Daily Archives: March 2, 2009

Bears still in charge as oil plunges to $40

By Joseph Lazzaro for DailyFinance.com

So much for that nascent oil rally. In this oil market, the bears rule. True, the bulls have their moments, but these are fleeting, like that proverbial church mouse that sneaks out for a peak from time to time, only to be chased back into its hole by the parish cat.

Oil’s free fall resumed in earnest Monday, as the world’s most important commodity plummeted $4.27 to $40.45 per barrel on renewed concern that a prolonged recession in the U.S. and internationally will reduce oil demand.

Read more….

Altera: Less Bad May Actually Be Good Enough (ALTR)

dram-image1Altera Corporation (NASDAQ: ALTR) issued a mid-quarter update after the close of trading today.  What is interesting is that things might not be quite as bad as the company rxoected  The news is far away from being good news, but sometimes “less bad is good enough.”
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First Solar Becomes Predator (FSLR)

solar-panel-picmoney-stack-image2It may seem a very gutsy call considering the economy, even in the Obama-favorite of the solar sector.  But First Solar, Inc. (Nasdaq: FSLR) has just announced that it is going to do a deal.  The company plans to significantly expand its penetration within the U.S. utility solar power market, and it is doing this through th e acquisition of OptiSolar’s solar project pipeline.
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The 52-Week Low Club (DOW)(IP)(CBS)(SCHW)(EBAY)(MSFT)(PFE)(GE)(C)

sad_clownCitigroup (C) Still fears of nationalization or a larger bailout. Falls to $1.15. from a 52-week high of $27.35.

GE (GE) Market not comforted that GE’s financial services are is not in trouble. Drops to $7.51 from 52-week high of $38.52.

Pfizer (PFE) Concerns about economic activity spreading to healthcare costs. Down to $11.65 from 52-week high of $22.67.

Microsoft (MSFT) New study shows PC sales will collapse this year. Drops to $15.79 from 52-week high of $32.10.

Ebay (EBAY) E-commerce likely next victim of retail contraction. Off to $10.28 from 52-week high of $33.47.

Schwab (SCHW) No one trading stocks, at least not at a profit. Dips to $11.94 from 52-week high of $26.20.

CBS (CBS) Advertising revenue drying up. Down to $3.85 from 52-week high of $25.

International Paper (IP) Cuts dividend. Plunges to $5.05 from 52-week high of $32.75.

Dow Chemical (DOW) Commodities prices and demand crippled. Sells down to $6.90 from 52-week high of $43.43.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Is Oracle About To Go After VMware Virtualization Turf? (ORCL, VMW, CTXS, MSFT, EMC)

oracle-logo1There is market chatter, despite the sell-off, that Oracle Corp. (NASDAQ: ORCL) may play catch-up in the virtualization space.  Jefferies has noted that Larry Ellison and friends may soon acquire privately held Virtual Iron, one of the leading independent virtualization players.  If the rumor is true, Oracle would be taking direct aim at VMware, Inc. (NYSE: VMW).
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Defensive Stocks Hammered Too (PEP, KO, TAP, KFT, CPB, HRL, MCD, MO, RAI, PG, CL, MRK, JNJ)

burning-money-pic4It’s another rough trading day in the stock market.  It is bad enough that the DJIA is down over 3% to decade lows and under 7,000… But even almost all of the defensive stocks are down today.  Many of these have been absolutely bashed in recent days and weeks as you will see compared to their 52-week highs.

Symbol   Last          Change              52WK-HI
PEP    $47.13    (-$1.01; -2.10%)   $75.25
KO      $39.96    (-$0.89; -2.18%)   $61.90
TAP    $35.84    (+$0.61; +1.73%) $59.51
KFT    $22.31    (-$0.47; -2.06%)   $34.97
CAG    $14.93    (-$0.15; -0.99%)   $24.87
CPB    $26.51    (-$0.26; -0.97%)   $40.85
HRL    $31.60    (-$0.23; -0.72%)   $42.77
MCD    $52.55    (+$0.30; +0.57%)  $67.00
MO      $15.31    (-$0.13; -$0.84%)  N/A “PM”
VGR    $11.74    (-$0.67; -5.38%)   $19.45
RAI    $33.57    (-$0.01; -0.03%)   $65.01
PG       $47.40    (-$0.77; -1.60%)   $73.57
CL       $58.47    (-$1.71; -2.84%)   $80.49
MRK   $23.93    (-$0.27; -1.12%)   $45.73
JNJ    $48.39    (-$1.61; -3.22%)   $72.76
NVO   $46.51    (-$1.91; -3.94%)   $73.73

Jon C. Ogg
March 2, 2009

Immelt & Neal Buying GE Stock (GE)

ge-logoGeneral Electric Co. (NYSE: GE) insiders are buying shares of their battered company stock.  Two Form-4s filed with the SEC show that CEO  Jeff Immelt and Vice Chairman Michael Neal each bought stock.  Neal’s purchase was 50,000 shares at a price of $7.90 for $395,000.  His direct holdings are now listed as 753,341 shares.  Immelt’s acquired 50,000 shares at $8.26 for some $413,000.00.  His direct holdings are now 1,724,936 shares of GE stock.

Insiders buying stock is no assurance that a slide is over.  Ask Immelt, as he has paid over $30.00 per share just last year.  But insider buying is often a sign that management believes enough is enough.  GE’s stock is down about 9% at $7.72 on very active trading,  Its $7.51 intra-day low is almost $0.90 under Friday’s low (also a multi-year low).

UPDATE AT 3:10 PM EST: Director Ralph Larsen acquired 30,000 shares at $7.65 per share for $229,500.00 today as well.  He now holds 157,784 shares.

Jon C. Ogg
March 2, 2009

Intel & TSM Outline System-on-Chip MOU (INTC, TSM)

dram-imageThis is getting completely swept under the table because of the stock market flush-out.  But we have been awaiting the announcement confirming last week’s reports of a venture between Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC) and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. (NYSE: TSM).  The companies now have agreed  to collaborate on a technology platform, IP infrastructure, and “SoC” solutions (system on a chip).
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PC Industry Going To Hell In A Handbasket (AAPL)(HPQ)(DELL)

pcGartner’s new research on PC sales for 2009 is out and there it nothing in it to cheer the likes of Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) or Dell (DELL). Sales of computers will drop so drastically this year that even the Apple (AAPL) Mac may be effected. Read More »

How Bad Will MBIA Earnings Be? (MBI, ABK, PMI, MTG)

burning-money-pic3MBIA Inc. (NYSE: MBI) is set to report earnings Tuesday,  before the market opens.  As the market has slid further, this troubled “guarantor” has gone with it and has again hit new 52-week lows this morning.

The prior 52-week range was $2.51 to $19.08, and it hit reached $2.42 this morning.  This was over a $60.00 stock in 2007.  It is hard to imagine that this beaten and battered stock has much influence or relevance any longer, but it still is followed.
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Reliant Joins NRG-Exelon Merger Bermuda Triangle (RRI, NRG, EXC)

money-stack-image1Reliant Energy Inc. (NYSE: RRI) is taking a hit this morning.  It wasn’t just the earnings loss, or its plans to sell a unit.  This really appears to be over the ramifications of the long-term aspects colliding with the near term aspects.  The company suddenly finds itself nestled inside this merger fight between NRG Energy, Inc. (NYSE: NRG) and Exelon Corporation (NYSE: EXC).

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Can SanDisk Win As Spansion Goes Bankrupt? (SNDK, SPSN, AMD)

burning-money-pic2Spansion Inc. (NASDAQ: SPSN) is toast.  At least that is the case for shareholders.  The maker and designer of flash memory chips has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection.  Spansion was not the largest player in the sector, but you have to wonder if competitors like SanDisk Corp. (NASDAQ: SNDK) and others could actually come out ahead while Spansion is suffering through bankruptcy.
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What If Chesapeake Production Cuts Work? (CHK, PXP, BP)

Chesapeake Energy Corporation (NYSE: CHK) is tired of not having profitable results from a key operation.  The largest natural gas player announced that it will cut its production by 7% and is considering a further reduction of 10% in drilling for 2009. Natural gas prices of about $2.70/thousand cubic feet get the blame. According to the company’s CEO, that’s a price at which most natural gas production is unprofitable.
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Pacific Ethanol Going Down? (PEIX)

burning-money-pic1Once the darling of investors Vinod Khosla and Bill Gates, Pacific Ethanol, Inc. (NASDAQ:PEIX) is now trading at just 5% of its share price one year ago. The company has just received a month’s grace period from its as it continues to seek new loans. Any takers?

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ARGUS Upgrades Cisco Systems (CSCO) to Buy

ARGUS upgrades Cisco Systems (Nasdaq: CSCO) from Hold to Buy with a $24 price target, citing valuation and its position for competitive outperformance.

ARGUS analyst says, “We recognize the risk of continued sequential revenue declines and concomitant margin pressure for the network giant. Nonetheless, we believe that Cisco is well positioned for competitive outperformance in its fast-evolving markets…

Read more…

Corning Talking Up LCD Business (GLW)

Corning Incorporated (NYSE: GLW) President and Chief Operating Officer Peter F. Volanakiswill address the Morgan Stanley Technology Conference in San Francisco today.  The company is updating its guidance and is giving some of its targets for 2009.  Surprisingly enough, it isn’t all that bad when you consider the reports  given by others in recent weeks.
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Note From UBS: AT&T (T) And Verizon (VZ) Dividends OK

empireA positive note on the big telcos from John Hodulik at UBS.

He writes: “Dividend cuts at other companies underscore strength at AT&T/VZ. With a number of large companies such as GE and JPMorgan having slashed their dividends, we believe AT&T and Verizon will increasingly be seen as safe havens within an increasingly ugly storm. We believe the dividends are safe at AT&T and Verizon due to their strong and stable cash flows, cost saving opportunities and the still high level of success-based capex in their budgets.”

Douglas A. McIntyre

Income & Spending Up In The Recession, Maybe

Personal Income & Spending for January have been released.  Personal income received by the workforce came in at +0.4%, while spending for durable goods and non-durable goods in the U.S. came in at +0.6%.  Bloomberg had estimates at -0.2% for personal income, which would have been consistent with the December reading of-0.2%.  Those estimates for spending were expected to be up by 0.4% after a 1% decline in December.

Frankly, this is actually a bit surprising when you consider the data that we have seen since January. Because there is a large time delay, you might have to wait for revisions on this before declaring a real victory.  The income component also looks like there were items and adjustments in the reporting.

The other reason this is surprising is because personal saving rose 5.0% in January.  That would be the highest reading since 5.5% in March 1995.  Again, this is good on the surface, but there is an issue here on whether you trust the data as being actual apples to apples and as to whether or not the data is accurate.

Jon C. Ogg
March 2, 2009

Goldman Sachs Upgrades AT&T (T) And Adds To Conviction List

cammonopoly_wideweb__430x32501AT&T (T) got a major upgrade this morning as Goldman Sachs moved it to “buy” and added the stock to its Conviction Buy List.

Jason Armstrong said in his research report that “We believe an aggressive estimate reset, a safe dividend, and positive trends in upcoming 1Q results fortify AT&T as a relatively safer investment at this point.” Read More »

DISH & EchoStar Confuse On Earnings (DISH, SATS)

DISH Network Corporation (NASDAQ: DISH) and former partner EchoStar Corp. (NASDAQ: SATS) have both reported earnings this morning.

DISH (DISH) earned $0.48 EPS on a 1% decline in revenues to $2.92 billion.  This is under estimates of $0.49 EPS and $2.96 billion in revenue, but the miss here is so close that in today’s market it might be considered a win.  DISH also lost 102,000 net subscribers by its own count.

EchoStar Corp. (SATS) is where this gets convoluted.  It posted a rather large loss at -$7.73 EPS on $496 million in revenue.  $247 million of the loss was a goodwill write down of $247 million for the purchase of Sling Media and $216 million in investment losses.  We do not have enough estimates on this one for it to really count, but consensus were about $563.3 million.

Neither stock has traded this morning.

Jon C. Ogg