The Ten States With Miraculous Recoveries In Unemployment

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Unemployment numbers  give very little information about how the recession has damaged the economies of cities and states which had relatively high unemployment before the recession. The media have not reported that there is a sharp recovery in unemployment rates in a few areas of the country. This recovery has occurred often in regions where joblessness has been the highest over the last three years.

The collapse
of the economy pushed the unemployment rate well into the double digits in some parts of the country. Fed Chair Ben Bernanke recently said it could take as much as four years for the U.S.  economy to get back to the normal rates of joblessness which represent a normal economic recovery. The improvements in some cities and states where unemployment is already high may take much longer to fall to 6% or 7%. That rate may never be reached in the hardest hit cities and states. This is one of the reasons exceptions to that rule are notable.

A look at unemployment by geography does not reveal much that Americans do not already know. The regions of the US which were once home to large factories and the seats of industrial America have jobless rates as high as 13% or 14%. Areas where real estate values grew quickly and then collapsed also have unemployment rates which are 30% or 40% above the national average.

The US unemployment rate was 9.4% in December which was just a slight decrease from November. There were only 103,000 jobs added last month. A number of analysts believe that the unemployment rate fell slightly because several hundred thousand people stopped their search for jobs. That has become a theme of this recession and the modest recovery. People lose hope. The number of weeks that the average unemployed person was out of work rose to 34 weeks in December, near an all-time high. That means many people have not had jobs for more than a year, and in many cases they believe they will not ever find one. Many of the long-term unemployed who do eventually find work have to take large salary cuts compared to their previous jobs.

Economist Nouriel Roubini recently argued that the American jobless rate placed in the larger context of people who are not categorized as “employed” or “unemployed”:

“While the headline (U-3) unemployment rate declined at the rate of 0.408% from 9.8% to 9.4%, the rate of decline in the U-6 underemployment rate was only 0.18% (from 17.0% to 16.7%) as the marginally attached labor force actually increased by 13.5% (from 1.13 million to 1.28 million) partially offsetting the decline in the headline labor force number, and we continue to rely on a good deal of employment that is part time for economic reasons.”

The regions where 24/7 Wall St. found sharp improvements in the jobless rate were dominated by the Great Lake states where the US manufacturing base was for years. Sharp drops in employment in the car and steel businesses and related sectors destroyed millions of jobs in the region. The reasons for the improvements include the fact that many people who could not find jobs have moved south to places like Texas to find work. Unemployment rates often rise when the jobless simply move away. But, there are more positive reasons that jobs have been added in places like Michigan, Illinois and Ohio.

Manufacturers have started to see more demand for their products as the industries they serve recover. That includes what were once the largest employers in the Midwest–Ford and GM. States in the Midwest have also begun to attract new industries and companies because of tax benefits and access to large areas where people are anxious to find work.

Some regions have not been as fortunate as the Midwest. Joblessness rose over the last year in Nevada. Tourism to place like Las Vegas has been slashed by the recession. Construction jobs which were also critical to the prosperity of that region have not returned as the value of Nevada real estate has continue to plummet

24/7 Wall St. also looked at states where unemployment has continued to worsen. Many of these states have very small populations and have had low unemployment rates during the last three years. Changes based on percentages may mean very little. Layoffs in one large industry or a few big companies might affect the workforces in these states significantly.

24/7 Wall St. analyzed the trends of unemployment of the large cities in these states. Urban unemployment is much higher in many states than it is in surrounding areas.  Some state capitals are in large cities. Government layoffs have started to rise. Big cities are also where the largest companies are concentrated. Some of these businesses continue to cut jobs because their sales have not recovered to 2007 levels.

This is the 24/7 Wall St. analysis of the unemployment rates and their impact on the ten states that have had the most improvement from November 2009 to November 2010 and the ten where the jobless situation has worsened the most.

The States That Have Gotten Worse

10. Kansas

November 2009 Unemployment: 6.3%

November 2010 Unemployment: 6.7%

Percent Change: 6.3%

Unemployed as of November 2010: 65,000

City where rate has increased the most: Lawrence: 5% to 6%, a 20% change.

Kansas’ unemployment rate has increased 6%. For some of the smaller cities, like Wichita, which experienced a 5% increase, the difference can be easily explained by a number of new people entering the labor force. Nevertheless, some of the larger cities, like Topeka, are seeing relative unemployment rate changes between 10% and 20%. Kansas had one of the highest levels of people leaving the state, partially because of the absence of jobs.

9. New Mexico

November 2009 Unemployment: 7.7%

November 2010 Unemployment: 8.2%

Percent Change: 6.5%

Unemployed as of November 2010: 78,500

City where rate has increased the most: Albuquerque: 7.6% to 8.6%, a 15.9% change.

New Mexico saw unemployment rise from 7.7% in November 2009 to 8.2% in November 2010. This equates to a loss of 4,400 jobs in sectors including professional business services, government jobs, retail, transportation and utilities. The city of Albuquerque was particularly hard-hit. The metropolitan region’s unemployment rate increased from 7.6% to 8.6%, a 15.9% change.