Daily Archives: December 12, 2008

The 52-Week Low Club (XL)(PJI)(UNP)(PLCM)

Sad_clownXl Cap (XL) Credit Suisse cuts price target. Shares drop to $2.65 from 52-week high of $54.

PerkinElmer (PKI) Concerns about declining tech spending. Falls to $13.10 from 52-week high of $29.95.

Union Pacific (UNP) Railroad shipments are slowing. Sells down to $41.48 from 52-week high of $85.80.

Polycom (PLCM) Financial analyst presentation must have gone poorly. Dips to $14.03 from 52-week high of $28.94.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Boyd Gaming Files To Raise Cash (BYD)

Money_stack_pic_2Boyd Gaming Corporation (NYSE: BYD) has filed with the SEC to raise up to $750 million in cash via securities sales.  The company can sell any combination of common stock, preferred Stock, Debt Securities, Warrants, and Units once this is approved.

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Ominous Solar News: Job Cuts (SOLR)

Solar_panel_picIt was not that long ago when traders and investors were making a fortune investing in the new endless growth instrument: blazing hot solar stocks.  If you have followed this sector, you have seen how many of these stocks have fallen 60%, 70% and some by even 90%.  But today, GT Solar International, Inc. (NASDAQ: SOLR) did something worse than the other companies facing slowing orders. It cut jobs.

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The Inevitable Recapitalization of Charter (CHTR)

Burning_money_pic_4If you have been following the land of low-priced stocks that are active in trading volume for long, you will find many groups of traders who have been betting on the success or death of Charter Communications, Inc. (NASDAQ: CHTR).  Today came the announcement that it has asked Lazard to initiate discussions with bondholders regarding alternatives to improve its balance sheet.

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GM Idling Plants In Cost Cuts (GM)

General Motors (NYSE: GM) is finally taking a step in the obvious direction.  The company is now apparently cutting about 250,000 units of production in the first quarter.  This will be accomplished via temporary shut downs of its manufacturing and assembly plants for about 30% of the first quarter in 2009.  Some of the cuts include numbers previously given, but some do not. 

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Gold Stock Challenging 52-Week & All-Time Highs (RGLD, NEM, ABX, GG, GDX)

Gold_picWe didn’t include Royal Gold, Inc. (NASDAQ:RGLD) in yesterday’s look at mining stocks where we outlined scenarios which would make 2009 a great year or a lousy year for the sector’s key players.  But investors certainly have been looking it over. Shares closed at $37.06 yesterday, about $3.00 from their 52-week high.  In fact, shares even briefly put in a new 52-week high on an intra-day basis.

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Goldman Sachs Softens On Oil, Metals, and Commodities

Gs_logoGoldman Sachs is adding more sticks and branches on the blazing pyre for commodities bulls.  The firm has cut many commodity price targets for 2009.  While this is affecting the psyche of traders today, this call was rather late and a reversal now that the prior "possible" targets are so much higher than today’s prices. 

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Earnings Warnings Hardly Affecting Many Stocks (LSCC, UTX, STLD, FUL, WAT)

Burning_money_pic_3Earnings warnings are generally bad omens that rarely have a one quarter impact.  But with many of these stocks already pricing in really bad scenarios.  So when companies come in and say that revenues are down 3% or 12%, in many cases these are being rewarded by bottom-fishing traders who are trying to get into the stocks when the shares have sold off in many cases 50% or 75% (or more).  Some companies which issued earnings warnings are Lattice Semiconductor (NASDAQ: LSCC), United Technologies (NYSE: UTX), Steel Dynamics (NASDAQ: STLD), H.B. Fuller (NYSE: FUL) and Waters Corp. (NYSE: WAT)

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Treasury Gets Behind Car Company Bailout

According to MarketWatch, "Treasury says ’stands ready’ to help auto makers." "Treasury said auto aid would last until Congress acts."

GM’s (GM) shares, which were down as much over 15% are rallying on the news and are now off 10%

Douglas A. McIntyre

Deutsche Bank Slashes Automakers and Suppliers To Sell Following Bailout Failure (F, AXL, LEA, TRW, MGA)

Following the failure of the auto bailout in the Senate, Deutsche Bank is downgrading a number of auto makers and auto supply makers to Sell, calling it an "End of an Era." Downgraded to Sell were: Ford (F), American Axle (AXL), Lear Corp. (LEA), TRW Automotive Holdings Corp. (TRW) and Magna International, Inc. (MGA).

Deutsche Bank said, while there may be a reprieve from the Bush administration using TARP, an increasingly difficult operating environment will likely force leveraged automaker and supplier stocks to near bankruptcy levels."

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A Change Of Heart At The White House About Car Bailout

Now that the Senate has blown any chances of saving the auto industry before its first session next year and facing claims by GM (GM) and Chrysler that they are out of money, Bush may not want to be viewed as the president who ruining the America car industry.

According to several wire reports "The Bush administration will consider its options to save the auto industry, including using the $700 billion funds under the Troubled Asset Relief Program, White House spokeswoman Dana Perino said Friday."

Douglas A. McIntyre

Madoff: The $50 Billion Ponzi Man (NDAQ)

Bernie Madoff, the former non-executive Chairman of the NASDAQ (NASDAQ: NDAQ), has been arrested on an investor fraud case that has massive implications over trust and legitimacy on Wall Street.  The good news is that this fraud does not appear to be a systematic risk event.  The bad news is that the losses may be well into the "billions" of dollars.  The second bit of bad news is that this is just another mark against an already tarnished image on Wall Street.

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Dr. Pangloss Reviews Retail Data With Joy

Burning_money_pic_2You would have to be named Dr. Pangloss to find good news this morning on the retail sector, but in that fashion there might be a little reprieve from the degree of the onslaught of bad news.  Retail sales came out this morning for November, and they were not as bad as expected.

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Top Pre-Market Analyst Upgrades (ACAS, ANDE, CLX, CLB, EMC, IBKC, MFC, KWK)

Money_stack_picThese are some of the top pre-market analyst upgrades and positive calls we are seeing this Friday morning:

  • American Capital (ACAS) Raised to Market Perform at FBR.
  • Andersons (ANDE) Raised to Buy at BB&T.
  • Clorox (CLX) Started as Buy at Jefferies.
  • Core Labs (CLB) Started as Buy at Jefferies.
  • EMC (EMC) Started as Buy at Piper Jaffray.
  • IberiaBank (IBKC) Raised to Outperform at Baird and Raised to Market Perform at KBW.
  • Manulife Financial (MFC) Raised to Outperform at CIBC.
  • Quuicksilver Resources (KWK) Started as Buy at Collins Stewart.

Jon C. Ogg
December 12, 2008

Top Pre-Market Analyst Downgrades (AXL, AXP, COF, DRYS, EXPD, FII, F, LEA, SAP, TRW, VE, WAT)

Burning_money_picThese are some of the top pre-market analyst downgrades and negative calls we are seeing this Friday morning:

  • American Axle (AXL) Cut to Sell at Deutsche Bank.
  • American Express (AXP) Started as Sell at Deutsche Bank.
  • Capital One (COF) Started as Sell at Deutsche Bank.
  • DryShips (DRYS) Cut to Underperform at Credit Suisse.
  • Expeditors International (EXPD) Cut to Sell at UBS.
  • Federated Investors (FII) Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan.
  • Ford (F) Cut to Sell at Deutsche Bank.
  • Lear (LEA) Cut to Sell at Deutsche Bank.
  • SAP AG (SAP) Cut to Hold at Jefferies.
  • TRW (TRW) Cut to Sell at Deutsche Bank.
  • Veolia (VE) Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan.
  • Waters (WAT) Downgraded at 3 firms: Baird, Deutsche Bank, & Leerink Swann.

Jon C. Ogg
December 12, 2008

Goldman Sachs (GS) Bankers Check Into Poor House

R218533_855025Most of the CEOs at banks and investment houses are losing their bonuses this year, so what not let every employee at the firms share their pain? Even if they did nothing to deserve it? Some of them may have actually made money for the firm.

Who cares? The tidal wave carries everyone out to sea.

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Delisting Roulette (NT)(F)(FNM)(FRE)(AIG)(SIRI)(JAVA)

95129cThe Nasdaq and NYSE have all sorts of rules about what a company has to have in terms of total shareholders, stock price, and balance sheet ratios to get listed. Both operations also have regulations about what it takes to stay a listed company.

One of the key benchmarks is that corporations cannot trade below a dollar for too long. In most cases that period is 30 days. If a firm does not comply, it usually has some time to put together a plan to fix the trouble. In many instances that involves a reverse-split. In others the companies may put together spreadsheets and documents to predict how their business will get better thereby pulling investors into their shares.

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As Fed’s Assets Move Above $2 Trillion, Question Arises Of What It Is Really Worth

FedThe Federal Reserve now has an asset base of more than $2 trillion.

According to The Wall Street Journal, "Once recently announced programs to help consumer credit and mortgage markets are up and running, that figure should climb toward $3 trillion. The balance sheet was under $1 trillion as recently as mid-September."

But, is that real money, or Confederate dollars?

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Intel (INTC) Starts A Car Repair Company

IntelHand it to Andrew Grove, the former CEO of Intel (INTC). He wrote a book about how paranoid he is and why that kept his company ahead of the competition. It turns out he is also a fan of science fiction.

Grove believes that Intel can fix the car industry along with all the PCs and servers that it makes work. At least he remains ambitious in his old age.

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How Much Is GM (GM) Faking? The Balance Sheet Mind Game

Batmobile512With Republicans in the Senate thwarting an auto company bailout bill, GM (GM) has decided to play its trump card. It has hired bankruptcy counsel.

According to The Wall Street Journal, "GM (GM) management recently tapped bankruptcy veteran Harvey Miller of the New York law firm, Weil Gotshal & Manges LP, to handle what would be one of the largest and most controversial filings in U.S. history."

With the bill to send checks to The Big Three dead and in the process of being buried, getting advice for Chapter 11 is only prudent. GM should have done it weeks ago when the company’s cash was not so low. It would have made operating under court protection much easier.

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