Daily Archives: March 11, 2008

Cutting Maintenance Doesn’t Help Southwest Shareholders (LUV)

Southwest Air (NYSE: LUV) responded today to preliminary findings of its internal investigation over safety allegations.  It looks like the allegations over safety and inspection incidents had some meat to them.  The airline is taking action and vowed to make any changes to assure full compliance with FAA Airworthiness Directives, as well as all of its own maintenance policies and procedures.

It had accelerated the internal investigation last week after Southwest received details from the FAA’s letter of civil penalty. The company has now noted concerns with some of its own findings over controls over procedures within maintenance airworthiness directives and regulatory compliance processes.  The immediate steps were as follows:

  • Placed 3 employees on administrative leave and noted that those employees are cooperating with the investigation;
  • Hired an outside consultant to help review its maintenance program controls, especially Airworthiness Directive compliance;
  • Fully engaged with the FAA on its current audit of Southwest and committed to FAA leadership that it will investigate and address any deficiencies in its maintenance controls.

This mess is really hard to fathom, and it would be much harder to fathom this being a system-wide policy of cutting corners.  Even after that unfortunate event in Chicago, Southwest has the safest record of any major airline and that of any of the major discounters.  We have noted in the past how the airlines "isn’t so much of a discount" any longer and we have noted how its fuel hedges were helping less and less compared to the past.  But it should also be noted that the airline has a cult-like core flier base that has brand loyalty that goes above and beyond most airlines.

This is one of those issues that just feels like more negative headlines will come out over controls and procedures are described horribly in a USA Today piece.  If employees are being suspended and this is ongoing, it probably isn’t over yet on the headline front and any long-term investors should probably expect more "findings" to hit the tape.  It will have to eat some financial charges that may even go beyond the already-reported amounts and it may have some higher expenses coming as a result of whatever new procedures it puts in place. 

The airline can recover.  As long as the airline gets this back in order and has no incidents this will ultimately pass and the company shouldn’t be too tarnished longer-term.  Unfortunately, its stock isn’t doing well and it is at the very bottom of a multi-year trading range.  Cheating rarely pays off in the long-run.  At least Eliot Spitzer isn’t able to get involved.

Jon C. Ogg
March 11, 2008

Cramer Hunts For Safe Harbor in a Storm: DuPont (DD)

Cramer went out tonight on CNBC’s MAD MONEY still looking for safe harbors in a storm, despite the strong market today and despite his noting that this trading rally could last 5 days. 

His pick tonight was DuPont (NYSE: DD) that he thinks should say good things at its conference Friday, and may even raise numbers.  With it having a large agriculture play, he thinks that is good.  Cramer noted how this is a reinvention of a company as its seed business is so strong.  He even noted that the company could announce it is spinning off the agriculture business.  He did note that he would only buy half of his position after today’s run and hope for lower prices Thursday.

Last night his safe harbor for the storm pick was Genentech (NYSE: DNA).

Jon C. Ogg
March 11, 2008

Cramer Goes Wrestling (WWE)

On tonight’s MAD MONEY on CNBC, Jim Cramer hosted World Wrestling Entertainment Inc. (NYSE: WWE) CEO Linda McMahon.  This is one that Cramer touted before, and it doesn’t look like much has changed there.

Linda McMahon noted that the company has not over-penetrated markets as not all events are sold out, and also noted the media properties it has.  She also noted that Pay-per-view was a growth mechanism.  As far as dividend are concerned, Cramer noted the high yield and increased dividends.  The common holders get a $0.36 dividend quarterly, while the McMahon family dividend stayed at $0.24.

We looked, and that yield is 8%.  In fact, its at the top of the 52-week trading range of $13.35 to $18.60.  Shares closed up almost 4% today at $18.16, and shares were at $18.50 on last look in after-hours trading.

Jon C. Ogg
March 11, 2008

Caterpillar, No Dog (CAT)

Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE: CAT) has come out and maintained its 2008 EPS growth estimate of 5% to 15% and sales growth estimates of 5% to 10%.  After going back over the notes, this in-line with First Call targets of 10% EPS growth and 6% revenue growth.

As far as cap-ex goes, the  construction equipment giant will spend $2.3 Billion in 2008.  On a longer-term basis, it expects revenues to approach $60 billion by 2010.

This DJIA-component stock closed up over 5% at $72.61 today, and shares are up about $1.50 in after-hours trading.  The 52-week trading range is $59.60 to $87.00.

Caterpillar is learning to love strong emerging growth markets combined with a weak dollar.

Jon C. Ogg
March 11, 2008

DivX Looks Like Golfing Divot (DIVX)

Hitting a 52-week low on news is one thing, but blowing through it is another.  When you consider it coming from a hot IPO touted by Cramer at one point then it’s even worse.  Enter DivX, Inc. (NASDAQ: DIVX).

DivX is being punished in after-hours trading.  The media player company posted a 47% revenue gain to $24.5 million, while earnings were $0.11 GAAP EPS and $0.16 non-GAAP.  First Call had estimates pegged at $0.15 non-GAAP EPS on $22.54 million in revenues.  These would have been fine, except for their guidance below.

Is expects revenue for technology licensing of about 75% for the first quarter and 75% to 85% for the balance of 2008; expected revenue for media and other distribution and services of about 25% for Q1 and 15% to 25% for the balance of 2008.  Here was its formal growth forecast, and here lies the problem:

  • It is also forecasting $24.5 to $25.5 million in Q1 revenues and $95 to $100 million for 2008, and it sees its core non-GAAP EPS for Q1 at $0.13 to $0.15 EPS and sees 2008 at $0.44 to $0.52 EPS.  First Call has Q1 estimates at $0.19 non-GAAP EPS on $26.29 million revenues, and estimates for 2008 are $0.67 non-GAAP EPS and $104.24 million in revenues.

That old break-up looks farther and farther away.

If you read through the quotes, it is all positive in the start.  DivX noted that the 2008 focus will be its highly profitable core licensing business and other key growth strategies balanced with managing investments for growth and delivering shareholder value.  Unfortunately, it also notes that it has less visibility for the second half of 2008 and it is taking a "measured approach."  It sees non-GAAP projected EBITDA up 25% to 30% for full fiscal 2008.

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The 52-Week Low Club (HUM)(WLP)(CI)(S)

Humana (HUM) Health insurers pulled down by bad news at WellPoint. Falls to $42.85 from 52-week high of $88.10.

Wellpoint (WLP) Profit warning. Drops to $46.66 from 52-week high of $90.

CIGNA Corporation (CI) Insurance whirlpool is a catch-all. Down to $36.75 from 52-week high of $57.61.

Sprint Nextel (S) Further concerns about earnings and subscriber defections. No M&A deal appears to be in the offing. Sells down to $5.55 from 52-week high of $23.42.

Suntech Power (STP) Company to offer $425 million in new notes. Shares tumble to $28.91 from 52-week high of $90.

Jones Soda (JSDA) Fourth quarter loss. Drops to $2.65 from 52-week high of $32.60.

Altair Nanotechnologies (ALTI) Still falling days after CEO leaves and stock gets downgraded.

Douglas A. McIntyre

CEO Immelt Buys $2M More in General Electric Stock (GE)

Jeff Immelt, CEO of General Electric Co. (NYSE: GE), has gone active again in buying up shares of company stock.  In an SEC Filing, it shows that Jeff Immelt bought roughly 62,000 shares of GE stock at prices averaging $32.74 to $33.00 in transactions dated today, March 11, and these appear to be purchases on the open market.

This now takes Immelt’s direct ownership of shares up to 1,425,811.  He also holds 21,459 indirect shares listed in his 401K plan.  His purchases today came to about $2 million worth of shareholder buys.  Shares are currently at $33.25 in late afternoon trading.  His value now at today’s prices would be roughly $47.4 million.

He just came out noting that NBC is going to remain part of the conglomerate.

Whether you agree with CEO’s decisions or not, when they plunk down $2 million here and there to buy their stock it starts to look like they have strong convictions. 

Jon C. Ogg
March 11, 2008

24/7 Wall St. Conversation With Verizon (VZ) CEO Ivan Seidenberg

24/7 Wall St. interviewed Verizon (NYSE: VZ) CEO Ivan Seidenberg about the wireless and broadband industries.

When asked about the concern among investors that wireless saturation rates and new cellular price plans are a sign of a price war which might hurt profits for Verizon and its peers, Mr. Seidenberg said that there is a legitimate concern that cellular penetration is at 85%. He said that this means the market is not going to grow at 15% each year. The addressable market for cellular subscribers can’t keep moving up at anywhere near those rates.Verizon has been winning new customers by taking wireless share from competitors consistently and he expects that to continue even in a fairly highly pentrated market. Also, in terms of wireless data use, that is only 20% of the market now and 75% of customers have data-enabled phones  The data market is not saturated at all. That is the future of revenue growth in wireless.

Seidenberg said in terms of the new cellular pricing program, Verizon’s average wireless customer pays $51 a month. The company has more people moving up from the $79.95 price level to the new $99.95 plan than it does people dropping from very high-priced plans. As customers come to Verizon for air cards and other wireless devices, they have let the firm know that they want better pricing for their cellular service. Verizon is getting growth from this new pricing program and expects to benefit from low data use penetration as more customers subscribe to these services. The revenue from these will be accretive which should be evident in future quarters.

The landline broadband business also has high penetration, so some of the same concerns apply here. Seidenberg made it clear that on the broadband landline side, DSL does have high penetration, but with the company’s FiOS service, Verizon is competing with cable and satellite. Investors are worried about a price war with cable, but that is unlikely to happen. The consumer is actually using more services and this is also helping the cable companies as people add flat-screen TVs, other consumer electronics devices, and high definition screens. This is pushing cable ARPs up as well.

The capital spending Verizon is doing on FiOS and that the cable companies are doing is to get business from an expanding pie. Cable went from 36 channels to 300 channels and that type of increase in services to customers is still growing. So, from the perspective of the industry the revenue-yield-per-household for broadband is moving up

When asked about friction between the cable companies and the FCC on net neutrality Seidenberg said that Verizon agrees with the FCC’s five principles of net neutrality, any access for anybody. The company believes that the marketplace will enforce these. Where Verizon doesn’t agree with the FCC is on its position of having government regulation. Seidenberg says net neutrality is a ruse. The market should allow Verizon and other broadband companies to provide competitive services at competitive prices. The broadband consumer market will provide limits and already does. Regardless of the outcome on issues at the FCC, Seidenberg said Verizon would adhere to the non-discrimination principles of net neutrality.

Douglas A. McIntyre.

Tech Profits From 3-D & Cinema Expansion Initiatives (AIXD, DIS, GE, NWS, VIA, DWA)

A small company called Access Integrated Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ: AIXD) made an announcement this morning that it received commitments from four major movie studios to provide movies to up to 10,000 digital cinemas in the U.S. and in Canada that will be in conformance with the DCI specifications.  The four studios are as follows:

  • Disney (NYSE: DIS),
  • News Corp.’s (NYSE: NWS) 20th Century Fox,
  • Viacom Inc.’s (NYSE: VIA) Paramount,
  • and General Electric’s (NYSE: GE) Universal Pictures.

This will take three years to complete, but the studios have agreed to pay virtual print fees for a limited time (it does not only a limited time) for movies projected on its systems.  This will help in the commitment for 3-D delivery on select features, and we’d note that Dreamworks (NYSE: DWA) just signaled this morning that the animation studio would be releasing a 3-D film that has been under works called "Monsters vs. Aliens" in 3-D next year.

Access Integrated Technologies is seeing shares up more than 25% to $3.21 today and its market cap is a mere $84 million after this pop.  Its 52-week trading range is $2.05 to $9.68.  We may be looking farther into the financial terms there for our weekly "Stocks Under $10" letter, so stay tuned on this one.  This would be up far more than this amount of the company didn’t have this one listed as for "a limited time only."

Jon C. Ogg
March 11, 2008

Fed Adds Another $100B, Will Take ‘Other’ Mortgages In Rescue Package (GS, C, BAC, MER, MS, WB)

The Federal Reserve has just made an expansion of its securities lending program to add much more liquidity to the banking system, but the difference here is that this goes above and beyond the banking companies.

The Federal Reserve will now lend up to $200 Billion of Treasury securities to primary dealers secured for a term of 28 days instead of the traditional overnight package in the existing program by a pledge of other securities, including federal agency debt, federal agency residential-mortgage-backed securities (MBS), and non-agency AAA/Aaa-rated private-label residential MBS.  That last group is the critical issue because this will allow these institutions to partially put these to the government for a month, and that is at least a stretch into new assets it will accept.

Securities will be made available through a weekly auction process beginning on March 27, 2008.  The Federal Open Market Committee has also authorized increases in existing temporary reciprocal currency swap lines with the European Central Bank of $30 Billion and the Swiss National Bank of $6 Billion, representing increases of $10 billion and $2 billion respectively.

This supplements the measures announced by the Fed last Friday to boost the $100 billion package.  This also ties in with the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England, so you can count this as part of a globally coordinated package.  It is also meant to be a probable substitute to what many were hoping would be an inter-meeting emergency rate cut.

This is not just helping out the bank stocks.  Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS), Citigroup (NYSE: C), Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), Merrill Lynch (NYSE: MER), Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) and Wachovia (NYSE: WB) are all indicating higher in pre-market trading.

S&P futures are up roughly 28 points and DJIA futures were up 200 after the news.

Jon C. Ogg
March 11, 2008

Top 10 Pre-Market Analyst Calls (CHTR, CTXS, DNE, LULU, MDTH, MSFT, PLX, SCSS, VNO, WY)

These are not the only analyst calls affecting shares this morning, but these are the first ones that 247WallSt.com is focusing on:

  • Charter Communications (NASDAQ: CHTR) Cut to Neutral at Credit Suisse.
  • Citrix Systems (NASDAQ: CTXS) cut to Hold at Jefferies.
  • Dune Energy (NYSE: DNE) Started as Buy at Jefferies.
  • lululemon athletica (NASDAQ: LULU) raised to Outperform at Credit Suisse.
  • MedCath Corp. (NASDAQ: MDTH) Raised to Outperform at Credit Suisse.
  • Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) started as Buy at Jefferies.
  • Protalix Biotherapeutics (AMEX: PLX) started as Buy at UBS.
  • Select Comfort (NASDAQ: SCSS) Raised to Market Perform at Morgan Keegan.
  • Vornado Realty (NYSE: VNO) Raised to Buy at Goldman Sachs.
  • Weyerhaeuser (NYSE: WY) raised to Buy at UBS.

Jon C. Ogg
March 11, 2008

Analysts Bail on WellPoint After Guidance Cut (WLP, UNH, AET)

WellPoint (NYSE: WLP) lowered guidance last night and put 2008 EPS targets at a new range of $5.76 to $6.01 EPS from an original $6.41 estimates.  It also put revenues at $62 Billion, yet First Call estimates were $63.5 Billion.  The company cited medical costs running above plan, lower than expected fully covered insurance enrollment, and the overall slowing economic environment.

What is interesting here is that analysts have abandoned the health benefits company.  It seems maybe insurers aren’t going to be immune from the economic downturn after all.  So far we have seen several downgrades and negative calls, and you can imagine that with 3 hours to the open there will be more downgrades or at least lowered targets from more firms.  Here are the downgrades seen so far:

  • cut to Peer Perform at Bear Stearns;
  • cut to Neutral at Goldman Sachs;
  • cut to Neutral at JPMorgan.

Aetna (NYSE: AET)just reiterated its prior quarterly and annual guidance targets after WellPoint dropped the bomb.  Aetna shares are still indicated lower by almost 5% to $43.00 after a $46.51 close yesterday.  Its 52-week trading range is $39.02 to $60.00.

UnitedHealth (NYSE: UNH) has so far not issued any statement nor revised any targets, yet its shares are indicated down 5% or more in pre-market trading around $42.00.  It closed at $45.07 yesterday, and its 52-week trading range is $44.00 to $59.46.

WellPoint shares are indicated down under $55.00 this morning, which would be close to a 16% drop.  Its 52-week high is $90.00 and analysts had a $96 target before the ball got dropped after the close yesterday.  More cuts are coming.

Jon C. Ogg
March 11, 2008

European Central Bank: No Rate Cuts With High Oil

ECB member Axel Weber say the central bank cannot cut rates further in the face of the rising inflation which will be caused by the high cost of oil.

“The surge in oil prices is a major concern and I don’t think it leaves us any room for a loosening of our monetary policy,” Weber, who is also president of Germany’s Bundesbank, said at a press conference in Frankfurt according to Bloomberg.

Douglas A. McIntyre

High Oil: A Year Of Bankruptcies For Auto And Airline Firms?

American Air (NYSE: AMR) dropped 10% yesterday to and hit $10.20. The shares have not been at that  level since 2004. American lost money three of the last five years. It had a small net profit in 2007 of just over $500 million on $22.9 billion in revenue. The margin is razor thin.

In 2007, American also had interest expense of over $900 million. Long-term debt is about $9.4 billion.

In an industry which is as well-known for its bankruptcies as it is for its bad food, 2008 is shaping up as a truly awful year. Fuel prices are rocketing as oil passes above $107 a barrel. The recession is likely to put a drag on passengers, both business and pleasure. The $500 million that American made last year could turn to a loss of several billion in the blink of an eye.

The situation in the auto industry is as bad, for many of the same reasons, especially high oil prices which have gas at almost $3.50 and a market where customers will wait one more year to buy a car because they are as poor as church mice.

Shares in Ford (NYSE: F) fell to $5.58 yesterday. In early 2006 when several credit analysts said Ford might have to seek bankruptcy protection its share were higher than they are now.

Ford is going to be squeezed and squeezed hard this year. Commodities costs for car components are rising rapidly. Lehman Brothers has estimated that this could add over $350 to the cost of each vehicle. Ford and other car companies cannot get buyers into dealers, even with large incentives. The US car industry could loss over one million domestic unit sales compared to 2007. That is over $25 billion in revenue. Twenty percent of that could come from Ford based on its market share and the rate at which its sales are dropping.

The Ford family will obviously resist any effort to take the firm into bankruptcy, but if the price of building a car moves much higher in the second half and sales are off 15% in North American for 2008, the choices may come down to one.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Google (GOOG) Driven Linux PCs Killed At Wal-Mart (WMT)

Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) launched a PC product loaded with its software and an operating system from open source Linux. The product was being sold in Wal-Mart (NYSE:WMT).

Unfortunately, Wal-Mart customer seem to like Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) Windows or Apple’s (NASDAQ: AAPL) Leopard OS. Wal-Mart has booted out the Google product.

TechCrunch quotes a Wal-Mart spokesman as saying "This really wasn’t what our customers were looking for.”

Douglas A. McIntyre

GE (GE) Says “No Way” To Selling NBC Universal

GE (NYSE: GE) will say once again that its entertainment business, NBC Universal, is not for sale.

“Should we sell NBCU? The answer is no!” Mr. Immelt writes in a message for investors in G.E.’s 2007 annual report according to The New York Times. Immelt is GE’s CEO.

With GE’s stock near a 52-week low, the decision is a bad one. NBC Universal lost revenue last year falling to $15.4 billion from $16.2 billion the year before. Profits moved up 7% to $3.1 billion.

Those numbers are like a boat anchor dragging on GE’s successful financial and infrastructure business. The infrastructure operation. GE’s largest, had a 2007 revenue increase of 21% to $57.9 billion. Operating income was up about the same amount to $10.8 billion.

Until GE finds a new home for operations like NBC Universal it is going to be very hard to get the company’s shares to move.

Douglas A. McIntyre

As TI (TXN) Drops Forecast, Trouble For Nokia (NOK) And Motorola (MOT)

Texas Instruments (NYSE: TXN) gave its mid-quarter forecast and no one liked it. The company projected slow growth and was especially gloomy about the sales of 3G chips. It said its largest customer was cutting back orders. Spies disguised as securities analysts were able to figure out that the customer in question was Nokia (NYSE: NOK).

Shares in Nokia tumbled as much as 6 percent today according to Reuters. Nokia will weather the trouble just fine. It is profitable, has an iron-clad balance sheet, and owns 40% of the world’s handset market.

TI’s news is very bad for Motorola (NYSE: MOT). Its market share has dropped from 22% two years ago to about 12%. In 2007, the company’s handset business lost $1.2 billion on $19 billion in sales. In 2006, the division had over $28 billion in sales and profits of $2.7 billion.

Motorola’s stock is at $9.52, near a 52-week low and down from the period high of $19.68. It is shopping its handset business, but there appear to be no takers. The company’s troubles seem to compound by the day.

A share price of $10 may be as good as Wall St. sees for the next year, and the stock could go much lower.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Only Mad Dogs And Economists Go Out In The Midday Sun

Mad dogs and Englishmen go out in the midday sun.The smallest Malay rabbit deplores this foolish habit.–Noel Coward.

A group of economists say the US should miss out on a recession this year. This is the opinion of the quarterly Anderson Forecast by the University of California at Los Angeles. According to the AP "The forecast expects the economy to post gross domestic product growth of about 1.5 percent this year, rising to about 3 percent growth in 2009."

Perhaps this is why economists are not payed a well as baseball players. In the Majors a batting average usually has to be above .250.

While everyone would desperately like to believe the Anderson Forecast, it has next to no credibility. Retail sales are running down too much now as are sales of consumer durables and cars. Fuel prices, which have gas moving toward $4 a gallon, are likely to empty consumer pockets so that there is nothing left in them but lint.

Lay-offs have only just begun. Troubled industries, especially the financial, retail, housing, airlines, and auto sectors are going to have to bleed jobs to keep from going deeply into the red. It is almost impossible to believe that the mortgage default rate will go anywhere but up.

But, none of that means a recession.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Stagflation In China

Stagflation would probably have to be measured differently in China than it is in the US. GDP in the big Asia company grows 10% a year. In the US, economists get excited by 3% improvements

Stagflation in the US would probably be created by negative growth and inflation of 3% or 4%.

Last month, inflation rose 8.7% in China, the highest rate in eleven years. Pork prices soared 63 percent from a year earlier, vegetables climbed 46 percent, and edible oil rose 41 percent according to Bloomberg. Coupled with that exports were up only 6.5%, the lowest rate in six years.

Economies in the US and Europe looks like they are in the grips of a recession, perhaps the worst one in three decades. That means that the rate of exports out of China could fall below 5%. Consumer consumption in the critical markets which import goods from China is already at a standstill.

If China’s inflation rate stay above 7% or 8% and exports drop from current levels, the government may not be able to use the nation’s growth rate to underwrite gas and diesel supplies. That would put upward pressure on all transportation costs. Stock markets in Shanghai and Hong Kong has already sold off of their highs of last year. The middle class has derived much of its wealth from stocks.

Stagflation is coming to China in the form of 8% inflation and a GDP growth rate of well below 5%.

The Beijing Olympics may not be so fun after all.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Media Digest 3/11/2008 Reuters, WSJ, NYTimes, FT, Bloomberg

According to Reuters, Goldman Sachs says the Fed may make an emergency rate cut.

Reuters writes that Nokia (NOK) is likely to sell down now that information from chip company Texas Instruments (TXN) shows that handset sales are slowing.

Reuters writes that Continental pilots voted to increase their merger fund in an attempt to block a potential combination with another airline.

Reuters writes that Citigroup (C) is merging its banking and brokerage units.

Reuters writes that Take-Two’s (TTWO) two largest shareholders have cut their stakes in the company.

The Wall Street Journal writes that Boeing (BA) will officially file a complaint about an Air Force tanker contract which went to a rival.

The Wall Street Journal writes that shares in Freddie Mac (FRE) and Fannie Mae (FNM) dropped on concerns that they may have to raise more capital.

The Wall Street Journal reports that Wellpoint cut its 2008 forecasts.

The Wall Street Journal reports that investors are concerned that Target’s (TGT) growing lending business may run into write-offs.

The New York Times writes that John Mack, CEO of Morgan Stanley (MS) is being questioned about his ability to lead after the firm took huge write-offs.

The New York Times writes that Citigroup (C) has put up $1 billion to support six hedge funds.

The New York Times writes that the CEO of GE (GE) has rejecte the notion of selling NBC.

The New York Times writes that oil has moved above $107 a barrel.

The FT writes that Rupert Murdoch says his company has not interest in a deal with Yahoo! (YHOO).

Bloomberg writest that China’s inflation rate moved up to 8.7%.

Bloomberg reports that it monthy survey of economists indicates that the economic slowdown will be deeper than previously forecast.

Douglas A. McIntyre