Daily Archives: December 17, 2009

Nike’s Comments on Future with Tiger Woods (NKE)

Most people in America now are probably not as interested in what Nike Inc. (NYSE: NKE) did for earnings after the closing bell today, but the Tiger Woods story is still big news.  Our guess going into today was that everyone would want to hear about whether Tiger Woods was still going to be in the lineup of Nike athletes.  Nike did not really address this is the earnings release today.  It did turn out that this was the first question from the first analyst in the conference call Q&A session today.
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Posted on: December 17, 2009 – 7:01 pm in Apparel, Earnings, Entertainment, Media,

S&P Supports Amazon.com… Pullback an Opportunity? (AMZN)

Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN) may have found a new friend.  Standard & Poor’s has come out late in the day with a research note with “positive” credit implications for Jeff Bezos and friends.  S&P notes strong performance over the last year despite difficult economic conditions.  Amazon was placed on CreditWatch for its “BBB” investment grade rating with “Positive” implications.  Now that shares have pulled back almost $20.00 from the recent highs, this may be worth a look for investors who have looked for a chance to get into the great online retailer.  The recent pullback will still have many scratching their head over valuations.
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Posted on: December 17, 2009 – 6:24 pm in Analyst Calls, Internet, Retail,

Fannie & Freddie Christmas Gift: No Foreclosures (FNM, FRE)

It seems that Uncle Sam does not want to be the Grinch this Christmas and is giving a gift of no foreclosures during the holidays.  At least its GSE mortgage lenders in government conservatorship, Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) and Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE), both announced today that they are not going to evict homeowners during the Christmas holiday season.  Both companies have ordered its eviction attorneys to suspend all evictions involving foreclosed occupied single family properties with Fannie-owned or Freddie-owned mortgages during December 19, 2009 to January 3, 2010.
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Posted on: December 17, 2009 – 5:03 pm in Economy, Housing, Politics, ,

Palm’s Slight of Hand (PALM)

Palm Inc. (NASDAQ: PALM) is one of the companies many investors have felt is an at-risk entity.  Yet its reaction after the earnings call today is not signaling that.  The company posted a loss of -$0.54 GAAP EPS and -$0.37 non-GAAP EPS on revenues of $302 million non-GAAP for its second quarter.  Thomson Reuters had estimates of -$0.32 non-GAAP EPS and $266.17 million in revenues.  It is also claiming adjusted non-GAAP margins of 25.6%.  As always with Palm, there is more than meets the eye here.
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Posted on: December 17, 2009 – 4:38 pm in Consumer Electronics, Earnings, Technology Companies, Telecom, Wireless,

RIM’s (RIMM) Quarter: No Damage From Apple (AAPL)

Research In Motion (NASDAQ:RIMM) posted earnings after Street consensus was $3.78 billion in revenue and $1.04 a share. Guidance was for $3.6 billion to $3.85 billion and EPS of $1 to $1.08.

As it turned out Revenue for the third quarter of fiscal 2010 was $3.92 billion, up 11% from $3.53 billion in the previous quarter and up 41% from $2.78 billion in the same quarter of last year. The revenue breakdown for the quarter was about 82% for devices, 14% for service, 2% for software and 2% for other revenue. During the quarter, RIM shipped about 10.1 million devices, including its 75 millionth BlackBerry smartphone. Net income for the quarter was $628.4 million, or $1.10 per share diluted, compared with net income of $475.6 million, or $0.83 per share diluted, in the prior quarter and net income of $396.3 million, or $0.69 per share diluted, in the same quarter last year.

Approximately 4.4 million net new BlackBerry subscriber accounts were added in the quarter. At the end of the quarter, the total BlackBerry subscriber account base was about 36 million. Read More »

Posted on: December 17, 2009 – 4:17 pm in Earnings, ,

Oracle Shows How It’s Done, Still Wants Sun (ORCL, SAP, JAVA)

Oracle Corp. (NASDAQ: ORCL) has posted its earnings at $0.29 EPS on a GAAP basis, but $0.39 EPS on a non-GAAP basis.  Revenues were $5.86 billion for the quarter.  Thomson Reuters had estimates pegged at $0.36 EPS (non-GAAP) and $5.69 billion in revenues.  The interesting take here is that Oracle is again claiming market share gains against SAP AG (NYSE: SAP), but noted that the gains were in every region around the world.  As far as Sun Microsystems, Inc. (NASDAQ: JAVA), Oracle is looking to close this deal after hurdles at the European Union.
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Posted on: December 17, 2009 – 4:17 pm in Earnings, Software, Technology Companies, , ,

52-Week High Club (APWR, PIR)

A-Power Energy Generation Systems (NASDAQ: APWR) rose over 10.3% to a yearly high of $20.60 after the Chinese power system manufacturer announced that it signed a deal to supply turbines to a 600 megawatt wind farm in West Texas.

Pier 1 Imports Inc. (NYSE: PIR) rose over 11.4% to a yearly high of $5.55  after the furniture retailer announced a 3Q profit of $0.02 per share, beating analyst estimates.

Garrett W. McIntyre

Posted on: December 17, 2009 – 4:02 pm in Earnings, Green Biz, Retail, ,

Risks in Exxon-XTO Merger? (XOM, XTO, CVX, BP, RDS-A, CHK)

It seems that the huge game-changing deal between Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM) and XTO Energy Inc. (NYSE: XTO) may have more than just one risk associated with it.  The acquisition, announced on Monday, is a $31 billion all-stock transaction ($41 billion after debt assumption) for 0.7098 common shares of Exxon Mobil per share of XTO.  While both boards of directors have approved the deal, it seems as though there are almost certainly cracks which may be in the road ahead of this merger.

How this merger plays itself out could have substantial impacts on Chevron Corporation (NYSE: CVX), BP Plc (NYSE: BP) and Royal Dutch Shell (NYSE: RDS-A) in the oil patch.  It has broad implications on other natural gas players as well if you look at Chesapeake Energy Corporation (NYSE: CHK) stock.  Its shares rose about 6% on Monday after the deal was announced, and if shares hold the gains today they will have risen for three more consecutive days after that 6% gain.  It would not even be fair to show some of the smaller speculative stocks that gained since Monday.  We have tried to lay out the alternative risks here which could come up against this merger other than just the obvious risks of shareholders merely wanting more or the basic regulatory risks.
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Posted on: December 17, 2009 – 2:58 pm in Commodities, Mergers and Buy Outs, Oil & Gas, Politics, Regulation, , , , , ,

Gold May Be Dead For Rest of 2009 (GLD, GDX, ABX, GG, NEM, GDXJ)

If there was a single trading event for investors, traders, and speculators from early October to early December, it was not stocks and was not bonds.  It was not even the bet against the US Dollar.   It was the bright shiny yellow stuff… Gold.  Gold rose by over 20% in dollar-terms.  The DJIA is up close to 10% since then and the S&P is up almost 8% in the same period.  Longer-dated Treasury notes and bonds have not made any real money in that time.  Yet gold has pulled back now that the US Dollar has gotten off its back, and the pullback from the highs is now at about 10% in price.  We took a look at many issues to see if a top has been put in or if this pullback is a significant buying opportunity.

On top of tracking the key ETF, the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD).  We also wanted to take a look at the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSE: GDX) and its three key components of Barrick Gold Corporation (NYSE: ABX), Goldcorp Inc. (NYSE: GG), and Newmont Mining Corp. (NYSE: NEM).  Even the Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (NYSE: GDXJ) is worth noting here.
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Posted on: December 17, 2009 – 12:59 pm in Charts, China, Commodities, ETF, Metals, Technical Analysis, Trading Alert, , , , , ,

RIM/Blackberry Network Down Nationwide?

News is coming in from Blackberry users that the Research In Motion network is down nationwide and the Blackberry access is impossible.

Nice news right before RIM (NASDAQ:RIMM) earnings.

Update: The outage apparently affects consumers but not most users on corporate networks.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Posted on: December 17, 2009 – 10:48 am in Wireless,

Moody’s Calls Bottom in Homebuilders, Sort Of (XHB, ITB, HOV)

Moody’s Investors Service has raised the bias and outlook on the U.S. homebuilder sector this morning.  Its report was titled “U.S. Homebuilding Industry Shows Signs of Stability” and the ratings agency raised the sector’s outlook to Stable from Negative.  In short, Moody’s believes or suggests that a bottom has been reached.  There are some concerns still present here that might be worth a consideration before just hoping that the key stocks in the sector or that the key ETFs tracking housing will be great buys in 2010.

The SPDR S&P Homebuilders (NYSE: XHB) is down only about 0.25% at $14.83 on the day versus a 52-week trading range of $8.00 to $16.75.  The iShares Dow Jones US Home Construction (NYSE: ITB) is down about 0.8% at $11.63 verss a 52-week trading range of $6.33 to $13.93.  Both ETFs have recovered from their lows.  Hovnanian Enterprises Inc. (NYSE: HOV) had a huge day yesterday on the heels of the housing starts data, but the after-hours and pre-market reaction to its earnings, ergo losses, was a selling of the stock.  The homebuilder posted a wider-than-expected loss and it noted a 24% cancellation rate during the quarter.  The stock was down over 10% after earnings in the after-hours session, but came up substantially off of its lows to being down 6% and we had shares trading at the similar level this morning in pre-market.  At 10:35 AM we have shares down only about 4% at $4.06 (versus 52-week trading range of $0.52 to $5.75), and part of this recovery may be due to the Moody’s report.

Moody’s synopsis is that the stable outlook expresses a view that fundamental credit conditions in the industry will neither erode nor improve materially over the next 12 to 18 months.
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Posted on: December 17, 2009 – 10:46 am in Analyst Calls, ETF, Housing, , ,

Worst PR Of The Day: Sen. Ted Kaufman

Sen. Ted Kaufman may be the most self-aggrandizing member of Congress. His office sends out press releases ever few days about his stances on the financial services industry and other items he thinks the media will find interesting. It is unlikely that his points are picked up anywhere except his home town paper in Delaware.

Today he distributed his remarks on the IPO markets. Among them was his view of the economy.

“After suffering through the most severe recession in decades, we are now in the midst of the most fragile of recoveries.” Nice insight, but several months old.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Posted on: December 17, 2009 – 10:09 am in Politics

Top Day Trader Alerts (FSLR, EZCH, YONG, C, SQNM)

These are this Thursday’s top day trader alerts and active trader alerts.  We have links to more details and analysis over at VSInvestor.com for each stock:

First Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR) is up about 2% on guidance but off last night’s highs..

EZchip Semiconductor Ltd. (NASDAQ: EZCH) is down another 3% after yesterday’s drop on the secondary offering.

Yongye International, Inc. (NASDAQ: YONG) is down over 9% on a secondary offering.

Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C) is nuts today and down at $3.15, right where the secondary priced.  Look for 1 billion shares by the open.

Sequenom Inc. (NASDAQ: SQNM) is down over 8% on allegations it fudged test results.

You can sign up for our free daily email to hear more news on key analyst calls, top day trader alerts, mergers and acquisitions, Buffett and other investment gurus, IPOs, secondary offerings, private equity, and more.

JON C. OGG

Posted on: December 17, 2009 – 9:03 am in Pre-Market Activity, Trading Alert, , , , ,

Today’s Best Market Rumors (12/17/2009) (GE)(AMR)(AIG)

Updated throughout the day.

Tudor Investments will close its largest fund to investors  (Bloomberg)

Steve Cohen of SAC made money illegally trading on the RCA buyout by GE (NYSE:GE)  (Cohen’s ex-wife)

Apollo Management will buy amusement park company Cedar Fair  (AP)

Citigroup (NYSE:C) will suspend foreclosures for 30 days (AP)

AMR (NYSE:AMR) may up its bid to fund JAL  (Dow Jones Newswires).

Bank failures may increase in 2010 (The Street)

AIG (NYSE:AIG) may take its Asia life assurance business public which could raise $20 billion  (FT).

Douglas A. McIntyre

Posted on: December 17, 2009 – 8:52 am in Rumors, , , ,

Meredith Whitney Pans Goldman & Morgan (GS, MS)

Financial stocks were already looking mixed at best early this morning with the largest offering in capital markets history pricing last night for a trade today.  But Meredith Whitney, of her own Meredith Whitney Advisory Group, has lowered her earnings expectations  for both Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) and Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS).  Whitney has a “Neutral” rating on both stocks.

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Posted on: December 17, 2009 – 8:14 am in Analyst Calls, Banking, Brokerage Firms, ,

Top 10 Analyst Upgrades, Downgrades, Initiations (AMT, AMLN, BAC, BVF, CCI, ERTS, FRX, INTC, Q, VZ)

These are this Thursday’s top ten analyst upgrades, downgrades, and initiations seen from Wall Street research calls:

American Tower Corp. (NYSE: AMT) Started as Buy at Deutsche Bank.
Amylin Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: AMLN) Started as Buy at Jefferies.
Bank of America Corporation (NYSE: BAC) Started as Buy at UBS.
Biovail Corp. (NYSE: BVF) Started as Overweight at Thomas Weisel.
Crown Castle International Corp. (NYSE: CCI) Started as Buy at Deutsche Bank.
Electronic Arts Inc. (NASDAQ: ERTS) Raised to Buy at Needham.
Forest Laboratories (NYSE: FRX) Started as Outperform at Oppenheimer.
Intel Corp. (NASDAQ: INTC) Reiterated Sell at Auriga.
Qwest Communications (NYSE: Q) Started as Buy at Deutsche Bank.
Verizon Communications (NYSE: VZ) Started as Buy at Deutsche Bank.

You can sign up for our free daily email to hear more news on key analyst calls, top day trader alerts, mergers and acquisitions, Buffett and other investment gurus, IPOs, secondary offerings, private equity, and more.

JON C. OGG

Posted on: December 17, 2009 – 7:56 am in Analyst Calls, , , , , , , , , ,

Turning A Ford Into An iPod

Almost every business in the world that has hardware devices that run customized software want to create their own version of the Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) App Store. Apple claims that developers have created nearly 200,000 applications and that over two billion have been downloaded from the store itself. Every handset and wireless operating system company that tries to compete with Apple has its own version of the store.

Now, Ford wants to be in the software application download business as well. Read More »

Posted on: December 17, 2009 – 6:20 am in Autos, Entertainment, , ,

Twenty Percent Of American Lost Health Insurance Since Early 2008

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said that roughly 20% of American, 60 million people, were without health insurance at some point between the beginning of 2008 and now. The results of the survey go through the end of last June.

Two-thirds of those who did not have coverage for at least part of the time were unemployed, working-age adults. Those most likely to lack health coverage were Hispanics, men and young adults ages 18 to 24, the CDC found, according to a report from Reuters. Read More »

Posted on: December 17, 2009 – 6:07 am in Healthcare

Housing Recovery Can Wait Until 2011

The Wall Street Journal pointed out that many people are defaulting on their home mortgages not because they have to but because it makes sense. Some homeowners can afford the monthly payment, but they know that their houses will never give them a financial return.

Most research shows that the rate at which foreclosures is rising is slowing, but that trend is almost certainly temporary. A large number of people who took “interest only” loans three years ago are about to have monthly payments reset. The government’s mortgage modification plan has signed up very few permanent clients, and unemployment is likely to be above 10% during 2010. Read More »

Posted on: December 17, 2009 – 5:45 am in Housing

No Further Holiday Price Discounts

The fun part of the holiday season that involves getting things on sale may be ending. Retailers have managed their inventories better than they did last year. Large stores will not be stuck with huge numbers of shelves of unsold gifts. That means that price cuts have already been made and that last-minute markdowns are not coming. Read More »

Posted on: December 17, 2009 – 5:36 am in Retail, , ,