The financial damage is massive and the question boils down to how far the contagion can spread throughout Europe (and elsewhere).  Austerity measures throughout Europe are now backfiring.  France put in Hollande as a move back to the left as Sarkozy’s austerity measures were just going to be too great for the population to want.  Inflation before cutbacks!  Live well today, let the kids figure it out when hey get older!  Hell, even The Netherlands could not agree on a budget and they have their act together financially just about as well as any of the top nations.  Angela Merkel’s party suffered a regional election loss in recent weeks as well.

Greece will not likely be the only casualty here.  Portugal, Spain, and Ireland are all at risk.  Sinn Fein has been making policy statements about austerity and the Euro inclusion and went as far as issuing a video to call for a NO vote in the Austerity Treaty referendum.  Spain has a serious capital shortfall in its banks if the reports over the size of the property value losses versus face value of loans is even only one-third true.  Portugal is just totally irrelevant to Europe, but it is upside down and at risk.  And Italy is just simply “too big to bail” with its debt and spending issues that lie ahead.

The fallout is running top to bottom… safe havens to PIIGS… We are seeing all the new 52-week lows come into play in some positions while many others are still above those recent lows.

iShares MSCI Germany Index (AMEX: EWG) is down 2.2% at $19.87 against a 52-week low $16.96; iShares MSCI France Index (AMEX: EWQ) is down 2.4% at $18.61 against a 52-week low of $17.88. The there is “the Euro currency ETF” via the CurrencyShares Euro Trust (AMEX: FXE) with a drop of 0.9% at $125.03 (new 52-week low) as the Euro is at the lowest point since July 2010.  iShares MSCI Italy Index (AMEX: EWI) is down 3.8% at $10.26 and only one-penny above the $10.25 52-week low.

Ireland… The Bank of Ireland (NYSE: IRE) is down 2% at $4.90 against a 52-week low of $3.99. The New Ireland Fund, Inc. (NYSE: IRL) is down 1.1% at $7.79 against a 52-week low of $6.49.

Greece… National Bank of Greece SA (NYSE: NBG) is flat at $1.52 against a 52-week low of $1.45; Global X FTSE Greece 20 ETF (AMEX: GREK) is down 3.5% at $9.99 at a new 52-week low (prior $10.25 low). The election in mid-June will likely be the key determining factor here.  If not, the situation is still not over and Greece is going to be an ongoing flight risk.

Spain… iShares MSCI Spain Index (AMEX: EWP) is down 3.3% at $22.81 and under the prior 52-week low of $22.87.  Banco Santander, S.A. (NYSE: STD) is down 3.5% at $5.58 against a 52-week low of $5.52 and Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A. (NYSE: BBVA) is down 4% at $6.02 against a 52-week low of $5.96.

Vanguard MSCI Europe ETF (AMEX: VGK) tracks the  MSCI Europe Index, which is made up of approximately 460 common stocks of companies located in 16 European countries-mostly companies in the United Kingdom, France, Switzerland, and Germany.  It is down 2.6% at $39.85 against a 52-week low of $38.40.  The SPDR EURO STOXX 50 (AMEX: FEZ) tracks the STOXX Europe 50 Index and it is down 2.9% at $26.93 against a 52-week low of $26.10.

This is sort of funny on the surface if you don’t think about the financial and human tragedy that is unfolding.  It is not exactly as though the global economy rose this much when they launched the Euro.  Little reward, massive pain!

Sadly, Europe is starting to feel like Latin America of the 1980s and early 1990s all over again.

JON C. OGG

We have seen that Blackrock will buy about $1 billion of the shares itself as part of a share repurchase plan.  Still, that leaves about $5 billion that the market will have to absorb and this comes at a time when it is an understatement to say that Main Street is not exactly hot on Wall Street investment banking and money management firms.

Barclays is unloading these shares before new Basel rules apply which would have forced the company to count the share stake as capital. The offering is being conducted by Barclays itself along with the firms of Morgan Stanley and BofA Merrill Lynch.  Barclays owns 32,178,505 shares of the series B convertible preferred stock and 3,031,651 common shares per the filing, and this comes to roughly a 19.6% economic interest in Blackrock.  The applicable percentage of ownership for the selling stockholder is based on 139,564,123 shares of common stock outstanding as of March 31, 2012.

Blackrock also has a filing for a note offering which will ultimately be led by Citigroup, J.P. Morgan, and by Wells Fargo Securities.  Blackrock shares were at $180 as recently as May 11 and the shares closed at $171.91 just this last Friday.  Shares closed at $167.73 on Monday and now shares are down another 1.2% to $165.86 in mid-day trading in New York.

Blackrock’s big issue here is that it rarely trades 1 million shares in a day, with only 8 trading days of 1 million or more shares in just the last three months and just ten trading sessions with 1 million shares or more in the prior three-month period.

Blackrock has traded in a range of $137.00 to $209.37 over the last 52-weeks.  The market value today is $29.8 billion, so this is going to be a large offering to absorb.

Dow Jones has listed that the secondary offering is set to price on Wednesday evening for Thursday trading.

JON C. OGG

Here is the huge option spike.  The January 2013 $15 Call Options last traded ad $1.85 per contract, but the volume is 17,401 contracts.  The prior open interest is a mere 338 contracts.  Keep in mind that this translates to a speculative bet on 1.74 million shares on a fully leveraged basis if you count one contract as being the equivalent to 100 shares.

As far as the volume spike in the shares, we have seen over 730,000 shares traded as of 11:07 AM EST and the gain is 8.4% to $13.43.  The stock hit a low of $12.25 today and the prior 52-week range is $12.20 to $31.34.  An average day’s volume in Seabridge is only 322,000 shares.

The Yahoo! Finance description of the company is that Seabridge is a development stage company which engages in the acquisition, exploration, and development of mineral properties, primarily gold properties located in North America.

Seabridge is based in Toronto, Canada and here is its own description: “Seabridge Gold’s resource base of gold, copper and silver is one of the world’s largest. Our principal projects are located in Canada. Our objective is to grow resource and reserve ownership per share. Our risk-reducing strategy: acquire North American deposits; expand them through exploration; move them to reserves through engineering; and sell or joint venture them to established producers for mine construction and operation.”

JON C. OGG

At issue may be a stock market stabilization, or perhaps it is a stabilization aimed solely at the commodities and those companies which profit from either the rise of commodity prices or the rise of the demand for those commodities. It was just yesterday evening that Dennis Gartman of the Gartman Letter was talking up gold miners as his method of choice to play the current bounce in gold.

To show just how much implied upside there is we found some large cap gold stocks that have upside of about 100% and many of the big players have implied upside of well over 50%.  The key ETFs for these miners show just how widespread the damage was during the last sell-off.  The Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (AMEX: GDX) trades at $43.35 against a 52-week trading range of $39.08 to $66.98 and that is down about 35% as a group from the highs.  The Global X Silver Miners ETF (AMEX: SIL) trades at $18.00 against a 52-week range of $16.54 to $29.05 and that is down almost 38% from its high in the last year.

We included the implied dividend yields but due to foreign issues and ADRs causing currency translations and due to some payouts not being quarter like U.S. companies do, we would urge you to only consider the dividend as a footnote and something you should be verifying on your own.  Besides that, who buys gold (and silver) miners because of their dividend yields only?

We have evaluated the following large-cap gold stocks: Barrick Gold Corporation (NYSE: ABX); Goldcorp Inc. (NYSE: GG); Newmont Mining Corp. (NYSE: NEM); AngloGold Ashanti Ltd. (NYSE: AU); Kinross Gold Corporation (NYSE: KGC); Agnico-Eagle Mines Ltd. (NYSE: AEM); Gold Fields Ltd. (NYSE: GFI); Yamana Gold, Inc. (NYSE: AUY); IAMGOLD Corp. (NYSE: IAG); Harmony Gold Mining Co. Ltd. (NYSE: HMY); Eldorado Gold Corp. (NYSE: EGO); and Royal Gold, Inc. (NASDAQ: RGLD). We have covered also two of the larger silver players of Silver Wheaton Corp. (NYSE: SLW) and Pan American Silver Corp. (NASDAQ: PAAS).

Barrick Gold Corporation (NYSE: ABX) traded at $37.60 and has a market value of $37.6 billion.  The consensus target price from Thomson Reuters is $59.10 and the 52-week range is $34.82 to $55.95.  Barrick has a dividend yield of 2.2%. The implied upside to the consensus target: 57% but we would note that the target is above the 52-week high.

Goldcorp Inc. (NYSE: GG) traded at $34.90 with a market value of $28.2 billion.  The consensus target price from Thomson Reuters is $60.42 and the 52-week trading range is $32.16 to $56.31.  Goldcorp’s most recent yield was listed as 1.6%. The implied upside to the consensus target is 73% but we would note that the consensus target is still above the 52-week high.

The Jamaican bank’s ordinary shares already are listed on the Jamaica Stock Exchange and on the Trinidad and Tobago Stock Exchange under the symbol “NCBJ,” and it has been authorized to list the shares on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol “NCJ.”

Here is what the bank noted about its share prices on the local exchanges:

On May 18, 2012, the closing price of our ordinary shares on the JSE was J$23.69 per ordinary share, which is equivalent to US$0.27 per ordinary share, based upon an exchange rate of J$87.6425 to US$1.00 on that date. On May 18, 2012, the closing price of our ordinary shares on the TTSE was TT$1.93 per ordinary share, which is equivalent to US$0.30 per ordinary share, based upon an exchange rate of TT$6.3891 to US$1.00 on that date.

As far as the underwriters, JP Morgan is listed as the Global Coordinator and Joint Bookrunner, and Macquarie Capital is listed as the joint bookrunner; co-managers are Canaccord Genuity and CIBC.

This banking outfit claims to be Jamaica’s largest and most profitable banking and financial services group, based on consolidated total assets at September 30, 2011 and net profit for fiscal year 2011. It said:

For our fiscal year ended September 30, 2011, and the six months ended March 31, 2012, we had return on average shareholders’ equity of 23.86% and 15.55%, respectively, and, as of December 31, 2011, we had a 29.1% share of the Jamaican banking and financial services market regulated by the Bank of Jamaica, as measured by consolidated total assets.

NCBJ’s filing noted that it has 38 full-service branches and four agencies, its ATMs accounted for 34.7% of all ATM transactions in Jamaica for the six months ended March 31, 2012, and it had over 9,000 POS machines, representing 66.7% of all POS machines in Jamaica.

FULL IPO (F-1) FILING

JON C. OGG

So the question is, ahead of a summit aimed at putting up fences in Europe to contain problems can the banks really make it.  We have heard all sorts of new stories and rumors and frankly it is hard to know what is posturing, what is malarkey, and what is reality.  Some talk about bank guarantees is out there, and other chatter is on deeper assistance.  And what about lending directly to banks but not the nations? Reuters has a speech today worth a read that underpins some of the problems and hopes for Europe given by ECB policymaker Joerg Asmussen.

A look at the banking ADRs today signals that the bank issues “may” be manageable for Greece or Ireland.  The problem is that this could just be a short-covering head fake too.  The ADRs for Spain are still in the red.

National Bank of Greece SA (NYSE: NBG) is up 4% at $1.56 against a 52-week range of $1.45 to $7.65.  The Bank of Ireland (NYSE: IRE) is up 3.8% at $4.93 against a 52-week range of $3.99 to $17.50.

Banco Santander, S.A. (NYSE: STD) is down 1.2% at $5.70 against a 52-week range of $5.52 to $11.92; Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A. (NYSE: BBVA) is down 1.1% at $6.19 against a 52-week range of $5.96 to $12.13.  An IIF report on loan losses is holding these banks down today.

And what about broader exposure?  The ADR of Deutsche Bank AG (NYSE: DB) is up 2.6% at $36.95.

Barclays PLC (NYSE: BCS) is technically not even a part of the Euro-woes as far as sovereignty, but it would be absolutely naive to think they have no exposure.  Ditto for UBS AG (NYSE: UBS) in Switzerland.  Barclays is up 2.6% at $11.44 against a 52-week range of $8.38 to $18.40; and UBS is up 1.6% at $11.44 against a 52-week range of $10.41 to $19.62.

JON C. OGG

First Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR) has been a total disaster, but short covering and bottom-fishing traders are snapping up shares.  After an all-time low of $13.75 this week, shares recovered to $14.92 on Thursday on the most active volume in two weeks (over 10 million shares).  Shares are indicated above $15.00 for Friday but we will see if this can hold. SunPower Corporation (NASDAQ: SPWR) recovered more than 10% on Thursday after a recent low of $4.94 with a close of $5.59 on over 4 million shares (most since Feb 17 at 7.3 million shares).

One potential problem to consider is that the tariffs could inadvertently impact some of the U.S. producers of solar panels as well.  The issue is that many components involved in making these PV panels also come from China.

Suntech Power Holdings Co. Ltd. (NYSE: STP) is a loser in this tariff effort.  Shares were at $2.60 just last Friday and the ADRs closed down at $2.13 on Thursday.  Shares are indicated higher on Friday but we will have to see how it pans out.  Trina Solar Limited (NYSE: TSL) is another loser with its ADR closing at $6.08 Thursday after having been at $7.50 just last Friday.

LDK Solar Co., Ltd. (NYSE: LDK) closed lower on Thursday at $2.91, but this is actually in-line with prices just last Friday and its 52-week range is $2.54 to $7.90.

GT Advanced Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ: GTAT) is often lost in the shuffle as it is on the technology side of the solar PV process.  It is also in LED technology.  Shares closed down at $4.49 on Thursday against a 52-week low of $4.24.  The 12 million shares traded on Thursday was the highest trading volume seen since last August.

If you really want to know what the trend is on a global-solar basis, just follow the Guggenheim Solar (AMEX: TAN).  This ETF closed down yet again at $18.35 on Thursday after closing at $19.21 the prior day and against a $20.61 close last Friday.

Unfortunately, the solar sector has its share of woes and pain.  Austerity, expiration of tax credits, a lack of cost-effectiveness, and other issues are going to be present for the time being whether tariffs exist or not.

JON C. OGG

Dangdang said it expects second quarter revenue of about $187.5 million, substantially lower than the consensus estimate of $202.5 million. As with first quarter results, revenue continues to grow by 50% or better year-over-year, but that’s not good enough. Renren Inc. (NYSE: RENN), China’s answer to Facebook, posted higher revenue in the first quarter, but costs soared 90% and the company’s forecast came in lower than the consensus estimate.

SINA Corp. (NASDAQ: SINA), which owns the country’s largest Twitter-like site Weibo, showed significant growth in its first quarter results as well, but it forecast higher costs and continued weakness in advertising as weighing down future results. Sohu.com Inc. (NASDAQ: SOHU), China’s third largest search engine, also forecast weak advertising sales for the second quarter. China’s search engine leader, Baidu Inc. (NASDAQ: BIDU), recently shuttered an e-commerce competitor to Dangdang and launched its own low-cost Android-based phone as the company continues to extend its reach beyond search. Baidu forecast lower-than-expected second quarter revenues as well.

Youku Inc. (NYSE: YOKU), a YouTube look-alike, is scheduled to announce results after markets close today. The company is expected to post an EPS loss of -$0.21 on revenue of $41.2 million. Another Internet video player, Tudou Holdings Ltd. (NASDAQ: TUDO) is scheduled to announce results next Monday and is expected to post an EPS loss of -$0.88 on revenue of $21.75 million.

China’s Internet users now number more than 550 million, according to a report at Mashable, but the annual growth rate has tumbled from a mind-boggling 50%+ to around 12%. And China trails only the US in the number of Internet shoppers, with 145 million people having made online purchases last year. The average number of purchases per month per customer is 8.4, well-above the second place US, where a customer averages 5.2 purchases a month.

But Chinese Internet companies have had a difficult time translating these numbers into yuan. The prevailing view among analysts appears to be that the revenue dam will burst real soon now, but not a single one of these companies has a higher share price today than it did a year ago. Dangdang is down a whopping -68% over the past 12 months and both SINA and Renren are off more than -50%. Baidu, which has lost just -9% in the past year, is the best performer. That’s a pretty sorry showing. Expecting this to change anytime soon may be wishful thinking.

Shares of Dangdang are off -15% in the early afternoon today, at $6.36 in a 52-week range of $4.11-$22.45. Shares of the other Chinese Internet players are also down this afternoon, but most by less than -3%.

Paul Ausick

National Bank of Greece SA (NYSE: NBG) appears to be challenging all-time lows on an adjusted basis as shares are down 12% at $1.51 in active trading.  The Global X FTSE Greece 20 ETF (AMEX: GREK) is down 1.9% at $10.90 and this hit a new low today as Greek shares have reportedly hit lows not seen in years and years.

What is interesting is that Coca-Cola Hellenic Bottling Company S.A. (NYSE: CCH) is actually up 5.3% at $16.25 against a 52-week trading range of $14.75 to $27.40.  This outfit is the bottler of The Coca-Cola Company’s products located in Athens which distributes some 90 brands (including Coke) up into parts of the developed nations in Europe and into Eastern Europe and a few other select nearby markets.

We are seeing a mixed move in other banks in the lands of the PIIGS in ADR trading in New York. The Bank of Ireland (NYSE: IRE) is up 4% at $5.13; Banco Santander, S.A. (NYSE: STD) is down 1.5% at $5.72; and Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A. (NYSE: BBVA) is down 0.7% at $6.24.

Here is a comment from a speech from ECB President Mario Draghi today: “Before concluding, let me comment briefly on the difficult situation in Greece. Since the Treaty does not foresee anything on exit, this is not a matter for the ECB to decide. While the ECB will continue to comply with the mandate of keeping price stability over the medium term in line with Treaty provisions and preserving the integrity of our balance sheet, I want to state that our strong preference is that Greece will continue to stay in the euro area.”

Keep in mind a report from Reuters yesterday from Italian Industry Minister Corrado Passera saying that the Euro could survive even if Greece were to leave the union’s single currency. Trusting anything from any minister in Italy is a hard issues when you consider that Italy is one of the PIIGS and is a larger problem for the Euro than all other four PIIGS combined.

This is one of those situations where wording on headlines has to be closely watched… and interpretation depends upon many things.  Traders and investors will shoot first and ask questions later.

JON C. OGG

This may be a mixed blessing, but the number of mobile posts has now passed its desktop use.  Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) devices using iOS amounted to roughly 33% of Weibo’s mobile traffic.

SINA’s growth news comes at a great time, because shares were only about 10% above the 52-week low.  After closing at $51.68, and against a 52-week trading range of $46.86 to $128.17, shares are trading up 11% at $57.57.

The news is interesting because the company warned that future results might be dragged down because of the increased investment in Weibo.  The company even noted that another operational loss may be expected in the second quarter. Another warning was that the Chinese advertising market is expected to remain weak.

As a reminder, SINA makes up more than 8% of the current weighting in the Global X Social Media Index ETF (NASDAQ: SOCL).

Shares of Renren Inc. (NYSE: RENN), which is called the Facebook-equivalent of China, are up 4.5% at $5.84 this morning.  RenRen makes up almost 4.2% of the Social Media ETF.

JON C. OGG