Daily Archives: October 20, 2008

Tuesday’s Earnings Represent True Economy Strengths & Weakness (MMM, AAPL, CAT, DD, LMT, NSC, YHOO)

Tuesday is going to look like it is a true earnings bogey for the entire economy with major industrials and other companies which are representative of the strength or weakness of the entire economy.  We have earnings from 3M Co. (NYSE: MMM), Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL), Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT), DuPont (NYSE: DD), Lockheed Martin Corporation (NYSE: LMT), Norfolk Southern Corp. (NYSE: NSC), and Yahoo Inc. (NASDAQ: YHOO).  There are others reporting as well, but these below are the ones we have chosen to issue preview over.  Here we have given overall pull-backs from highs, detailed expectations, changes expected from last year, guidance expectations, and other individual metrics.

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TI Guidance Lynching Itself & Peers (TXN, QCOM, BRCM, ADI)

Texas_instruments_logo_3Mobile chip giant Texas Instruments (NYSE: TXN) has posted earnings of $0.43 per share and $3.39 billion in revenue.  First Call had estimates of $0.44 on $3.40 billion in revenue.  Back on September 9 it gave guidance of $0.42 to $0.47, within the $0.41 to $0.47 offered in July; and it gave revenue guidance of $3.33 to $3.47 billion, also within the $3.26 to $3.54 billion range offered.  Unfortunately, it looks too conservative even for those already braced for bad news.

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SanDisk Earnings, The Agony of Defeat (SNDK)

Sandisk_logoFlash-memory giant SanDisk Corp. (NASDAQ: SNDK) has just posted earnings of -$0.59 and $821.5 million in revenue.  First Call had estimates at -$0.28 EPS on $778.1 million in revenues.

The company did notes that it entered into anon-binding memorandum of understanding with Toshiba to restructure the current Fab 3 and Fab 4 joint ventures to reduce cap-ex in 2009 to cut expenses and monitor its balance sheet. 

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American Express (AXP): The Faithful Are Rewarded

Cammonopoly_wideweb__430x3250Expectations for American Express’s (AXP) earnings were less than modest. Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters, on average, forecast earnings of $.59 for the quarter. Friedman, Billings, Ramsey reported that American Express reported default rates of 6.14 percent in September, the highest rate since November 2005 when bankruptcy laws changed, according to the AP.

Estimates are for revenue to come in at $7.31 billion.

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The 52-Week Low Club (CDE)(SSCC)(YRC)(BC)

Sad_clownBrunswick (BC) Moody’s downgrades to junk because of falling consumer spending and company’s financials. Drops to $3.80 from 52-week high of $22.85.

Coeur d’Alene Mines (CDE) Sells new convertible note. Metals stocks not having their best day. Falls to $.82 from 52-week high of $5.18.

Smurfit-Stone Container (SSCC) Goldman Sachs warns paper company shares may decline on week product demand. Moves off to $1.06 from 52-week high of $13.56.

YRC Worldwide (YRC) Issues new shares to pay debt. Sells down to $3.51 from 52-week high of $28.15.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Bracing for Texas Instruments Earnings (TXN)

Texas_instruments_logoAfter the close of trading, we should get earnings out of mobile chip giant Texas Instruments (NYSE: TXN).  First Call has estimates at $0.44 EPS on $3.40 billion in revenues.  As you will see, this is somewhat in-line with its last earnings guidance.

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Credit Crisis Yield: 20 Million Lost Jobs

95129cThe UN may not be particularly good at mediating international disputes but it is one hell of a statistics bureau. International Labour Organisation, part of the worldwide fellowship body, said that the global recession will put 20 million people out of work worldwide by the end of next year.

The number is tragically large and most likely will usher in a period of global suffering not caused by the economy in decades. Actually, at 20 million people, the number may not have been matched at any time in history.

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Bernanke Calls A Recession, Without The Words

Bernanke_imageBen Bernanke is set to testify on in Washington D.C. before the U.S. House Budget Committee on the economic recovery.  If you look at the prepared comments, it certainly doesn’t sound like the ecoonomy is on the road to recovery and it has all the earmarks of a recession.  We have been maintaining that we were in an unofficial recession since the end of Q1, but the FOMC and government still haven’t gotten around to their policy wording yet.

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Yahoo! (YHOO) Lay-Offs: A Trip To Nowhere

UnemplyIt may be a sign of the cruel mentality of the American stock trader, but generally news of layoffs drives the share price of the company making the cuts upward.

Word came out this morning that Circuit City (CC) might fire almost everyone who works at the troubled retailer. The stock moved up 17% to $.46 on heavy volume. A stock which is that cheap may not count toward the sample.

At the other extreme is Yahoo! (YHOO). Several media sources said it is about to make significant cuts.

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And We Thought Spam Was Recession-Proof (HRL)

Hormel_logoThere was an interesting warning on 2008 earnings this morning, although it seems almost counter-intuitive.  Hormel Foods Corp. (NYSE: HRL) is almost back at 52-week lows this morning.  The company is citing weak financial markets and rising operating costs for the lower earnings.

The maker of Spam now sees fiscal-2008 earnings of $2.03 to$2.09 per share rather than $2.22 to $2.28, and that is also well under theFist Call number of $2.25.  What is more interesting than the numbers is the breakdown of what is coming up short.

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Financial Bailouts Keep Coming, From Competitors (AIG, PRU, RBS, ING)

Broken_merger_torn_moneyThere are many new initiatives for "taking stakes" and "financing packages" this morning.  Most of these seem to be coming from actual competitors rather than from our government, although that isn’t the case in the continental European scenario.

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Vonage Secures Refinancing Package (VG)

Vonage_logoVonage Holdings Corp. (NYSE: VG) has signed a definitive agreements to refinance its convertible debt, a move which will help to secure its future.  The financing package consists of a $130.3 million senior secured first lien credit facility, a $72.0 million senior secured second lien credit facility, and the sale of $18.0 million of senior secured third lien convertible notes.

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Hasbro vs. Mattel: Earnings From The Toy Giants (HAS, MAT)

We have seen earnings this morning from toy giants Hasbro Inc. (NYSE: HAS) and Mattel Inc. (NYSE: MAT).  One is a relative winner, while one is not.

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Day Trader Alert: Syneron medical (ELOS)

Down_arrow_redSyneron Medical Ltd. (ELOS) is generally a thin volume stock, although it may see more active trading as the opening bell gets closer.  Shares are indicated lower on an earnings warning.  It sees $0.11 to $0.13 EPS and sees $29 to $30 million in revenues, while First Call estimates were $0.27 EPS and almost $35.8+ million in revenues.  The company did not offer any reasoning in its release although you might easily surmise that cosmetic laser and light treatments for skin treatments must be more economically sensitive than razors.  The company did want to convey its "value" by noting it has a cash position of $220 million with no debt, and that its shareholder equity is $255 to $256 million. Shares are indicated down about 12% at $9.96 early this morning, and that would be a new 52-week low under the $10.00 to $19.33 range over the last 52-weeks.

Jon C. Ogg
October 20, 2008

Top Pre-Market Analyst Upgrades (APC, APA, AMAT, BBY, BP, CVX, CSCO, COP, XOM, KFT, NBL, SYMC, VLO)

These are some of the top analyst pre-market upgrades we are seeing early this Monday morning:

  • Anadarko Petroleum (APC) Raised to Outperform at Oppenheimer.
  • Apache (APA) Raised to Outperform at Oppenheimer.
  • Applied Material (AMAT) Raised to Buy at Goldman Sachs.
  • Best Buy (BBY) Raised to Neutral at Goldman Sachs.
  • BP plc (BP) Raised to Outperform at Oppenheimer.
  • Chevron (CVX) Raised to Outperform at Oppenheimer.
  • Cisco Systems (CSCO) Raised to Outperform at Morgan Keegan.
  • ConocoPhillips (COP) Raised to Outperform at Oppenheimer.
  • Exxon Mobil (XOM) Raised to Outperform at Oppenheimer.
  • Kraft (KFT) Raised to Buy at UBS.
  • Noble Energy (NBL) Raised to Outperform at Oppenheimer.
  • Symantec (SYMC) Raised to Outperform at Oppenheimer.
  • Valero (VLO) Raised to Outperform at Oppenheimer.

Jon C. Ogg
October 20, 2008

Top Pre-Market Analyst Downgrades (CENT, HELE, INTC, LBY, MET, MNST, POZN, PRU)

These are some of the top analyst downgrades we are seeing early this Monday morning:

  • Central Garden & Pet (CENT) Cut to Underperform at Jefferies.
  • Helen of Troy (HELE) Cut to Hold at Jefferies.
  • Intel (INTC) Cut to Neutral at Goldman Sachs.
  • Libbey (LBY) Cut to Underperform at Jefferies.
  • MetLife (MET) Cut to Neutral at Goldman Sachs.
  • Monster Worldwide (MNST) Cut to Hold at Citigroup.
  • Pozen (POZN) Cut to Hold at Citigroup, Cut to Underperform at Jefferies.
  • Prudential Financial (PRU) Cut to Sell at Goldman Sachs.

Jon C. Ogg
October 20, 2008

Low On Cash For Chrysler Merger, GM (GM) Can Turn To Fed

Gm20jpeg20imageThere is an arcane rule in the Federal Reserve charter that allows it to provide funding to organizations outside the banking system. It is buried under dust and cob webs somewhere in the basement of the banking agency’s headquarters, but the sleuths from GM (GM) have found it.

Word hit the street today that the largest US car company does not have the capital to complete a merger with Chrysler. Apparently the smaller company is close to broke as well, or at least too close for comfort.

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Bank Accounting: Moving The Goal Posts

R218533_855025How often do companies get to defy the rules of GAAP? The answer is almost never. Accountants defend it like they would the Holy Grail, if they could find it. GAAP is, to a large extent, an abstract set of rules meant to be applied by CPAs as medical potions are by MDs. But, it is rare that the code is suspended altogether.

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As Display Advertising Spreads, Problem Goes Beyond Yahoo! (YHOO)

Yahoo_logoAlmost every man, woman, and child in America knows that Yahoo! (YHOO) is going to have to cut costs. There has been evidence for sometime that internet display advertising, which has been growing at a remarkable rate for over five years, has begin to slow significantly. A deep recession may even move its annual increase to the single digits next year.

Yahoo!’s house is build on the premise that display advertisng will continue to do well. That foundation is no longer an assurance of success.

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Circuit City (CC): A Chapter 11 Or Just Massive Cuts?

CircuitcityThe Wall Street Journal reports that Circuit City (CC) is finally addressing just how desperate its situation is. The company is reportedly considering a plan to close 150 stores and slash jobs in an effort to save the company. But the company has also hired bankruptcy attorneys Skadden, Arps, Slate, Meagher & Flom LLP and other consultants as it mulls a possible bankruptcy filing and plans for the possibility of debtor in possession financing

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