Daily Archives: April 7, 2009

Juniper Guidance, Oddly Moving Cisco (JNPR, CSCO)

money-stack-image11burning-money-pic7Juniper Networks, Inc. (NASDAQ: JNPR) has issued preliminary guidance for the quarter ended March 31, 2009. The networking company said that the revenue range is going to be between $760 million to $765 million.  This is below the prior guidance of $800 million to $830 million and under the First Call estimate of $794.3 million.  The first result might not be as bad as you think, and this may even have a Cisco Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: CSCO) angle to it.
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Alcoa Could Have Been Worse (AA)

Alcoa (NYSE: AA) has come out with earnings and losses which are as dismal as a vacation in hell without any water and without any flame retardant.  But the good news is that this is a bit “less bad” than what was expected, or at least not as bad compared to estimates as some might have been expecting.  There was a loss of $480 million on a 27% sequential drop in revenue, with net numbers coming in at -$0.59 EPS from operations and $4.1 billion in revenues.
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Consumer Credit Keeps Dropping (V, MA)

burning-money-pic6There is a reading of the economy which we used to see only go up and up, and that is the monthly consumer credit.  In the month of February, consumers cut their borrowings and this is the fourth reading in the last six months.  Consumer credit outstanding fell by an adjusted rate of about 3.5% or $7.5 billion, to $2.564 trillion.   We saw Bloomberg estimates of -$3 billion and Dow Jones had run estimates of -$1 billion.
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ADM, Another Greenwashing Event (ADM)

adm-logoArcher Daniels Midland Company (NYSE: ADM) has seen its stock pounded by double-digit percentages today.  While economic woes are acting against it, ADM and Canadian Bioenergy Corporation announced that the companies have entered into negotiations to form a joint venture to construct and operate a 70 million gallon per year canola-based biodiesel production facility.  This operation would be at the site of ADM’s canola crushing plant in Lloydminster, Alberta.
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China’s Strange Assault on the Dollar

Is a supersovereign currency really anti-U.S. or really smart?

By Gabriel Beltrone of The Big Money

While the International Monetary Fund struggles to work through its identity crisis, China has decided to rock the boat of global finance by trying to dethrone the dollar as the world’s benchmark currency.  WTF, China? America is the best country on earth. We’re happy with the dollar standard; why aren’t you? And if the dollar is so bad, why do you continue to prop it up by buying so many U.S. Treasury bills?

Here’s a quick recap of conflicting signals. On March 11, U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner entreated the international community to commit an additional $500 billion to the International Monetary Fund. On March 23, Chinese central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan proposed an international reserve currency backed by the IMF on the very same day that Vice Governor Hu Xiaolian assured reporters that China would continue investing in Treasury bills.

Read more….

Alcoa, Not A Real Earnings Season Proxy (AA)

burning-money-pic5Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA) is leading off the deluge of earnings report for the Q1-2009 earnings season today.  Historically, many traders have thought that Alcoa could be used as a measuring stick for other companies about to report.  While it may face many of the same issues as the metals companies and as companies manufacturing durable goods, the good news is that Alcoa has little correlation to the broad services economy.  Most feel the only relation that the company has to the broader market is that it will be an exaggerated “bad” report along with many other companies and sectors this quarter.  This company has also telegraphed so many problems ahead that it is hard to imagine what else is not baked into the cake today.
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Bailout Dilemma: Ratings Agencies Win, Despite Fault (MCO, MHP, BRK-A)

burning-money-pic4If you have read us for a long period of time, you know exactly how we feel about the ratings agencies.  We attribute much of the blame of the current financial crisis to their practices and the inherent conflicts of interest in their business models.  So far, they have avoided the hangman of the government and the backlash against all of their business drying up.  The top agencies are Moody’s Corp. (NYSE: MCO) and The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. (NYSE: MHP) for its Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services, with Fitch being the number three player.  On top of unjustly avoiding the hangman, they appear to be getting some of the bailout money on at least an indirect basis.  This outrages us about as much as some executive compensation outrages much of the public.
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2009 Hurricane Season Outlook: Now ‘Just Average’

hurricane-image1The Colorado State University forecast team has predicted that the 2009 hurricane season will be an “average” Atlantic basin hurricane season year rather than a light year or heavy year.  This new forecast now anticipates 12 named storms forming in the Atlantic basin between the June 1 and November 30 Hurricane season, which is actually a lower estimate of 14 which it projected in December.  If there is one thing that oil and energy traders look at beyond the economy and demand for oil, it is how natural disasters will affect supply and demand in the U.S.
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Top CEO Poll: Fire People As Fast As Possible

bear11The Business Roundtable is a small group of CEOs, but an elite one. Its members are chief executive officers of leading U.S. companies with more than $5 trillion in annual revenue and nearly 10 million employees. They comprise nearly a third of the total value of the U.S. stock markets.

The most recent survey of the group, which looks at their outlook for the next six months, does not yield very optimistic results, particularly in the arena of job cuts. Read More »

Lukoil, Profits & Losses (COP, LUKOY)

offshore-rig-pic53The largest non-government owned oil company in Russia, OAO Lukoil, has reported a net loss of $1.6 billion for the fourth quarter of 2008, according to the company’s financial statements filed today. The company attributed the loss to a slump in hydrocarbon prices in Q4-2008 along with a loss resulting from the ruble devaluation, and high level of export duties rates in the beginning of the quarter.

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Rio Tinto Cuts Australian Jobs (RTP)

Citing low demand for aluminum, Rio Tinto plc (NYSE:RTP) has cut more than 700 jobs at its Australian mines. The company also plans to slow the expansion project at one mine by nearly 23% to 15 million metric tons.  In January, Rio announced that it would cut 14,000 jobs worldwide in an effort to cut costs to help the company meet its debt obligations. These latest job cuts were not included in that original reduction.
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More Solar Power Comes to Colorado (XEL, SPWRA)

solar-panel-pic1Xcel Energy Inc. (NYSE:XEL) plans to build a 17-megawatt photovoltaic solar power plant in Colorado using cells from SunPower Corporation (NASDAQ:SPWR-A). The plant is expected to be completed by the end of 2010, and the report says this will be the second-largest solar PV plant in North America.
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Citi Upgrades American Express (AXP) to Hold; Bear Case Losing Steam

Citi upgrades American Express (NYSE: AXP) from Sell to Hold. Price target increased from $9 to $16.

Citi analyst says, “Given the stock performance over the past four months (shares down 40%) and some signs of a credit market recovery, the bear case scenario for AXP is simply less compelling.

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The Good Of a Dollar Alternative

By John Tamny of RealClearMarkets

When it’s asked why foreigners frequently look askance at Americans, the answer usually boils down to our supposedly obnoxious nature; one that at times reveals itself in foreign policy initiatives that some around the world don’t like. The former is likely due to our being the descendants of some pretty courageous people who crossed oceans to participate in what was a libertarian experiment, while the latter should be answered by foreign policy experts.

But arguably the most compelling reason for foreign dislike of the United States is something that is not frequently commented on. In short, U.S. oversight of the dollar since 1971 has been nothing short of irresponsible, and as the dollar remains the world’s currency, poor dollar policy has invariably impacted the world in very negative ways.

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Top Analyst Downgrades (ANSS, CBT, ED, CFR, DUK, LLY, EL, GGP, HW, ISRG, OMTR, RBS)

These are some of the top analyst downgrades and cautious research calls we have seen from Wall Street early this Tuesday morning:

Ansys (ANSS) Cut to Neutral from Overweight at JPMorgan.
Cabot (CBT) Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan.
Consolidated Edison (ED) Cut to Neutral at Credit Suisse.
Cullen/Frost Bankers (CFR) Cut to Underperform at Oppenheimer.
Duke Energy (DUK) Cut to Neutral at Credit Suisse.
Eli Lilly (LLY) Cut to Underperform at Leerink Swann.
Estee Lauder (EL) Cut to Sell at UBS.
General Growth Properties (GGP) Cut to Market Perform at Wachovia.
Headwater (HW) Cut to Hold at Canaccord Adams.
Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) Cut to Market Perform at Leerink Swann.
Omniture (OMTR) Cut to Hold at Citigroup.
Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) Cut to Market Perform at Bernstein.

JON C. OGG

Top Analyst Upgrades (ADBE, ALGT, AXP, DRIV, GMR, MSFT, NFLX, OMTR, CRM, SYMC)

These are some of the top analyst upgrades or positive initiations we have seen early this morning with about two hours until the open:

Adobe Systems (ADBE) Raised to Outperform at RBC.
Allegiant Travel (ALGT) Started as Overweight at Barclays.
American Express (AXP) Raised to Hold from Sell at Citigroup.
Digital River (DRIV) Raised to Outperform at RBC.
General Maritime (GMR) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan.
Microsoft (MSFT) Raised to Outperform at RBC.
Netflix (NFLX) Started as Overweight at Thomas Weisel.
Omniture (OMTR) Raised to Outperform at RBC.
Salesforce.com (CRM) Raised to Outperform at RBC.
Symantec (SYMC) Raised to Outperform at RBC.

JON C. OGG

IMF Says Toxic Asset Damage Getting Much Worse

r218533_8550251Every time the IMF issues an estimate for the cost of the losses from toxic assets at the world’s financial institutions, the numbers get worse.

According to the Times, “;Toxic debts racked up by banks and insurers could spiral to $4 trillion (£2.7 trillion), new forecasts from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) are set to suggest.” Read More »

GM’s (GM) Future May Ride On Two Wheels And Not Four

oil2GM’s (GM) domestic car sales are off almost 50% this year, so selling cars is no longer the company’s strength. Since it is an auto firm, coming up with an alternative business would seem to be impossible, but the No.1 US car company is giving it a stab.

GM and motor scooter company Segway are going to begin to market a two-wheel urban cruiser which may sell well enough to bring GM some meaningful revenue in its home market. Read More »

Freezing The Pay Of Everyone In America

bank9One alternative path to firing people used by some companies is to freeze the pay of  employees. In some cases firms have such tremendous revenue problems that they lay off people and cap the pay of those who are left to man the ship. As the recession deepens, freezing salaries has become more wide spread, and nearly half of US companies may resort to the practice in the very near future. Read More »

Another Setback But Blockbuster (BBI) Is Likely To Survive

bear10Blockbuster’s (BBI) auditors gave the company a “going concern” letter which is often a kiss of death. The document is a way for the accounting firm to say the operation is unlikely to make it another year. In Blockbuster’s case, the news probably is not all that bad. The firm’s creditors have already agreed to restructure debt and give Blockbuster more time to re-create its business and build back the revenue that it is losing from renting movies out of stores. Alternatively, there is some expectations that Blockbuster can slash expenses so brutally that its operating income will recover. Read More »