In March 2008, an analyst at Goldman Sachs predicted that the price of crude would see a “super spike” all the way to $200 per barrel. At the time, a barrel of crude cost just under $100, but had been rising for more than two years. The same analyst also predicted that oil prices would stick above $100 per barrel into 2011.

Oilman T. Boone Pickens said that oil would rise to $150 a barrel before the end of 2008, w
hile, at the same time, others predicted crude prices would fall to as low as $70 a barrel by the end of the year. Pickens came close, when prices went above $145 a barrel in July but stopped just short of his prediction. Similarly, the low-ball estimates were off by a factor of two. Oil closed 2008 just above $30 a barrel.

Forecasting oil prices depends a lot on the angle from which the forecaster views the crude oil market. All forecasts consider supply and demand, of course, but how much weight is assigned to these and other factors can vary widely. The very bullish $200 per barrel estimate was based heavily on the analyst’s assumption that the world had a virtually unquenchable thirst for oil. He didn’t consider the financial disaster that was just around the corner.

Are oil prices headed back to triple digits? In a recent note to investors, Goldman Sachs predicts that stronger-than-expected demand growth in 2010 will lead to more demand next year, resulting in a price of $100 per barrel by the end of 2011. Other large banks, including Barclays are also forecasting higher prices. Societe Generale, Deutsche Bank and JP Morgan are not quite as bullish on oil prices, according to the Financial Times, forecasting a top of about $90/b.

These estimates are not getting much support from the world’s largest independent energy traders. Vitol, the world’s largest, has said the price in 2011 will be between $70 and $85 a barrel. The FT says this view is shared “privately” by other large independent traders such as Glencore, Trafigura, Mercuria, and Gunvor.

We’ve put together two lists, one analyzing why oil prices won’t rise to the $100 per barrel level predicted by Goldman Sachs, and a second offering reasons why the triple digit price could be in our future.