Ford Sales Expected to Plunge Nearly 11% in October

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Ford Motor Co.’s (NYSE: F) problems, which have pushed its stock price relentlessly down, will continue in October. The company’s sales are expected to plunge 10.8% from the same month in 2015. The fall is enough so that Ford will lose the number two spot in the U.S. market to Toyota Motor Corp. (NYSE: TM). Ford is expected to sell 190,000 cars, against Toyota’s 194,000, which would be a drop of 4.9%.

Kelley Blue Book (KBB), which issued the Ford numbers as part of its monthly forecast, also provided data for the entire industry:

New-vehicle sales are expected to decline 6 percent year-over-year to a total of 1.36 million units in October 2016, resulting in an estimated 17.9 million seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) …

Tim Fleming, an analyst for KBB, commented:

Kelley Blue Book expects October 2016 sales to come in at a robust 17.9 million SAAR; however, due to two fewer selling days and an extremely strong October 2015, there will be volume declines across the industry. Higher incentives are helping boost sales, but with transaction prices at an all-time high and great consumer demand for SUVs and trucks, which are more profitable, automakers can afford the extra incentives. Still, discipline with incentives and moderating production will go a long way in preserving residual values in the next few years.

In other words, the U.S. market should remain very profitable for most of the global manufacturers.

The other car company that is expected to post a huge drop is Volkswagen, the sales of which are expected to fall 9.9% to 47,000. Fleming said:

Now, more than one year removed from the announcement of the company’s diesel scandal, Volkswagen is still losing market share in the United States, and Kelley Blue Book expects volume declines to approach 10 percent in October 2016. Upcoming SUV launches, including the redesigned Tiguan and an all-new three-row SUV, will certainly help Volkswagen’s car-dominant lineup once they hit the market, and that can’t come soon enough for Volkswagen dealers. Importantly, the Audi and Porsche brands have not been affected by the scandal, as sales for those two brands are up year-over-year.

The only major car company expected to hold its own and pick up meaningful market share is already hot Subaru. Its sales are only expected to drop 51,000:

Subaru of America continues to shine brightly in the industry, although analysts expect October totals to be flat year-over-year due to the two fewer selling days this October. While Subaru’s sales growth streak of 58 consecutive months might be in jeopardy this month, it is still remarkable to note that Subaru has the fastest-selling inventory, lowest days’ supply and the least incentives of any major brand.

The balance of the industry:

Sales Volume 1 Market Share 2
Manufacturer Oct-16 Oct-15 YOY % Oct-16 Oct-15 YOY %
General Motors (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC) 247,000 262,993 -6.1% 18.2% 18.1% 0.0%
Toyota Motor Company (Lexus, Scion, Toyota) 194,000 204,045 -4.9% 14.3% 14.1% 0.2%
Ford Motor Company (Ford, Lincoln) 190,000 213,105 -10.8% 14.0% 14.7% -0.7%
Fiat Chrysler (Chrysler, Dodge, FIAT, Jeep, RAM) 180,000 195,545 -7.9% 13.2% 13.5% -0.2%
American Honda (Acura, Honda) 125,000 131,651 -5.1% 9.2% 9.1% 0.1%
Nissan North America (Infiniti, Nissan) 114,000 116,047 -1.8% 8.4% 8.0% 0.4%
Hyundai-Kia 104,000 110,049 -5.5% 7.6% 7.6% 0.1%
Subaru of America 51,000 51,629 -1.2% 3.8% 3.6% 0.2%
Volkswagen Group (Audi, Volkswagen, Porsche) 47,000 52,157 -9.9% 3.5% 3.6% -0.1%
Total 3 1,360,000 1,451,703 -6.3%
1 Historical data from OEM sales announcements
2 Kelley Blue Book Automotive Insights
3 Includes brands not shown