The Mosaic Company (NYSE: MOS) has decided to start paying out a dividend to shareholders. The company’s board of directors has declared a quarterly dividend of $0.05 per share on the common stock payable each quarter.
This dividend will be paid on August 21, 2008 to stockholders of record as of the close on August 7, 2008. Future dividends declarations are subject to approval by the board.
AMD (NYSE:AMD) must have read our earnings synopsis and must have finally read enough times over and over about canning Hector Ruiz. He’s finally out, albeit not 100% of the way as he should be.
The company just announced that the board of directors has FINALLY elected President and COO Dirk Meyer as the company’s new chief executive officer.
Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (NYSE: AMD) has posted earnings, or at least it has posted a lack of earnings via wide losses. The distantly second number 2 PC processor company posted earnings of -$0.60 EPS (-$0.44 after a favorable impact on earnings) on $1.349 Billion in revenues.
First Call had estimates pegged at -$0.52 EPS and $1.45 Billion in revenues.
Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT) just posted earnings. The software and tech behemoth posted $0.46 EPS and $15.8 in revenues.
First Call’s estimates for the quarter are $0.47 EPS on $15.65 Billion in revenues.
The company also gave guidance for next quarter of $0.47 to $0.48 EPS on $14.7 to $14.9 Billion in revenues, while estimates are $0.49 EPS on $15.06 Billion in revenues.
International Business Machines Corp.(NYSE: IBM), or IBM, just posted earnings of $1.98 EPS on $26.82 Billion in revenues. Estimates were $1.82 EPS on $25.92 Billion in revenues, according to First Call.
The company is also showing some longer-term goals. IBM said "We feel good about our full-year outlook and our 2010 road map for $10 to $11 of earnings per share."
The company’s guidance for 2008 EPS is now at $8.75, above the $8.56 estimate.
Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) just posted earnings and the search giant posted $4.63 non-GAAP EPS and $3.9 Billion in ex-TAC revenues.
First Call estimates were $4.74 EPS on $3.87 Billion in revenues.
We’ve had essentially a 500 point rally in the DJIA in just the last two days and oil is starting to lose its mo-mo. Yet some companies just refuse to participate in the rally because of news, and many look like they were caught in a mid-city explosion (hence the image).
Regardless of how the market does you can always count on many news-driven or sector driven events causing new lows. One thing is for sure during a weak economy and during choppy earnings, there will be many more stocks in the coming weeks hitting 52-week lows. Some will continue hitting new lows over and over.
The company submitted a filing outlining this plan. Its board of directors has approved a proposal to exchange employees’ post-IPO out-of-the-money stock options, but this has to be approved by stockholders and the company is scheduling a special meeting to gain that approval.
IBM (NYSE: IBM) is set to report earnings after today’s close. Big Blue is expected to post $1.82 EPS on $25.92 Billion in revenues, according to First Call. It is expected to post $1.95 EPS and $26.07 Billion in revenues for next quarter, and it is expected to post $8.56 EPS on $107 Billion in revenues for Fiscal Dec-2008. If the company gives earnings guidance way out for 2009, those estimates from First Call are expected to be $9.59 EPS on $112.15 Billion in revenues.
Interestingly enough, the company’s forward earnings could be different because it has been retiring so much stock via share buybacks.
After the close of trading today, we will get to see earnings out of search and online ad giant Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG). The company will be competing for earning attention as Microsoft is also reporting after the close.
The estimates out of First Call are $4.74 EPS on $3.87 Billion in revenues. Google has never given any formal guidance ahead for future earnings but for comparison Wall Street expects Q3 to see $4.99 EPS and $4.09 Billion in revenues and for Fiscal 2008 (Dec.) it expects $20.14 EPS on $16.18 Billion in revenues.
After the close of trading today, we have an earnings attention war with Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT), the software and IT giant, going head to head for earnings attention with Google. While these companies both want to take away from each other, they are both still quite different in their products, models. and practices.
Over in Redmond, Washington, Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) is on deck and this report will actually mark its Fical-2008 year-end. First Call’s estimates for the quarter are $0.47 EPS on $15.65 Billion in revenues. For next quarter the estimates are $0.49 EPS on $15.06 Billion in revenues. Estimates for 2009 are actually higher than they were at last quarter’s report, and the consensus for Fiscal June 2009 is $2.16 EPS (almost 15% expected growth) and revenues are expected to be about $67.3 Billion in revenues (implied 10% to 11% growth).
This is going to be an interesting quarter because the company now only has Windows Vista on the market as of the end of June. But its operating system sales also have Apple as a much stronger emerging competitor than in the last upgrade cycle. The good news is that we’ve seen solid guidance out of PC makers in Dell and H-P and that implies strong Windows O/S sales. With about $35 Billion in cash and equivalents at the end of last quarter and with the company regaining its footing from the called-off Yahoo! deal, the future direction of the company’s web-based strategies and efforts are still somewhat of an unknown by Wall Street (and maybe even inside the company itself). Is the company going to go back after Yahoo! or will it do a deal with AOL? Those are some of the many questions still unanswered. Our Steve Ballmer exclusive interview may offer a glimpse of what lies ahead, but we’d admit that this could change faster than you can scroll down this page.
Analysts still have an average price target north of $37.50, which implies an upside to this stock of over 35% from today’s levels. We’d also note that options expire tomorrow, but it looks like options traders are expecting a move of up to about $0.85 in either direction. Shares are up almost 10% from very recent lows, but they are also down by close to 25% since the highs at the end of 2007.
Jon C. Ogg
July 17, 2008
Millennium Cell Inc. (NASDAQ: MCEL) (technically pink sheets) has approved a liquidation plan, and one that is going to bode poorly for shareholders. Its board of directors has approved a liquidation plan via the sale of its assets followed by the distribution of the proceeds to its creditors.
It states up front that at current estimated asset valuations, there is no expectation that the holders of the Company’s common stock will receive any proceeds through the liquidation.
This shouldn’t be a huge surprise as the company ceased operations in May. Its discussions for a reverse merger did not work and were terminated so this is essentially all that is left for an option.
The company had been a developing stage company for hydrogen batteries for use primarily in portable electronic devices for the military, medical, industrial, and consumer markets. Too bad, but not all alternative energy companies can survive. This was a $20+ stock back in 2001.
In short, Bye, bye!"
Jon C. Ogg
July 17, 2008
SunPower Corporation (NASDAQ: SPWR) is under a tremendous amount of pressure so far after the company posted earnings that were above expectations. The solar giant beat EPS targets by $0.10 with $0.61 EPS and posted a 120% rise in revenues of $382.8 million (estimates $343.1 million).
The problem is that guidance for Q3 looks mostly in-line with estimates, despite its higher 2008 guidance. The company also raised 2009 guidance, but these are not substantially above estimates.
The facts are that the report itself was a solid one for the quarter. But the guidance wasn’t enough to please an ever-growing demand from investors who look at the current trailing P/E ratio of 100+.
So how do these valuations stack up for 2008 and 2009? There has already been an 8% haircut on the stock to $73.50 and its market cap is about $6.25 Billion. If you take the top-end of its guidance for 2008 we get forward multiples of 31-times earnings and about 4.3-times revenues. For 2009’s forward multiples we get a derived 21-times earnings and 2.9-times forward revenues.
Traders are divided into groups who want to see blowout earnings followed by blowout guidance and others who look at valuations of today and valuations of tomorrow. At some point, those forward multiples may look cheap enough to entice both groups.
While shares are down over 50% from the late 2007 highs, these shares are still up about 200% from late 2005 when they first started trading.
Jon C. Ogg
July 17, 2008
This morning ValueClick (NASDAQ: VCLK) came out and dropped the bomb on forward guidance. The immediate guidance isn’t such a bad issue but the forward guidance is. It lowered revenue guidance by 2% to $163 to $164 million, but cost cuts helped earnings guidance to $0.17 to $0.18 (up $0.02 on both).
The online ad company cut its 2008 guidance from $730 to $745 million down to $655 to $675 million and cut prior EPS range of $0.81 to $0.83 down to a new lower range of $0.69 to $0.71.
There is a much more important issue than this company itself though, and one which could have ramifications if the company is right. Tom Vadnais, CEO, said, “Due to increasing macroeconomic uncertainty, we no longer anticipate the seasonal strength in ad spending we typically see in the second half of the year.” This concern might be analogous to the tail wagging the dog.
ValueClick is essentially the last man standing on an independent basis in the online ad impression sector. Its market cap is also only about $1.1 Billion after a drop of 16% to $11.50 this morning (a new 52-week low). But this may have ramifications elsewhere. Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) bought DoubleClick. WPP acquired 24/7 Real Media (formerly TFSM). Microsoft paid a vast sum for aQuantive (formerly AQNT). And every other major media and content company has been making their online ad spending acquisition plays.
There are two scenarios here and both are as logical as a coin toss. Either the slowdown in online ad spending is systematic and is going to slow everywhere. That would be really bad for the giants who spent billions to buy players in this field. The second possibility is that customers are opting to just bypass ValueClick since they don’t necessarily need an independent online ad placement firm. With the dominance of Google and others, it is possible that online advertisers are just going direct to the top 4 or 5 online destinations directly as they all have their own departments for this.
We are now in the midst of a full fledged earnings season with literally dozens and dozens of companies competing for headline attention. This is one of those situations that may get overlooked, but it will be critical for all online ad players and online media companies who live on online ad payments. We’ll probably get a better handle on this after the close of today when Google and Microsoft report earnings.
Jon C. Ogg
July 17, 2008
This morning we are seeing futures rise on the news from DJIA components being solid on the earnings front. There are some mixed reactions, but we saw solid earnings in a tough environment out of Coca-Cola Co. (NYSE: KO), JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM), and United Technologies Corp. (NYSE: UTX).
Coca-Cola Co. (NYSE: KO) managed to beat EPS targets by $0.05 with $1.01 per share on a 17% revenue jump to $9.05 Billion; First Call estimates were $0.96 EPS and $8.93 Billion in revenues. The company said that its worldwide unit case volume rose by 3% in the quarter, with the breakdown being a 5% gain in International and essentially a "maintaining unit case volume" in North America. The company called it a difficult operating environment. Because of currency adjustments and because of the difficult environment, shares are indicated down 2% at $51.20 before the open. Its 52-week trading range is $49.52 to $65.59.
JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) posted a more than 50% drop in net income to about $2 Billion or $0.54 EPS but that is above the $0.44 estimate from First Call. The banking giant also took a $3.46 billion provision for credit losses, which included a $1.3 Billion gain for loss reserves. Jamie Dimon is not raising the dividend but shares are indicated up over 4% at $37.65 before the open. Its 52-week range $29.24 to $49.95.
United Technologies Corp. (NYSE: UTX) also beat its earnings targets with $1.38 EPS on a 12.5% gain to $15.67 Billion in revenues. First Call had estimates at $1.30 and $15.33 Billion in revenues. The company issued mixed guidance for Fiscal-2008 as it sees $4.80 to $4.98 EPS, above prior target of $4.65-4.85 and above $4.89 estimates from First Call. It also sees Fiscal-2008 revenues north of $60 Billion ($59.78 Billion consensus). United Tech’s shares are trading up over 5% at $64.50 in pre-market trading. Its 52-week trading range is $58.87 to $82.50.
Dow futures are up roughly 84 points at 11,290 in pre-market levels right before the open.
Jon C. Ogg
July 17, 2008
24/7 Wall St. recently listed The 25 Most Valuable Blogs. Two have been sold. Ars Technica was acquired by Conde Nast for about what we estimated. The 24/7 price tag was $15 million. Alley Insider reported that that Ars Technica’s price was $15 million to $20 million. PaidContent was sold to the Brit Guardian Group last week. The rumored price was $30 million. 24/7 estimated that the firm was only worth $3.5 million. We are told that a very large portion of the purchase price was contingent on future performance, but our number was probably still way off.
A few days ago, a rumor made the rounds to the effect that AOL was trying to buy TechCrunch for $30 million to $40 million. That price would be right on our estimated value of $30 million. TechCrunch management may want as much as $100 million for the company, which means it won’t be sold.
Based on audience and quality of content, there are about ten to fifteen blogs which will be sold to major media companies over the next year or so. The media conglomerates need them because the blogs have done well in portions of the market where traditional media have not. In a few cases, blogs have content which would be complimentary to the content of a division inside a company like Time Warner, Viacom, or The New York Times.
These blogs are especially attractive economically. Many of the largest blogs employ only a few people. That gives them a financial operating leverage that most traditional media do not have. It is much easier to make money on a big blog than it is to make money on a big magazine or newspaper. That will become a more frequent as traditional media lose more of their ad base
.
24/7 Wall St. has reviewed its list of most valuable blogs and added a couple. We have looked at the major media companies that are most likely to buy a particular property. Then, we have added a new element. That is an opinion of which large company needs each blog the most. Being a willing buyer and being a needy operator is not always the same thing. Ars Technica may have gone the Conde Nast, but the new CNET division of CBS (CBS), which is losing a lot of its audience to blogs, probably needed it more.
The list:
The Huffington Post will probably be bought by The Washington Post Company (WPO), which, oddly enough, is the company which needs Huffington the most. Two years ago, The Post set very high hurdles for the revenue out of its internet business. So far, the results have been extremely disappointing. The portion of its sales coming from online properties is much lower than that of The New York Times Company. Huffington is basically a political blog, although it has added a number of new sections. The Washington Post is the most politics-driven newspaper in the country. Huffington is probably worth $70 million or more. It is the cheap way for the Post to make up for all the ground it has lost online.
The Nick Denton Empire, Gawker Media Network, etc. is probably the most valuable blog operation in America, with a sticker in excess of $150 million. It owns Defamer, Jezebel, Gizmodo, Lifehacker, Jalopnik, and Kotaku. The most likely buyer of Gawker is Time Warner. It is a near perfect fit with celebrity-mad People Magazine and flame-throwing gossip website TMZ. The company that may need it the most is Conde Nast, especially if it buys People-clone US Magazine. Conde Nast does not have the huge web audience that AOL has to help Time Warner properties. It needs to significantly expand the online presence it has with websites related to its magazine content. Gawker would get Conde Nast there in just one move.
PopSugar, Sugar Inc. has fifteen sites about shopping, entertainment, and health. The content tends to be aimed at women from their late teens and early forties. 24/7 Wall St. estimated it is worth just over $110 million. It is probably a coin flip over who the most likely buyer would be. On the one hand, the company would be a nearly ideal match with the Conde Nast women’s magazines. On the other, NBC Universal has TV and online properties like Oxygen and iVillage which are a good match. NBCU just put money into women’s blog network BlogHer. The company that needs Sugar the most is Hearst. Hearst online properties have 18 million unique visitors a month. With Hearst’s magazine and newspaper ad revenue under tremendous pressure, it must increase its online opportunities while it still can. Dark horse buyer for Suger: Disney (DIS) for nice match with Hanna Montana.
TechCruch may already be in talks with Time Warner. AOL has a number of tech blogs which are rolled into a network called “Switched”. Many people view TechCruch as the premier blog about the world of online businesses, venture capital, and important tech developments. Time Warner remains the most likely buyer. AOL has been doing some shopping recently and paid a nifty sum for social network Beebo. The company that needs TechCrunch the most is CBS. With its recent purchase of CNET, it bought what many analysts think was a waning asset. The CBS online properties need a very visible presence at the top of their online effort. TechCrunch is as visible as it gets.
Perez Hilton came up on the 24/7 blog value list with a price tag of about $50 million. The easy call here is that this is a match with AOL’s TMZ. That makes Time Warner the most likely buyer. But, Viacom (VIA) needs it much more. The company’s flagging MTV franchise is still trying to be a force online. It has evolved from being a music video “channel” to a programming center for content like “Real World XX”. MTV has also moved heavily into the movie and celebrity scene. Perez Hilton could do a lot to enhance all of that. And, Perez and Sumner Redstone could become best friends
.
GigaOm is a pearl of a site about the worlds of technology and online media. From the standpoint of competition, it must run up against TechCrunch and the Dow Jones All Things Digital site. Because Dow Jones is building multiple brands around tech coverage including content from WSJ.com, MarketWatch, and Barron’s, News Corp might be the most logical buyer. But, The New York Times Company needs it much more. The company’s “Bits” franchise has strong coverage of the worlds of tech and innovation, but it lacks a lot of the “insider” content and scoops that the Om Malik properties have. GigaOm is worth $10 million. NYT ought to snap it up, even at a premium to that.
Drudge Report is a hard property to place. While Drudge is popular, it is still an immensely odd-ball site. The likely buyer of the site is probably the right-of-center Fox News, which itself is a part of the endless list of properties owned by the aged Australian Rupert Murdoch. Drudge and the Fox hosts could spend their days and nights baiting each other. Good theater and a nice way to bring in more visitors. Who needs it most? Gannett. Its online newspaper franchises have a huge audience, but most of the visitors are to the websites of their local newspaper properties. USA Today is Gannett’s only national online standard bearer. Drudge and Gannett would be strange bedfellows, but the country’s largest newspaper chain is bleeding and it needs to push its access to an online news audience as hard as it can
.
SeekingAlpha has almost 700,000 unique visitors a month, according to comScore. It may not be as big as The Motley Fool, but it is moving in that direction. 24/7 Wall St. estimates its value at $15 million, but it is the kind of property that could cause a bidding war. It rolls up content from hundreds of financial blogs giving it scores and scores of articles a day. The most logical buyer for the property is Yahoo! (YHOO). SeekingAlpha content already dominates the blog section on all of Yahoo! Finance’s quote pages. But, Yahoo and AOL are already the largest financial sites in the US. Who needs SA? MSN Money does. It lags its two portal peers in online unique visitors and pageviews. It has very modest blog content, particularly compared to AOL, which has a fleet of money blogs. Ballmer & Company can afford it. They want to build their online operations? Here is a chance. Dark horse: McGraw-Hill which needs something in addition to BusinessWeek Online to get big in internet financial content.
Silicon Alley Insider is worth about $6 million according to our work. The most likely buyer is The New York Times Company. Unlike TechCrunch, SAI has a distinctly NY-centric bent to its content. The property would be a good match with both the “Bits” and “DealBook” franchises that NYTimes.com has now. The three content sites would “round out” the Times coverage of the worlds of Wall St., technology, media, and the online universe. Who needs it most? The Financial Times, which has a modest print and online presence in the US and is unlikely to make inroads against WSJ.com and the business and tech sections of NYTimes.com. FT.com does not have compelling coverage of internet deals, internet companies, technology, and new media. FT.com is also way too light on content about the money game which has been built up around online business, venture activity, and the giant US tech companies
.
Douglas A. McIntyre
Canadian Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: CSIQ) has priced its follow-on secondary offering of 3,500,000 common shares at $34.00 per share.
Deutsche Bank and Piper Jaffray are the joint book-runners for the Offering. The underwriters have also been granted a 30-day option to purchase up to 525,000 common shares to cover over-allotments.
Shares are trading down 0.9% at $35.33 in pre-market trading. Its 52-week trading range is $6.50 to $51.80.
You can join our open email distribution list to hear about secondary offerings, IPO’s, spin-offs, mergers, and other special situations and financings.
Jon C. Ogg
July 17, 2008
These are not all of the analyst downgrades or negative calls affecting shares, but these are some of the calls impacting shares pre-market this Thursday morning:
Jon C. Ogg
July 17, 2008
These are not all of the upgrades and positive analyst calls affecting shares, but these are some of the calls impacting shares pre-market this Thursday morning:
Jon C. Ogg
July 17, 2008
Nokia (NOK) had a stronger second quarter than most people expected. According to The Wall Street Journal, "Nokia said sales rose to €13.15 billion from €12.59 billion. Analysts expected sales of €12.86 billion."
Just as important, Nokia’s global market share rose to 40% from 39% last year and the company shipped 122 million handsets. A great deal of the improvement came due to sales of units in India and China.
This is not exactly good news for companies like Motorola (MOT), RIM (RIMM), and Apple (AAPL). The US and EU are becoming modest to zero growth markets for handsets. Improving prospects in the areas where they market most of their products won’t be of any help this year.
Because of its existing trouble, the Nokia news is probably worst for Motorola. It has never replaced its hit product, the RAZR. The iPhone and Blackberry are taking the high end of the market. Samsung has taken a lot of the middle market.
The earnings news signals one other thing. Getting sales for the new iPhones and Blackberry products will not be a cake walk.
Douglas A. McIntyre
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