltd. (NASDAQ:GRMN) is trading up in pre-market trading today.  The GPS consumer device maker has announced that it has entered into a confidential global settlement of all of its intellectual property litigation with TomTom.

The settlement appears to be broad-based as it resolves all pending intellectual property litigation including cases in the U.K. and Netherlands, as well as cases filed in Wisconsin and Texas.

Details of the agreements are not being disclosed, but it is obvious that this is being viewed as a win.  Companies who have failed to settle their patent litigation and have had rulings go the other way have seen shares hit hard, and it appears that Garmin took notice of its falling share price and decided this was a better way out.  It isn’t Garmin, but we have a GPS-related stock coming out this week in our Special Situation Investing Newsletter that is still independent, but we feel will be acquired sooner rather than later.

Garmin shares are up 2.5% in pre-market trading  at $87.75.  Its 52-week highs were $125.68.  Losing one-third of your share price usually tips managements hand.

Jon C. Ogg
November 15, 2007

Will Enterprise Users Junk Microsoft (MSFT) Vista?

It appears that a number of enterprise users of Microsoft (MSFT) Windows may complete skip Vista and wait for the next OS release in two years.

InfoWorld writes "with Microsoft planning to release the next version of Windows, code-named Windows 7, in late 2009 or 2010, there remains a strong possibility that companies might skip over Vista altogether in favor of the next release of Windows."

Now, that would hurt earnings over the next six to eight quarters and move MSFT stock back down from its recent run.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Top 10 Pre-Market Analyst Calls (AMGN, ENP, NTAP, PT, QCOM, SWIR, VCLK, VRSN, WY)

These aren’t all of the impact analyst calls, but these are the key calls that 24/7 Wall St. is focusing on:

  • Amgen (AMGN) raised to overweight at Lehman.
  • Encore Energy (ENP) started as Overweight at Lehman.
  • Network Appliances (NTAP) raised to Peer Perform at Bear Stearns; estimates raised at Goldman Sachs.
  • Portugal Telecom (PT) raised to Peer Perform at Bear Stearns, but cut to Hold at Citigroup.
  • Qualcomm (QCOM) earnings estimates cut at Goldman Sachs.
  • Sierra Wireless (SWIR) cut to Market Perform at Piper Jaffray.
  • ValueClick (VCLK) raised to Buy from Hold at Citigroup.
  • VeriSign (VRSN) cut to Hold from Buy at WR Hambrecht.
  • Weyehaueser (WY) raised to Buy at Lehman.

Jon C. Ogg
November 15, 2007

Kraft (KFT) To Merge Post Cereals Into Ralcorp (RAH)

Kraft (KFT) will merger its Post cereals division into Ralcorp (RAH). The transaction is tax-efficient and worth approximately $2.6 billion to Kraft and its shareholders. For purposes of comparison, to have achieved an equivalent amount in a taxable transaction, Kraft would have needed to receive approximately $4.0 billion in cash for the business.

The Post cereals business had net revenues of about $1.1 billion in 2006 and includes such popular cereals as Honey Bunches of Oats, Pebbles, Shredded Wheat, Selects, Grape Nuts and Honeycomb. The brands in this transaction are distributed primarily in North America.

Douglas A. McIntyre