Daily Archives: November 3, 2008

Sirius (SIRI): With Half Of Subscriptions From Car Companies, Satellite Radio Heads To Oblivion

95129c_3Approximately half of the subscribers to Sirius (SIRI) satellite radio originally came though new car sales. That channel accounted for about 80% of sales last quarter. With US car sales down 30% last month, Sirius shareholders have another reason to worry about whether the company will survived.

Operating losses and crushing debt already threaten the firm’s future.

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New Yahoo! (YHOO) Deal With Google (GOOG): Saving Face, Little Value

Yahoo_logoOnce it became clear that The Department of Justice would take dim view of Google (GOOG) selling search advertising for Yahoo! (YHOO) under a 10-year partnership, it looked as though the proposed deal would just fall apart.

Yahoo! would have significantly benefited from the arrangement. Google’s search mechanism works better than Yahoo!’s and yields higher ad revenue. But, with Google holding 65% of the US search market and Yahoo! holding 20%, it looked like an antitrust problem from the start. Advertisers assumed that the marriage would cause rates to rise, and they were almost certainly right.

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Coldwater Creek Up You Know Which Creek (CWTR)

Coldwater_creek_logoColdwater Creek Inc. (NASDAQ: CWTR) has issued an earnings warning after the close of trading.  Its preliminary third quarter results show sales of approximately $225 million.  But that is only the start of it.  On a same store sales basis, this represents a decline expected to be in the "low-twenties" on a percentage basis.

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The 52-Week Low Club (MCK)(VSE)(ATRC)(CLZR)

Sad_clownMcKesson (MCK) Sales slowdown and downgrade. Drops to $35.81 from 52-week high of $68.43.

Verasun Energy (VSE) Chapter 11. Sells down to $.20 from 52-week high of $17.75.

Atricure (ATRC) Department of Justice probe. Roth Capital downgrade. The daily double. Drops to $3 from 52-week high of $14.38.

Candela (CLZR) Looking at strategic alternatives and posted poor earnings.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Foreign & US Autos, A Nursing Home Beauty Contest (GM, F, TM, HMC)

Hummer_crashIt was no secret that US auto sales were going to be down the drain.  Frankly, it is hard to find many who really expect any sudden recovery.  The election on Tuesday and lower gas prices are not believed to have any material impact in the sector either.  It is almost starting to look like a beauty contest for nursing home residents.  There is just no way to make these companies look pretty.

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GM’s (GM) Stock: Now Just A Junk Bond

GM’s (GM) stock can no longer be viewed as equity in the sense that it would be at most companies. It does trade on the NYSE, at an average volume of 28 million shares a day. But, at less than $6 a share, the value of the transactions from market open to market close are tiny.

GM shares now trade at a remarkably low 2% of annual revenue.

As the largest car company in the US reported at 45% drop in sales for October, GM’s stock barely moved at all which would seem to be puzzling.

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Insight In Most Active Options (PG, HUN, GE)

We have evaluated several options trades today which struck us as rather unusual and may be indicative of speculative bets.  We have put links through to each full story over at VSInvestor.com where we identify selected volume spike equity trading as well as unusual options trading.   Here is today’s list of unusual options trading:

Procter & Gamble Co. (NYSE: PG) massive trading recently looks like synthetic short selling.

Traders appear to be betting on a settlement in the Apollo-led Hexcion buyout of Huntsman Corp. (NYSE: HUN).

General Electric Co. (NYSE: GE) appears to be seeing speculative buying in call option.

Jon C. Ogg
November 3, 2008

Will Gears of War 2 Challenge Halo 3 Records? (MSFT, GME)

Gears_of_war_2_logoThere is another blockbuster gaming event this week on November 7: the release of "Gears of War 2 " The game published by Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) Game Studio’s unit and developed by Epic Games Inc. comes on the heels of the original "Gears of War" which sold more than 5 million copies. 

While the figures are going to be hard to compare, this looks like ithas a shot at being one of the top video game releases of this year.

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Store Closings Aside: Circuit City (CC) Can’t Make It To 2009

CircuitcityToday’s financial news headlines and stories are about how Circuit City (CC) is closing 155 stores in the hope of staying in business.

The real story is in the fine print. Based on the current retail environment CC is unlikely to make it to 2009 without filing Chapter 11. The company’s shares may be up 57% today, but they still only trade at $.40.

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Today’s Most Remarkable Moment On Financial TV Today: CNBC And Ryanair

R218533_855025_2CNBC interviewed remarkably pompous Michael O’Leary, CEO of European discount airline Ryanair.

O’Leary described why a recession is great for the economy. He called other airlines "rubbish" and explains how he is ruining British Airways. Odds are that BA will be in business longer than he will.

A look at the interview.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Shareholders Fighting SIRIUS XM To The Core (SIRI)

Sirius_logoIf you are one of the hundreds of thousands of investors following penny stocks and low-priced stocks such as SIRIUS XM Radio Inc. (NASDAQ: SIRI), then you will not be surprised to learn that more than 500 shareholders are going after SIRIUS XM’s management.

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Have Cisco Earnings Expectations Come Down Enough? (CSCO)

Cisco_logoCisco Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ: CSCO) is set to report earnings after the close of trading on Wednesday.  While many technology, telecom, and networking companies have grown more cautious, it is almost impossible not to notice that the earnings estimates for the networking behemoth have only come down marginally.

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Most Overpaid CEO Of The Day: Sachi Gerlitz Of Ness Technologies (NSTC)

95129c_2Sachi Gerlitz, the CEO of Ness Techologies (NSTC), is remarkably well paid for doing a less than modest job of getting shareholders results.

According to the NSTC proxy he made $903,000 last year in total compensation.

Today, Ness missed its numbers, coming in below estimates for both revenue and EPS. That drove the stock down 20% to $5.64, a 52-week low against its period high of $13.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Worst Corporate Press Release Of The Day: Dana (DAN)

Windmill_2_lg

"Dana Holdings Corporation Sharpens Focus On Leadership Roles"

"Dana Holding Corporation (DAN )today announced that its Board of Directors has appointed John Devine to the expanded role of chairman and CEO, and named Gary Convis vice chairman."

"Convis, who has served as CEO since April, retains executive oversight of the manufacturing-oriented programs he has rolled out across Dana’s global operations."

In other words, Convis got demoted, but Dana does not want to come right out and say it.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Sierra Pacific: More Might Be Less (SRP)

Back in September, Sierra Pacific Resources (NYSE:SRP) changed the names of both its utility companies to NV Energy. That didn’t do much to help its third-quarter earnings, which the company reported before the market opened this morning. Sierra reported EPS of $0.64 and revenue of $1.19 billion, compared with analysts’ estimates of $0.63 EPS and revenues of $1.27 billion.

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Nicor: Shares Could Head South Today (GAS)

Nicor_logoThis is a story about that rare thing these days: a company with a stock price higher today than it was a year ago. Unfortunately, that may change following today’s release of third quarter earnings from Nicor (NYSE:GAS).

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Early Bird Analyst Upgrades (ACOR, BIIB, BKC, CHRT, OSG, SLB, TSO, WMT)

These are some of the top pre-market upgrades from analysts which we have seen in the early hours this Monday morning:

  • Acorda Therapeutics (ACOR) Raised to Outperform at Baird.
  • Biogen Idec (BIIB) Raised to Outperform at Baird and Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank.
  • Burger King (BKC) Raised to Outperform at Wachovia.
  • Chartered Semiconductor (CHRT) Raised to Neutral from Sell at Goldman Sachs.
  • Overseas Shipholding (OSG) Raised to Outperform at Oppenheimer.
  • Schlumberger (SLB) Raised to Buy at Goldman Sachs.
  • Tesoro (TSO) Raised to Neutral at JPMorgan.
  • Wal-Mart Stores (WMT) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan.

Jon C. Ogg
November 3, 2008

Early Bird Analyst Downgrades (B, CCL, CTCM, DO, ESS, HAL, HMY, IP, ODFL, PKG)

These are some of the top pre-market analyst downgrades we have seen with more than two hours to the open this Monday morning:

  • Barnes Group (B) Cut to Neutral at Baird.
  • Carnival (CCL) Cut to Sell at S&P.
  • CTC Media (CTCM) Cut to Neutral at Goldman Sachs.
  • Diamond Offshore (DO) Cut to Neutral at Goldman Sachs.
  • Essex Property Trust (ESS) Cut to Sell at Goldman Sachs.
  • Halliburton (HAL) Cut to Neutral at Goldman Sachs.
  • Harmony Gold (HMY) Cut to Underperform at RBC.
  • International Paper (IP) Cut to Neutral at Goldman Sachs.
  • Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL) Cut to Neutral at Baird.
  • Packaging Corp. (PKG) Cut to Neutral at Goldman Sachs.

Jon C. Ogg
November 3, 2008

China’s Dream Machine Loses It Mojo

China_2The final shoe to fall in the global recession is China. It is a large enough supplier of goods to the entire civilized world and much of the world which is not civilized that it might dodge a recession. How could the entire globe hit a slowdown all at once and hit China in the head?

China was supposed to be the one financial shinning light on the Earth with its 10% GDP growth and relatively modest inflation, at least for a large economy expanding at a tremendous rate.

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Commodities, Stagflation, And Recession

AngrybearIf memory serves, commodities prices were too expensive at mid-year. Corn was too high for ethanol companies to make money. One of the largest, Verasun (VSE), just went bankrupt. Oil prices were so high that people could not drive and would not buy new or used cars.

The agricultural products used to make most food jumped up so much that the normal consumer could not get a loaf of bread for under $50.

Apparently, all of that has changed.

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