Daily Archives: July 8, 2009

Alcoa Able To Sell Less-Bad As Good (AA)

Money Stack ImageAlcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA) posted a narrower-than-expected loss of -$0.26 EPS on a non-GAAP basis and -$0.32 EPS from continuing operations.  Revenues were down sharply to $4.24 billion (from $7.62 billion a year ago), but also narrower-than- expected.  Thomson Reuters had estimates at -$0.38 EPS and $3.93 billion. The company generated cash from operations in the second quarter of 2009 of $328 million, an improvement of $599 million from the first quarter.

Read More »

Hot Topic: Twilight Can’t Help Forever (HOTT)

Burning Money PicHot Topic, Inc. (NASDAQ: HOTT) is continuing to lose its momentum.  The company had been a huge winner for being tied to the  apparel from the Twilight teen vampire movie.  But apparently vampire envy in apparel can get a stake through the heart too.  The company’s same store sales are shrinking again, and now we have an earnings warning.
Read More »

Did Amazon.com’s Kindle Already Peak? (AMZN, SNE)

Kindle ImageThere has been a lot of coverage of the Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN) Kindle e-book reader.  But what happens when you hear there has been yet another price cut on the device?  Some have tried to use this device as one more hail as a the death to printed books (and newspapers).  And some look at this as just another major missed opportunity from Sony Corp. (NYSE: SNE).
Read More »

Cybersecurity: Obama’s Next Big-Ticket Agenda Item

uncle sam

It’s taken a back seat to health care, but one of the next big agenda items for President Obama’s administration is cybersecurity, a priority that is becoming all the more clear following July 4 hacker attacks on the White House, the Pentagon and the New York Stock Exchange.

The Associated Press reports that the attack on U.S. and South Korean government agencies last week was even broader than first realized. Other agencies targeted by the malicious code included the National Security Agency, Homeland Security Department, State Department, the Federal Trader Commission, the Treasury, the Nasdaq stock market (Nasdaq:NDAQ) and The Washington Post (NYSE:WPO). Read More »

What Is Macau IPO Really Worth to Las Vegas Sands (LVS, MPEL, WYNN)

Money Stack ImageLas Vegas Sands Corp. (NYSE: LVS) has been all over the news today on reports that the company may conduct an initial public offering for its Macau assets.  The company would like to raise $3 billion to $4 billion, but this would likely only be a part of that raise.  Some traders are trying to imply a $3 billion to $4 billion value on Macau based on some creative re-reporting of the Reuters figures.    What we wanted to do was figure out what the assets could fetch on their own in an IPO.  The bad news is that an outright sale right now is something we think is elusive, at least anywhere near what Sheldon Adelson would want to sell it for.  If you consider the current market values of Melco Crown Entertainment Limit (NASDAQ: MPEL) or Wynn Resorts Ltd. (NASDAQ: WYNN), the value for Macau is just not anywhere what it once was.
Read More »

Further Evidence That Alcoa Has Low Correlation To Earnings Season Trends (AA, SPY, XME)

Alcoa, Inc. (NYSE: AA) is one of the first stocks that kicks off earnings season every quarter.  Today is its actual earnings report after the closing bell.  What is interesting is that traders try to use this stock as a bogey for measuring earnings trends for the market as a whole and as well for the metals and mining sectors.  We have always held that because the company has had so many problems that everything might be coincidental rather than correlated. We wanted to compare this to the S&P 500 measured by the corresponding performance of the SPDRs (NYSE: SPY). The SPDR S&P Metals & Mining (NYSE: XME) ETF is what we use to track broader metals as a whole and it has Alcoa as a 3%+ component. While the recent earnings seasons and markets have been extremely volatile, we ran trends going back for 8 of the last earnings seasons comparing Alcoa to the SPYDERS and to the XME ETF.
Read More »

BioHealth Business Daily (AMGN, NVS, AMLN, LLY, ALKS, NVO, LLY, VICL, SCLN, ARNA)

These are some of the top stories affecting key drug and biotech stocks that are covered with more in-depth details and analysis this morning at BioHealthInvestor.com:

Amgen Inc’s (Nasdaq: AMGN)’s osteoporosis drug did so well in a head-to-head Phase III trial vs. the current standard drug from Novartis Inc. (NYSE:  NVS) that the Amgen’s drug may become the new standard for patients with breast cancer.

Amylin Pharmaceuticals Inc. (Nasdaq: AMLN), along with partners Eli Lilly & Co. (NYSE: LLY) and Alkermes Inc. (Nasdaq: ALKS), announced its new drug application for a once-weekly version of Byetta will be reviewed by the FDA, which may  help invigorate growth for the franchise.

Vical Inc. (Nasdaq: VICL) announced a positive four-month interim analysis for what is arguably its second-largest market opportunity, taking potentially another small step toward the goal of attracting a partner for its herpes vaccine program.

SciClone Pharmaceuticals Inc. (Nasdaq: SCLN) shares are down more than 7 percent on revenue and secondary offering fears. And Arena Pharmaceuticals Inc. (Nasdaq: ARNA) shares are falling after another dilutive offering.

Also, see our in-depth feature this week on five of the fastest-growing biotechs with improving analyst estimates: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals Inc. (Nasdaq: ALNY), Amicus Therapeutics Inc. (Nasdaq: FOLD), Halozyme Therapeutics Inc. (Nasdaq: HALO), American Oriental Bioengineering Inc. (NYSE: AOB), and Stemcells Inc. (Nasdaq: STEM).

-The 24/7 Wall St. Team

Repeat of Oil Inventory Trends (USO, OIL)

Oil Well ImageThe weekly oil inventories data came out of the U.S. Department of Energy at 10:30 AM EST this morning.  Crude Oil was already down under $62.00 on global economic worries, and now WTI Crude is down -$1.44 at $61.49 per barrel.  The United States Oil (NYSE: USO)  and the iPath S&P GSCI Crude Oil Total Return Index ETN (NYSE: OIL) are chasing the level of black gold.  The data came out as follows:

Day Trader Alerts (AMGN, NVS, MSCS, DRYS, ARYX, XNPT, ARNA, BPZ)

These are some of the top stocks for day traders and active traders to watch based on pre-market and after-hours volume activity with links to more detailed price and volume analysis on each situation at VSInvestor.com:

  • Amgen Inc. (AMGN) is up about 13% on positive Phase III trial results; Novartis Inc. (NYSE: NVS) may be affected negatively.
  • MSC Software Corp. (Nasdaq: MSCS) shares are up as Symphony Technology placed a bid on the company for $360 million.
  • DryShips Inc. (Nasdaq: DRYS) scored a Credit Suisse upgrade on the stock with close a 5% gain.
  • ARYx Therapeutics Inc. (Nasdaq: ARYX) is getting halved after the company’s experimental anticoagulant failed in a late-stage study.
  • xenoport Inc. (NASDAQ: XNPT) shares were down strongly after hours on a secondary offering.  Ditto on Arena Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: ARNA).
  • BPZ Resources Inc. (NYSE: BPZ) is rising after it announced a credit line that will be used to help it fund projects in Peru.

-The 24/7 Wall St. Team

G8 Worries Over Whether Stimulus Money Is Being “Delivered”

GeithnerMost analysis of the stimulus packages put together by France and the huge $585 billion Chinese program to keep its GDP growing showthat the capital is already making its way into these economies which is helping employment and spending. Reviews of the $787 billion US effort is that much of the money will not effect the economy until next year.

The US program may end up being a failure simply because it is acting too slowly and unemployment will probably be 10% by the fall. There has even been discussion of a second stimulus package. Read More »

Crazy or Gutsy? The Call for $2 on General Electric (GE)

GE LogoWe rarely have time to watch video interviews from around the web early in the morning, but what choice is there when someone is calling for General Electric Co. (NYSE: GE) to be worth a mere $2.00 per share.  Charles Ortel, managing director of Newport Value Partners, gave an interview with Aaron Task at Yahoo! supporting this thesis.
Read More »

Mixed Data on Oil Rig Counts (BHI)

Oil Well ImageBaker Hughes Incorporated (NYSE:BHI) has released its June data for rig counts.  The bad news is that there are still some drops being recorded in rig counts from May, and these counts still look atrocious if you take a year over year comparison from when oil prices were through the roof.  We would note, however, that this is slightly misleading if you just look at the raw data.  We have seen a firming of these rig counts over the last two weeks, even if this firming is still very far from robust growth.
Read More »

Reversal Call in First Solar (FSLR)

Solar Panel PicShares of First Solar, Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR) are rising this morning for a change.  ThinkEquity raised the rating on the solar leader to a BUY rating from an already somewhat positive Accumulate rating.  So far we have shares trading up 1.8% on thin trading volume.  Pre-market indications are $147+ after a four day consecutive price drop trend has been seen.  In fact, 6 of the last 9 sessions were negative for First Solar.  This is just a quick hit on this one and more will follow as time permits.

Jon C. Ogg

Top 10 Analyst Upgrades and Downgrades (APD, CHTT, CTXS, FCX, PLAB, QCOM, SAP, PCU, STM, HOT)

These are the top ten pre-market analyst upgrades, downgrades, and initiations we have seen from Wall Street analysts this Wednesday morning with about two and a half hours until the market opens:

  • Air Products (APD) Raised to Buy at KeyBanc.
  • Chattem (CHTT) Cut to Hold at Jefferies.
  • Citrix Systems (CTXS) Cut to Perform at Oppenheimer.
  • Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) Raised to Buy at Citigroup.
  • Photronics (PLAB) Raised to Buy at UBS.
  • Qualcomm (QCOM) Started as Outperform at Morgan Keegan.
  • SAP (SAP) Raised to Buy at Jefferies.
  • Southern Copper (PCU) Raised to Hold at Citigroup.
  • STMicro (STM) Raised to Buy at BofA/Merrill.
  • Starwood Hotels (HOT) Cut to Underperform at Baird.

JON C. OGG
JULY 8, 2009

New Airline Price Wars

airplaneAirline price wars are back, just when carriers cannot afford them. The price of  jet fuel is up. Passenger traffic is down.

Southwest (LUV) is offering fare as low as $30 one way on short flights and $90 on longer ones. Read More »

Pickens Plans To Kill His Alternative Energy Dream

gasT Boone Pickens is old and tired. He made his billions of dollars in the oil business. He planned to build his legacy on alternative energy. Pickens  has worked to build huge wind farms, using modern wind mills on the plains in north Texas. He needed government help to set up the facilities and move the power over the grid to where it would be needed the most.

Pickens’ visions may have worked when crude was above $100. It may have worked if the government was quick to upgrade the nation’s energy transportation infrastructure. Neither of those things is happening.  At age 81, Pickens is throwing in the towel. Read More »

Google’s (GOOG) Anemic Attack On Microsoft (MSFT) Windows

balllmerGoogle (GOOG) says it will create its own PC operating system. The first reaction to the news is that it is a threat to Microsoft (MSFT) Windows. That is almost certainly not the case.

A lot of the Google Chrome OS will run on the Internet, using Google servers and not PC hard drives. Relatively new PCs have a lot of computing power, so that is not an advantage. Read More »

The Great American Credit Card Debt Foregiveness Program

uncle samThe Administration has gone to great lengths to put together a package of programs to allow worthy homeowners who are having trouble meeting their mortgages to modify home loans to cut monthly payments. This allows people to stay in houses they might not otherwise be able to afford. Homeowners are not pushed out onto the streets, so the national foreclosure rate should improve as a result. The lower foreclosure activity should put a floor under housing prices. The plan is ingenious even though it has been slow to work its way through he home loan system and take effect. Read More »

It Is Easier To Fall Into Bankruptcy In A Recession

bearIt seems pointless to spend a lot of time proving that companies are more likely to go bankrupt during a recession. Margins are hurt by bad sales. Firms cannot easily get access to capital to tide them over.

Hackett Group has come up with figures that demonstrate that it is harder to forecast cash needs when the economy is bad. Uncertainty about sales makes it difficult for managements to determine what they will have in their bank accounts. Read More »

Media Digest 7/8/2009 Reuters, WSJ, NYTimes, FT, Bloomberg

newspaperReuters:   The economic crisis will dominate the G8 summit.

Reuters:   A NY court ruled against AIG (AIG) in a battle with former CEO Greenberg.

Reuters:   Google (GOOG) will launch an operating system for low end PCs to compete with Microsoft (MSFT).

Reuters:   US apartment vacancies are near historic highs. Read More »