A senior economist at Citigroup, Willem Buiter, wrote a report in which he argues that there is a 90% chance that Greece will leave the eurozone over the next year to year-and-a-half. Among his observations:
We now believe the probability that Greece will leave EMU in the next 12–18 months is about 90 percent, up from our previous 50–75 percent estimate, and believe the most likely date is in the next 2–3 quarters.
Inspectors from the European Union, European Central Bank and International Monetary Fund will plow through Greece’s books during the next several days. Most experts on Greek finances believe they will find that the nation’s gross domestic product has dropped more quickly than forecast by the government, that its deficit has widened faster and that expenses have not been cut to the levels of austerity agreed upon. If these things are true, Greece may be pushed out before it can decide to leave.
Douglas A. McIntyre