States That Do Not Believe in the Recovery

11. Idaho
> Economic confidence index: -42 (tied for 11th-lowest)
> Current unemployment: 8.4% (18th highest)
> Change in unemployment Dec. 2010 to Dec. 2011: -13.4%
> Median income: $43,490 (13th lowest)
> Poverty rate: 14.3%

From the third quarter of 2006 to the third quarter of 2011, home prices tumbled by more than 25% in Idaho — one of the biggest drops in the country. In the past year
alone, home prices have fallen by 8.3%, the second-largest decline among all states. This trend, according to Fiserv Case-Shiller’s projections, is expected to turn around by the third quarter of 2012. However, Idaho residents’ perception of the economy is changing very little. Of all the states’ economic confidence scores, Idaho’s has improved the least since 2008.

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10. Ohio
> Economic confidence index: -42 (tied for 11th-lowest)
> Current unemployment: 8.1% (21st highest)
> Change in unemployment Dec. 2010 to Dec. 2011: -14.7%
> Median income: $45,090 (17th lowest)
> Poverty rate: 14.8%

Between December 2010 and December of last year, the unemployment rate in Ohio fell from 9.5% to 8.1%. This 15% decline was the 11th-biggest in the country. Despite this improvement, state residents are among the most pessimistic when it comes to the national economy. According to Gallup’s poll, just 26.1% of state residents believe the economy is improving compared to the 28.8% that believe it nationally.

9. Florida
> Economic confidence index: -42 (tied for 11th-lowest)
> Current unemployment: 9.9% (6th highest)
> Change in unemployment Dec. 2010 to Dec. 2011: -17.5%
> Median income: $44,409 (15th lowest)
> Poverty rate: 15.0%

The recession hit Florida more than most states of the country. Since February 2008, the state’s unemployment rate has exceeded the national average. While the national rate was 8.5% in December 2011, Florida’s was 9.9%. From the third quarter of 2006 to the third quarter of 2011, home prices were just about halved in the state, falling by 49%, which is the third-largest decrease in the country. While in many regions of the U.S. the housing market is expected to improve over the next year, Florida’s is expected to experience further price decline of 8.6% by the third quarter of 2012.

8. Nevada
> Economic confidence index: -42 (tied for 11th-lowest)
> Current unemployment: 12.6% (the highest)
> Change in unemployment Dec. 2010 to Dec. 2011: -15.4%
> Median income: $51,001 (19th highest)
> Poverty rate: 13.0%

Arguably, no state was more severely affected by the housing crisis than Nevada. Between the third quarter of 2006 and the third quarter of 2011, home prices tumbled nearly 60%. Despite the huge losses already sustained in the housing market, prices are projected to fall by more than 14% over the next two years. The unemployment rate in December 2011 was 12.6%, the highest rate in the U.S. More than 57% of Nevada residents believe the U.S. economy is in poor shape, more than any other state. Coupled with the worst housing market and highest unemployment, it is perhaps surprising that Nevada’s confidence level is not even lower.

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7. Delaware
> Economic confidence index: -43 (tied for 3rd-lowest)
> Current unemployment: 7.4% (22nd lowest)
> Change in unemployment Dec. 2010 to Dec. 2011: -12.9%
> Median income: $55,847 (10th highest)
> Poverty rate: 11.3%

Delaware is a relatively wealthy state, with the 10th-highest median household income in the country and the 11th-lowest poverty rate. Despite these impressive numbers, residents currently have one of the most pessimistic views of the economy. As recently as 2010, the state had a better view of the economy. Between 2010 and 2011, Delaware saw the largest decrease in economic confidence among all states. Between the third quarter of 2010 and the third quarter of 2011, home prices decreased 5.5%, one of the largest decreases in the country during the period.

6. Montana
> Economic confidence index: -43 (tied for 3rd-lowest)
> Current unemployment: 6.8% (16th lowest)
> Change in unemployment Dec. 2010 to Dec. 2011: -8.1%
> Median income: $42,666 (11th lowest)
> Poverty rate: 14.6%

Montana’s unemployment rate of just 6.8% is the 16th lowest in the country. Home values in the state dropped just 4.5% between Q3 2006 and Q3 2011, the fourth-smallest decline over that time. However, the poverty rate is relatively high, at 14.6% of the population. Though median income is the 11th lowest in the U.S., it is offset by the low cost of living. Compared to most states, unemployment, housing and cost of living are fairly good. Despite being better off than most states, Montana has a relatively negative perception of the current economy. Compared to the 47.7% who believe the U.S. economy is in poor condition on a national level, 53.4% of the state’s population feels that way.