Military

If Boeing Delivers 737 MAX Early, Can It Repeat With the 777X?

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Ever since Boeing Co. (NYSE: BA) announced in 2003 that it was building a new plane (the 787), the company’s performance seemed to be based on a model of overpromising and underdelivering. The new 737 MAX may change all that.

The company has promised to deliver the new single-aisle plane in the third quarter of 2017, but according to a report in The Wall Street Journal, Boeing has said that the new jets may begin deliveries as much as six months early.

If Boeing can actually manage that, it would be a nearly historic achievement, not only for the company but for the industry. New airplanes are typically years late as the industry seems unable to provide a realistic timetable for introducing new planes.

For Boeing, if it can indeed deliver the 737 MAX early, that could be a big deal for the other two new jets the company is working on: the 787-10 and the 777X. The new dual-aisle, two-engine 777X is arguably more important to Boeing than any of its other new jets.


The company announced last week that it is cutting production on the plane from more than eight per month to seven, and that production cut hit its guidance hard and investors sent the stock to a new 52-week low. The problem is maintaining cash flow from the current 777 until the 777X is ready for delivery. If Boeing can accelerate its schedule on the 777X, the company has a much better chance of increasing its revenue and cash flow sooner rather than later.

The other advantage to getting the 777X out the door early is that deferred production costs won’t climb to the nosebleed levels that characterize the 787. Boeing now carries $28.5 billion on its books for deferred production costs on the 787, and some experts have even wondered if the company will ever make enough money on the plane to recover those costs.

The 777X is a much less complicated program. With the 737 MAX, Boeing is learning that changing a few things offers a much better chance to meet cost and delivery targets than changing lots of things as the company did with the 787. As Leeham News commented in a report on the 737 MAX, Boeing may have finally learned to underpromise and overdeliver. We’ll see.

Boeing’s shares closed Monday at $121.56 and fell to $117.52 on Tuesday. In morning trading Wednesday, shares were up about 0.2%, at $117.72 in a 52-week range of $115.02 to $158.83.

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