One of the head investment strategists at Merrill Lynch thinks the stock market is heading lower, perhaps much lower.

"The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index has never reached a low within the first three months of a contraction, said Brian Belski, Merrill’s U.S. sector strategist," according to Bloomberg. If the theory is right, the market may not bottom until the third or fourth quarter.

Not to seem to be piling on, oil rose to $136.56. The Saudi offer to increase output is being viewed as bogus because the amount is so small. And, Nigerian rebels are still using Shell installations in that country for target practice.

The second half of the day may be better.

Douglas A. McIntyre