Sources vary from all over the web, and mainstream media articles often have different figures when they are close together in time.  Official sales data is not updated all the time.  Still, the $30 billion franchise value is heading up now because of the 3D launch of ”Star Wars: The Phantom Menace” as the (probable) first but not last of the Star Wars remakes coming in 3D.

The relaunch of the movie franchise in 3D is likely to boost the franchise’s value much more when you count ticket sales, and then tally up merchandise sales, new media sales, product sales and more.  Box Office Mojo noted that The Phantom Menace in 3D is going to appear in 2,655 theaters.  Throw in the intellectual property values and future sales, and the value will head far north of $30 billion. 

It was just in 2007 that Forbes noted, “Star Wars’ initial release was followed by another five blockbuster films and a mini-industry of tapes and DVDs, toys, video games and books. Taken together over its 30 years of cultural dominance, the Star Wars franchise has earned more than $22 billion.”   Another figure in late 2011 put the total Star Wars franchise value at a whopping $27 billion from Statistic Brain (using Forbes and Lucasfilm data).  We also have gathered more recent data than those prior calculations.

Star Wars creator George Lucas is now a multi-billionaire.  The Forbes wealthiest 400 list puts Lucas at a net worth of $3.2 billion in its September 2011 report and that is lower than the $3.6 billion in a prior report.

Read Also: The Most Valuable Film Franchises of All-Time

Another 2007 figure used by Forbes was a monstrous $9 billion in toys with another $1.6 billion at the time having been generated by Star Wars video games.  More toys have sold since then, and more video game sales have been seen.

Brand new data from Electronic Arts Inc. (NASDAQ: ERTS) shows over 2 million MMORPG have sold of ‘Star Wars: The Old Republic’ through the end of January with some 1.7 million online users.  Taking just half of the users with a two-month average life of subscriber dollars comes to $180 million in total revenues between sales and subscriptions in just the first quarter of 2012.  Then there will be the tail revenue stream from loyalists and those in the next upgrade coming soon, generating millions of dollars more each month. If the success remains, a business mind would easily predict another MMORPG sale in the future.

Lucas Licensing of Lucasfilms has noted over $20 billion in consumer sales worldwide.  This includes Hasbro, Inc. (NASDAQ: HAS) and Kenner toys, merchandise sold, over 100 million books sold (with over 80 New York Times best sellers), museum exhibitions, apparel, consumer electronics, housewares, and the endless lines of other products.  The $20 billion figure has been used for quite some time as well by Lucasfilm on its site.  Imagine the sales that will soon be counted if you just looked at the major retail store websites: Toys R Us had 603 items; WalMart had 539 items; and Target had 800 items.

The Total Value of Star Wars Today…

• $4.27 Billion in worldwide box office sales (See full chart below), not adjusted for ticket price hikes in today’s dollars
• $20 billion in Licensing sales (toys, books, apparel, consumer products, and on)
• $3 billion in video games (over 100 million units sold)
• $2.5 billion, and climbing, in DVD sales
• $800 million (or more) and climbing in movie rentals (going from DVD back to VHS and even Betamax)

THE GRAND TOTAL… $30.57 BILLION, and growing…

Forget about the $30.5 billion in total sales so far.  That assumes that all sales suddenly stop in the next few weeks. We will not count the $3.2 billion in net worth of George Lucas because that is a personal net worth even if there is overlap in some of the areas we would cover.

Verizon Wireless, the joint venture between Verizon Communications Inc. (NYSE: VZ) and Vodafone Group plc (NASDAQ: VOD), did not just sit on its hands while AT&T tried to push through the T-Mobile deal. The company paid $3.6 billion for unused spectrum owned by SpectrumCo, a consortium of Comcast Corp. (NASDAQ: CMCSA), Time Warner Cable Inc. (NYSE: TWC), and Bright House Networks.

Other potential AT&T acquisitions include MetroPCS Communications Inc. (NYSE: PCS), Leap Wireless International Inc. (NASDAQ: LEAP), and even Sprint Nextel Corp. (NYSE: S). But none would be as good as a deal for Dish.

AT&T’s main problem is that it would have to pay a premium price for Dish — perhaps as much as $50/share, or about 70% above today’s share price. That would value Dish at around $22 billion, a steep price given that AT&T just paid out $4 billion to T-Mobile in break-up fees. Even Ma Bell can’t afford to pay that kind of money too often for nothing in return, and it’s a sure bet that Dish would want a substantial break-up fee as part of any deal.

A report at Bloomberg News notes that Verizon Wireless owns 56 percent more 4G spectrum than AT&T in the top 10 markets and 46 percent more in the top 100. Verizon Wireless also claims 107.7 million subscribers compared with AT&T’s 100.7 million. Had AT&T been able to acquire T-Mobile, it would have increased its spectrum by 62%, leveling the playing field.

Dish recently acquired wireless spectrum from two bankrupt satellite television companies for about $2.8 billion in a deal that is still awaiting FCC approval. Verizon’s deal with SpectrumCo also needs regulatory approval, and so far there is no indication that either approval is in trouble.

But what does AT&T want with a satellite TV business? Of course it could hive it off once the deal is done, but it might make more sense to go after MetroPCS or Leap, both of which are simply wireless carriers. Or AT&T might be able to get Dish to sell just the spectrum. That would not be the best deal for Dish shareholders, but the company’s management would certainly be able to retire following such a transaction.

Dish shares are trading up more than 2% today at $29.34 in a 52-week range of $20.85-$32.56. Shares of AT&T are up almost 1% at $30.30 in a 52-week range of $27.20-$31.94.

One issue to consider… Dish would have every right in the world to demand another massive deal break-up fee in case the telecom giant could not convince regulators that this is good for consumers.

Paul Ausick

The US Federal Communications Commission is reviewing the purchase now, and the regulatory body is reportedly concerned about two major aspects of the deal: first, what happens to Verizon Wireless’s fibre-optic service, FiOS; and second, what effect will the cross-marketing agreements that were part of the deal have on competition?

Analysts at Goldman Sach have a suggestion, according to a report at Bloomberg News. Verizon should dump its wireline business and merge with Vodafone in the wireless business. A Goldman analyst claims, “[The] agreement on a frequency purchase and marketing cooperation that Verizon’s mobile-phone unit reached in December with U.S. cable operators led by Comcast would make separating [Verizon’s] divisions easier.” Vodafone shares jumped more than 2% in the UK on the news.

There are a couple of problems with Goldman’s analysis. First, the “separation” the firm is recommending is very likely the single thing that Verizon could do to assure that the FCC rejects the SpectrumCo deal. The only way the FCC would approve a “separation” is if Verizon found a buyer for its wireline business and the pension liabilities that would tag along.

That’s the second problem. Goldman’s analysts appear to think that there are potential buyers lined up for this. Verizon’s wireline business is likely to post revenues of more than $40 billion in 2011. A buyer would have to have pretty deep pockets. And then there’s this tidbit from Verizon’s third-quarter Form 10-Q:

Net cash provided by operating activities during the nine months ended September 30, 2011 decreased by $3.6 billion compared to the similar period in 2010 primarily due to inventory purchases for wireless devices and higher pension plan contributions.

The lion’s share of that $3.6 billion was certainly in pension plan contributions. What buyer is going to want to take over that part of the wireline business?

A cynic might say that Goldman’s analysis is not much more than beating the drum for some nice advisory, management, and underwriting fees should Verizon choose to follow this advice. A realist might say that Goldman’s proposal is a nominee for this year’s Mr. Dumas Award.

Paul Ausick

The US Department of Justice is investigating the spectrum deal to determine whether or not it is anti-competitive and could jeopardize competition in the telecommunications industry. AT&T Inc. (NYSE: T), Deutsche Telekom AG (OTC: DTEGY), and Sprint Nextel Corp. (NYSE: S) will be watching this very closely.

The Washington Post reports that the DoJ has confirmed the investigation, and an unidentified official has said that the department is most concerned about the cross-marketing aspects of the deal. In the press release announcing the deal, Verizon Wireless had this to say about the cross-marketing arrangement:

The companies also announced that they have entered into several agreements, providing for the sale of various products and services. Through these agreements, the cable companies, on the one hand, and Verizon Wireless, on the other, will become agents to sell one another’s products and, over time, the cable companies will have the option of selling Verizon Wireless’ service on a wholesale basis. Additionally, the cable companies and Verizon Wireless have formed an innovation technology joint venture for the development of technology to better integrate wireline and wireless products and services.

The DoJ does not want Verizon to give up on its fibre optic network, called FiOS, and focus entirely on the wireless market. The cross-marketing agreements also gives former competitors little reason to keep competing. Verizon gets to continue building out its 4G LTE network and to add value by getting access to Comcast and Time Warner content. The cable companies get to expand into wireless services without having to build a costly physical network. The spectrum licenses held by SpectrumCo were sold with the intention that they would spur competition, not kill it.

A month ago we could have said that it is unlikely that the DoJ will kill this deal. But now that the AT&T/T-Mobile USA merger is dead due to the mere threat of anti-trust litigation, it’s not out of the question that the DoJ will at least force some changes to the Verizon-SpectrumCo deal.

Paul Ausick

The biggest problem with the cable companies’ set top boxes is the nearly impenetrable user interface. The new Xbox Live software completely changes that, replacing the hierarchical menus with a graphical interface that can accept voice, touch, and motion commands as well as commands from a smartphone or other handheld device. The idea is to make the TV interface as intuitive and easy-to-use as a smartphone.

Apple’s latest Apple TV offering lets users stream content from the iPhone to a TV set through its AirPlay feature. Google is working with Samsung Electronics (OTC: SSNLF) to integrate Google TV directly into a TV set. Users will still need a cable TV subscription to gain access to cable programming through the Xbox or other TV device.

One interesting thing about all this is that Microsoft, Apple, and Google are very likely to take over the distribution of content from cable companies like Comcast and Verizon Communications Inc. (NYSE: VZ). Not having to design, build, and market a set top box with a modern interface is not a bad thing for the cable guys, who will still make money by requiring users to pay for the cable subscription. Customers, of course, will very likely have to pay a (modest) fee to Microsoft, Apple, or Google for the privilege of connecting to the TV through another device. Xbox Live, for example, requires a $5/month fee for its premium service which allows users to control the TV.

Another possibility is that the TV control software will be paid for by advertising. Xbox Live does include advertising, and although Google has not revealed what it plans to do with its software, the company could choose to offer the TV software on an ad-supported basis.

A second interesting thing about Microsoft’s announcement is that this is one area in which Microsoft could actually be leading both Apple and Google. The Xbox Live interface is consistent with the Windows Phone 8 interface and will be the same as the user interface on Windows 8 which is due in the second half of next year. Apple was first to integrate handheld smartphones and tablets with a TV, but the Microsoft offering is far more mature than Apple’s offering. Google got sidetracked on a failed try with Logitech International SA (NASDAQ: LOGI), but its TV deal with Samsung could change things around because Samsung also sells more Android-based phones than any other company. Integrating Android with a TV is natural extension, but Google and Samsung are getting a bit of a late start.

The Xbox Live announcement could usher in the next big thing or it could just be another swing and miss at the integration of computing devices and TV sets. This time does look like it will be different.

Paul Ausick

If you just watched the Cablevision stock chart, it would seem as though cable was dying.  It is not.  Cablevision has been cleaning its books up and it has parted ways with Madison Square Garden and AMC Networks for the most part.  Again, those changes skew the stock charts.

We no longer have any serious hope of takeover ambitions resurfacing, but the Dolan family did try to buy it before at much higher prices and that deal was rejected.  The current market cap is only $4.3 billion and that does make it capable of a deal if another player wanted to make an offer.  A sum-of-the-parts analysis remains “oversold” and this value is solely on the merits of the company on a standalone basis. This one can still slide if the market softens, but this remains underpriced and we think higher prices will be reflected when things normalize.

Dividend and income investors now have an accidentally high-yield of almost 4%.  Even after the AMC spin-off, shares fell from $25 to under $15 and the selling was just too harsh for a company that trades at close to 11.5-times 2012 earnings estimates. 
Our take is that Cablevision should easily be a $20.00 stock after the dust settles, and that opinion has nothing to do with what Barron’s touted as being worth $30.00 per share in a buyout. 

The current $15.00 share price compares to a Thomson Reuters consensus price target of $22.14.  Our projection calls for close to 33% gains due to mispricing right now, and our projection is even less than the consensus target and far less than what Barron’s recently published.

This was one of seven oversold picks poised for a comeback which was offered recently to our readers who sign up for our free daily newsletter service.  Each morning’s free newsletter is sent by email and includes the top news headlines, shows the top 15 or so analyst upgrades and downgrades, covers activist investor and insider trading, and offer key trading alerts for investors. Sign up in the box below.

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JON C. OGG

The James Bond franchise has more than 20 movies already and is getting a new film in 2012.  Then there is the extremely successful Twilight series, which grossed about $1.8 billion in sales in its first three films alone. The two-part Breaking Dawn installments, to be released in November 2011 and in November 2012, will push the franchise’s value even higher and it could easily move into the top ten. Similarly, the three Ice Age films have grossed about $1.92 billion. The fourth installment, coming in July 2012, could make it another worthy contender for the top-grossing franchises.

Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol, the fourth in the MI franchise, will hit theaters in December 2011. So far, the three previous movies have grossed about $1.4 billion. Men in Black and Ghostbusters were large film franchises and each has a third film coming in 2012, although neither seems likely to be a serious challenger to the top ten of all-time.

Star Trek’s franchise is so far eleven films, with $1.3 billion in box office sales, is currently far from contention as a top ten movie franchise. The success of the “reboot,” along with a new sequel in the summer of 2012, could propel the franchise up in the ranking if they keep making new films. Similarly, the Iron Man series, which grossed so far $1.2 billion with the first two films, could be propelled much higher with the upcoming Avengers and Iron Man films. James Cameron’s Titanic from 1997 has grossed $1.843 billion in global ticket sales, but the film is about to get new life with a 3-D release in 2012 even if most viewers know the fate of the ship and the characters.

Some blockbuster movie franchises like The Matrix, Jurassic Park, Toy Story, Indiana Jones, X-Men, and a dozen or so others are currently just honorable mentions.  The current threshold to be a top-ten movie franchise is effectively about $2.5 billion in global box office ticket sales. That does not even count DVD sales, rental fees, comics, books, toys, memorabilia, and other movie merchandise. The coming waves of new sequels and prequels will raise that threshold much higher. Almost all sales data came from Box Office Mojo and some international sales data on older films came from IMDB.

Here are 24/7 Wall St.’s top ten movie franchises of all-time:

The company blamed the subscriber losses on more intense competition and a weak economy. The company’s main competitor, DirecTV (NASDAQ: DTV) offered subscribers free access to all NFL games, an offer that led to subscriber growth of 327,000 in the third quarter. Dish has no comparable deal with the NFL. The weak economy also hits Dish’s generally lower-income subscribers harder, causing them to cancel subscriptions more quickly when pennies need to be pinched. The company’s churn rate fell, from 1.98% a year ago to 1.83% in the third quarter, but the competitive punch from DirecTV and the “quality of subscribers acquired in past quarters” remain significant threats to subscriber retention.

Dish is also trying to position itself in the streaming market, where Verizon Communications Inc. (NYSE: VZ), AT&T (NYSE: T) are also competing for customers of their high-value broadband services. Then there are Netflix Inc. (NASDAQ: NFLX) and Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN) which also offer subscription packages for streaming video.

Dish is still trying to finalize its acquisitions of DBSD North America and TerreStar, which the company plans to use to integrate wireless and wireline services in a single offering. FCC approval is pending for both acquisitions, but even if it comes, there are still a lot of questions about whether or not Dish can make the offering work.

The company is also working to integrate its acquisition of Blockbuster. The introduction of its ‘Blockbuster Movie Pass’ during the quarter didn’t exactly bring a rush of new subscribers. Current subscribers have to pay $10/month, more than either Netflix or Amazon charges for streaming content. Dish is hedging its plan to keep the 1,500 bricks-and-mortar stores it acquired with the Blockbuster purchase, saying it has negotiated “flexible termination” leases on 900 of the stores in the event that revenue growth doesn’t materialize as planned.

Dish reported diluted EPS of $0.71 on revenue of $3.6 billion. The consensus estimates called for EPS of $0.73 on revenue of $3.63 billion. Subscriber losses were forecast at 81,000, considerably below the actual loss of 111,000. To soften the blow, the company announced that it would pay a one-time dividend of $2/share

EchoStar Corp. (NASDAQ: SATS), the satellite spin-off from Dish, also reported third-quarter earnings today. The company posted revenue of $863 million and an EPS loss of -$0.22. Analysts were expecting revenue of $755 million and EPS of $0.38. Because Dish buys its set-top boxes from EchoStar, and because Dish had fewer gross additions, EchoStar felt the pain.

Dish carries a market cap of around $10.5 billion, about a third of DirecTV’s and a sixth of Comcast Corp.’s (NASDAQ: CMCSA) and a tenth of Verizon’s. What Dish is trying to integrate — wireless spectrum, wireline broadband, video rental stores, video streaming, satellite subscriptions — could be a huge success or not. If the company appears to be making it happen, a buyout by a telecom compay — say, Verizon — could make a lot of sense. We’ll know the integration is not working, if Dish ends up selling its spectrum licenses. Those are the key to its grand plan.

Dish is trading down more than -3% in the pre-market this morning, at $22.70, in a 52-week range of $17.95-$32.56.

Paul Ausick

There are plenty of challenges facing the network and cable TV industry these day, not the least of which is the growth in streaming video. The well-known troubles of Netflix Inc. (NASDAQ: NFLX) to one side for a moment, the market for streaming is growing, while some cable operators are losing subscribers. Broadcast networks with content to license are better placed to profit, while cable operators with their own spectrum might be in the best position of all, at least in the near term.We’re looking today at 10 companies with broadcast or satellite/cable businesses (or both): CBS Corp. (NYSE: CBS), Walt Disney Co. (NYSE: DIS), Comcast Corp. (NASDAQ: CMCSA), Time Warner Cable Inc. (NYSE: TWC), Dish Network Corp. (NASDAQ: DISH), DIRECTV (NASDAQ: DTV), Viacom, Inc. (NYSE: VIA), Liberty Starz Group (NASDAQ: LSTZA), Discovery Communications Inc. (NASDAQ: DISCA), and Charter Communications Inc. (NASDAQ: CHTR).

All data from Yahoo! Finance and current stock prices were gathered about noon today.

CBS Corp. (NYSE: CBS) has a median target price of $31.00 from 22 brokers. Shares are trading today at $25.66, for an implied gain of $5.34, or 21%. CBS’s forward P/E is 11.62 and the company pays a dividend yield of 1.6%. The stock’s 52-week trading range is $15.99-$29.68, and at today’s price that’s about 60% above its 52-week low, posted earlier this morning, and 14% below the 52-week high. CBS is scheduled to release third-quarter earnings on Thursday. The consensus EPS estimate is $0.46 on revenue of $3.43 billion. A year ago the company posted sales of about $3.3 billion and last quarter revenue totaled nearly $3.6 billion. There’s room for the share price to rise, but neither the 52-week high nor the target price are endangered in the near term.

Walt Disney Co. (NYSE: DIS) has a median target price of $40.00 from 24 brokers. Shares are trading today at $35.34, for an implied gain of $4.66, or 13%. Disney’s forward P/E is 12.28 and the company pays a dividend yield of 1.1%. The stock’s 52-week trading range is $28.19-$44.34, and at today’s price that’s about 25% above its 52-week low, posted earlier this morning, and 20% below the 52-week high. Disney is much more than a distribution channel. Its ability to create compelling content and then license it for further distribution is practically equal to a license to print money. Analysts expect EPS of $0.54 on revenue of $10.36 billion when Disney reports third-quarter earnings next week.

Comcast Corp. (NASDAQ: CMCSA) has a median target price of $30.00 from 24 brokers. Shares are trading today at $23.60, for an implied gain of $6.40, or 27%. Comcast’s forward P/E is 12.35 and the company pays a dividend yield of 1.9%. The stock’s 52-week trading range is $19.19-$27.16, and at today’s price that’s about 23% above its 52-week low, posted earlier this morning, and 13% below the 52-week high. Comcast owns both content and the fat pipes to distribute that content. Because distribution of streaming content is fast becoming a commodity, it’s Comcast’s NBCUniversal media business that will carry Comcast forward. The $30 target price is probably safe for a while, but the company’s 52-week high could be in the sights.

Time Warner Cable Inc. (NYSE: TWC) has a median target price of $85.00 from 22 brokers. Shares are trading today at $62.91, for an implied gain of $22.09, or 35%. Time Warner’s forward P/E is 11.25 and the company pays a dividend yield of 3.1%. The stock’s 52-week trading range is $47.89-$79.21, and at today’s price that’s about 31% above its 52-week low, posted earlier this morning, and 21% below the 52-week high. In its last quarter, Time Warner lost subscribers and posted lower profits. The company believes it will make its forecast annual profit, but warned that advertising was falling. It’s easy for subscribers to drop cable subscriptions in a tight economy, and as the holidays come round, dropping cable service to have a few more bucks to spend on gifts will occur to a lot of viewers.

CTI Towers is said to be launching with approximately 800 towers that were previously owned and operated by Comcast Cable subsidiaries. The unit will actively lease tower space to wireless operators and other tenants.

This may be noise to some and may be common sense to others.  If the company already had the towers as is, then it is only logical.  American Tower Corporation (NYSE: AMT) also probably knew this was coming.  Comcast named Anthony Peduto as the CEO of CTI Towers, and he has prior experience as the COO of Optasite (which was in the acquisition and development of telecommunications tower sites) and he was also Vice President of the West and Northeast regions of none other than American Tower Corporation.

Comcast has an extensive network and this seems to be only a continuation of how to add some revenues and profits on top of existing infrastructure that was already in place. 

American Tower  is worth nearly $22 billion in market value today.  Its global solutions include over 37,000 towers (about 25,000 in America), 2,300+ managed rooftops, in-building and outdoor Distributed Antenna System networks.  American Tower is also reorganizing into a REIT as well, indicating that the company will be shelling out almost all of its income as dividends.

Crown Castle International Corporation (NYSE: CCI) is worth just over $12 billion.  It said on its most recent release that it owns, operates, and manages more than 22,000 U.S. sites (in 92 of the top 100 markets) and about 1,600 wireless communication sites in Australia.

At SBA Communications Corporation (NASDAQ: SBAC), it owned 9,290 tower sites and also noted that it manages or leases approximately 5,200 actual or potential communications sites as of March 31, 2011.  SBA’s value is put around $4 billion.

Putting a raw value on a new unit with assets in place but without the knowledge of who will be customers is difficult to do immediately.  A ballpark of value add could be as little as $500 million or as much as $2 billion, but those numbers would be highly subjective and the true valuation could fluctuate wildly from source to source.  Comcast currently has a market capitalization of more than $61 billion.

JON C. OGG