Daily Archives: March 18, 2009

Oracle Hates The US Dollar (ORCL)

oracle-logo3Oracle Corp. (NASDAQ: ORCL) posted better-than- expected earnings after the close of trading.  It is also going to start paying a dividend.  But where this gets interesting is that Oracle would be doing so much better if it didn’t have to account for the pesky currency changes since the dollar has been so volatile.
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S&P Takes 3M Down A Notch (MMM, GE)

3m-logoStandard & Poor’s has just downgraded conglomerate 3M Company’s (NYSE: MMM) corporate credit and senior unsecured ratings to “AA-” from “AA.”  It affirmed the “A-1+” short-term credit rating and the new outlook is listed as STABLE.
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Spint (S) Losing Ground With New Products: Improvements At AT&T (T) And Verizon (VZ)(VOD)

winter10Sales of the new Samsung Instinct are not helping Sprint (S) very much. Of all the handsets the No.3 US cellular carrier sells, the Instinct ranks N0.15 in terns of unit sales and No.7 in terms of sales revenue, accourding to Comscore. The figures are based on sales at each carrier’s website.

The high-end phones at the other three large US carriers are much better at generating revenue. Read More »

FOMC Massively Gooses Gov’t. Balance Sheet

bernanke-image2The FOMC has come in with no rate change as we had expected.  When it is already at a near-zero rate policy, there was no other outcome.  The Fed Funds Target Rate was left at 0.00% to 0.25%, and the discount rate was left at 0.50%.  But where this gets interesting is the amount that the Federal Reserve is increasing the balance sheet via massive securities purchases.  Ben Bernanke is about to inject a massive amount of additional cash into the system.
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Bracing For Oracle Earnings (ORCL)

oracle-logo2Oracle Corp. (NASDAQ: ORCL) is set to report earnings after the close of trading today.  The enterprise software giant is expected to post non-GAAP earnings of $0.32 EPS and $5.45 billion in revenue according to Thomson Reuters (First Call).  The actual report might not matter as much as what Larry Ellison and friends have to say about the economic environment.
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Is Oil Keeping Gold From Hitting $800? (OIL, USO, GLD)

oil-well-image7gold-image1Conventional wisdom has it the the price of gold tracks the price of crude oil. As oil rises, so does gold, and vice-versa.  Probably the simplest explanation for the phenomenon is that the price of oil measures inflation threats, and as fear of inflation grips investors, they retreat to the safe haven of gold. That seems pretty straightforward.  But what about recessions? In a recession, inflation is rarely a significant issue. Deflation is by far the greater threat. And as prices, including oil prices, fall, gold offers no haven from deflationary effects.
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Unexpected Oil Inventory Rise Takes A Bite (USO, OIL)

oil-well-image6Oil may have just gotten some wind taken out of its sails after flirting with $50.00 per barrel late yesterday.  The DOE just released its weekly inventory data showing another build across the board.  Crude rose another 2 million barrels to 353.3 million barrels, gasoline rose 3.2 million barrels to 215.7 million barrels, and distillates rose roughly 100,000 barrels to 145.5 million barrels.

We were expecting only 1 million barrels crude oil inventories and were even expecting a decrease in gasoline inventories.  All of this was with refineries running at 82.1% capacity rather than the 82.7% seen the week before.  Imagine what these increases in inventories would have looked like if our refineries were just running at the same capacity as before.  This is continued demand erosion, which we keep seeing met by supply erosion in the number of rigs that get idled each week and month.

We have seen an immediate reaction in the controversial ETF, the United States Oil (NYSE: USO), where shares are now down 3% at $28.50. Even the iPath S&P GSCI Crude Oil Total Return Index ETN (NYSE: OIL) is down 3% at $18.50 after the news.

JON C. OGG

Exelon Fires Another Round (EXC, NRG, RRI)

money-stack-image43Exelon Corporation (NYSE: EXC) has filed its preliminary proxy statement for the 2009 annual meeting of NRG Energy, Inc. (NYSE: NRG). NRG still hasn’t scheduled the meeting, but Delaware law requires that the meeting be scheduled within 13 months of NRG’s last annual meeting, which was held on June 14, 2008.
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Can B of A Really Pay the TARP Back That Fast? (BAC, C)

b-of-a-logo1 Bank of America Corp. (NYSE: BAC)  is now claiming it could pay back the TARP monies late in 2009 or in 2010, earlier than expected.

In a report from the Charlotte Observer, CEO Ken Lewis said this is dependent on the economy.  He also reaffirmed that the bank would be profitable in 2009 barring an unexpected meltdown.  There are some interesting points that could get more heat off the bank.
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Goldman Sachs Downgrades Rio Tinto plc (RTP) to Sell

Goldman Sachs downgrades Rio Tinto plc (NYSE: RTP) from Hold to Sell citing problematic debt and forecasted losses in the aluminum division for the next two years.
 
The firm also said there is risk Rio Tinto’s deal with China’s Chinalco (NYSE: ACH) isn’t approved after Australian lawmakers moved to vote for an inquiry into last month’s $19.5 billion funding deal amid growing criticism..

Read more…

Valero Takes the VeraSun Prize (VLO, ADM, VSUNQ)

Valero Energy Corp. (NYSE:VLO) has won the auction for seven ethanol plants formerly owned by VeraSun Energy Corporation (VSUNQ), which is now in Chapter 11 bankruptcy. Valero will pay $477 million for the plants.

According to the AP, Archer Daniels Midland Inc. (NYSE:ADM) “participated” in the auction, but did not buy anything. ADM must be too busy looking at Brazilian sugar-cane ethanol producers.

Three other lender groups submitted bids totaling $576 million for other VeraSun refineries and properties. Valero will operate its new ethanol refineries through its Valero Renewable Fuels subsidiary.

Valero’s 52-week range is $13.94-$55/share. Shares closed at $18.50 yesterday. Buying ethanol refineries is likely to keep the price down closer to the bottom than to the top of that range.

Paul Ausick
March 18, 200

Top Analyst Upgrades (AAP, AZO, ED, CRH, DHR, LLY, INTC, LEAP, ORLY, SEIC)

money-stack-image42These are te upgrades and positive research calls that we have seen from Wall Street this Wednesday morning:

  • Advance Auto Parts (AAP) Started as Outperform at Baird.
  • AutoZone (AZO) Started as Outperform at Baird.
  • Con Edison (ED) Raised to Buy at Jefferies.
  • CRH plc (CRH) Raised to Buy at Goldman Sachs.
  • Danaher (DHR) Raised to Outperform at William Blair.
  • Eli Lilly (LLY) Raised to Buy at Citigroup.
  • Intel (INTC) Raised to Buy at Needham.
  • Leap Wireless (LEAP) Raised to Overweight at Thomas Weisel.
  • O’Reilly Automotive (ORLY) Started as Outperform at Baird.
  • SEI Investments (SEIC) Raised to Outperform at KBW.

JON C. OGG

Top Analyst Downgrades (AEG, ASTI, AVR, NU, RDS-A)

These are the top analyst downgrades and negative research calls we have seen on Wall Street this Wednesday morning:

  • Aegon (AEG) Cut to Sell at UBS.
  • Ascent Solar (ASTI) Cut to Sell at Cantor Fitzgerald.
  • Aventine Renewable (AVR) Cut to Underperform at Credit Suisse.
  • Northeast Utilities (NU) Cut to Hold at Jefferies.
  • Royal Dutch Shell (RDS-A) Cut to Hold at Citigroup.

JON C. OGG

AIG (AIG) May Pay Money To Hedge Funds

winter9Since AIG (AIG) is handing out money to anyone it can find, why not give some cash to hedge funds to help them show profits and potentially make their partners millions of dollars.

According to The Wall Street Journal, “Some of the billions of dollars that the U.S. government paid to bail out American International Group Inc. stand to benefit hedge funds that bet on a falling housing market.”

It would be a shame to see those hedge funds fail.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Beginning To Think The Worst About China’s Growth

water-lilies4The sound of China’s claims that its economy will grow at 8% or better this year are getting faint.

According to the FT, “The World Bank  lowered its forecast for China’s GDP growth this year to 6.5 per cent, down from 7.5 per cent it predicted at the end of November last year, following a huge drop in exports and shrinking private sector investment.”

Even that estimate may be too high. Read More »

IBM (IBM) To Pay Too Much For Sun (JAVA)

blue-hills4In a weak economy, troubled companies should never be bought at a premium. No one has mentioned that to IBM (IBM) which is looking at paying $10 a share for Sun Micro (JAVA) which would be almost 100% higher than where the stock trades now. Sun as been an also-ran in the server industry for close to a decade. It is hard to see what strategic value it has to IBM, but the larger company is flush with cash, and may not be able to help itself. Read More »

AIG (AIG): Paying Taxpayers Back With Taxpayer Money

bank22Using the oblique reasoning techniques of politicians, the Administration has decided to get back the big bonuses that AIG(AIG) paid to some of its employees by withholding the next of many payments made to the insurance company. Without the infusions, the company would have gone under and may still falter in the future. Read More »

Falling In Love With The Sucker Rally (C)(GE)(SIRI)(AAPL)

bear14The market rise of the last two weeks has been described as a “sucker” or a bear market rally. One means about the same as the other. The premise is that the long term trend of the indexes is down. Once in awhile, investors will stir from their depressions to watch the dead cat bounce. In this case, the Dow is up 10% since March 9.

The last long rally the market had ran from March of 2003, when the DJIA was 7,740 to almost 14,100 in October 2007. An investor in an index fund doubled his money and did even better if dividends were factored in. No one calls the long leg up in the market a sucker rally, but it was for those who did not sell their stocks until early this month when the Dow dropped below 6,600.

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General Motors (GM) Checkmates Obama In Two Moves

oil5The wooden but plucky CEO of GM (GM), Rick Wagoner, told the press that if his company is allowed to go into Chapter 11, it will end up being a simple liquidation. GM will be torn into pieces and sold off as scrap. He made one good point to support his point of view. If a bankruptcy of the No. 1 US car company drags on for several months, potential auto buyers will purchase vehicles from competitors that they view as being “safe”.” No one wants to buy a car that won’t be serviced. Wagoner has made this point before, but it is more compelling now that the deadline for the government to approve or disapprove GM’s restructuring plan is only two weeks away. Read More »

Media Digest 3/18/2009 Reuters, WSJ, NYTimes, FT, Bloomberg

newspaper15According to Reuters, AIG (AIG) will have to pay taxpayers back for bonuses it paid out before it can get its next $30 billion in loans.

Reuters reports that Coke (KO) is being blocked by the Chinese government from buying a juice company there.

Reuters writes that the head of GM (GM) says the Ford (F) deal with UAW will not work for the No.2 US car company.

Reuters reports that the World Bank wants the G20 to take a harder stance against protectionism

Reuters writes that the US economy is showing signs of coming out of its hole.

Reuters reports that investors in Starbucks (SBUX) want to see more savings.

Reuters reports that Apple (AAPL) released more applications for the iPhone. Read More »