We just had a deluge of economic data in Personal Income & Spending for September, a rather solid figure on weekly jobless claims and in continuing jobless claims, and a somewhat tepid durable goods orders data. While there is still nothing robust, the jobs data this morning is the tipping point that allowed equities to run higher.
- Personal Income & Spending for September were pretty much in-line at +0.2% on income and +0.7% on spending. Dow Jones had estimates at +0.1% on income and +0.6% on spending.
- Initial Jobless Claims came in at 466,000, the first drop under 500,000 in months and months and months. That is the lowest jobless claims all year and under the 495,000 expected by Bloomberg. If that can hold up and get closer to 400,000 then it will stop the rise in the unemployment rate. The army of jobless via the continuing jobless claims also fell by 190,000 to 5,423,000.
- Durable Orders (October) was a disappointment at -0.6% versus the Bloomberg estimate of +0.5%. For whatever it is worth, this is the most volatile of the big economic numbers. On an ex-transportation basis, the figure was worse still at -1.3%. However, ex-Defense the figure is +0.2% and the September headline data was revised to +2.0% from +1.4%.
Frankly, that jobs data is the crux of the matter. The rest is all gravy as equity futures have risen on the data.
JON C. OGG