Daily Archives: March 20, 2009

Our Rig Count Keeps Dropping, Despite Rising Oil (BHI, OIL, USO)

offshore-rig-pic3Baker Hughes Inc. (NYSE: BHI) has just released its weekly total rig counts for the US and Canada and for offshore rigs.  Despite the notion that oil is now back above $50.00 and calls to get off foreign energy dependence, the drilling rigs in North America are continuing to be cut. And cut.  And cut.  Hell, Canada looks like it is getting out of the oil industry entirely.  Here are this week’s new rig counts showing how far these keep getting idled:

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Bernanke Keeps Challenging ‘Too Big to Fail’ Notions

bernanke-image3Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke has been out in his last three or four speeches now trying to address the “too big to fail” issue.  What is interesting is that he is now ringing the tune that (as possible systematic risk regulator) he doesn’t want this to be the case in the future.  Just recently he and others have been debunking any notion of nationalization where the government would seize control and operate a large institution with the aim of putting it back to the market.  So, do we dare assume that now the tune will be “We do not want to run banks, but we will close and liquidate them?”
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Simon’s Dilution Takes Away Some Debt Worries (SPG)

money-stack-image47Simon Property Group, Inc. (NYSE: SPG) priced a secondary share offering of 15 million shares at $31.50/share.  Simon also made a concurrent offer of approximately $500 million worth of 10-year senior notes. Proceeds should total about $1 billion.  This is hitting shares, but this offering actually helps the company.

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The State Of Starbucks (SBUX):Inside its existential crisis.

By Dan Mitchell of TheBigMoney

Most years, Howard Schultz, chairman and CEO of Starbucks, uses the annual shareholders meeting to introduce a major new product or a cool new piece of coffee-making equipment. Something buzzworthy.

At this year’s meeting, held in Seattle on Wednesday, there was nothing in the way of buzz, and Schultz introduced nothing new, except for a focus on “value” and a fresh effort to squash the “myth” that “there is a $4 cup of coffee at Starbucks.”

Problem is, it’s not really a myth. Some of Starbucks’ coffee drinks do cost $4 and even more. But even when they cost less, they are still an extravagance. And in a recession, extravagances are the first thing to go.

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The Fallacy of Buffett Takeover Lists (BRK-A, SYY, VFC, DHR, BNI, WFC, COP)

buffett-image2It seems that there is renewed interest in a Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (NYSE: BRK-A) acquisition strategy for another large takeover.  This has always been on the table, and as we noted in the most recent annual report, Buffett has mentioned an interest.  He even laid out a set of criteria.  But the new list of companies that is being passed around as a potential target list actually is based upon the current numbers rather than on many of these actually being legitimate targets.
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Market Sees Rising Chance That Geithner Will Be Out At Treasury, Taking AIG Blame Won’t Help

The calls for the head of U.S. Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner are growing daily and with news breaking late tonight that Geithner is taking the blame for the AIG (NYSE: AIG) bonuses, this trend will likely continue.

inTrade, the prediction market which lets folks trade on political futures, is seeing an increasing chance that Geithner will depart.

Read…

This Week’s Biggest ‘GOING CONCERN’ Stocks (AVR, BBI, CROX, EBHI, MGM)

Will a 'going concern' note burn your money?

Will a 'going concern' note burn your money?

We are still in the midst of “annual report season” as companies have been submitting their 10-K filings with the SEC. Or in some cases delaying those filings.  There is one theme that has been much stronger during this recession than during any recent years, and that is the dreaded “GOING CONCERN” notice from auditors in the amount of companies which are well known.  And this year’s round of GOING CONCERN notes has a host of names that were formally great stocks.

A going concern is the ability of a company to continue to operate as things are now and not go out of business or have to liquidate its assets.  The out is of course that the company must be able to raise enough capital or exit certain operations to stay operational.   Here are some of the big names with the notes that have come out this week:
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Top Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades (EXPE, F, JNJ, CTXS, DSX, EGLE, GM, JCI, HOT, URBN)

These are the top upgrades and downgrades from Wall Street analysts this Friday morning:

Expedia (EXPE) Raised to Buy at Citigroup.
Ford (F) Started as Buy at UBS.
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Raised to Buy at UBS.
Citrix Systems (CTXS) Cut to Market Weight at Thomas Weisel.
Diana Shipping (DSX) Cut To Market Perform at Wachovia.
Eagle Bulk Shipping (EGLE) Cut To Market Perform at Wachovia.
General Motors (GM) Started as Sell at UBS.
Johnson Controls (JCI) Started as Buy at UBS.
Starwood Hotels (HOT) Cut to Underperform at FBR.
Urban Outfitters (URBN) Cut to Neutral at Cowen & Co.

JON C. OGG

March 20, 2009

Sony Ericsson: Global Handset Sales Disaster (NOK)(MOT)(AAPL)(PALM)

bear18Based on recent data on handset sales from research groups, Motorola (MOT), and Nokia (NOK) reinforced their forecasts that global cellphone demand could drop modestly this year

It would be the first time that has happened in over a decade. But, the drop was not seen as being catastrophic.

The latest figures from Sony Ericsson, the fourth largest supplier of handsets, indicate the sales of cellphones and smart phones are falling off a cliff. Read More »

Oil Moves Toward $60,

oil6Oil prices hit a low of $33.87 about a month ago. Now there are a lot of reasons that they could top $60, coming close to doubling in less than 60 days. While the drop from $147.27 last summer was a relief, the current climb may be extremely painful because it could compound other factors which are fueling the recession. Read More »

The Sony (SNE) PS3 Hits The Wall

bear17Sir Howard Stringer, the CEO of Sony (SNE), tried to convince himself and his company’s stockholders that the PS3 game platform would be a key component to turning the consumer electronics and entertainment firm around.

Over the last month, things have not worked out well for Stringer. He has sacked his No.2, admitted that Sony will take a loss, and froze the salaries of many employees. Read More »

Stupidity And The Alchemy Of Chaos

winter11“Never apologize and never explain–it’s a sign of weakness.”, John Wayne as Captain Nathan Brittles in “She Wore A Yellow Ribbon.”

One of the goals of big government in the midst of a crisis is to calm the masses. That was the thinking of leaders like Churchill and Roosevelt. It probably did not occur to them that inflaming the concerns of people who are worried about their jobs and keeping their homes is not a part of the solution to bringing a crisis to an end. Read More »

Beating Collegiality Out Of The Work Place

bear16American management began to do what it could to make office environments more pleasant sometime after the bad economic patch in 2001 and 2002. At some companies such as Wal-Mart (WMT) workers have been called “associates” for years. More and more companies began to refer to employees as “partners” and “team members” in the last decade.  Even middle management at many firms got into the habit of sending memos to “The Team”.

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Fear And Loathing In The Commercial Real Estate Industry

bank25In most large American cities there are office buildings which sit half finished in their financial districts. There are still huge cranes next to some of them. If the construction on a site ended months ago, there is nothing left beyond the skyscraper skeleton and a security fence to keep vandals out. Read More »

AAPL Weekly Headline Roundup: March 16-20

blue-hills5Apple shares broke through $100 this week with charts suggesting there’s more upside to come. Here are other top Apple headlines aggregated from 24/7 Wall St. partner Apple Investor News:

• iPhone 3.0 system software was announced Tuesday and due by Summer. Aside from cut-and-paste, better video, push technology, etc., the real story here: the 1,000 developer tools that will allow even more functionality for this mobile platform. Though the lack of new iPhone hardware discouraged some, this seems likely by mid-year. Read More »

Media Digest 3/20/2009 Reuters, WSJ, NYTimes, FT, Bloomberg

newspaper19According to Reuters, the House passed a bill that would tax AIG’s (AIG) and some other bonuses by 90%.

Reuters reports that the US gave auto suppliers a $5 billion lifeline.

Reuters says that it is too early to write off the dollar despite the Fed’s move.

Reuters reports that US jobless roll swelled to a record 5.47 million.

Reuters reports that GE (GE) sees a profit for its financial division but its number was below December views.

Reuters writes that HSBC (HBC), UBS (UBS), and Citigroup (C) made moves to improve their balance sheets.

Reuters reports that some rescued companies owe the US back taxes.

Reuters reports that the competition among online travel agencies is heating up. Read More »

Asia Markets 3/20/2009

Markets in Asia were mixed.

The Nikkei was closed for a holiday.

The Hang Seng fell 1.9% to 12,878.

The Shanghai Composite was up .7% to 2,281.

Data from Reuters

Douglas A. McIntyre