The Treasury Department may want to adjust what it thinks the cost of the bailouts of GM (GM) and Chrysler will cost. Word out of Japan is that Toyota (TM) will loss $5 billion in the next fiscal year.

According to Reuters, ” Toyota Motor Corp’s operating loss could balloon to over 500 billion yen ($5 billion) in the year to March 2010, as the global economic crisis hits car sales.” Since Toyota is picking up market share and still has a lower cost base that The Big Three it is likely to do better on its bottom line that The Big Three. That may change based on new agreements between the UAW and GM, Ford (F), and Chrysler, but a new contract is not in place for all three companies.

If Toyota has a cold, US car companies will not recover from pneumonia anytime soon.

Douglas A. McIntyre