Monthly Archives: April 2008

The Woman Who Predicted The Mortgage Crisis Goes On The Record About The Future

A WVFC interview with Deutsche Bank’s Karen Weaver
by Elaine Lafferty

We kept hearing about this woman named Karen Weaver, a top Wall Street analyst, who correctly sounded the alarm three years ago about the subprime mortgage crisis that has shaken the global economy (PDF) to its core. If only Wall Street and the banking industry had listened.

Today, Weaver is a Managing Director and the Global Head of Securitization Research, responsible for Deutsche Bank’s research on securitized fixed-income products. She also manages Deutsche Bank Research-Americas, which has 300 professionals covering economics, debt and equity markets. Weaver joined Deutsche Bank from Credit Suisse First Boston in 2000. Prior to joining CSFB, she was a portfolio manager active in the ABS and MBS markets.

We asked Weaver — who everybody listens to now — for her thoughts on the economy and the future:

The interview continues here.

Lazard Hikes First Solar Target (FSLR)

There is an interesting call after First Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR) blew past earnings expectations and guidance today.  Lazard Capital Markets alternative energy analyst, Sanjay Shrestha, has reiterated his BUY rating on the stock.  But his target has been raised to $300.00 from $350.00.

Shrestha noted that its output translates to a throughput increase to 45MW per line, up from 44MW in 4Q07, suggesting capacity of 1,035MW by year-end 2009.

He believes that First Solar has $6.4 billion of total volume to be shipped under long-term contracts and it additionally has a 7.5MW order with SCE in Blythe, California, pending CPC.  Considering a factory cost ramp, efficiency/throughput gains, and lower cost/watt in Malaysia, Shrestha said he is raising 2008-2010 estimates.

This new $350 higher target represents a 40x multiple on recently raised 2010 estimates of $10.00, discounted back 15% for one year.

Interestingly enough, Shrestha’s target of $350 is well under some other analyst targets out there.

Jon C. Ogg
April 30, 2008

Biotech Business Daily (BTRX, BMRN, DSCO, ENDP, MNKD, MIPI, QSC, TECH)

Today almost feels like the "March of Biotech-inguins" because most of the movers were small companies you might otherwise miss.  Here were the big movers:

  • Barrier Therapeutics (NASDAQ: BTRX) ran way up after first quarter results reported yesterday showed a 207% increase in revenues from last year at $8.4 million, driven by growth in sales of Vusion and Xolegel. Shares closed up 18% at $2.29 on a 52-week range of $1.90 to $7.60.
  • BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc. (NASDAQ: BMRN) showed a first quarter positive profit or $0.02 EPS on a net income of $1.7 million. Analysts expected losses of $0.05 EPS. Earnings were driven primarily by sales of enzyme replacement therapy Naglazyme. Shares closed up almost 8% at $36.46. The 52-week range is $15.99 to $41.00.
  • Discovery Labs (NASDAQ: DSCO) trading up in anticipation of FDA approval for lung surfactant, Surfaxin, a treatment for premature infants suffering from respiratory distress. The company communicated confidence that any regulatory concerns have been ironed out and this third FDA result will be positive. Shares rose 17% to $2.87. The 52-week range is $1.75 to $3.75.
  • Endo Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: ENDP) settled a proxy battle with shareholder D.E. Shaw by nominating William Spangler to the board. They posted earnings today showing a net income of $59.53 and $0.44 EPS. Shares closed down 0.7% at $24.83. The 52-week range is $22.62 to $35.85.
  • Mannkind Corporation (NASDAQ: MNKD) up over 16% in anticipation of earnings release Monday. Shares up $0.37 at $2.60 at the close. The 52-week range is $1.86 to $14.71.
  • Molecular Insight Pharma (NASDAQ: MIPI) up almost 7% today on no news, although some just may be the thin volume and wide bid/ask spread. The oncology molecular imaging pharmaceutical company is sitting at $7.83 on a 52-week range of $5.66 to $12.95.
  • Questcor (AMEX: QSC) down despite posting strong first quarter results showing a positive net income of $6.5 million compared to a loss of $3.8 in first quarter 2007. The company also amended agreement Acthar distribution discount prices, positively impacting Questcor cash flows. Shares closed down 2.5% at $4.24. The 52-week range is $0.21 to $6.60.
  • Techne Corp. (NASDAQ: TECH) up after third quarter profit jumped 24% to $29.6 million or $0.76 EPS, beating estimates. Shares closed at $72.52, up 1%, on a 52-week range of $54.49 to $72.00.

Rachel Lopez
April 30, 2008

Cablevision (CVC) And Newsday: Another Round Of Muddled Thinking

Cablevision (CVC) is apparently looking at buying Long Island newspaper Newsday with Jared Kushner, a rich youngster who owns the tiny weekly The New York Observer. As far any anyone knows, the Observer has never made a dime.

The word from Reuters is that the bid would be above the $580 million already offered by NY Daily News owner Mort Zuckerman and Rupert Murdoch’s News Corp (NWS), which owns the NY Post.

Cablevision’s board has already shafted its shareholders. The controlling stockholders in CVC, the Dolans, made the rash offer of $36.26 for the company in mid-2007. That was just before cable companies began to report weaker earnings due to increasing competition from phone operators like Verizon (VZ). CVC now sells for $23,

There are no savings for Cablevision if it buys a newspaper. If it makes an offer in partnership with the Observer, the NY-based paper is so tiny that any cost cutting would be meaningless.

The reasons behind the NY Post and NY Daily News offers have some sense to them. By combining with another large daily paper which has overlapping geographic distribution, the chances of taking out tens of millions of dollars in costs a year are excellent.

Putting a cable company with a daily newspaper is like crossing a chicken with a polar bear. It just won’t work out.

Douglas A. McIntyre

The 52-Week Low Club (LUM)(RAI)(UNH)(CLX)(GRMN)

Luminent (LUM) Company proposes to restructure. Shares down to $.24 from 52-week high of $10.78.

Reynolds American (RAI) Falling profit and lower guidance. Drops to $52.17 from 52-week high of $72.

International Paper (IP) Increased costs hurt earnings. Sells down to $25.81 from 52-week high of $41.57.

Unitedhealth Group (UNH) Healthcare sector still selling off. Dips to $32.50 from 52-week high of $59.46.

The Clorox Company (CLX) Moving down ahead of earnings. Falls to $52.86 from 52-week high of $68.36.

Garmin (GRMN) Profit misses estimates. Shares down to $38.75 from 52-week high of $125.68.

Douglas A. McIntyre

SIRIUS & XM.. Still Waiting, Extend Termination Dates (SIRI, XMSR)

XM Satellite Radio (NASDAQ: XMSR) and SIRIUS Satellite Radio (NASDAQ: SIRI) have just announced that both companies have agreed not to exercise their rights to terminate the proposed merger agreement based on today’s date.  The companies are have agreed to further extend the merger agreement… "as necessary, for rolling two week periods unless either side notifies the other of its intention not to extend."

This pending merger remains subject to the approval from the FCC and satisfaction of all other applicable conditions. 

We’ve already received a nod from the DOJ back on March 24, 2008, so now we are just waiting for the FCC.  SIRIUS and XM have both  obtained stockholder approval for the pending merger, all the way back in November 2007.

Waiting for this merger decision from the FCC and all the lobbying pressuring it is starting to look the same as watching 5-year olds playing tee-ball.  You just know it is going to come down to 1 point, and the kids are out of control. 

Jon C. Ogg
April 30, 2008

FOMC Cuts… One & Done?? (DIA, SPY, QQQQ, TLT)

Today, Bernanke & Co at the FOMC gave us their rate decision.  The FOMC has decided to the Fed Funds Rate 0.25% to 2% and the Discount Rate by 0.25% to 2.25%.

As far as we were concerned, the language, tone, and general fed-speak is now more important to us than the actual rate move.

At 1:55 PM EST today, about 20 minutes before Fed-Time, the key ETF’s for the market were as follows:

  • DIAMONDS Trust (AMEX: DIA) $129.27 (+1.09; +0.85%)
  • SPDRs (AMEX: SPY) $139.55 (+0.47; +0.34%)
  • PowerShares QQQ (NASDAQ: QQQQ) $47.73 (+0.13; +0.27%) 
  • iShares Lehman 20+ Year Treas Bond (NYSE: TLT) $92.56 (+0.11; +0.12%) 

We still believe the U.S. is in a recessionary environment despite a positive GDP number this morning, just like Warren Buffett noted this week.  The difference is that we now believe the dangers of the systematic implosion and major spreading of counterparty defaults have passed.

Here were some of the FOMC comments and some of our conjecture:

Read More »

Exxon Mobil Hikes Dividend… Confidence On Higher Oil Prices? (XOM)

Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM) has just given another vote of confidence on higher oil prices, or so it would seem.  "BIG OIL," or dare we say "Standard Oil," has announced that it was boosting its quarterly dividend.  We have been critical about oil companies not paying enough out to shareholders to recognize the new climate for oil prices, and even speculated on the possibility of integrated oils hiking their dividends.

Now with the dividend going from $0.35 to $0.40 per quarter, and based on a $93.25 share price, this new dividend yield would come to 1.7%.  That might not exactly be a barb-burning dividend but it is a decent hike.  It was just a year ago that Exxon raised its dividend from $0.32 to $0.35, and only about 15 months before that the dividend had been $0.29.

Maybe the famed T. Boone Pickens was right.  Maybe yesterday’s priced DO reflect $75 oil rather than $100 oil.

Exxon Mobil’s 52-week trading range is $77.55 to $95.27.

Jon C. Ogg
April 30, 2008

H-P Proves Theoretical Circuits, Theoretically (HPQ)

Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ) has announced that researchers from its own research facility in HP Labs have proven the existence of the theoretical "fourth fundamental circuit element" in electrical engineering.

H-P said that this advancement could make it possible "to develop computer systems that have memories that do not forget, do not need to be booted up, consume far less power and associate information in a manner similar to that of the human brain."

Nature has the full report. More data can be found at H-P’s dedicated site.

Keep in mind that this is a mathematical model, not a working prototype.  It called it a  physical example of a "memristor," the blend of "memory resistor."

Interestingly enough, it was just in the late-1990’s when we were all using this new thing called Pentium when we were reading about micro-computing and multi-core processors being mainstream.  In the early 1990’s and late 1980’s the promise was more desktop power than most supercomputers of the time, when many thought they’d never need a computer. They’ve supposedly been theorizing this since 1971. 

Theory and science fiction have a way of converging into modern technology… if you are patient enough.  All that matters here is this differential:  Will this be HAL? or will it be Milla Jovovich?

Jon C. Ogg
April 30, 2008

IPO FILING: Echo Global Logistics (ECHO)

Echo Global Logistics filed with the SEC for an IPO today. The filing shows a maximum aggregate offering of $100 million. They have applied to trade on the NASDAQ Global Market under the symbol “ECHO” and the underwriters for the transaction include Lehman Brothers, Citi, William Blair and Company, Barrington Research, Thomas Weisel Partners LLC, and Craig-Hallum Capital Group.

Echo is a leading business process outsourcing for transportation and logistics. Their technology platform, Evolved Transportation Manager, allows them to efficiently meet shipping needs and assist freight management. Their strategy to minimize shipping costs and maximize efficiency lies in identification and utilization of excess capacity. Since company began in 2005, their customer base and revenues have grown dramatically. In 2005 they generated revenues of $7.3 million and net income was a loss of $0.5 million. Serving over 4,600 clients in 2007, net income hit $1.7 million.

In 2006, according to Armstrong and Associates, only 17% of logistic expenditures in the United States were outsourced. Echo believes that this number will increase and the market will expand over the next several years, generating additional customers and revenues. 

You can join our open email distribution list to hear about previews for other IPO’s, mergers, spin-offs, break-ups, special financings, and other special situations.

Rachel Lopez
April 30, 2008

Citigroup (C): Need To Raise Another $15 Billion?

Not everyone believes that Citigroup’s (C) current stock sale of $4.5 billion will end the large bank’s need for capital.

Oppenheimer analyst Meredith Whitney thinks that ongoing problems at the firm will lead it to sell asset or need to raise another $10 billion to $15 billion according to Reuters.

On the face of it, that could dilute current Citi shareholders by another 12% or more. The news of the $4.5 billion has taken the stock down over 3% to $25.51.

If Whitney is right, Citi’s stock is moving back under $20.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Discount & Drop, Yet Double Hull Trades Under Offer Price (DHT)

Double Hull Tankers (NYSE: DHT) priced its 8 million common share public offering at $10.50 per share Tuesday evening.  This was very fast compared to its filing date

After discounts and fees, the double hull tanker fleet operator will receive net proceeds of $79,478,360 and the proceeds are for general corporate purposes such as acquisitions of vessels and businesses, strategic alliances, reduction of outstanding borrowings, capital expenditures and working capital.  After the reaction, Double Hull’s market cap is about $313 million before the effect of these shares.

Merrill Lynch & Co. and UBS Investment Bank are joint book-running managers and Dahlman Rose & Company is co-manager for the offering. Underwriters have been granted 1.2 million common shares to purchase for over-allotments.

What is interesting is that this is also a decent share discounting considering the size and the use of funds.  Double Hull Tankers are not exactly in oversupply around the globe, and they are the new standard for transporting crude overseas. 

On Monday, before the filing, shares were around $12.00.  Yesterday shares fell to $10.50 ahead of the pricing.  Despite a $10.50 pricing, shares are down marginally at $10.41 after 90-minutes of trading.

Usually shares rise after a drop like this, despite the dilution.  The 52-week trading range is $9.32 to $18.79.  Would it be fair to refer to the reaction to this financing as… a tanker?

You can join our open email distribution list to hear about previews for other secondary offerings, mergers, spin-offs, break-ups, IPO’s, special financings, and other special situations.

Jon C. Ogg
April 30, 2008

This Morning in the Oil Patch.. Earnings Away! (NOV, HES, FSLR, BP, VLO)

This morning we have some key earnings from the likes of National-Oilwell Varco (NYSE:NOV) and Hess Corporation (NYSE:HES), and it wouldn’t be fair to pint out the solar earnings competition from First Solar, Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR).  There was also a key analyst call on in BP plc (NYSE: BP) and Valero (NYSE: VLO).

National-Oilwell Varco (NYSE:NOV) reported earnings of $397.6 million and $1.11 EPS for the first quarter of 2008, up from $275.9 million and $0.78 EPS for the same period last year. Revenues totaled $2.685 billion, up 24% from a year ago and 1% from the fourth quarter of 2007. Analyst estimates for the first quarter were $1.09 EPS on revenues of $2.73 billion.

NOV noted a 10% increase in its backlog for drilling and other capital equipment to $9.9 billion from $9 billion in the fourth quarter of 2007. New orders during the quarter totaled $2 billion, reflecting increased demand for offshore drilling equipment. Operating profit rose more than 3% from a year ago, but dropped by 0.5% compared with the previous quarter, indicating that NOV is facing some of the same pricing pressure as others in the industry.

The company’s stock, which has dropped about 8% since April 22nd when other oilfield services competitors reported poor performance, is actually back up in positive territory this morning.

Hess Corporation (NYSE:HES) also reported first quarter numbers, and they were predictably big. Earnings more than doubled from a year ago to $759 million on revenues of $10.72 billion, and $2.34 EPS vs. $1.17 a year ago. Analysts estimates averaged $2.02 EPS on revenues of $10.55. Virtually all the increase is attributable to a $32.54/b increase in the company’s selling price of oil. Refining and marketing were off $85 million (84%). The company’s stock is up more than $3.00 in pre-open trading.

Credit Suisse has made a coverage switch here of significance in the oil patch: BP plc (NYSE: BP) was raised to Outperform from Neutral, while Valero (NYSE: VLO) was downgraded to Neutral from Outperform.

Yesterday, after the close, oil magnate and billionaire came out on CNBC and said that the equities of energy companies reflect something more like $75 oil rather than $100 oil, which is his vernacular for gross under-priced for an environment where he thinks $100 +/- is the new norm.  Pickens also noted the great need to diversify into alternative energy methods as well.

Speaking of alternative energy, shares of First Solar, Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR) are trading up 7% at $305.00, almost at the top of its $54.20 to $308.24 trading range over the last year.  The company posted $0.57 EPS and $196.9 million in revenues, versus estimates of $0.47 EPS and $183.6 million in revenues.  The solar leader beat earnings expectations and raised guidance to $975 million to $1.05 Billion in revenues (above its prior $900 to $950 million estimate).  It has also raised its annual production to a range of 420 to 460 megawatts from a prior range of 400 to 430 megawatts.  The company is also expecting a modest rise in Q2 revenues.

Paul Ausick
April 30, 2008

GDP: None Dare Call It Conspiracy

The reading for Q1-2008 GDP is out, and it’s no real surprise that GDP managed to show a small gain of +0.6% on the advance and preliminary number.  Bloomberg had noted a +0.5% Q1 GDP reading as the median expectation, and apparently the range of estimates was -0.8% up to +1.5%.  Other sources had +0.6% as the consensus estimates.

With the deflator and adjusting for prices, the reading came in at +3.5%, down from +3.9% in Q4-2007 and up from +1.8% in Q1-2007.

Spending rose 1.0% in Q1, while Durable Goods were down 6.1%. Non-durable spending was -1.3% and services spending rose by 3.4%.  Spending contributed +0.68% and we saw inventories up again.  You don’t want to look at the housing figures.

As far as the prior quarter, Q4-2007 saw a +0.6% rise.  many argued that this number was merely above the Zero mark because of inventory build-ups and because of some higher prices that were passed on internationally.

The numbers don’t actually describe the term recession because there are not yet two consecutive quarters of Negative GDP.

Warren Buffett has already said its a recession for the man in the street, and we’ll take his views over the National Bureau of Economic Research any day of the week.  By the time they say we are in a recession, we may actually be coming out of it.

None dare call it conspiracy.

Jon C. Ogg
April 30, 2008

United & FTD In Odd Merger (UNTD, FTD)

There may be one of the stranger mergers out there today in Internet land, as United Online, Inc. (NASDAQ: UNTD) is acquiring FTD Group, Inc. (NYSE: FTD) in a merger valued at some $800 million.

FTD shareholders will receive $7.34 in cash, 0.4087 shares of United common stock per FTD share, and $3.31 principal amount of United Online in 13% senior secured notes due in 2013. This total consideration, before any share change in UNTD will equate to $15.08 (based upon $10.83 United share price.

This furthermore comes to an total consideration received of $456 million to FTD, composed of $222 million cash, 12.35 million shares of UNTD, and $100 million in the debt.  After payments and disbursements have been made, FTD holders will still own approximately 15% of the combined United Online.

To complicate things further, United Online may elect to increase the cash consideration payable to FTD’s
stockholders by $2.81 in full substitution of the debt, so FTD stockholders could receive a total of $10.15 in cash and 0.4087 shares of United Online per FTD share.

We had featured United Online in our "10 Stocks Under $10" weekly newsletter, and one issue of our "Special Situation Investing Newsletter" featured United Online as one of teh small cap Internet stocks that could actually be rolled up by a larger player.

So far UNTD shares are up almost 8% pre-market on thin volume trading, and FTD shares are up almost 7% in pre-market trading; although the share volume was very thin.

You can join our open email distribution list to hear about previews for other mergers, spin-offs, break-ups, IPO’s, special financings, and other special situations.

Jon C. Ogg
April 30, 2008

Jon Ogg produces and edits the Special Situation Investing Newsletter for 247WallSt.com.

Garmin EPS Almost Bad GPS, But… (GRMN)

Garmin Ltd. (NASDAQ: GRMN) posted first quarter earnings that were off the mark.  The GPS leader posted a profit gain of 6% to $147.8 million, or $0.69 EPS, on revenues of $663.8 million.  First Call had estimates at $0.75 EPS on $705.1 million.

The company generated $166 million in free cash flow during Q1-2008, and it ended with cash
and marketable securities balance of $1.2 billion. Overall gross margins remained stronger than expected as its automobile margins remained flat, marine gross margin rose by 9 points and outdoor/fitness and aviation remained stable.

This note from the release here shows a cautious company: While we are pleased with our strong performance in the first quarter, it is important to note that the global economic slowdown has impacted companies across the board.

Frankly, non of this should be a shock at all, at least not if there is anything similar to an efficient market theory where information manages to get priced in.  What is interesting is that estimates from Wall Street analysts haven’t really come in that much, despite different waves of data signaling slower sales and despite a near-50% share price drop since the last few days of 2007.

Shares closed at $46.44 yesterday, and shares are down over 5.5% at $43.84 in pre-market trading.  The 52-week trading range is $42.01 to $125.68.

Jon C. Ogg
April 30, 2008

Top 10 Pre-Market Analyst Calls (ANPI, BP, CBS, JRCC, WFR, SVVS, SNN, SOHU, KNOT, UA)

These are not the only analyst calls affecting shares today, but these are ten of the calls that we are focusing on this Wednesday morning:

  • Angiotech Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: ANPI) raised to Outperform at RBC Capital Markets.
  • BP plc (NYSE: BP) raised to Outperform at Credit Suisse.
  • CBS (NYSE: CBS) downgraded to Market Perform at Wachovia; Raised to Hold at Citigroup.
  • James River Coal (NYSE: JRCC) raised to Buy at UBS.
  • MEMC Electronics (NYSE: WFR) downgraded to Neutral at JPMorgan.
  • SAVVIS (NASDAQ: SVVS) downgraded to Hold at Jefferies and downgraded to Equal-Weight at Lehman.
  • Smith & Nephew (NYSE: SNN) raised to Outperform at Wachovia.
  • Sohu.com (NASDAQ: SOHU) downgraded to Perform at Oppenheimer.
  • The Knot, Inc. (NASDAQ: KNOT) raised to Outperform at Oppenheimer.
  • Under Armour (NYSE: UA) downgraded to Hold at Citigroup.

Jon C. Ogg
April 30, 2008

GM (GM) Knocks One Out

GM (GM) revised its outlook for US car sales in 2008 down to 15 million. But, results moved the shares up 5%.

GM revenue dropped less than 1% to $42.7 billion. Auto earnings before 2007 adjustments moved up slightly to $392 million.

But, the reported results for the first quarter of 2008 include unfavorable special items totaling $2.9 billion. The charges include $1.45 billion to record a non-cash partial impairment of our equity investment in GMAC.

GM North America revenue for the first quarter 2008 was $24.5 billion, compared to $28.1 billion in the year-ago period. The decline in GMNA first quarter revenue was significantly impacted by the lost production due to the American Axle strike.

GM Europe revenue was up 17 percent and adjusted earnings before tax improved by $137 million.

Adjusted earnings before tax in the GM Latin America region more than doubled in the first quarter of 2008, driven by continued strong market growth and gains in GM market share in the region

GM Asia-Pacific adjusted earnings before tax increased by 49 percent, driven by strong volume and improvements in material cost performance, which were partially offset by mix and pricing deterioration and increased structural costs incurred to support growth.

Now, about those strikes and that Adelphia investment.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Dubai Pressures Europe

Dubai has told the EU that it will not sign any pacts which restrict how and where it will invest in the region. It considers the request a form a discrimination.

To point a point on it, Dubai can refrain from investing in Europe if it cannot do so on reasonable terms.

The FT writes that the head of Dubai World, the nation’s sovereign fund said “People who have money to invest, if they hear that somebody’s going to discriminate against them, they wouldn’t go [there]."

Douglas A. McIntyre

Europe Markets 4/30/2008 (BCS)(SAP)(ALU)

Markets in Europe were down modestly.

The FTSE fell .7% to 6,044. Barclays (BCS) was down 3.2% to 445.5.

The DAXX was off .4% to 6,859. BMW was down 2.1% to 34.30. SAP (SAP) was off 4.6% to 31.53

The CAC 40 fell .6% to 4,948. Alcatel-Lucent (ALU) was off 7.8% to 4.16.

Data from Reuters.

Douglas A. McIntyre