Car and light truck sales in the United States are expected to rise by 5.7% in June to 1.5 million. Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F) sales are expected to rise less than that. However, the key to its performance, whether better or worse than the American average, is sales of its flagship F-150, which have slipped so far this year.

Kelley Blue Book (KBB), the car research experts, says overall Ford sales will rise 4.8% in June to 232,000. That will put it behind traditional market leader General Motors Co. (NYSE: GM) and just ahead of Toyota Motor Corp. (NYSE: TM). Pickup sales should help other car companies, particularly Chrysler Fiat Automobiles N.V. (NYSE: FCAU). According to Alec Gutierrez, senior analyst for KBB:

 Kelley Blue Book anticipates positive numbers from nearly all manufacturers in June 2015, but Fiat Chrysler Automobiles could see the largest year-over-year gains. The surge in popularity of utility and truck models this year has been beneficial for Fiat Chrysler’s Jeep and RAM brands, helping push the manufacturer to its highest U.S. market share since 2007.

This pickup sales increase has not helped F-150 sales, but Ford promises that will change as the production of its new truck, which includes aluminum alloy to cut weight, rises.

F-Series sales dropped 1.1% over the first five months of the year to 302,009. That makes it the top-selling vehicle in the United States by far. Well behind it in second place is the Chevy Silverado, with five-month sales of 224,274, up 13.8%.

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The test of F-150 sales will begin in June and stretch through the summer. Ford Chief Financial Officer Bob Shanks recently said that the ramp up of F-150 production was complete.

Now that Ford can produce what it believes will meet market demand, it has to prove that the demand will be sufficient to increase sales sharply. The bad news would be if F-150 sales continued to fall, or if Ford has to discount prices to push sales higher.

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