Daily Archives: November 17, 2008

An Appeal To Reason

by John Tamny, RealClearMarkets

Nigel Lawson, chancellor of the Exchequer under Margaret Thatcher, and author of three books–including his essential account of the Thatcher years, The View from No. 11: Memoirs of a Tory Radical–had trouble finding a publisher for his most recent book, An Appeal to Reason, which casts a skeptical eye on global warming.

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Will Grey Wolf and Precision Drilling Finally Tie the Knot? (GW, PDS, BAS)

Oil_well_logo_2The buyout of US driller Grey Wolf (NYSE:GW) by Canadian drilling company Precision Drilling Trust (NYSE:PDS) got its start back in April, when oilfield services company Basic Energy Services (NYSE:BAS) made an offer to buy Grey Wolf. While Grey Wolf shareholders were considering that offer, Precision Drilling made an unsolicited bid for Grey Wolf that eventually topped out at $10/share.

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24/7 Day Trading Alerts (BIDU)(DELL)(APWR)(UTHR)

Cammonopoly_wideweb__430x3250China search engine company Baidu (BIDU) is trading down on heavy volume, perhaps due to competition with Google (GOOG).  Details….

A-Power Energy Generation Systems (APWR) diving. Details…

United Therapeutics (UTHR) hammered due to disappointing results for one of its treatments. Details…

Dell (DELL) falls on analyst downgrade.  Details…

Douglas A. McIntyre

Big Time Economists Whistle Past The Graveyard

R218533_855025The latest poll from The National Association of Business Economists is remarkable in both its optimism and its lack of any grasp of the serious problems the economy faces.

According to Reuters, the group predicted "that real gross domestic product was expected to fall 2.6 percent in the fourth quarter and slump 1.3 percent in the first three months of 2009." In other words, the this quarter of next year will be the low point for the economy.

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Top Pre-Market Analyst Downgrades (ANF, ATVI, AA, CB, DELL, ERTS, FCX, MTL, STP)

These are the top research downgrades and negative analyst calls we are seeing this Monday morning with more than two hours to the open:

  • Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) Cut to Market Perform at FBR.
  • Activision Blizzard (ATVI) Cut to Neutral at Merrill Lynch.
  • Alcoa (AA) Cut to Neutral at UBS.
  • Chubb (CB) Cut to Equal Weight at Barclays.
  • Dell (DELL) Cut to Neutral at Merrill Lynch.
  • Electronic Arts (ERTS) Cut to Neutral at Merrill Lynch.
  • Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan.
  • Mechel Steel (MTL) Cut to Sell at Citigroup.
  • Suntech Power (STP) Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan.

Jon C. Ogg
November 17, 2008

A Sucking Sound At The IMF

95129cThe IMF will need more money. That should come as no surprise given the number of countries likely to come to it for bailout cash.

According to Reuters, "International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn told the BBC his organization was likely to need at least $100 billion in extra funding over the next six months to help countries out of the mire."

Where does that money come from?

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Will Citigroup (C) Be Sold To JP Morgan (JPM) Or Taken Over Like AIG (AIG)?

DataIf the press is right, Citigroup (C) is about to hold a big pep rally with its CEO Vikram Pandit raising the cheer followed by an announcement that it will fire another 35,000 people. Morale will never be better.

But, the markets are wise, and they are saying that there is a very reasonable chance Citi may not survive as an independent entity. It is no secret that the bank’s shares, which are trading below $10, are off much more over the last year than those of the other large US money center banks

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GE (GE) To Buy Assets To Add To Those It Can’t Run Now?

Ge_largeThe business principle of spreading risk makes sense unless it is only risk which is being spread with no hope for reward. GE (GE) has not made much of a case for being a conglomerate. Over the last year, its stock is down from nearly $39 to about $16. That puts it off about 58% compared to 33% for the DJIA.

Much of the concern about GE stems from its exposure to credit problems due to the assets in its financial arm. But, that is only a piece of the problems at the firm. Its industrial, media, and entertainment assets have posted only modest returns in the two years. GE’s huge infrastructure unit has carried the earnings load. That may be why so many investors and analysts want the company broken up.

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Auctioning Detroit To The Japanese And Germans (TM)(GM)(F)(HMC)

Ford1When it comes to the trouble with the US car industry and a potential government bailout, the first and most important consideration is that no one is at fault. The dog ate everyone’s homework.

Yesterday, GM (GM) chief Richard Wagoner said the a collapse of his industry would ruin the US economy. He did not say that his company had any hand in the matter. Wagoner’s comments were a foretelling, not a confession.

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Media Digest 11/17/2008 Reuters, WSJ, New York Times, FT, Bloomberg.

NewspaperAccording to Reuters, Japan has fallen into a recession.

Reuters writes that the top seven executives at Goldman Sachs (GS) will take no bonuses.

Reuters reports that a poll showed that many American believe that the government should not bail out the car companies.

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Asia Market and Europe Open 11/17/2008

BritMarkets in Asia were mixed.

The Nikkei rose .7% to 8,523.

The Hang Seng fell .2% to 13,510.

The Shanghai Composite was up 2.2% to 2,020.

The FTSE opened down .7% to 4,024. The Dax was off .4% to 4,693. The CAC 40 fell .6% to 3,270.

Data from Reuters.

Douglas A.McIntyre