The analysts noted the richer second-quarter delivery mix the company reported on Monday. Boeing delivered 197 new commercial jets last quarter, well above the 181 it delivered in the second quarter of 2014 and the 184 it delivered in the first quarter of this year. Wells Fargo had forecast total second-quarter deliveries of 190.
Boeing delivered one more 737, one more 767 and one more 777 than the analysts had forecast. The company also delivered four more 787s than the analysts expected. Wells Fargo did not include any margin contribution for either 787s or 747s delivered during the quarter.
Wells Fargo continues to forecast a total of 754 commercial jet deliveries for the full year. Boeing has forecast 750 to 755 deliveries this year, well above last year’s total commercial deliveries of 723. The analysts said that they continue to forecast full-year EPS of $8.45 and assume that “the stronger Q2 is offset by slight reductions to our H2 delivery estimates.”
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For Boeing’s military deliveries, the analysts forecast a $49 million sequential increase in EBIT to $310 million. Wells Fargo also noted that the 787 production rate of 10 per month managed to deliver 34 Dreamliners in the second quarter, about 1.3 planes per month above that rate. The analysts say that this is “another sign that the production system for the [787] program is improving before the move to 12/month late in 2016.”
Wells Fargo puts a valuation range on Boeing stock of $163 to $166 a share. That works out to an implied upside of 16% to 18% based on Monday’s closing price of $140.52. Here is the analysts’ investment thesis: “The improving demand for air travel, combined with the need to replace thousands of inefficient, out-of-production planes, should support higher levels of aircraft production over the next several years.”
As we noted in our Monday look at Boeing’s second-quarter deliveries, the company handily delivered more aircraft last quarter than did arch-rival Airbus. The European plane maker delivered 304 planes in the second quarter, about 25% less than Boeing. However Airbus did write net new orders for 348 planes compared with 281 net new orders for Boeing.
Boeing’s stock traded up less than 0.1% Tuesday morning, at $140.59 in a 52-week range of $116.32 to $158.83. The consensus price target for Boeing stock is $163, and the street-high target is $196.
ALSO READ: US Defense Department Updates National Military Strategy
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