What The Top-Ten Selling Cars Will Be For 2011

The auto industry went through two bruising years in 2008 and 2009 when annual domestic sales dropped to about 10 million vehicles per year. This is in stark contrast to 2005 and 2006 when the figure was closer to 16 million. The depression in the industry drove GM and Chrysler into bankruptcy and caused tens of billions of dollars in losses among their financially stronger competition.

The sector has recovered somewhat this year, at least based on the progress made in the first half. The annual sales run-rate moved to about 12 million earlier in 2010 despite a raft of recalls led by Toyota. An improved economy and substantial incentives brought consumers back into showrooms.

The industry’s growth slowed in July, and August was one of the worst sales months in two decades. August last year may not be fair comparison because it was during the period when the federal government was running its “cash for clunkers” program which over 600,000 buyers took advantage. Still, domestic sales in August fell to 1,000,000 and the annual sales rate dropped to 11.7 million.

The following are the top ten August 2010 top auto sales year-to-date:

Nameplate	Units sold August	Total YTD August
Ford F-series	47,652.00	338,446.00
Toyota Camry	30,764.00	232,210.00
Chevrolet Silverado	34,084.00	223,381.00
Honda Accord	25,148.00	195,849.00
Honda Civic	22,803.00	190,649.00
Toyota Matrix/Corolla	20,280.00	177,112.00
Ford Fusion	17,082.00	147,472.00
Nissan Altima	18,491.00	147,072.00
Chevrolet Malibu	18,182.00	146,957.00
Hyundai Sonata	21,399.00	128,484.00

24/7 Wall St. looked at the sales of the top ten name plates in 2009, the top ten through August and an estimate for each for the balance of the year and used these to create a forecast for which cars and light trucks will be in the top ten in 2011.

The first important piece of data used in the analysis was the fact that it is very rare for the unit sales of any single model to fluctuate violently from year to year. It is rare that a new car like Ford’s Mustang will be launched as it was in 1964 and then become the best-selling car the following year.

Several models have had sharp growth in the last year. These include the Ford Fusion and Hyundai Sonata. The top ten list, however, continues to be dominated by several light pick-up trucks like the Ford F-series and a list of fuel-efficient cars from Japanese manufacturers, including the Honda. These cars have usually been models that were launched in the last three years and have done unusually well.

The full year 2010 estimate was created by the final number for the first eight months and an examination of the growth rate of these vehicles and those in the 11th through 15th position. Those models with unusually strong momentum on the bottom of the list could overtake the ninth or tenth cars from the January through August period.

The forecast for 2011 used a similar methodology to the methodology used to estimate the final four months of this year. Some vehicles have such tremendous annual sales that the odds that they will be out of the top 10 in 2011 are nearly impossible. That includes perennial market leaders like the Ford F-Series pick-up, the Toyota Camry, and Honda Accord. But, the weaker brands based on sales, those at the bottom of the 2010 top 10 list could be replaced. Those cars include the Chevy Malibu and Ford Escape.

Below are the 2009 domestic top ten vehicles sales for 2009, 2010, and the 2011 forecast. The 2011 numbers include the name of the vehicle, forecast sales for the year, the average base price of the vehicle, and the reason that each will do well. The sales for 2011 are based on the fact that the car market is expected to recover another 10% to 15% in unit sales next year.

1. Ford F-Series

The F-Series has been the top selling vehicle in the US for decades and the first series of the light truck launched in 1948. The popularity of light-trucks dates back to the earliest years of the automobile. Normally set up with only front seats and a large bed behind it, these products are powered by diesel or gas. They are highly useful to people who work in agriculture, building, and businesses that involve the hauling of light pay-loads from one place to another. The base F-150 retails for $23,000 dollars. 24/7 Wall St. forecasts that 535,000 F-series vehicles will be sold in 2011.