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Yesterday’s surprise move from India that sent gold through the roof to almost $1,085.00 per ounce was a game changing event in gold. Many technical analysts and chartists were looking for, or at least hoping for, a further consolidation in the price of the shiny yellow stuff. Yet now that appears to not be the case. This has broad ramifications for the SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD) and for Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSE: GDX); and it also of course will help push top-line and bottom line improvements to the likes of two of the huge players of Barrick Gold Corporation (NYSE: ABX) and for Goldcorp Inc. (NYSE: GG). This morning we received an audio-visual slide show technical analysis presentation from one of our affiliates INO. This was by Adam Hewison, who we have noted was making a big gold call for a move to $1,100 and then $1,200 or even higher back when gold prices were consolidating and well under the $1,000 mark.
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Posts related to ‘Charts’
Has the S&P 500 Index Peaked? (SPY)
The SPDRs (NYSE: SPY) is perhaps the most liquid of all ETF products in the world as it tracks the benchmark S&P 500 Index. One of our affiliates has just posed the very important and developing question… Has the S&P 500 peaked? There is even a detailed audio/video presentation here showing this, and his take is that the S&P is nearing a very critical apex, or what we would call a flag or pennant. What we see as the biggest risk to the S&P and stock market overall is that the dollar just cannot fall indefinitely, even if it can still go lower through time.
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Subscriber Growth For Major Chinese Mobile Companies (CHL, CHU, CHA)
Today China Mobile (NYSE: CHL) posted big numbers in its subscriber growth, claiming 500 million mobile users. By this metric, China Mobile can claim the title of the worlds biggest mobile company. However, looking at subscribers in terms of percentage growth over the past year tells a different story. The first chart below compares China Mobile, China Unicom (NYSE: CHU), and China Telecom (NYSE: CHA) on the basis of monthly subscriber growth off the September 2008 base. The second shows the monthly change in each stock price off their respective September 2008 price. (It should it be noted that there is a delay in the release of the monthly subscriber number for each company.)
Chart 1: Monthly Subscriber Growth, September 08-September 09
Chart 2: Monthly change in stock price, September 08-September 09
While some may appreciate steady companies, its hard not to like the exponential growth in China Telecom’s mobile subscriber base.
Garrett W. McIntyre
Technician Call: Oil to $90+, But Questions Seasonality (USO, GLD, OIL, OIH)
Now that Gold has busted $1,000.00 and headed up almost every day since, the next target commodity is oil and the question is if black gold can mirror the performance of yellow gold. One of our affiliates has a quick detailed technical analysis audio/video presentation that shows the possibility of much higher oil prices. The United States Oil (NYSE: USO) is harder to use as a measure to directly track oil tick for tick, because unlike the SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD) directly investing in gold bullion, as the USO tries to track oil prices by rolling futures contracts. The iPath S&P GSCI Crude Oil Total Return Index ETN (NYSE: OIL) also uses crude oil futures contract (plus the T-Bill rate of interest that could be earned) to track oil prices.
While using the price of oil as a tracking measure is hard to do outside of directly trading oil, the Oil Services HOLDRs (NYSE: OIH) is one of the best way to play the big oil services companies and it often tracks broader oil prices more than the large integrated oil players.
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Stocks That Missed the Rally (ABT, MO, AWK, BKC, ENER, GENZ, KR, ORB, WMT, LEAP, PCS)
Here we are going into yet another earnings season. We saw Monday how the market has rallied significantly from the March lows and the major indexes are even up in positive territory for the 2009 calendar. The DJIA is up 51% from its absolute lows of March, and the S&P 500 has rallied more than 61% from its absolute lows in March. If you look at the December 31, 2008 closing bell levels, the DJIA is now up about 12.75% and the S&P 500 is now up more than 19% year-to-date.
But almost as always, there are still some key very large and/or very active stocks which have not recovered anywhere close to the same amounts with the overall stock markets. Some of these lagging stocks are Abbott Laboratories (NYSE: ABT), Altria Group Inc. (NYSE: MO), American Water Works Company, Inc. (NYSE: AWK), Burger King Holdings Inc. (NYSE: BKC), Energy Conversion Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ: ENER), Genzyme Corp. (NASDAQ: GENZ), Kroger Co. (NYSE: KR), Orbital Sciences Corp. (NYSE: ORB) and Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT). Two similar situation stocks that are Leap Wireless International Inc. (NASDAQ: LEAP) and MetroPCS Communications Inc. (NYSE: PCS). We wanted to explore the forward values and relative performance, and the consensus estimates based upon Thomson Reuters data. Only two of these stocks have market capitalization rates under $1 billion, and almost all are very actively traded and well known in their sectors.
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Shanghai Rockets Higher At The Open
The Shanghai stock exchange rocketed up 2..5 % after being closed most of the week.
Energy stocks lead by PetroChina (NYSE:PTR) made among the largest moves as crude traded up toward $72.
Douglas A. McIntyre
Record Gold Prices Spark ETF/ETN (GLD, SLV)
Gold has just hit a new contract high of $1,035.00 on a nominal basis. While this is far short of an inflation-adjusted price compared to the 1980’s highs, this is still a nominal high. The SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD) are up 1.7% at $101.55 this morning, which is above that old $108.08 high. We have been noting an affiliate of ours who has been calling emphatically for higher gold prices. Yesterday, in a call that was against the US Dollar and against the S&P 500 Index, the call for gold was for a move above the old power band and a surge to $1,200.00 or possibly even higher. Gold’s gains are taking silver and copper higher as well. We have the iShares Silver Trust (NYSE: SLV) up 3.2% at $16.91 in pre-market trading, although its recent high is $17.26.
JON C. OGG
OCTOBER 6, 2009
Technical Analysis Predictions For Q4 (SPY, UUP, UDN, GLD, TLT, TBT)
Maybe it is time after a 50%+ gain in the major equity indexes, or maybe it is just everyone getting into the October bearish mode. We are hearing more and more calls for a very weak equities market ahead. One of our affiliates just ran a detailed audio/video presentation showing what the charts are expecting for Q4-2009 in the S&P 500, the US Dollar Index, Gold, and even bond yields. Unfortunately this is a bad prediction for stocks and can be tracked directly by the SPDR (NYSE: SPY), or Spyders. This prediction also has some gloom forecast for the US Dollar Index, which can be tracked in the PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish (NYSE: UUP) and in the PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bearish (NYSE: UDN). That is partly for the call for much higher Gold, which can be tracked most easily in the SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD). The prediction for bonds was not as finite, but at record lows we can’t really argue with the logic that yields can only go one way unless sideways is considered a directional change.
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The Unusual Suspects (APP, BRK-A, CPB, MTXX, MCO, MHP, RMBS, QQQQ, GDL, UNH)
It is the weekend, albeit a long three-day weekend for Labor Day. Earnings season is done, gone, bye-bye, but this coming week there are going to be some key events and key stocks to watch including American Apparel Inc. (AMEX:APP), Campbell Soup Co. (NYSE: CPB), Matrixx Initiatives Inc. (NASDAQ: MTXX), Moody’s Corp. (NYSE: MCO), McGraw-Hill (NYSE: MHP), Rambus, Inc. (NASDAQ: RMBS). On bigger market pundit calls, we want to watch the key ETF and ETN products of PowerShares QQQ (NASDAQ: QQQQ), the Semiconductor HOLDRS (NYSE: SMH), and Technology Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLK), SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD), the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSE: GDX), and the Ultra Gold ProShares (NYSE: UGL). Elsewhere, there is the death of the PowerShares DB Crude Oil Double Long ETN (DXO). Sears Holdings Corporation (NASDAQ: SHLD) will also be key to watch because of a response to a nasty Barron’s article.
The $1,000 Gold Call Returns (GLD, GDX, UGL, ABX, HMY)
The commodities call is back on. It isn’t $100 oil, but it is for $1,000.00 gold. We have two well respected market technicians calling for higher gold prices. At 10:12 AM EST, Spot Gold was trading at $982.34, a change of +$7.78 or +0.80%. Simultaneously, the SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD) was up 0.4% at $96.55. The Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSE: GDX), which is an ETF full of the top gold mining stocks, is up over 1.5% at $43.15 and has been all over the place this morning. The Ultra Gold ProShares (NYSE: UGL), which tries to track twice the dollar performance of gold bullion, was up 0.75% at $36.95 on fairly thin volume. Even Barrick Cold Corporation (NYSE: ABX), one of the largest miners and producers, was up 0.8% at $38.12 on active trading. Harmony Gold Mining Co. Ltd. (NYSE: HMY) is also up about 2.6% at $10.27, and this is despite J.P. Morgan downgrading this stock this morning to Hold from Buy.
One of our affiliates, INO.com, has an audio/video presentation by Adam Hewison that shows data back to 2001 and using current data to discuss the possibilities of a break-out coming up in the price of spot gold. This notes how yesterday was a large day and is back up to the resistance line. He still thinks that the $1,000.00 per ounce mark continues to be the big hurdle but that is possible to see even before the end of the week.
We also saw how Dennis Gartman yesterday was on CNBC talking about gold rallying more in foreign currency markets than the U.S. and he noted how something was going on there… particularly as gold went up the same day the bond market went up. It seems to Gartman that the vote is a bet on gold but one against the economy. What is funny is that Gartman thinks that everyone should have exposure to gold, but 2% to 3% of their portfolio or 5% in extreme cases.
And there is more to this yet, particularly as you go into 2010…
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The Unusual Suspects (ATVI, AIG, ALTH, TREE, GOOG, PAY, EXPO, WIRE, AXYS)
We have almost a whole new slate of stocks in this week’s round of “The Unusual Suspects” for key stocks traders need to keep an eye on for the week ahead. Activision Blizzard Inc. (NASDAQ: ATVI) was singled out by Barron’s. We ran a bit noting $100 as a possible target for American International Group Inc. (NYSE: AIG), and let’s just say that it was widely read. Allos Therapeutics Inc. (NASDAQ: ALTH) has a key FDA ruling this coming week. Tree.com, Inc. (NASDAQ: TREE) may have its model crushed by none other than Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG). And troubled VeriFone Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: PAY) has earnings due this coming week, right at a key stock inflection point. Exponent Inc. (NASDAQ: EXPO) and Encore Wire Corp. (NASDAQ: WIRE) are S&P index additions as new entrants. Axsys Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ: AXYS) also has a shareholder proxy date this week, and some think a higher buyout price may be in the works. We have run key details and previews for all of these to watch in the coming week.
Wal-Mart At Critical Chart Levels Into Earnings (WMT, RTH)
Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT) was supposed to be the big winner of the Great Recession as the giant trade-down retail play for America. Interestingly enough, the peak of the stock was almost 9-months ago long, before the last wave of major pain during the first two months of 2009. And it has underperformed greatly since the March lows. The S&P has rallied 50% from lows, yet today Wal-Mart is not even up 10% in the same apples-to-apples period. Tomorrow morning will mark the company’s Q2-2010 earnings report, but traders better take this chart into consideration as there is a major inflection point nearing. Based on this, we’d also be looking for a potential large move in the Retail HOLDRs (NYSE: RTH) ETF as well.
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Chart Events Forming in Key Tech Stocks (MSFT, AMZN, RIMM, ORCL, QCOM)
It is normal to see pullbacks. The problem is that most market pullbacks in the last five months have been rare or short-lived since the near-depression levels of early March. But it has also been hard to not notice the stalling out of some key tech stocks, and today we are seeing some critical long-term moving average violations as a result. We have looked as Stockcharts.com for these reviews and links through to show the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT), Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN), Research in Motion Ltd. (NASDAQ: RIMM), Oracle Corp. (NASDAQ: ORCL), and QUALCOMM Inc. (NASDAQ: QCOM) have all hit our longer-term initial screens for the day based 50-day moving averages.
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Charts vs. Fundamentals: How High Can Gold Go? (GG, ZLC, GLD, GDX, ABX)
This morning’s move in gold may have seemed like an anomaly as gold briefly traded up over $970.00 per ounce. The shiny yellow stuff rose $2.28 at $964.78 as of 10:42 AM EST. What is interesting is how the companies and instruments around the shiny metal have been trading and what they have been reporting. Gold Fields (NYSE: GG), Zale Corp. (NYSE: ZLC), SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD), Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSE: GDX), and Barrick Gold Corporation (NYSE: ABX) are all of focus and interest here.
One of our affiliates has run a chart based audio visual analysis with the expectation that next week will be a solid week in gold and a note that we could pass the $1,000.00 mark.
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When The S&P Closes Over 1,000 (SPY)
Everyone has figured out that the Dow Jones Industrial Average is a more difficult yardstick for the overall stock market because its price-weighted rather than market-weighted. But the S&P 500 Index, and therefore the SPDRs (NYSE: SPY), are the market. It was just in June and then again this month that resistance was coming into play at 925 and 950… yet the index is up 19 points today at 994.20 and suddenly we find ourselves within striking distance of the 1,000 mark. Hard to imagine when you consider that the index at the climax of the panic selling was down at the 666 handle.
So here is the question. How high can the S&P go before sellers win? The S&P has now recovered 50% from its absolute lows of March. We have smoothed out all of the trading from February and March to get a more clear picture now that we have escaped the next Great Depression. The index did reach the 832 handles even before the end of March. We are still up over 20% from April 1 on the S&P.
Oil Inventories Confirm Technical Event in ETF Charts (USO, OIL)
Oil was already against the ropes and off current highs because of the CFTC seeking limits on speculators and on non-end-user trading activities in the energy commodity markets. But this morning’s weekly oil inventory data from the Department of Energy is showing that either the weak economy and higher unemployment or the higher energy prices has created nothing short of a near-term demand cap. This DOE data has both the the United States Oil (NYSE: USO) ETF and the iPath S&P GSCI Crude Oil Total Return Index ETN (NYSE: OIL) in retreat.
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China Still The Main Driver Of Oil Prices
Rumors that China’s GDP and demand for oil are increasing continue to take oil prices up, even if they turn out not to be true.
The madness over a Chinese economic recovery grows by the day. The central government claims that its $585 billion stimulus package kept the nation’s GDP moving up 7% in the second quarter. China economic statistics have been criticized as unreliable, so it will never be known whether the March to June period was quite that good. Read More
Significant Moving Average Tests For DJIA and S&P 500 (DIA, SPY, SDS)
We won’t go as far as to say that the DJIA and the S&P 500 are directly correlated even after the recent rebalance. However, there is one common notion on today’s weakness that has brought up yet another serious chart alert. Both the DJIA and S&P 500 are down and the alerts came up regarding the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. This is being confirmed in both key market ETF’s in the charts of the DIAMONDS Trust (NYSE: DIA) and the SPDRs (NYSE: SPY).
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The Gartman Call: Shorting Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK-A, BRK-B)
If you follow charts, money-flows, and ways to play macro-trends, you probably know who Dennis Gartman is. We know that you know who Warren Buffett is, and Gartman’s call as a short selling candidate is none other than Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (NYSE: BRK-A) (NYSE: BRK-B).
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