Daily Archives: October 28, 2008

Can Exxon Mobil Earnings Continue Recent Strength? (XOM)

Exxon_logoIf you look through today’s earnings winners, many of them are oil-related stocks.  Today, Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM) said it would announce its earnings on Thursday.  It will also have a conference call at 11:00 AM EST.  There are still two mornings for estimates to change, but First Call is looking for earnings of $2.39 per share.

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Stocks Which Doubled Market Performance (ATI, CMCSA, COH, FMCN, HPC, IPG, MICC, NEM, SNI, TIE, VMED)

Money_stack_picAs you will see today’s gains of 10% and more on both the DJIA and the S&P 500 Index, we wanted to explore which stocks greatly outperformed the markets today.  We’d note that it is rather odd to see that technology stocks measured by the NASDAQ were actually lagging the overall market today.

DJIA              9,065.12 (+889.35; +10.88%)
S&P500        940.51 (+91.59; +10.79%)
NASDAQ       1,649.47 (+143.57; +9.53%)

Below is a list of the stocks which outperformed by roughly double over the major index gains of the DJIA, S&P 500, and NASDAQ 100.  These stocks posted gains of 20% or more on the day, and we’d note that this list would actually be much larger if we included the financial stocks and REIT Stocks which we backed out for obvious reasons:

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The 52-Week Low Club (PDGI)(PRXL)(LVS)(USG)(MF)(CVG)

Sad_clownConvergys (CVG) Posts a loss and weak forecast. Drops to $6.82 from 52-week high of $19.18.

MF Global (MF) No major news. Drops to $1.93 from 52-week high of $32.20.

USG Corporation (USG) May have violated lending agreement. Falls to $14.23 from 52-week high of $40.25.

Las Vegas Sands (LVS) Casino stocks out of vogue. Sells down to $4.32 from 52-week high of $148.76.

PAREXEL International (PRXL) Revenue shortfall. Plummets to $6.84 from 52-week high of $36.16.

Pharmanet (PDGI) No news. Sells off to $1 from 52-week high of $43.02.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Durability Sinks Whirlpool (WHR)

95129cWhirlpool (WHR) does not have a company mascot like the Maytag Repairman. His marketing pitch is that Maytag products never need to be fixed. He is a man without work, which makes Maytag products without equal.

Whirlpool had some of the durability dust rub off on it, and that may have hurt earnings. The company reported modest operating income of $122 million in the third quarter compared with $196 million last year.

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Ackman’s Target Efforts Could Save Sears & Lampert (TGT, SHLD)

Sears_logoTarget_logoTarget Corporation (NYSE:TGT) has confirmed that activist Bill Ackman’s Pershing Square has shared various ideas for an alternative ownership structure related to Target real estate.  It also said that this has been going on since May.  The company has been evaluating these ideas with the assistance of outside advisors, including Goldman Sachs Group (NYSE: GS).  What is interesting today is that this could act as an inadvertent jumpstart for Eddie Lampert and Sears Holdings (NASDAQ: SHLD) after a long and painful ride south.

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ATP: Buybacks, Sales & The Future (ATPG, APC)

Oil_rig_offshore_atpg_imageATP Oil & Gas (NASDAQ:ATPG) is a small-cap E&P company that is desperately trying to improveits share price. It is trading today about 85% lower than its 52-week high.That stinks and the company knows it.  This morning, the company announced a plan to buy back 3.5 million shares, or about 10% of shares outstanding, and it is taking on more shareholder-friendly initiatives.

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Cliffs Winning Strategy: Shutter Mines (CLF, ANR)

Cliffs_logoNewly-named Cliffs Natural Resources Inc. (NYSE:CLF) is slowing production at two of its Minnesota iron ore mines in order "to bring production in line with demand." Three furnaces capable of producing 300,000 tons of pellets a month will be shut down. That’s an annualized reduction of nearly 30% at the two locations and about 16% of total North American annual production.

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Low Oil Prices, Yet High Oil Profits (OXY, BP, VLO, COP)

Oil_refinery_image_2Oil_well_logo_2_2This has been a very sketchy earnings season, and the crazy stock markets have offered very little help in being able to evaluate many companies.  But despite the massive drop in oil prices from over $140 per barrel down to almost $60 per barrel, we are seeing some rather impressive earnings from companies in the oil patch.  With the huge sell-offs seen in most major oil companies, refiners, and service providers may start to offer some stability where investors have seen nothing but volatility and instability. 

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High Volume Stock Tankers (GS, MS, DWT, CRDN, ACF, PRXL)

Down_arrow_redWe are seeing many high volume price drops in actively traded shares today.  In most cases, the earnings are to blame, but there are other issues affecting some stocks as well.  Goldman Sachs Group (NYSE: GS), Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), Britannia Bulk Holdings Inc. (NYSE: DWT), AmeriCredit (NYSE: ACF), Ceradyne Inc. (NASDAQ: CRDN), and Paraxel International Corp. (NASDAQ: PRXL) are all being hit on strong trading volume.  Below are links for a full synopsis on each.

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OPEC Ready To Cut Production ASAP

Tx00338coilwellgusherodessatexasposOPEC is not an organization that likes to leave money on the table. And, it has done so for far too long, at least according to a number of its members.

Recently, banks in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait had to be bailed out by their governments. Iran claims it cannot balance it budget unless crude is at $90 a barrel.

When OPEC cut production by over a million barrels a day last week, crude prices actually fell, a humiliating experience for countries in the cartel who are used to moving oil prices.

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Fahrenheit 451 & The Internet (GOOG, MHP, PSO, JW-A, CBS)

Stack_of_books_picWe are seeing a historic event, and one which may outline the future of books.  Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) has reached a settlement over its dispute with The Authors Guild and the Association of American Publishers.  This will expand online access to millions of copyrighted books and other written materials in the U.S. from the collections of a number of major U.S. libraries participating in Google Book Search.

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Consumers, Hell, and No Handbasket

BurningmoneyThe Conference Board has released a dismal reading of Consumer Confidence. In fact, this looks like a record low.  Consumer confidence in October was given an index reading of 38.0.  Economists were looking for a reading of more than 51.0, but the estimates varied.  But 38.0 was far worse than any were calling for, by a long shot.

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Huntman & Hexion Vs. Bankers, Trouble Merger-Land? (HUN)

Huntsman_logoHuntsman Corporation (NYSE: HUN) is now indicated down after a rise yesterday.  Apparently, Deutsche Bank and Credit Suisse have said they do not want to fund the Apollo-led merger with the Hexion merger financing.

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TEPPCO Piping Earnings (TPP)

Oil_gas_pipeline_picTEPPCO Partners (NYSE:TPP), a pipeline master limited partnership, reported third quarter earnings of $0.40/common unit on revenues of $4.2 billion. Analysts were expecting $0.43/common unit and revenues of $3.36 billion. Net income totaled $47 million, down slightly from third quarter 2007 income of $47.6 million. The company estimated that Hurricanes Gustav and Ike reduced EBITDA by about $3.7 million. For the first nine months of the year, TEPPCO’s net income is off $74.7 million from a year ago.

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Smith International, Good Enough (SII)

Oil_well_logo_2Oil field services company Smith International (NYSE:SII) reported third quarter earnings before the market opened this morning. EPS reached $1.00 on revenues of $2.85 billion. Analysts were expecting EPS of $0.97 and revenues of $2.71 billion. A pro forma calculation accounting for the acquisition of W-H Energy Services, which was completed in late August, increased revenues to $3.07 billion.

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Martha Comes Up Short (MSO)

Martha_stewart_imageMartha Stewart Living Omnimedia, Inc. (NYSE: MSO) posted a net loss at -$0.07 EPS and said that excluding certain restructuring corporate expenses it would have seen a loss of -$0.01 EPS.  First Call was looking for a break-even quarter.  Unfortunately, the media company is guiding down revenues for Q4 and for fiscal 2008. 

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Valero Set To Win In New Pricing Environment (VLO)

Oil_refinery_imageValero Energy Corp. (NYSE: VLO) looks set to surge after the refinery giant posted earnings.  The company posted $1.86 EPS from continuing operations, which may have some questionable numbers because some other operations from the Krotz Springs refinery have not been presented as discontinued operations.  But on a net basis, the company posted $2.18 EPS. First Call estimates were only $1.54 EPS. 

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Early Bird Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades (CHA, CHH, CMCSA, GOOG, ID, PAS, ACF, ERIC, NCC, NWS, NOK, PCTI, RAH, SHW)

These are some of the top pre-market analyst upgrades and downgrades we are seeing from Wall Street firms this Tuesday morning with more than two hours to the open:

  • China Telecom (CHA) Raised to Buy at UBS.
  • Choice Hotels (CHH) Raised To Neutral From Underweight at JPMorgan.
  • Comcast (CMCSA) Started as Outperform at Credit Suisse.
  • Google (GOOG) Started as Outperform at Credit Suisse.
  • L-1 Identity Solutions (ID) Raised to Neutral from Underweight at JPMorgan.
  • PepsiAmericas (PAS) Raised to Buy at UBS.

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VW: Largest Market Cap In The World (TM)(F)(GM)(XOM)

Batmobile512In a sign that the car industry is alive and well, the market cap of VW passed Exxon (XOM) to move it into first place worldwide.

According to Bloomberg, the stock rose when "Porsche SE announced plans to raise its stake in the German carmaker to 75 percent, triggering demand from short-sellers."

Now VW can buy Toyota (TM) and have equity left over to pick up Ford (F) and GM (GM) to boot.

Douglas A. McIntyre

UBS Ditches Solar Stocks (ENER, ESLR, SOLR, SPWRA)

Solar_panel_picUBS is issuing a downgrade on many of the solar stocks this morning.  While this call may be late, it does echo some of the issues brought up recently which signals that some of the solar orders could get cut ahead from utilities now that energy is suddenly cheaper and is deemed to stay cheaper for the time being.

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