Monthly Archives: January 2008

Motorola (MOT) Looks For The Exit Door

Motorola’s (NYSE: MOT) shares were halted. Then the company announced what many on Wall St. had expected. Its board will look at whether not the company should exit the cell phone business. The firm’s share of global handset sales has dropped from about 22% to 12% in two years. Rivals Nokia (NYSE: NOK), Samsung, and Sony Ericsson have systematically stripped MOT of its customers.

Samsung and Sony Ericsson would be likely buyers.

Earlier in the month, 24/7 Wall St. noted that Motorola might not make it through the year intact. Now it looks like that prediction may come true soon.

In its announcement, the company said it is exploring the structural and strategic realignment of its businesses to better equip its Mobile Devices business to recapture global market leadership and to enhance shareholder value. The company’s alternatives may include the separation of Mobile Devices from its other businesses in order to permit each business to grow and better serve its customers.

In other words, the board and management admitted defeat.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Some of the other companies we have noted, with full explanations in the link, are Sears Holdings (NASDAQ: SHLD), Citigroup, (NYSE: C), Yahoo! (NASDAQ: YHOO), Advanced Micro Devices (NYSE: AMD), Ford (NYSE: F), Sprint Nextel (NYSE: S), and Qwest Communications (NYSE: Q).

Google Follows Internet Post-Earnings Sell-Off (GOOG)

Goole Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) has posted its earnings and the results came in at $4.43 non-GAAP EPS on revenues of $3.39 Billion on an ex-TAC basis, and these are not going to greatly received since Wall Street demand more from Google.  First Call had estimates at $4.45 EPS on ex-TAC revenues of $3.45 Billion. 

Google doesn’t offer guidance, but Wall Street is expecting roughly a 30% EPS gain in 2008 to $20.78 EPS and roughly a 40% revenue gain to $16.59 Billion.Its revenues before backing out traffic acquisition costs was $4.83 Billion.  Here were some key metrics:

  • Google-owned sites generated revenues of $3.12 billion, or 65% of total revenues, in the fourth quarter of 2007.
  • Google’s partner sites generated revenues, through AdSense programs, of $1.64 billion, or 34% of total revenues.
  • Revenues from outside of the United States totaled $2.32 billion, representing 48% of total revenues in the fourth quarter of 2007.
  • Google’s PAID CLICKS rose 30% year over year and rose 9% sequentially.
  • As of December 31, 2007, cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities were $14.2 billion.
  • Google employed 16,805 full-time global employees as of December 31, 2007, up from 15,916 full-time employees as of September 30, 2007.  That represents a 5.5% headcount growth.

Google had 3.88 million shares listed in the short interest as of last look in Mid-January, down from 4.07 million at the end of December.  Google shares closed up almost 2% at $560.00 on more than 10 million shares, although this fell $10 at the end of the day from a $570.19 high as traders may have gotten cold feet. In after-hours trading, Google shares are getting whacked by 8% down to $516+ on active volume (for a $500+ stock).

Jon C. Ogg
January 31, 2008 

The 52-Week Low Club (CDNS)(ARAY)(RNOW)(CRUS)(HSTX)

Cadence Design Systems (CDNS) posts bad numbers and gets downgrades. Falls to $9.90 from 52-week high of $24.90.

Accuray (ARAY) The radiosurgery device maker reported disappointing fiscal second-quarter results. Trades off to $9.26 from 52-week high of $31.90.

Rightnow Technologies (RNOW) Poor financial outlook. Drops to $9.70 from 52-week high $23.38.

Cirrus Logic (CRUS) Market unhappy with profits. Falls to $4 from 52-week high of $9.44.

Harris Stratex Networks (HSTX) Weak results hit stock. Falls to $10.11 from 52-week high of $21.25.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Garmin nuvifone ‘May’ Threaten Apple iPhone (GRMN, AAPL)

Garmin Ltd. (NASDAQ: GRMN) has unveiled a new device today and this looks like many consumers will interpret it as a shot right across the bow of Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL).  These are actually different markets on the surface, but analysts andconsumers may draw more lines into converging markets after the firstor second generation of the phones.  You could make an anology that Apple was converging mobile computing and communications and iTunes into the iPhone, and Garmin is converging mobile computing and communications with GPS & PND. 

Garmin is launching the nuvifone(TM) to combine a phone with a personal navigation device.  This has many of the same features as the Apple iPhone with some differences and some relative pros and cons.  The con is fairly easy to see and that is that it doesn’t look quite as cool on the surface, and this is not really looking like the next iTunes replacement hub.  But the pros may greatly outweigh this.  For starters, this is going to have much the same look as the personal navigation devices from Garmin today, plus it will have a mobile web browser in an all touchscreen platform on a 3.5-inch screen (same size as iPhone). 

You can see the entire media pictures here outside of this one picture here with the web browser open to get a snapshot of what you are really looking at, and when you click on the images on the Garmin nuvifone site you will see their images are much more clear.
Garmin_web
When the nuvifone is docked onto the vehicle mount, it automatically turns on the GPS, activates the navigation menu, and enables hands-free calling so that the user never misses a beat in the conversation and is able to begin routing to their destination with ease.  This also comes preloaded with maps of North America, or Europe (or both), and you can still have that talking voice prompted direction guide.

This will also harness Google local search capability with 3.5G and will combine a personal messaging function for email, text, and instant messaging. 

For those who can’t find their own (you know what), it even has a "Where am I?" feature to display the exact latitude and longitude coordinates, the nearest address and intersection, and the closest hospitals, police stations and gas stations.  And if the enemy is over-running your defense lines you can call in the broken arrow air strike right on top of your position.

Besides navigation, the nuvifone includes access to Garmin Online(TM) for constant updated information in real-time traffic, fuel prices, stock prices, sport scores, news reports, local events and weather forecasts.

Read More »

Many Homebuilders Up 100% From Lows (MTH, PHM, LEN, WCI, SPF, HOV, XHB)

Everyone knew homebuilders would turn one day and when they turned it would be fast and in a flurry of buying volume.  Much of this may attributed to short covering, but much is because the good old Fed and another 125 basis points in rate cuts within a 10-day period.  You know you can’t pay attention to the headlines on home sales or even the earnings out of these, because that is dismal.  But traders are taking aim here.  In fact some of these are up 100% off of lows already.

  • Meritage Homes (NYSE: MTH) up 12% at $15.26, up over 100% from lows; 52-week range $7.04 to $46.65.
  • Pulte Homes (NYSE: PHM) up 14% at $15.52, up over 80% from lows; 52-week range $8.20 to $35.56.
  • Lennar (NYSE: LEN) up 8% at $19.70, up over 60% from lows; 52-week range $11.98 to $56.54.
  • WCI Communities (NYSE: WCI) up 14.5% at $5.98, up over 200% from lows; 52-week range $1.35 to $24.20.
  • Standard Pacific Corp. (NYSE: SPF) up 22% at $3.78, up over 100% from lows; 52-week range $1.47 to $30.52
  • Hovnanian Enterprises Inc. (NYSE: HOV) up 10% at $9.68, up over 100% from lows; 52-week range $4.25 to $37.58.

We even ran the key ETF for the sector.  The SPDR S&P Homebuilders (AMEX: XHB) is up over 8% today to $22.10.  But even this is up almost 50% from the recent lows; 52-week trading range $15.22 to $40.03.  That low was just on January 9, 2008.

There are many other names that were equally charged.  But these were the ones that fir the screen today.

Jon C. Ogg
January 31, 2008 

Sprint (S) To Write-Off Most Of NexTel Value

As it to confirm what a disaster its acquisition of NexTel has been, Sprint (S) will write-off as much as $31 billion in goodwill related to the deal.

According to Reuters Sprint "might have to write off all of the $30.7 billion goodwill value from its purchase of Nextel Communications and smaller deals as it struggles with customer losses."

At this point, with its stock down from a 52-week high of $23.42 to $10,50, the entire market cap of the company is only $30 billion.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Brinks: The Sweet Spot In A Rough Patch (BCO)

Shares of Brinks Co. (NYSE: BCO) are up significantly after today earnings report.  We have been behind Brinks for several months now, and it is still an active stock on our Special Situation subscriber letter.  This has approached our own $70 price target before the market malaise took it lower.  It actually never even did hit our downside panic levels, but we have a hedged scenario anyhow.

This morning Brinks managed to beat earnings quite handily.  Brinks posted earnings at $1.16 EPS, well above the $0.74 estimate from First Call; revenues were up more than 18% to $882.8 million, yet First Call only had estimates at $819.5 million.

Furthermore the company put 2008 goals for organic growth of high-single digits for revenues with operating profit margins at or above 8%.  Not only that, but Brinks is looking further out to 2010 with a goal of sustaining that rate of revenue growth and boosting its operating margins to 10%.

Our Special Situation thrust here was only partially based upon improving results, although we did expect a turn there again.  We have been tracking increased activist investor activity and after we reviewed the books, the business stance, its minor units that could be parceled out, and other factors, we determined that this stock could reach roughly $70.00.  Our entry area was in the mid-$50’s in September 2007, and we didn’t want to note the profits by taking them too soon in the mid-$60’s by early November.

As always, we laid out an options trade that allowed for hedging the transaction to minimize risk.  This is crucial for many turnarounds and for many businesses that have special situations they are working through.  In short, it’s important to have protection when management may intentionally or inadvertently take actions that result in negative shareholder value.

Jon C. Ogg
January 31, 2008

Hedge Fund Holder Says Countrywide Selling Too Cheap (CFC, BAC)

A hedge fund is claiming that Countrywide Financial (NYSE: CFC) is selling itself too cheaply to Bank of America (NYSE: BAC).  SRM GLOBAL FUND GENERAL PARTNER LIMITED has filed a Schedule 13D.  SRM now owns and has a shared voting power of just over 30 million shares, or 5.19% of the common stock.  We would at least note that the "as of date" is January 24, 2008, even though the filing posted on Edgar at 8:33 this morning.

Here are excerpts from the comments from SRM: "…the Reporting Persons are of the view that the Merger Agreement does not provide sufficient value to holders of the Issuer’s Common Stock. The Reporting Persons may initiate discussions with the Issuer and may communicate with the Issuer’s executive management and board of directors, with other holders of the Issuer’s Common Stock, and with B of A from time to time regarding the proposed terms of the Merger Agreement. Depending on various factors…. the Reporting Persons may in the future take such actions with respect to their investment in the Issuer……."

In short, SRM is saying that Countrywide is selling itself too cheaply, and SRM is trying to demand a higher price or will try to influence a vote against the approval of this merger.  SRM probably has a long road in front of them here on this effort as Countrywide was going to be an "at risk" company without this buyout. 

Jon C. Ogg
January 31, 2008

Under Armour: GARP or Value Trap? (UA)

Under Armour, Inc. (NYSE: UA) posted its earnings this morning, and some might be breathing a sigh of relief that the stock is only down marginally.  The sporting apparel maker posted Q4-2007 EPS of $0.34 per share on a 29% rise in revenues to $174.8 million.  First Call had estimates pegged at $0.32 EPS on revenues of $173.5 million.

We had already been warned that the company was going to see a ramping up of its ad spending for the first half, and Wall Street understood that this meant a lower bottom line.  Under Armour’s guidance for fiscal 2008 is light as it sees revenues of $765 to $775 million.  First Call has estimates at $787.87.  The company is maintaining the stance that its diluted earnings per share will be in a range of $0.03 to $0.05 for the first half of 2008.

Shares had actually indicated slightly higher in pre-market trading, but now shares are down almost 3% at $36.50.  Its 52-week trading range is $25.39 to $73.40, although this only spent two or three days over the last two weeks down under $30.00.

What is interesting is how this has fallen so far from grace after a monumental 2006 rise.  If the company would just meet prior 2008 targets, it would now have a forward P/E ratio of just under 30.  The problem is that it isn’t growing as fast as before and it is no secret that all high growth companies either reach the end of the exponential growth or at least mature. 

If you are a growth investor, the GARP (growth at reasonable price) is there.  But the best growth is behind it and all the momentum is a mere memory.  Based on its multiples, its recent performance, its current earnings performance, and more, this also looks more like a value trap than it does a value stock.  The good news on the flip-side of the coin is that it at least looks like most of the worst has been seen.  We’d also note that if the company loses too much value it would make an attractive brand target for another apparel conglomerate that wants another solid core brand under its roof.

Jon C. Ogg
January 31, 2008

The New York Times (NYT) Misses Every Number

In the fourth quarter, The New York Times (NYT) missed Wall St. estimates for EPS and revenue. EPS came in at $.44 compared to $.48. Revenue was $867 compared to estimates at $882.

The additional week in 2006 had a significant effect on the comparisons of Internet revenues. In the fourth quarter, our Internet revenues grew 12.0 percent to $95.2 million from $85.0 million in the fourth quarter of 2006. For the full-year 2007, Internet revenues rose 20.2 percent to $330.2 million from $274.7 million in 2006. We estimate that the additional week contributed $4.0 million in the fourth quarter and full year of 2006. Excluding the additional week, Internet revenues grew 17.6 percent in the fourth quarter and 22.0 percent for the full year.

In December, things got worse. For the last month of the year total revenues from continuing operations decreased 22.4% compared with December 2006, when our fiscal calendar included an additional week; excluding the estimated impact of the additional week in 2006, they decreased 8.2%. Advertising revenues decreased 25.2%; excluding the additional week, they decreased 12.0%. Circulation revenues decreased 17.8%; excluding the additional week, they increased 0.6%.

The stock is off almost 4% in the pre-market.

Douglas A. McIntyre

ETF LAUNCH: China Small Cap From Claymore/AlphaShares (HAO)

The American Stock Exchange launched trading yesterday in a new exchange traded fund that tracks small cap stocks in China.  It launched the Claymore/AlphaShares China Small Cap Index ETF (Amex: HAO) by Claymore Securities, Inc.

This ETF (HAO) aims to track the performance of the AlphaShares China Small Cap Index, which was designed to track the performance of publicly-traded small cap stocks in mainland China.

According to the launch site, this ETF launched with only 200,000 shares outstanding and it traded 2,800 shares yesterday.  It was also listed as having a 5.32% Bid/Ask premium and has 120 securities in the AlphaShares China Small Cap Index (ACNSC).

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Ford (F): More Incentives, Bad News

One of the things Ford (F) CEO Alan Mulally wanted to do at the car company was cut the use of incentives. They can cost auto firms as much as $5,000 per vehicle. Average incentive per car runs about $2,400 for US car-makers.

Things have not worked out as Ford’s US sales keep falling and the domestic car market gets tough due to a bad economy and rising full prices.

According to The Detroit News "Ford will sharply increase incentive spending this year to counter aggressive pricing by competitors and ensure that demand for older vehicles like the Ford F-150 and Mercury Milan remains strong."

Mulally’s idea was nice while it lasted.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Analysts Defend Alliance Data Systems After Earnings (ADS)

Alliance Data Systems Corp. (NYSE: ADS) is seeing shares surge in pre-market trading this morning.  Alliance is suing Blackstone Group (NYSE: BX) over the likely merger failure.  Alliance also posted its earnings yesterday after the close.

The company posted a 14% drop in earnings after losses from a business unit sale and from its failed buyout.  It made $0.42 EPS, down from $0.48 EPS the year before on a net basis, but it posted $0.93 cash earnings versus a $0.93 estimates.  Revenues were up about 15% to $602.7 million, while estimates were looking for almost $601 million.

Alliance also maintained its stance that it could clearly generate double-digit organic growth in both operating and adjusted EBITDA.  The company noted a "combined impact of double-digit organic growth, reductions in capital expenditures and the implementation of additional free cash flow initiatives" will all result in a significant increase in cash flow during 2008. 

Analysts are defending the stock this morning.  There are upgrades from both Bear Stearns and JMP Securities raising ratings to "Outperform" and SunTrust Robinson Humphrey is raising its rating to a Buy from Neutral.  Shares closed at $42.70 yesterday and shares are up over 8% pre-market at $46.40 in early trading.  This was cut in half after the failed Blackstone buyout and the 52-week trading range is $39.54 to $80.79.

Jon C. Ogg
January 31, 2008

Goldman Sachs Conviction Buy List Changes In Gold Sector (ABX, FCX)

Goldman Sachs is making a key change in the gold sector this morning.  The investment banking giant is adding Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold (NYSE: FCX) to the Americas Conviction Buy List.  This stock is replacing Barrick Gold (NYSE: ABX) on the Americas Conviction Buy List.

FCX is noted as being down over 15% year to date and being inexpensive based on a 49% upside from current prices to Goldman’s 12-month $129.00 price target.  Its leverage in copper is perhaps one of the more favorable issues according to the note, and Goldman notes that it believes copper consumption will be least affected of the base metals in a Western economic slowdown.

Barrick’s removal from the Americas Conviction Buy List comes on the heels of strong performance, which is actually up 29% since being added to the list on November 27, 2007.  Barrick is also up some 90% since April 2006 when it was first given a Buy rating.  Goldman Sachs is still maintaining its official Buy rating on Barrick along with a $66 price target.  The firm believes this was the beneficiary of higher gold prices over $900/ounce as the stock outperformed mining and metals peers.  It also believes this is a top gold investment vehicle.

This call looks more like a relative value call based upon performance and value, and it could even be an implied pairs trade in the sector to some.

Jon C. Ogg
January 31, 2008

Top 10 Pre-Market Analyst Calls (ADBE, ADS, JRJC, GILD, HES, JWN, MNST, NEU, RL, YUM)

These are not all of the pre-market research calls during a busy earnings morning, but these are the top calls that 247WallSt.com is looking at:

  • Adobe Systems (NASDAQ: ADBE) downgraded to Underperform from Buy at Jefferies.
  • Alliance Data Systems (NYSE: ADS) upgraded to Outperform at Bear Stearns and upgraded to Outperform at JMP Securities.
  • China Finance Online (NASDAQ: JRJC) started as Buy at Jefferies.
  • Gilead Sciences (NASDAQ: GILD) raised to Outperform at Wachovia.
  • Hess (HES) raised to Overweight at JPMorgan.
  • J.W. Nordstrom (NYSE: JWN) raised to Outperform at Bear Stearns.
  • Monster Worldwide (NASDAQ: MNST) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank.
  • NeuMarket (NYSE: NEU) started as Outperform at Oppenheimer.
  • Polo Ralph Lauren (NYSE: RL) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Banc of America.
  • YUM! Brands (NYSE: YUM) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank.

Jon C. Ogg
January 31, 2008

Amazon.com Sees Greatness In Audible (AMZN, ADBL)

Audible Inc. (NASDAQ: ADBL) is finally being acquired.  Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN) will pay some $11.50 per share of Audible in an all-cash buyout.  Including Audible’s cash on hand, this transaction is valued at roughly $300 million. 

If any company needed to be acquired in the digital media for books, magazines, newspapers, radio, TV, and other content distribution, it was Audible.  The company has its Audible.com service in the U.S. that has been around since the late-1990’s for subscriptions, and the service also offers sites specifically for the U.K., France, and Germany.

When you consider that Amazon.com is taking on Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) over iTunes and is launching its Kindle eBook reader, we wouldn’t expect this to be the only small media company that Amazon.com (or others) look at, although not all the buyouts in the sector will be of public companies.

Jon C. Ogg
January 31, 2008

P&G (PG) To Spin-Off Coffee Operations

P&G (PG) announced plans to separate its coffee business and create an independent company named The Folgers Coffee Company. The coffee business had sales of approximately $1.6 billion and operating income of about $350 million in fiscal 2007.

The company also said revenue for the last quarter increased nine percent to $21.6 billion behind five percent volume growth and a five point favorable foreign exchange impact. Diluted net earnings per share increased 17 percent to $0.98. Net earnings increased 14 percent to $3.3 billion behind higher sales growth, increased operating profit and a lower tax rate.

For the current period P&G expects earnings per share to be in the range of $3.46 to $3.50, up 14 to 15 percent versus the prior year. This is an improvement versus the company’s prior guidance range of $3.46 to $3.49 due to the strong results in the October-December quarter.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Asia Markets 1/31/2008 (SNE)(TM)(LFC)(PTR)

Markets in Asia were mixed at 3.10 AM New York time.

The Nikkei was up 1.9% to 23.329. Sony (SNE) was up 3.6% to 5,220. Toyota (TM) was up 5.4% to 5,820.

The Hang Seng was trading off 1.2% to 23,375. China Life (LFC) was down 4.5% to 27.7. PetroChina (PTR) was off 1.9% to 10.6.

The Shanghai Composite fell .8% to 4,383.

Data from Reuters

Douglas A. McIntyre

Eli Lilly (LLY): The Drug Companies Never Learn

At least once a year, and probably more often, a big drug company makes a settlement or faces suits over not disclosing the bad effects of one or more of its products.

Lilly’s anti-psychotic drug Zyprexa can cause severe weight gain which can lead to diabetes. Investigators clearly think that someone at Lilly knew this. As The Wall Street Journal points out "the prospect of an indictment is daunting for a drug maker in light of the government’s huge role in health care, since a criminal finding could compromise a company’s access to government business."

Lilly may pay as much as $1 billion to settle with the feds and state governments. Then all of its Zyprexa problems will go away like bad dreams.

The settlement hardly gets to the heart of the matter which is that drug companies appear to be routinely prepared to be overly aggressive in marketing their products. Lawsuits are part of the cost of doing business. Lilly made over $1 billion last quarter. The charge for settling this matter will probably be spread over more than one year.

The drug company culture is deeply flawed and undermined by an acceptance of deception. Prosecutors and the FDA know that. But, they seem not to be willing to do much about it.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Starbucks (SBUX) Will Have To Close A Lot More Than 100 Stores

No one on Wall St. liked the Starbucks (SBUX) quarterly results and the shares moved down after they were announced. They still sit close to a 52-week low. The company reported revenues of $2.8 billion, a 17 percent increase from fiscal Q1 of 2007. Earnings per share were $0.28, compared to $0.26 per share in the period a year ago. Comparable store sales growth of one percent worldwide.

The company’s solution to these problems seems to have three pieces. First, Starbucks will sell a $1 cup of coffee. It may bring in foot traffic, but probably won’t be profitable. Second, the company will eliminate selling sandwiches.

Finally, Starbucks will close 100 stories in the US. That is out of a total of 11,168 in the US at of the end of 2007, which is up from 9,401 at the end of 2006. In the US, same-store sales fell 1% in the last quarter.

Howard Schultz is back as Starbucks CEO and there is already something wrong with his math. Shareholders are bleeding and the company is planning to close 100 under-performing stores out of a universe of over 11,000.

If Starbucks is going to get back in the good graces of investors, it is going to have to look at a program significantly more radical than the one it proposes. It is plain to almost everyone except the company that with shrinking same-store sales a .1% reduction in locations is not even close to adequate.

But, Schultz has already fired his CEO, and he is unlikely to do the same thing to himself.

Douglas A. McIntyre