Car Sales Expected to Post Record November

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November U.S. car and light truck sales should dampen anxiety that the industry has peaked. New 2017 models have reached dealers after all. And interest rates are low enough to continue the option of attractive loan rates.

New research shows November cars sales will break a very old record:

New-vehicle sales are expected to increase 4 percent year over year to a total of 1.37 million units in November 2016, resulting in an estimated 17.7 million seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), according to Kelley Blue Book, the vehicle valuation and information source trusted and relied upon by both consumers and the automotive industry. This will be the highest November sales total on record, beating the previous record of 1.32 million units in November 2001. New vehicle sales are expected to increase 4 percent year-over-year to a total of 1.37 million units in November 2016, resulting in an estimated 17.7 million seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), according to Kelley Blue Book. This will be the highest November sales total on record, beating the previous record of 1.32 million units in November 2001.

The annual sales rate is also a tremendous jump from the 10 million sales trough of 2009.

Among the weakest-performing manufacturer by far, Fiat Chrysler (NYSE: FCAU) sales are expected to drop 4.5% to 168,000. White hot Subaru sales are expected to continue with a forecast increase of 15% to 53,000. Tim Fleming, analyst for Kelley Blue Book, commented:

Subaru of America could report another record-breaking month in November, and Kelley Blue Book projects 15 percent year-over-year growth. Subaru crossovers like the Outback and Crosstrek will lead the way and should rise more than 20 percent, while their cars will likely be down.  However, Subaru will soon receive a boost from the redesigned Impreza hitting dealerships in December.

KBB’s summary of the industry:

  Sales Volume 1 Market Share 2
Manufacturer Nov-16 Nov-15 YOY % Nov-16 Nov-15 YOY %
General Motors (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC) 249,000 229,296 8.6% 18.2% 17.4% 0.7%
Toyota Motor Company (Lexus, Scion, Toyota) 195,000 189,517 2.9% 14.2% 14.4% -0.2%
Ford Motor Company (Ford, Lincoln) 187,000 186,889 0.1% 13.6% 14.2% -0.6%
Fiat Chrysler (Chrysler, Dodge, FIAT, Jeep, RAM) 168,000 175,974 -4.5% 12.3% 13.4% -1.1%
American Honda (Acura, Honda) 126,000 115,441 9.1% 9.2% 8.8% 0.4%
Nissan North America (Infiniti, Nissan) 116,000 107,083 8.3% 8.5% 8.1% 0.3%
Hyundai-Kia 113,000 105,560 7.0% 8.2% 8.0% 0.2%
Subaru of America 53,000 46,070 15.0% 3.9% 3.5% 0.4%
Volkswagen Group (Audi, Volkswagen, Porsche) 47,500 45,032 5.5% 3.5% 3.4% 0.0%
Total 3 1,370,000 1,314,794 4.2%
1 Historical data from OEM sales announcements
2 Kelley Blue Book Automotive Insights
3 Includes brands not shown