6. Grand Junction, Colorado
> Projected Price Increase Through 2011: +4.8%
> Unemployment Rate: 11.3%
> Median Family Income: $60,900
> Vacancy Rate: 7.3%
> Drop From Peak: -26.9%
Grand Junction is a generally affluent city. The area relies heavily on tourism along with the oil and natural gas industries. The recession hit the area especially hard. Unemployment was at an extremely low 3.2% in April 2000, the lowest rate among areas on this list. By February 2011, unemployment had increased to 11.3%, the second highest among areas on this list and 2.4 percentage points higher than the national average. Now that tourism is back up and Grand Junction has returned to being an oil boomtown, the job and housing markets are recovering.
5. Bellingham, Washington
> Projected Price Increase Through 2011: +4.9%
> Unemployment Rate: 9%
> Median Family Income: $59,000
> Vacancy Rate: 11.4%
> Drop From Peak: -13.8%
Bellingham, like Bremerton, is suburb of Seattle, which allows residents access to the city’s job market. Bellingham has several major hospitals and universities, and the abundance of steady institutional jobs has kept the population relatively economically stable. The city was one of the few to have vacancy rates drop between 2000 and 2010. Home prices are expected to increase 12.4% by the end of 2012.
4. Spokane, Washington
> Projected Price Increase Through 2011: +5.2%
> Unemployment Rate: 9.5%
> Median Family Income: $61,000
> Vacancy Rate: 7.1%
> Drop From Peak: -15.3%
Spokane is home to a number of commodities-based industries which are on the rebound from their recession-incurred lows. The city is a big center for forestry and agricultural business. Wood products, metal refineries, and food processing feed the local economy. The world’s largest producer of potash is also in Spokane. As the commodity industries recover further over the next year, home prices in the area are expected to increase 5.2%.
3. Tacoma, Washington
> Projected Price Increase Through 2011: +5.5%
> Unemployment Rate: 10%
> Median Family Income: $70,000
> Vacancy Rate: 7.8%
> Drop From Peak: -29.5%
Tacoma has a very stable middle-class population, with only a small percentage of families below the poverty line. The median home price in the fourth quarter of 2010 was $225,000 compared to a national average of $171,000. The biggest reason for the city’s projected recovery is the revival of the city’s main commodity-based industries: Tacoma has a major oil refinery center, and lumber and paper is also big in the city. The city’s home prices are expected to increase an average of 17.4% by the end of 2012.
2. Madera-Chowchilla, California
> Projected Price Increase Through 2011: +5.8%
> Unemployment Rate: 15.5%
> Median Family Income: $48,700
> Vacancy Rate: 11.8%
> Drop From Peak: 48.1%
Madera-Chowchilla is located in the center of the area hit hardest by California’s unemployment crisis. The unemployment rate is more than 5% greater than the national average of 8.9%. This is in large part due to the area, which is right around Stockton, and is in the part of the country that has suffered most from the construction recession. Roughly one-third of the area’s residents are living below the poverty line. Madera-Chowchilla has experienced the greatest decrease in home prices among the areas on this list – 48.1%, since its peak in 2006.
1. Mobile, Alabama
> Projected Price Increase Through 2011: +8.4%
> Unemployment Rate: 10.4%
> Median Family Income: $50,800
> Vacancy Rate: 11.1%
> Drop From Peak: 23.6%
Founded in 1702, Mobile is a major regional center for art, and features an opera, a ballet, and several art museums. The city has a long-standing, stable population, which will make room for an easier recovery than cities with migratory populations. Mobile is the largest city in the gulf region between St. Petersburg, Florida, and New Orleans. It saw some of the worst effects of both Hurricane Katrina and the BP Oil spill. As the impacts of both these disasters begin to subside, housing values have started to recover, and are projected to improve 8.4%, the fastest growth of any region in the country, by 2011. Home prices are projected to rise the following year an additional 7%, above the expected national average of 1.8%.
Douglas A. McIntyre, Michael B. Sauter, Charles B. Stockdale
