The Administration today raised its estimate for the federal budget for this fiscal year by $89 billion, 5%, to $1.84 trillion. The new, higher number is nearly the same as the one provided by the Congressional Budget Office.

The number is likely to be revised up again, and perhaps several times. Even if the government can hold to its plans for expenditures, it is extremely likely that tax receipts will continue to plummet.

A great deal of the Administration’s forecast relies on GDP numbers which it expects will show healthy growth beginning next year. If that is not the case and unemployment remains high, businesses and individual taxpayers will almost certainly not produce the income that are forecast by The White House now.

Douglas A. McIntyre