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This week has already been an interesting week in the oil patch, but for big oil stocks the expression "You ain’t seen nothin’ yet" is perhaps more appropriate than ever. On Thursday morning we’ll see earnings from Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM) and on Friday morning we’ll see earnings from Chevron Corp. (NYSE: CVX). Perhaps the biggest takes Wall Street is interested in hearing is the stances on any hedges versus how the public comes up versus how much money these companies are making off of the public at the pump. Today’s rapid rise in oil has been a help for oil stocks, but many are still closer to 52-week lows than to highs.
Monthly Archives: July 2008
Standard Oil Earnings On Deck: Exxon vs. Chevron (XOM, CVX)
Visa’s Earnings Cheer: “Charge!” (V)
Credit card clearing and processing giant Visa Inc. (NYSE: V) just posted earnings with an adjusted $0.59 EPS on $1.6 Billion in revenues. First Call had estimates pegged at $0.48 EPS on $1.55 Billion. Even if you use GAAP estimates for financials, the company posted $0.51 EPS.
Despite a weak consumer, which everyone believes Visa is immune from entirely, Visa is raising its 2008 targets. Its sees adjusted operating margin in the mid-40% range. The company is going out on a limb and calling for 2009 and 2010 to see adjusted operating margins in the mid to high 40% range.
Starbucks (SBUX) Has First Quarterly Loss In Its History
The expectations for Starbucks (SBUX) were very low. That probably has not been true since the company went public.
But, Starbucks was able to come in below a worst case, the hallmark of a number of years of management fumbles and over-expansion.
First Solar Lights The Sky (FSLR)
First Solar, Inc. (Nasdaq: FSLR) is soaring after the close. The company just announced its quarterly earnings of $0.85 EPS on $267 million in revenues. First Call has estimates pegged at $0.58 EPS on $216.9 Million in revenues. This was not supposed to be their most important quarter either.
The 52-Week Low Club 7/30/2008 (CBG)(AUO)(SIMO)(GRMN)
CB Richard Ellis Group (CBG) Big profit drop. Shares off to $13.43 from 52-week high of $38.
Au Optronics (AUO) Weak outlook for next quarter, Falls to $12.35 from 52-week high of $22.48.
Silicon Motion (SIMO) Another company with poor outlook. Sells down to $6.75 from 52-week high of $26.10.
Garmin (GRMN) Cuts outlook. Drops down to $34.51 from 52-week high of $125.58.
Douglas A. McIntyre
Motorola’s (MOT) Handset Business Is Worth Nothing
Analysts believe that Motorola (MOT) may have dropped into fourth place among the world’s handset manufacturers. Two years ago, it was a strong second with 22% of the market.
According to Reuters, "Nine analysts surveyed by Reuters estimated Motorola sold 26.6 million handsets in the quarter, behind LG’s 27.7 million, Samsung Electronics Co Ltd’s 45.7 million and Nokia’s 122 million." Motorla’s actual unit sales came in at 28.1 million for the quarter
Disney Earnings Preview: Hannah vs. Mickey (DIS)
After today’s close, we’ll get to see earnings out of the Mouse House from Walt Disney Co. (NYSE: DIS). First Call has estimates of $0.61 EPS on $9.14 Billion in revenues for this quarter. Estimates are $0.52 EPS and $9.37 Billion next quarter and are coming in at $2.32 EPS on roughly $37.7 Billion for its Fiscal September-2008. As you will see below, there are some very critical levels to watch today.
Big Retails Which May Close Or Downsize (CC)(BBI)(PIR)(CPWM)
It is now no secret that we are in a very weak economic environment and if it is not an official recession it is for about 80% of the country. We’ve already seen some retailers collapse entirely or at least fall into the restructuring chapters that protect the company from liquidation. Among these are Sharper Image, Lillian Vernon, Mervyn’s, Ames, Harvey Electronics, Good Guys, Levitz, Bombay, Movie Gallery, Tweeter, and other former modest-sized retailers which have filed to shield themselves from creditors.
There are several larger retailers that are in real trouble. Some are at risk for bankruptcy and each of them could have to cut operations so much that their revenue would be a fraction of what it is now.
Does Comcast (CMCSA) Deserve The Benefit Of The Doubt?
Comcast Corp. (NASDAQ: CMCSA) is a company that Wall Street just loves to hate. Much of the antipathy directed toward the Philadelphia-based cable giant seems justified since it faces a myriad of competitors and is vulnerable to getting hurt by the slowing economy.
AmTech Looking for CPU Space Changes (AMD, INTC, BRCM)
American Technology Research has an interesting note out this morning calling for changes in the CPU space where Advanced Micro Devices (NYSE: AMD) and Intel Corp. (NASDAQ: INTC) compete.
The call is mainly a reiteration for Intel’s rating but the note goes as far as pointing out that there is a secondary (or tertiary) role involving Broadcom (NASDAQ: BRCM).
Small Business Saves The Economy’s Bacon
There are a host of reasons why small business employment numbers should have been anemic in July. But, they weren’t. As a matter of fact, small business kept overall job growth from moving into the red.
The ADP National Employment Report showed non-farm employment rose by only 9,000 jobs. That is one of the worst showings in several years.
Karmazin Tries To Talk Up Sirius-XM on CNBC Interview (SIRI, XMSR)
Mel Karmazin of Sirius Satellite Radio Inc. (NASDAQ: SIRI) came on CNBC this morning defending the combined Sirius-XM in an exclusive with David Faber. This has shares somewhat higher by almost 4%, but Faber’s tone throughout the interview was very cautious and Mel Karmazin himself didn’t quite seem as enthusiastic as the Mel Karmazin of the past.
Fed Extends Brokerage Rescue Deal
In another move to save the finances of almost every man, woman, and child in the US, the Fed has accounced that it will extending a credit facility that it provides for primary dealers in one of several steps to boost liquidity in stressed financial markets.
According to the AP, The Fed said the program, where investment houses can tap the central bank for a quick source of cash, will now be available through Jan 30.
Douglas A. McIntyre
TOP PRE-MARKET ANALYST DOWNGRADES (ALU, EMN, FDG, GET, TAP, SEPR, SNE, WYE)
These are not all of the analyst downgrades and negative calls we are seeing this morning, but these are some of the stand out calls this Wednesday morning:
Alcatel-Lucent (ALU) Cut target at UBS.
Eastman Chemical (EMN) Cut to Hold at Citigroup.
Fording (FDG) Cut to Neutral at UBS.
Gaylord Entertainment (GET) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan.
Molson Coors (TAP) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan.
Sepracor (SEPR) Cut to Nedutral at UBS.
Sony ADR (SNE) Cut to Underweight from HSBC.
Wyeth (WYE) Cut to Sell at Citigroup.
Jon C. Ogg
July 30, 2008
TOP PRE-MARKET ANALYST UPGRADES (BWLD, CEDC, CVS, HSC, MER, MYGN, NATI, ORCC, SVVS, SCHN, WAG)
These are not all of the analyst upgrades and positive we are seeing this morning, and many upgrades look merely like "less negative" calls than anything. Here are this Wednesday’s early bird analyst calls:
Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD) Raised to Outperform at Baird.
Central European Distribution (CEDC) Started as Overweight at JPMorgan
CVS Caremark (CVS) Started as Buy at B of A.
Harsco (HSC) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan.
Merrill Lynch (MER) Raised to Neutral at HSBC.
Mryriad Genetics (MYGN) Raised to Outperform at RBC.
National Instruments (NATI) Raised to Hold at Citigroup.
Online Resources (ORCC) Cut to Market Perform at FBR.
Savvis (SVVS) Raised to Buy at Jefferies.
Schnitzer Steel (SCHN) Raised to Neutral at Goldman Sachs.
Walgreen (WAG) Started at Buy at B of A.
Jon C. Ogg
July 30, 2008
Nintendo: Wii Uber Alles (MSFT)(SNE)
It has to gall corporate leviathans Microsoft (MSFT) and Sony (SNE) that Nintendo trumps them in the video game console business. The modest Japanese company did it again in the last quarter.
The Japanese manufacturer of Super Mario and Pokemon video games reported Wednesday a 107.27 billion yen ($996 million) profit for April-June, up from 80.25 billion yen the same period the previous year.
Siemens (SI) Shows It True Colors, A Lesson For GE (GE)
Most of the executives at Siemens (SI) are being dragged off in handcuffs as part of the prosecutions in the company’s bribery scandal. But, the few managers who remain are doing a spectacular job. If they can avoid any more police raids, the conglomerate should do very well.
Detroit Bites The Hand That Feeds It (GM)(F)
Chrysler is exiting the car leasing business and GM (GM) and Ford (F) have a foot out the door. All of those SUVs that come back off lease sit on dealer lots because no one wants them. People leasing cars are also being hit by the economic downturn, so they often become deadbeats, forcing the car companies to send " the repo man" to get the vehicles back in the middle of the night. Defaults don’t do much for car finance unit earnings.
Dell (DELL) Hopes To Hunt And Kill Apple (AAPL) iPod
Dell (DELL) wants to accomplish what no other company has been able to do over the last five years. It wants to hunt down and kill the Apple (AAPL) iPod like a mangy dog.
That probably won’t work, but Dell has as good a chance as any company for getting a little piece of the music download and digital media player pie.
Whole Foods (WFMI) Buy-Out Of Wild Oats Back In Limbo
Here’s something you don’t see everyday: a recently completed merger facing more anti-trust scrutiny. But an appeals court has ruled that evidence of antitrust concerns in the Whole Foods/Wild Oats deal must reconsidered.
The New York Times reports that "in a 2-to-1 ruling, a three-member panel of the United States Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit, in Washington, sent the case back to a lower court to consider the evidence more fully."
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Today’s top tickerspy Indexes Domestic Telecom ... +2.6% Stem Cell Stocks +2.3% Pain Management S... +2.1% Ethanol and Biofu... +1.9% Savings and Loan ... +1.8% 
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