Things may seem tight right now, but Moody’s does not think that the US economy will go into recession.

CNN Money writes that the agency’s view is that "the dollar is expected to contribute positively to economic growth in 2008 as its declining value increases the value of U.S. assets abroad."

That thread seems a bit thin. Based on recent housing and retail data, the consumer is already in deep trouble. News from Capital One (COF) and American Express (AXP) would indicate that default rates on credit cards are beginning to move up sharply.

No recession. Wishful thinking.

Douglas A. McIntyre