Daily Archives: October 27, 2008

With Sirius Up 30%, Can Chatter Be True? (SIRI)

Sirius_logoSirius XM Radio (NASDAQ: SIRI) did something rather unusual if you consider its recent downward trend.  Its shares rallied close to 30% today.  Sure, you have to consider how low shares had gotten and take into consideration how little this means in raw dollar gains.  But you also have to consider the meat here and why this would happen.

Last week we discussed how lucky the company is that NASDAQ has pulled its $1.00 ejection button from the listing requirements.  Everyone, and that includes us, has commented how the company is drowning in debt.  But its debt financing that looked so high when it was made actually looks pretty cheap considering the levels we have seen investment grade and "AAA-rated" issuers have accepted in recent weeks.

Read More »

The 52-Week Low Club (CCC)(MTL)(ARM)(TSN)(SVNT)

Sad_clown_2Calgon Carbon (CCC) Outstanding notes convert to common shares. Drives stock to $10.54 from 52-week high of $23.03.

Mechel (MTL) Russian coal miner may issue up to 138.8 million preferred shares. Dives to $3.77 from 52-week high of $58.66.

Arvinmeritor (ARM) JPMorgan cuts rating for auto suppliers. Falls to $4.54 from 52-week high of $18.11.

Tyson Foods (TSN) Stephens research analyst lowers earnings forecast. Drops to $8.14 from 52-week high of $19.50.

Savient Pharmaceuticals (SVNT) Plummets on safety concerns about one if its treatments and analyst downgrade. Sells off to $2.80 from 52-week high of $28.42.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Savient: Jim Cramer’s Old Favorite Biotech Implodes (SVNT)

Savient_logoSavient Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: SVNT) is feeling the wrath of the trading gods today.  Shares are down some 74% at $2.95 in close to 10-times normal trading volume.  The culprit for today’s biotech implosion is the safety profile of its key gout drug candidate Puricase in additional Phase III study data.  Interestingly enough, the drug does appear to work.  One reason this has so many followers is because Jim Cramer called this one his #1 Speculative Stock last year.  With so few new gout treatment alternatives, this news and this stock is worth a look.

Read More »

A Final Peek At Valero Earnings (VLO)

Oil_refinery_imageValero Energy Corp. (NYSE: VLO) is set to report earnings Tuesday morning.  First Call has estimates pegged at $1.46 per share and $36.43 billion in revenue.  Oil companies and refiners rarely give guidance. Valero is expected to post earnings for the coming quarter of $0.97 and $26.14 billion in revenues.  Be advised that the earnings range is rather wide and the revenue range is only a sample from a handful of analysts.

There is one key issue here with the earnings expectations.  These estimates are all over the place as theprice of oil has tanked and as analysts have a hard time decidingwhether lower oil prices are good for refiners or if costs may stay higher than the sell-through prices.

Read More »

Can Under Armour Outrun The Recession? (UA)

Under_armour_logoUnder Armour, Inc. (NYSE: UA) is set to report earnings on Tuesday around 7:00 AM EST.  The sporting apparel operation is expected to post earnings of $0.50 per share on $227.4 million in revenue.  For the current quarter, the company is expected to post $0.58 EPS on $226.8 million in revenue.

Read More »

Does The National Association Of Realtors Own Washington?

HouseCongress is working overtime to try to pump oxygen into the deflated real estate market, and I’ve been wondering why for quite some time. If real estate prices fall, a first-time home buyer can get a great deal on a home. Declining property values are a zero-sum game: bad news for some people but a source of great opportunity for others. Every foreclosure ends with a new homeowner: it’s not like distressed properties are being burnt to the ground.

Read More »

Dillard’s Under Activist Fire As Management Buys Shares (DDS)

Anyone who bought Dillard’s Inc. (NYSE: DDS) shares late Friday looking for a bounce caught a break.  The stock is rallying sharply after management bought shares of stock in the open market and two hedge funds said they are going after management as activists.

Read More »

Ups and Downs in the Coal Mines (ACI, FCL, BTU)

Coal_imageArch Coal (NYSE:ACI) reported solid earnings for the third quarter today, but its share price has fallen more than 4% since the market opened this morning. Arch reported EPS of $0.68, compared with $0.19 in the year-ago quarter. Revenue totaled $769.46 million, up from $599.15 million a year ago. Analysts expected EPS of $0.59 and revenues of $764.09 million, so Arch exceeded in both categories.

Read More »

Thoratec’s Hammering (THOR)

Thoratec_logoThoratec Corporation (NASDAQ: THOR) is having a rough morning.  The heart failure device company has a product recall it announced last Friday, and medical device recalls are not what the public likes to hear about.

Read More »

Monday’s Key Technology Analyst Upgrades (ARBA, JNPR, NFLX, RVBD, SNDK, NT)

Some of the analyst upgrades in technology are just a reversal of an extreme negative bias to a cautious or neutral tone, but as you will see below there are a few standout calls.  There is also one call which an analyst should be ashamed of….  here are the tech research calls:

Read More »

How Does CH Energy Count Its Money? (CHG)

Will the last one out the door please turn out the lights? Apparently all of CH Energy Group’s (NYSE:CHG) employees are following that advice. The company reported EPS of $0.18 for the third quarter this morning, down a third from the same period last year. The company’s president and CEO, Steven Lant, said the downturn was the "continuation of recent trends."

Read More »

Boardwalk Pipeline Partners Scores (BWP, L)

Oil_gas_pipeline_picBoardwalk Pipeline Partners (NYSE:BWP) today announced 2008 third quarter net income of $73.6 million, up 84% from the third quarter of 2007. Nearly 40% of that increase was attributed to increased gas sales and mark-to-market gains on the company’s expansion projects.

Read More »

Huntsman & Hexion, One Step Closer to Merger Closing (HUN)

Huntsman_logoIf you have followed the old broken and then re-engaged private equity buyout of Huntsman Corporation (NYSE: HUN), then you might feel like you witnessed a "private equity meets the credit crunch and the recession" tennis match.  This morning, Hexion announced that it has secured additional funding commitments to support this merger.  Certain Huntsman holders agreed to make an additional cash commitment to Huntsman of $217 million.

Read More »

Second Line Banks Line Up For TARP Bailout Money (FITB, HBAN, KEY, NTRS, WFSL)

Broken_merger_torn_moneyThis is one of the first rounds of the regional banks formally getting in line and formally receiving approval to participate in the $700 billion government TARP bailout package.  Prior to this it had been the major banks and brokers which had been given clearance.  Many of the healthy banks seem to be cautious to participate, but they also fear missing the boat in case things get far worse for them and they didn’t get in on the take. 

Read More »

Verizon (VZ) Has A Good Time

Cammonopoly_wideweb__430x3250Verizon (VZ) is doing just fine, recession or no. Its earning moved up 31% in Q3. Whether it can keep that up is a matter of opinion but at least the phone company can make a good case.

Verizon’s strength was wireless, which should not surprise people. The average citizen is getting rid of his phone and use VoIP or his cell. The firm hit 70.8 million total customers up 11.3 percent.

Read More »

Top 10 Pre-Market Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades (RE, FIG, PRE, SGEN, TROW, AUY, NT, RICK, RDS.A, X)

These are ten of the top analyst upgrades and downgrades we have seen this Monday morning with about 2 hours to the the open:

  • Everest Re (RE) to Outperform at Wachovia.
  • Fortress Investment (FIG) Raised to Hold from Sell at Citigroup.
  • PartnerRe (PRE) Raised to Outperform at Wachovia.
  • Seattle Genetics (SGEN) Raised to Outperform at Oppenheimer.
  • T. Rowe Price (TROW) Raised to Outperform at KBW; raised to Outperform at Wachovia.
  • Yamana Gold (AUY) Raised to Outperform at CIBC.
  • Nortel (NT) Cut to Neutral at UBS.
  • Rick’s Cabaret (RICK) Cut to Neutral at Merriman Curhan Ford.
  • Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A) Cut to Underperform at Credit Suisse.
  • US Steel (X) Cut to Sell at UBS.

Jon C. Ogg
October 27, 2008

Where Do Investors Find Safely? (XOM)(MSFT)(WMT)(PG)

95129cSome investors have been so rattled by this market that they have taken their money and run. Even Treasuries are not safe enough. What if the US government defaults?

Of course, Treasuries are a safe investment which is why their prices are going up. A lot of investors are also putting money into corporate bonds, particularly those issued by rock solid firms such as IBM (IBM).

The intrepid are going to keep some money in equities, so the question becomes "where do they go"?

Read More »

Knocking Down HP (HPQ) And Dell (DELL): The Netbook Goes Wild (AAPL)(RIMM)

PcThe "netbook: seemed like a remarkably stupid idea. It sits somewhere between small laptops and smartphones. It is not much good for anything beyond e-mail and web access. It looks like a cheap toy.

The devices should have done poorly. Laptops are getting smaller and more powerful. They are also getting less expensive. The have better battery life. WiFi and 3G access makes them more useful as portable devices.

Read More »

Citigroup (C) Won’t Make It

DataCitigroup (C) is not going to make it, at least not an an independent company. The FT has reported that the head of Goldman Sachs (GS) called Citigroup CEO Vikram Pandit to discuss a merger. Goldman had converted itself into a commercial bank. Maybe it was worried it would go the way of Morgan Stanley (MS). But, the Treasury has come up with capital for all the big financial firms, so the urge to do something has probably passed for the world’s premier investment bank.

It is different for Citigroup. There things have gone from bad to worse.

Read More »

Media Digest 10/27/2008 Reuters, WSJ, NYTimes, FT, Bloomberg

NewspaperAccording to Reuters, the Korean central bank made record rate cuts.

Reuters reports that the G7 said the rising yen may be a threat to financial markets.

Reuters writes that Hungary and the IMF agreed to an assistance plan.

Reuters reports that Japan will take crisis actions as shares in its banks suffered sharp drops.

Read More »