Provisions in the deal offer banks incentives to aid homeowners in the first 12 months after the deal is signed. There were also incentives for banks to use the Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP) and other government programs. Big banks that do business across many states from thousands of offices will have to process tens of thousands of mortgage applications. That is a formula for slow relief. “There were many small wrongs that were done here,” U.S. Housing and Urban Development Secretary Shaun Donovan said as the deal was announced. “This does not resolve everything. We will be aggressive about going after claims elsewhere.” But HUD hardly can control the pace at which the banks operate.

Home prices may not have reached bottom, but many economists think they will soon. The home value market may not recover for years, and in some regions it may never recover entirely. But housing experts expect a recovery to be well underway by 2014. The millions of homes with underwater mortgages may remain underwater, but as the activity of buyers increases and foreclosures drop, the ability to sell a house for more than the mortgage on it will increase. Mortgage rates that are at all-time lows should help the sales process across the nation.

Many homeowners still will need help two or three years from now. The ones in the most financial distress cannot wait that long. And many of those with the burden of homes with underwater mortgages will have some relief two or three years from today as home prices slowly rise. In both cases, the money from the government settlement will be too late.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Jon Marino of PEHub.com noted that P.E. firms are hiring and referenced a follow-up report for BDO USA’s third annual private equity “PErspective” report… 57% of private equity executives increased professional staffing and 62% plan to hire again this year.  This is a complete reversal from the layoff waves of prior years.  Here is more detail from that report.

Whether you like millionaires or billionaires or hate them, the one aspect that is so unfairly portrayed about companies bought by private equity firms is as follows: Most businesses bought by private equity firms need to be turned around or need to be run better.  Sure, they get leveraged up and they scrap inefficient operations.  The dirty secret that private equity firms are not defending enough is that many of these companies would have headed for bankruptcy in the long-term if they had not stepped in.  If that results in a liquidation rather than a pure bankruptcy, guess how many jobs get lost at those companies… all of them, rather than some.

The business sector is not just a one-way street.  Companies hire workers in good times and most fire in bad times.  We even ran our own 2011 Layoff Kings.

JON C. OGG

We want to know what you think below.  Look at how much some banks have paid to settle overdraft charges and then decide in our poll below…. Should banks have overdraft fees???

So here are some recent settlements and other overdraft fee news…

J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) was asked by the U.S. District Court of Southern Florida in Miami to pay $110 million over a class suit for charging of inappropriate overdraft fees to its customers. Zions Bancorp. (ZION) was accused in late 2011 of improper overdraft fees over its policies in place from 2005 to 2010.

Bank of America Corporation (NYSE: BAC) and Commerce Bancshares Inc. (NASDAQ: CBSH) were ordered to make payments over unfair trade practices in overdraft situations: Commerce Banc paid $18.3 million; Bank of America was asked to pay $410 million to settle unfair overdraft fees charges.

Now go back to 2010. Wells Fargo & Co. (NYSE: WFC) was ordered to pay $203 million by a California court to compensate customers suing over unfair overdraft fees.

JON C. OGG

The prince is a very long-term investor in Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C).  He is also apparently its largest holder.  This evening he noted that he expects Citi to begin returning capital to shareholders soon.  The stress tests should be finished in March and the prince said is pushing for a dividend hike.  He even noted that he held a conversation with Citigroup CEO Vikram Pandit late last week and his opinion is that the new Citi is doing very well. 

Citi is one of the ‘too big to fail’ banks and it has paid only a one-cent dividend since it has gotten out from the TARP.  After a 1-for-10 reverse stock split, many investors have moved on.  The adjusted dividend back in 2007 was $5.40, but it is going to be quite some time before investors expect that to remain.

Thomson Reuters is predicting that Citi will have normalized earnings at $4.04 EPS in 2012 and $4.70 EPS in 2013.  If the bank is ever allowed to return 40% of its normalized earnings, Citi could pay out $1.60 or so per share in annualized dividends.  That is a big if, but at $33.30 it would generate a dividend yield of 4.8%.

Again, that IF is a really big ‘if’ based on the regulatory climate of today.  The one bank that is expected to be among the very first to raise the common stock dividend is J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM).  Its $0.25 per quarter dividend used to be $0.38 per quarter before the bubble burst.  We also expect a higher dividend coming down the pipe from Wells Fargo & Co. (NYSE: WFC) as its $0.12 per quarter dividend compares to $0.34 before the bubble burst.

JON C. OGG

The Fed Funds Futures are very different today from a week ago after Ben Bernanke and his minions at the FOMC predicted that rates would be “exceptionally low through at least the end of 2014.”  Prior to that, it was a mid-2013 promise.  The reality is the FOMC has no obligation to commit to any time frame and the late-2014 was a projection rather than a commitment.  Still, this was a ‘risk-on’ signal if there ever was one.

Fed Funds Futures are now showing a 100% chance of a rate hike in December 2013.  That is the first month where the price is under 99.75 and this is the first time in quite a while that a rate hike has been this close.  What is interesting is that there is still close to an 80% chance of a rate hike by August of 2013.  Should you panic?  Absolutely not.  The rate hike would just remove the 0.00% to 0.25% range up to a formal 0.25% Fed Funds Rate.

It is still all the way out to September of 2014 now before the Fed Funds Futures are calling for a 100% chance of a 0.50% Fed Funds Rate.

Daily rates can be seen here for Fed Funds Futures from the CME.

JON C. OGG

The surprise winner so far in 2012 after the first month is USG Corporation (NYSE: USG). then there are stocks like Bank of America Corporation (NYSE: BAC), Ingersoll-Rand plc (NYSE: IR), Moody’s Corporation (NYSE: MCO), Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC), Wells Fargo & Co. (NYSE: WFC), and American Express Co. (NYSE: AXP).  Yep, the other winners of these seven holdings are mostly tied to finance.

We have evaluated the performance to date (from FinViz.com) and added in some color on each.  We have also shown how the price compares to the 52-week highs or to the consensus price target as well, and included in some cases whether the position is substantial or not.

USG Corporation (NYSE: USG) is up 32.8% year-to-date and is actually Berkshire Hathaway’s top performing stock.  With so much interest in the bottoming out of housing at some point in 2012, it may not be that ridiculous even if the fundamentals have not changed all that much yet.  The concern here is that at $13.50 it now trades above the consensus $13.30 price target.  Buffett holds over 17 million USG shares.

Bank of America Corporation (NYSE: BAC) is up 32.4% year-to-date and the new large preferred position is back to where Warren Buffett doesn’t look foolish for dreaming up his investment in BofA while in the bath.  At $7.36 there is still plenty of upside to the $8.90 price target and this remains (and is expected to remain) well under book value.

Ingersoll-Rand plc (NYSE: IR) is up 15.5% year-to-date, not bad for what is usually a slower-moving company with a portfolio of industrial and commercial products.  At $35.18, it does not have much upside left to the consensus price target of $37.94 but it is still way off the 52-week high of $52.33.  Buffett’s position is way down from prior periods and is only 636,600 shares as of the last report.  This position just can’t move the entire Berkshire Hathaway Barometer too much.

Moody’s Corporation (NYSE: MCO) is up 11.6% year-to-date.  The credit rating agency has been a controversial position that Buffett has lightened up on through time.  At $37.60, it is close to the consensus price target of $39.60 and under the 52-week high of $41.93.  Buffett did lighten up a bit on this position but still holds roughly 28.4 million shares.

Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC) is up 9.5% year-to-date and is one of the news 2011 investments that Mr. Buffett hid.  It was also his first technology pick as far as pure hardware is concerned.  At $26.55, Intel is very close to its 52-week high of $27.00 and close to its consensus analyst price target of $27.17.

Wells Fargo & Co. (NYSE: WFC) is up 8.9% year-to-date and is up the least of the big money-center banks.  It is also the only one of the money-center banks trading above book value because the restructuring regulatory climate over future earnings will create the least amount of change at Wells Fargo. Buffett keeps adding here and now holds over 361 million shares as one of his biggest positions ever.

American Express Co. (NYSE: AXP) is up 7.7% year-to-date, which is lower than many financials. The recent earnings report showed improvement but perhaps a trend towards peaking of the improving credit metrics of AmEx customers.  Buffett’s position is roughly 151.6 million shares.

Berkshire Hathaway’s most recent holdings in entirety can be found here.

If you enjoyed the top analyst calls, you can sign up in the box below to join our morning email list to receive news directly in your inbox each morning. We include major analyst upgrades and downgrades, IPO and M&A news, special situation developments, observations on Warren Buffett and key market gurus, as well as special exclusive feature stories.

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While Facebook has said that it is choosing the “FB” stock ticker, it did not specify whether or not the NYSE or NASDAQ would get the listing.  Keep in mind that Mark Zuckerberg is where the buck stops if you evaluate the share structure.

Be advised that there is a dual-class of stock with A shares and B shares.  Each share of Class A common stock is entitled to one vote per share. Each share of Class B common stock is entitled to ten votes per share and is convertible at any time into one share of Class A common stock.

The underwriting group is as follows: lead book-runners are Morgan Stanley, J.P. Morgan, and Goldman Sachs; co-managers are BofA/Merrill Lynch, Barclays Capital, and Allen & Company.

BASIC STATS:

• 845 million monthly active users,
• 2.7 billion likes and comments per day,
• 250 million photos uploaded per day,
• and 100 billion friendships.
• The company also has 483 million daily active users.
• It also had roughly 3200 employees as of December 31.

Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT) is listed as a competitor and it is an owner, while Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) is not an owner and is listed as a key competitor.  Twitter is competitor.  As a reminder, GSV Capital Corporation (NASDAQ: GSVC) is an owner of stock as well.  Interpublic Group of Companies, Inc. (NYSE: IPG) still owns a small stake as well.

We are now finally getting to see at least some of the preliminary figures from Facebook to use for financial analysis:

• 2009 revenues $777M, $122M net income for shareholders;
• 2010 revenues $1.974B, $372M net income for shareholders;
• 2011 revenues $3.711B, $668M net income for shareholders.
• The company’s cash and marketable securities at the end of 2011 was $3.908 billion.

Zynga Inc. (NASDAQ: ZNGA) accounted for about 12% of 2011 total revenues for Facebook.

Mark Zuckerberg owns 28.4% of the total voting power, but he has a proxy over insider shares that gives him 56.9% of the total voting power.  Other big holders are James Breyer at 11.4% and Peter A. Thiel at 2.5%.  Large Class B share holders (1 million or more shares) are Sheryl Sandberg, David Ebersman, Mike Schroepfer. Theodore Ullyor, Marc Andreesson…

T. Rowe Price Associates, Inc. (NASDAQ: TROW) owns over 6 million class A shares and affiliates of Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE: GS) own over 65.9 million Class A shares.

As of December 31, 2011 there were outstanding:

• 117,097,143 shares of our Class A common stock held by approximately 110 stockholders;
• 1,758,902,390 shares of our Class B common stock held by approximately 1,070 stockholders;
• 258,539,434 shares issuable upon exercise of outstanding stock options;
• 378,772,184 shares subject to outstanding restricted stock units (RSUs).

RISK FACTORS AS FOLLOWS:

• “If we fail to retain existing users or add new users, or if our users decrease their level of engagement with Facebook, our revenue, financial results, and business may be significantly harmed;”
• “We generate a substantial majority of our revenue from advertising. The loss of advertisers, or reduction in spending by advertisers with Facebook, could seriously harm our business;”
• “Growth in use of Facebook through our mobile products, where we do not currently display ads, as a substitute for use on personal computers may negatively affect our revenue and financial results;”
• “Facebook user growth and engagement on mobile devices depend upon effective operation with mobile operating systems, networks, and standards that we do not control;”
• “We may not be successful in our efforts to grow and further monetize the Facebook Platform;”
• “Our business is highly competitive, and competition presents an ongoing threat to the success of our business;”
• “Improper access to or disclosure of our users’ information could harm our reputation and adversely affect our business;”
• “Our business is subject to complex and evolving U.S. and foreign laws and regulations regarding privacy, data protection, and other matters. Many of these laws and regulations are subject to change and uncertain interpretation, and could harm our business;”
• “Our CEO has control over key decision making as a result of his control of a majority of our voting stock;”
• “The loss of Mark Zuckerberg, Sheryl K. Sandberg, or other key personnel could harm our business;”
• “We anticipate that we will expend substantial funds in connection with tax withholding and remittance obligations related to the initial settlement of our restricted stock units (RSUs) approximately six months following our initial public offering;”
• “The market price of our Class A common stock may be volatile or may decline, and you may not be able to resell your shares at or above the initial public offering price;”
• “Substantial blocks of our total outstanding shares may be sold into the market as “lock-up” periods end, as further described in “Shares Eligible for Future Sale.” If there are substantial sales of shares of our common stock, the price of our Class A common stock could decline.”

Again, the Top 17 IPOs to Watch in 2012 is here.

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The full S-1 SEC FILING is here.  PS… The traffic to the SEC.gov website was severely limited for almost an hour due to excessive traffic flooding the site due to readers wanting to read the Facebook S-1.

Keating has been a Director of the Group Finance.  The strategy change is to effect a split in the Irish and U.K. Retail Division into separate units for each country.  Each unit will be led by separate chiefs and both chiefs will be members of the group executive committee.  U.K. Retail will be led by Des Crowley; Ireland Retail will be led by Liam McLoughlin. The new structure’s implementation date is expected to be in mid-March of 2012.

Shares at the local level in Dublin were up 5.2% on last look, but the ADRs in New York were up 3.1% at $6.46 against an adjusted 52-week range of $3.99 to $27.00 if you account for the reverse split.

Our take: This could lead to more of a break-up or allow asset sales more easily down the road.  It certainly is not growth ambitions, but whatever adds to survival chances right now is what matters the most.

JON C. OGG

FULL PRESS RELEASE FROM THE P.R. DEPT. BELOW:

The Governor and Company of the Bank of Ireland (the “Bank of Ireland”)
1 February 2012

Bank of Ireland Announces Board and Executive Management Changes

Bank of Ireland has today announced changes to its Group Structure and to its Senior Executive Team.

Board Change
Andrew Keating has been appointed an Executive Director of Bank of Ireland and Group Chief Financial Officer with immediate effect, replacing John O’Donovan who has retired from that role.  Andrew was formerly Director of Group Finance where he spearheaded a major transformation of the Finance Division in the Bank of Ireland Group.  He joined Bank of Ireland in 2004, prior to which he held a number of senior finance roles with Ulster Bank having qualified as a chartered accountant with Arthur Andersen.

Andrew is also a Director of Bristol & West plc, which is a wholly owned subsidiary of Bank of Ireland.

There are no details requiring disclosure for Andrew under paragraph 6.6.7 (2) to (6) of the Listing Rules.

Changes to Group Structure
Having embedded considerable benefits from the sharing of best practice and synergies in areas such as segment/product propositions, operational management and infrastructure the Group is enhancing the visibility of and focus on two of our most significant businesses.  Accordingly, for strategic management purposes we will split our Retail (Ireland & UK) Division into Retail Ireland Division and Retail UK Division.  Each will be headed up by separate Divisional Chief Executives who will be members of the Group Executive Committee.

Changes to Group Executive Committee
Des Crowley will be Chief Executive of the Retail UK Division where he will be responsible for the various UK based retail businesses within our subsidiary Bank of Ireland (UK) plc and outside the subsidiary.  Prior to this he held a number of positions on the Group Executive Committee since 2000, including Chief Executive, Retail Financial Services and Chief Executive UK Financial Services, having joined Bank of Ireland from Arthur Andersen.  As we work through the revised structure we will need FSA regulatory approval for key changes/appointments which we make during the course of transition.

Liam McLoughlin will be Chief Executive of the Retail Ireland Division, where he will be responsible for the Branch Network, Business Banking, Mortgages, Personal Lending, Debit & Credit Cards and Wealth Management.  Liam has been Head of Group Manufacturing since July 2009.  Prior to that he held a number of senior positions in the Capital Markets and Finance Divisions.  He joined Bank of Ireland in 2004 from Ulster Bank Group prior to which he had been Financial Controller with the National Treasury Management Agency.  Qualifying with PricewaterhouseCoopers he is a fellow of Chartered Accountants Ireland.

Senan Murphy joins Bank of Ireland to become Head of Group Manufacturing.  Senan , a chartered accountant , was most recently Chief Operating Officer and Finance Director at Ulster Bank whom he joined in 2008 having previously been Finance Director at Airtricity. Before that Senan worked in a number of senior roles in General Electric in both the US and Ireland.  In his role with Bank of Ireland, Senan will be responsible for managing and enhancing the Group’s infrastructure (including its technology), customer service and contact centres, collection activities, its customer payment activities and cash distribution.  Senan will be a member of the Group Executive Committee.

Mr Murphy will join the Bank shortly and will transition into his new role for the implementation date of the new Group Structure at which time Mr Crowley and Mr McLoughlin will formally take on their new roles.

The new Group Structure will have an implementation date of mid March 2012.

1 February 2012
 
Enquiries:
Dan Loughrey, Head of Group Corporate Communications Ph: 00-353-623-4770
Helen Nolan, Group Secretary Ph: 00-353-76-623-4710

Banco Santander is a symbol of what is wrong throughout Spain’s economy, and what must be done to repair it.

The bank has a massive real estate portfolio. Real estate values have collapsed in Spain, perhaps worse than in the U.S. The reasons are similar to America’s — overbuilding early last decade and an unemployment rate that has risen to levels that are both troubling and unlikely to be reversed.

It is widely believed that the fortunes of Europe’s largest banks and Europe’s most troubled countries are inexorably linked. Banks hold sovereign debt in nations that must be bailed out. Private investors, which include banks, will be asked to write down part of the value of those loans. Banco Santander’s trouble is even worse than just the drop in value of government paper. Real estate values in Spain will not improve. The solutions to the nation’s unemployment rate of more than 22% seem beyond the ability of Spain’s financially troubled government to effect.

As the European Union looks to a possible rescue of Spain, its debt and deficit are not at the top of the list of its problems as they may be in a country like Greece. Greek banks are certainly in trouble, but Banco Santander may be the single best example of a financial firm that helped cause the problems in its own country. It lent against assets the value of which could never have been sustained. Now, the Spanish government is left to clean up the mess.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Our take is that Mark Zuckerberg has been holding out to achieve a $100 billion market valuation for the IPO.  Even if Facebook does not deliver on its IPO paperwork next week, the IPO is coming soon.  The company is going to have to disclose its financials sooner or later due to its large base of shareholders.

GSV Capital Corporation (NASDAQ: GSVC) already owns shares of Facebook and its share have popped by 3% to $15.60 on this news.  As a reminder, Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT) invested in this and now should have exponential implied valuation gains on what sounded silly at the time.

Don’t forget about iShares KLD 400 Social Index Fund (NYSE: DSI).  It will end up being a holder as well and this should increase the trading volume of that ETF whether it is up or down in share prices.

Facebook is ONE OF OUR TOP 17 IPOs FOR 2012

Until an SEC filing hits the tape, we are treating this as a rumor.  One of many rumors.  Supposedly the Facebook IPO will create over 1,000 new millionaires.

JON C. OGG