Earnings growth for the reporting retailers is up too, by 11.8%. Excluding Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT) due to its size, Retail Metrics reckons that its 120 retailers will show profit growth of 12.2% in the first quarter. Including Walmart, profits will rise 13.8%.

The best profit growth is expected in the recreational sector, with Dick’s Sporting Goods Inc. (NYSE: DKS) and Hibbett Sports Inc. (NASDAQ: HIBB) leading the way a 40%+ earnings gain. Home furnishing retailers are expected to post 40% gains, led by Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. (NASDAQ: BBBY) and Williams-Sonoma Inc. (NYSE: WSM). Footwear retailers are tabbed to grow profits 31%, following huge gains at Brown Shoe Co. (NYSE: BWS) and Footlocker Inc. (NYSE: FL).

The worst performing sector is projected to be consumer electronics, with teen apparel stores the only other retailing sector expected to post overall losses. Best Buy Co. Inc. (NYSE: BBY) and GameStop Corp. (NYSE: GME) are the big players here. Teen apparel retailers like Wet Seal Inc. (NASDAQ: WTSLA), Gap Inc. (NYSE: GPS), and Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (NYSE: ANF) have struggled with same-store sales and revenues, as well as earnings.

Paul Ausick

The dividend will be payable on July 13, 2012, to stockholders of record on June 29, 2012, with an ex-dividend date of June 27, 2012.

As far as how this dividend compares to the other large apparel makers, this is as follows: V.F. Corporation (NYSE: VFC) has close to a 2.1% dividend yield and Columbia Sportswear Company (NASDAQ: COLM) has a 1.9% yield.  Having a 1% or 2% dividend might not sound huge on the surface when you consider the DJIA components and other dividend growers, but most of the large apparel companies either do not pay a dividend or they have a low yield.   Accessories maker Coach, Inc. (NYSE: COH) has a 1.8% yield. Even the great sports apparel and equipment maker Nike Inc. (NYSE: NKE) pays only a 1.4% yield to investors.

Maybe a 1.1% dividend yield now isn’t so bad after all.  The 5-year Treasury note pays only 0.74% and the 10-year Treasury pays 1.74% right now.

JON C. OGG

The specialty apparel retail outlet owner reported earnings of $0.23 per share versus the $0.20 per share estimate from Thomson Reuters. Revenues rose by more than 8.6% on a year over basis to $568.9 million. But Thomson Reuters was calling for revenues of more than $579 million.

It was the Urban Outfitters brand itself that led the sales as same-store sales there gained 6% and the direct-to-consumer sales rose 15% versus only 2% growth on the wholesale level. Despite the market treating this as a turnaround, the gross profit rate was down 131 basis points and the inventories rose by 13%. Selling, general and administrative expenses (SG&A) rose by 62 basis points.

Shares closed up 2.1% at $26.16 with a strong tape on the stock market today, but the after-hours reaction has shares up about 7% at $28.09 against a 52-week range of $21.47 to $33.90.

Today’s earnings report does not look or feel like a solid turnaround is coming on after the growth stalled significantly, but the market is treating it as “good enough” so far.

JON C. OGG

Over the last year we have witnessed shares falling from over $30.00 to almost $16.00 before the recent recovery.  The problem is that the bad news has not ended and the turnaround has yet to even really get started.  So why is there such highly unusual options trading activity in this stock?

If you look out to the July options trading, which is now only about two months out, there is some speculative call options activity.  Either someone is under the impression that something good is about to happen on the M&A front or they are expecting business to pick up this summer for Avon.

We have seen more than 37,000 contracts trade in the JULY $22 CALLS and the open interest before today was listed as only 5,999 contracts.  As a reminder, this is worth some 3.7 million shares if you count this options activity on a fully leveraged basis.  Avon trades an average of 7.7 million shares or so each day.

Joe Kunkle of OptionsHawk.com wrote in options trader lingo, “Avon Products (AVP) with 34,900 calls trading, initial buyers on $0.85 offer and IV jumping as blocks of 10K and 24,700 come in at $1.15, opening buyers.  Calls trading with a block of 1.357M shares of stock.”

The move today is with Avon down 3% at $20.36 and its 52-week range is $16.09 to $30.63.  Shares closed at $21.57 and the stock traded as low as almost $19.50 on two days this week.

If there are any rumors out there it is not evident at all in the stock.  Still, it is always interesting when you see very unusual options trading on Fridays when the options are not just hedging transactions.

JON C. OGG

For starters, an earlier Easter by 16 days pushed sales out of April into March.  Weak private sector employment data is not helping.  A very warm February and March likely acted as a pull-forward in sales away from April, and a later Mother’s Day most likely pushed some April sales out into May.  Another issue is the elevated but abating price of gasoline for consumers.  The gain of 8.7% in April 2011 is also making further gains more difficult by comparison.

The Monthly Retail Metrics economic diffusion index has rolled over and is now more negative data points than positive for the first time in months.  Here are some of the expected double-digit winners:

In large-format upscale apparel retail stores it is Nordstrom Inc. (NYSE: JWN) that is expected to have the highest marks with same-store sales gains of 6.2%.  Saks Inc. (NYSE: SKS) is expected to be up 5.6%

Lululemon Athletica Inc. (NASDAQ: LULU) may not be considered a ‘fashion’ retailer based upon its yoga and exercise theme, but the expectation is for gains of 21.8% for April same-store sales.

Michael Kors Holdings Ltd. (NYSE: KORS) sells through licensing but also has its own network of stores.  Retail Metrics sees it posting a massive 34.4% in same-store sales gains.

American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. (NYSE: AEO) is already seeing its shares urge by over 11% to $19.99 after it raised guidance based upon sales gains of 17% for stores open at least a year if you include the AEO Direct site.

Keep in mind that many retail outlets have seen two years or more of solid sales gains and that many of these stocks have risen excessively.  It might be getting easier to argue that the retail sector shares have risen enough that any bad news is not likely to be received too well by investors.

JON C. OGG

Earnings were only $0.20 EPS from $0.49 a year ago while sales somehow managed to rise 20% to $246.3 million.  The company is now expecting to lose -$0.60 EPS in the second quarter versus about -$0.39 that had been expected.

The previous 2012 forecast had been for flattish earnings in 2012, but now the company sees 2012 to be down 9% to 10% in earnings per share.  Many traders should have been anticipating this move, but the notion that the company had been quiet was giving some hope that things might not be too bad.

Deckers is paying a big price.  its shares closed rose 2.7% to $69.46 today against a 52-week trading range of $61.08 to $118.90; shares are down a whopping 18.6% to $56.80 in active trading in the after-hours.  If this hold, go ahead and count it as a 52-week low.

JON C. OGG

Some may consider a 20-year career end as a retirement, but it is obvious what is going on here.  While this is not being considered a firing or a shove-out in the press release, it is rare to have a CFO departure take place with just a 48-hour notice. If it was an orderly retirement the announcement would have been made at the end of the year.

The company even noted that Chief Operating Officer Michael Kramer will assume the Chief Financial Officer duties in an interim capacity while a search for a new CFO is conducted.

Ron Johnson thanked Dastugue “for his many years of service over his 20-year career” and wished him “all the best in his future endeavors.”

Mr. Kramer recently joined jcpenney in December 2011, after previously serving for three years as president and chief executive officer of Kellwood Company and he had previously served as chief financial officer at Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (NYSE: ANF) and had ‘coincidentally’ previously served as the chief financial officer of Apple Retail.  It would seem a natural fit that Kramer could have been CFO on his own merits and background.

It is obvious that Ron Johnson wants his own handpicked team from top to bottom here. This was a rapid departure, or a situation where Dastugue was pushed out.  Either way, we consider this a force-out move.  There is just no way around that argument from where we stand.

J.C. Penney shares are up 2.4% at $34.00 so far today but shares have not moved on the news.

JON C. OGG

The company itself is selling 17,559,248 shares of the total offering, with selling stockholders selling an additional 1,220,617 shares. Tumi plans to use the proceeds from the offering to purchase preferred shares from shareholders.

Credit Suisse, Goldman Sachs Group, and J.P.Morgan are leading the group of underwriters in this offering; William Blair and Jefferies are also in the syndicate. In 2011, Tumi’s sales were roughly $330 million and its operating income was more than $60 million.

The total number of shares being registered including the overallotment option is 21,596,845 shares.  The company will continue to be controlled by funds managed by or entities affiliated with Doughty Hanson & Co Managers Limited.

JON C. OGG

The headline of 8% same-store sales growth should have piqued interest from investors if you just read the headlines.  The problem is that Gap shares have risen to above $26.50 after closing out 2011 at $18.46.  Yep, that is a gain of more than 40% against a near-12% gain in the S&P over the first quarter and that is not normal.

Gap has been plagued by years of disappointing sales and today may be a relief news headline on the surface.  The breakdown in comparable store sales showed that Gap was up 9% in North America (versus -9% year ago), Banana Republic was up 5% in North America (versus -8% year ago), and Old Navy was up 11% in North America (versus -12% year ago).  International same-store sales rose 2% from a -9% reading a year ago.

RetailMetrics already told us earlier this week that the Gap was getting higher sales revisions. Thomson Reuters has a target of $1.84 EPS for Gap’s current fiscal year and that translates to 14.4-times expected earnings.  That is not really expensive, but it is no longer cheap when you consider a gain of more than 40% in the shares over the last quarter.

Gap shares are still considered a turnaround but investors need to know that the current share price is actually higher than it has been over any point in over ten years on a dividend-adjusted price basis.  Its market cap is back up to $13 billion as well.

The headline news looked great, but investors are likely to demand more months and quarters of outperformance against peers before they are willing to massively commit to a bet that Gap will go back and challenge its highs from over a decade ago.

Gap shares are down $0.06 at $26.59 and $26.59 is what is represented as the Thomson Reuters consensus price target as well.

JON C. OGG

Television interviews, or any interviews for that matter, are not exactly market moving events in most cases.  What is so unusual here is that Eddie Lampert almost never gives interviews and he really avoids the media spotlight in most cases.

So the speculation here is rather simple from the trader logic… Lampert is likely set to report some more big news between now and tomorrow’s interview that will be good for shareholders.  If Lampert shuns the media, chances would seem to be low that he would be coming on live for the opportunity to talk down the Sears hopeful story.

Keep in mind that Sears shares have also more than doubled since the start of 2012.  Shares are up 2% at $68.05 and the 52-week trading range is $28.89 to $87.66.

JON C. OGG