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Baker Hughes, Inc. (NYSE: BHI) has released its data on the weekly rig counts and most are up. We are watching the key ETF products react via the Oil Services HOLDRs (NYSE: OIH), the Ultra Oil & Gas ProShares (NYSE: DIG), the United States Oil (NYSE: USO) ETF and the iPath S&P GSCI Crude Oil Total Return Index ETN (NYSE: OIL) react to this news. It will be interesting to see if this continues after the recent pause in oil.
Posts related to ‘Commodities’
Rig Count Growth Mostly Positive (BHI, OIH, DIG, USO, OIL)
Paulson Making Gold Rush Self-Fulfilling Prophecy (GLD, KGC, AU)
A broker noted something about this yesterday as a gold bug, and frankly it seemed far-fetched considering the size of the move we have already seen in recent weeks and months. But the talk was about John Paulson, the great bank and financial short seller who cleaned up betting against housing and financials, opening a gold fund. We noticed he held some miners, but after the chase up in gold bullion prices this seemed and still seems late to the party even if there is room to run. Today’s report from the Wall Street Journal shows that this may be more of a reality than a hope.
Paulson already has large stakes in key gold exposure with SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD), Kinross Gold Corporation (NYSE: KGC), and Anglogold Ashanti Ltd. (NYSE: AU). The tally on these three positions alone at today’s closing bell was about $5.5 billion if the stakes have remained the same. His stakes already listed are as follows:
Oil Inventories Heading Wrong Way (OIH, DIG, USO, OIL)
The Department of Energy has just released its weekly oil inventories data and those wanting stable prices from oil data may be disappointed. We are watching the key ETFs around the news via the Oil Services HOLDRs (NYSE: OIH), the Ultra Oil & Gas ProShares (NYSE: DIG), the United States Oil (NYSE: USO) ETF and the iPath S&P GSCI Crude Oil Total Return Index ETN (NYSE: OIL) reactions based upon the supply data. NYMEX WTI Crude is up $0.89 per barrel at $80.03 at 10:38 AM EST after the news.
Crude stockpiles fell by 887,000 barrels (to 336.789 million barrels) versus a Dow Jones target of -600,000. Frankly, anything negative was going to be a disappointment for us. And it only gets worse from there…
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Exxon: Weak Dollar Adding $20 to Oil Prices (XOM, USO)
The weak dollar has definitely been a contributor to the rise in the price of gold. And it is also partly responsible for some of the oil gains that took prices back over $80 per barrel before the recent pullback. But Rex Tillerson, the CEO of Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM), has actually quantified this with an assigned dollar value to CNBC. His take is that as much as $20.00 per barrel is tied to the weakness of the US Dollar.
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Ida: The Hurricaneless Hurricane (OIH, USO, OIL, MUR, MRO, RDS, CVX, XOM)
Oil and gas companies have closed or winding down many US Gulf operations ahead of a very late in the year Hurricane Ida. The weekend reports had this one dissipating then the reports early this morning had this making landfall as a tropical storm with [a possibility of it being hurricane. This morning Ida became a tropical storm again at the National Hurricane Center. In order to not have to out-guess ahead of time which companies will be least or most impacted had this been a full hurricane at the time it met rigs and the coast, we looked at the Oil Services HOLDRs (NYSE: OIH), the United States Oil (NYSE: USO) ETF and the iPath S&P GSCI Crude Oil Total Return Index ETN (NYSE: OIL) reactions based upon the supply data. While the infrastructure is now not as likely to be hit as hard and while a tropical storm is far less of a threat than a hurricane, NYMEX WTI Crude is actually still up $1.78 at $79.21 as of 10:13 AM EST.
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Yet Higher Gold Prices Cometh (GLD, GDX, ABX, GG)
Yesterday’s surprise move from India that sent gold through the roof to almost $1,085.00 per ounce was a game changing event in gold. Many technical analysts and chartists were looking for, or at least hoping for, a further consolidation in the price of the shiny yellow stuff. Yet now that appears to not be the case. This has broad ramifications for the SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD) and for Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSE: GDX); and it also of course will help push top-line and bottom line improvements to the likes of two of the huge players of Barrick Gold Corporation (NYSE: ABX) and for Goldcorp Inc. (NYSE: GG). This morning we received an audio-visual slide show technical analysis presentation from one of our affiliates INO. This was by Adam Hewison, who we have noted was making a big gold call for a move to $1,100 and then $1,200 or even higher back when gold prices were consolidating and well under the $1,000 mark.
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Oil Inventories Head Wrong Way, Again (OIH, DIG, USO, OIL)
The latest weekly inventories data from Department of Energy in crude and oil products is adding more support and adding fuel to a fire in the commodity rally today. It looks like we are back to larger draw-downs that expected. We are watching the Oil Services HOLDRs (NYSE: OIH), the Ultra Oil & Gas ProShares (NYSE: DIG), the United States Oil (NYSE: USO) ETF and the iPath S&P GSCI Crude Oil Total Return Index ETN (NYSE: OIL) reactions based upon the supply data. NYMEX WTI Crude is now up $1.13 at $80.73 as of 10:36 AM EST.
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India Buys 200 Tons Of Gold And Moves From The Dollar
The dollar is still losing its luster as the foreign reserve currency of choice. India has just bought 200 tons of gold from the IMF at $1,045 an ounce which is close to a recent record high of $1,070. The entire transaction is worth almost $7 billion. The move is seen as a way for India’s central bank to move some of its capital away from investments in the dollar.
The IMF may sell another 200 tons of gold in the relatively near future and most experts expect that the buyer will be China, which has foreign currency reserves of $2 trillion and might like to have its own hedge against the value of the American buck. Read More
Coal IPO Hikes Planned Sale (CLD, RTP, ACI)
It seems that there is no caution in all the pending Initial Public Offerings coming to market. Cloud Peak Energy, Inc. is raising the amount targeted for its capital raise of up to $650 million from an initial target of $500 million when the filing was first made in August 2009. This one will trade on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol “CLD” and the listed underwriters in the amended prospectus are Credit Suisse, Morgan Stanley, and RBC Capital Markets.
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Rig Counts Inching Back Up (BHI, OIH, DIG, USO, OIL)
This week’s data from Baker Hughes, Inc. (NYSE: BHI) on the weekly rig counts looks better and less mixed than in other weeks despite the notion that all projects should be financially sound at current levels. On the news, we are watching the key ETF products of the Oil Services HOLDRs (NYSE: OIH), the Ultra Oil & Gas ProShares (NYSE: DIG), the United States Oil (NYSE: USO) ETF and the iPath S&P GSCI Crude Oil Total Return Index ETN (NYSE: OIL) react to this news. The overall figure is up, but barely. Commodities players are mostly lower today, but more on the consumer data than on anything about rig counts.
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Are Inflation ETFs For You? (CPI, GRES)
This week marks the launch of two new exchange traded funds, both of which intend to offer investors a direct hedge against inflation. IndexIQ introduced the IQ CPI Inflation Hedged ETF (NYSE: CPI) and also introduced the IQ ARB Global Resources ETF (NYSE: GRES).
Investors generally need to seek investment returns that outpace inflation if they want to be up net-net throughout their lives. That being said, it will be interesting to see how these measure through time. In theory, these could offer Joe Public more hedging instruments for or against other investments used to beat the eroding factor of inflation down the road. One of these ETF products, the CPI trade, is very easy to factor in the moves. The other, the GRES trade, is likely to be more complex than what many retail investors may care about; and what many institutions may aim to achieve on their own.
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DOE Oil Inventories Back Up (OIH, DIG, USO, OIL)
We have just seen this week’s latest Department of Energy weekly oil inventory data. The new report is on the heels of a sudden rise in oil prices followed by an almost just as sudden drop in oil prices this week. Fortunately for the consumer, there was a rise in the key inventory data we follow. The question is if it is enough of a gain to keep oil as a commodity from attracting too much in new investment dollars. We are watching the Oil Services HOLDRs (NYSE: OIH), the Ultra Oil & Gas ProShares (NYSE: DIG), the United States Oil (NYSE: USO) ETF and the iPath S&P GSCI Crude Oil Total Return Index ETN (NYSE: OIL) reactions based upon the supply data. At 10:41 AM EST we have NYMEX WTI Crude down by $1.35 at $78.20 (down from the $79.75 level after inventory a week ago).
Mixed Bag on Oil Rig Counts (BHI, OIH, DIG, USO, OIL)
Baker Hughes, Inc. (NYSE: BHI) has released its weekly rig counts, and the results are not as strong as you would expect considering $80 oil is here. We have watched the Oil Services HOLDRs (NYSE: OIH), the Ultra Oil & Gas ProShares (NYSE: DIG), the United States Oil (NYSE: USO) ETF and the iPath S&P GSCI Crude Oil Total Return Index ETN (NYSE: OIL) react to this news. The overall figure is up, but barely.
Korea Joins China in Foreign Oil Acquisitions in Americas
Harvest Energy Trust (NYSE: HTE) is a Canadian energy trust that has gone unnoticed by many Americans. Yet today it is one of the top percentage gainers because the trust is being acquired by Korea National Oil Corp. in South Korea. It seems that South Korea is joining in following the waves of Chinese acquisitions of oil and energy sources located throughout the world. We have noted China’s insatiable appetite of securing these raw energy assets, and common sense would dictate that only more deals will come down the pipe.
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DOE Mixed Inventory Driving Oil Prices (OIH, DIG, USO, OIL)
The Department of Energy’s weekly energy inventories data is giving another mixed picture similar to last week. The difference is that this was more in-line with expectations that what we saw last week. We are watching the Oil Services HOLDRs (NYSE: OIH), the Ultra Oil & Gas ProShares (NYSE: DIG), the United States Oil (NYSE: USO) ETF and the iPath S&P GSCI Crude Oil Total Return Index ETN (NYSE: OIL) reactions based upon the supply data. At 10:44 AM EST we have NYMEX WTI Crude up $0.63 per barrel at $79.75 0.5% (up from the $76.43 after the last week’s inventory data).
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Refineries Throw Wrench in Oil Inventory Data (OIH, DIG, USO, OIL)
As usual, the weekly energy inventories data is giving a picture that can be construed as bullish or bearish for the price of oil and gas, yet there is a wrench in the machine from refineries that has energy prices higher. We are watching the Oil Services HOLDRs (NYSE: OIH), the Ultra Oil & Gas ProShares (NYSE: DIG), the United States Oil (NYSE: USO) ETF and the iPath S&P GSCI Crude Oil Total Return Index ETN (NYSE: OIL) reactions based upon the supply data. At 11:21 AM EST we have oil up +$0.83 at $76.43, for a gain of +1.09%.
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Quasi-IPO FILING: Golden Minerals Company (GDMN)
An initial public offering filing has been made by a company called Golden Minerals Company, although we would rate this as a quasi-IPO that looks more like a secondary offering and not a full blown IPO. This trades under the ticker of “GDMN” on the Pink Sheets and trades under the ticker “AUM” on the Toronto Stock Exchange. It plans to trade on the NYSE AMEX. No financial terms were given other than a proposed maximum offering of $115,000,000.00 and Dahlman Rose & Company, LLC will serve as the sole book-running manager.
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Technician Call: Oil to $90+, But Questions Seasonality (USO, GLD, OIL, OIH)
Now that Gold has busted $1,000.00 and headed up almost every day since, the next target commodity is oil and the question is if black gold can mirror the performance of yellow gold. One of our affiliates has a quick detailed technical analysis audio/video presentation that shows the possibility of much higher oil prices. The United States Oil (NYSE: USO) is harder to use as a measure to directly track oil tick for tick, because unlike the SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD) directly investing in gold bullion, as the USO tries to track oil prices by rolling futures contracts. The iPath S&P GSCI Crude Oil Total Return Index ETN (NYSE: OIL) also uses crude oil futures contract (plus the T-Bill rate of interest that could be earned) to track oil prices.
While using the price of oil as a tracking measure is hard to do outside of directly trading oil, the Oil Services HOLDRs (NYSE: OIH) is one of the best way to play the big oil services companies and it often tracks broader oil prices more than the large integrated oil players.
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US Natural Gas ETF Discloses Strategy Changes & Risks (UNG)
The United States Natural Gas (NYSE: UNG) is disclosing some current and future changes to its investment vehicle strategy in its attempt to manage its size and to track the price moves of natural gas. While the aim and goal of the ETF is to still trade around the price moves of natural gas, the managers are adopting additional investments so that the fund can more easily attempt to track the price moves of natural gas. As the fund became such a large portion of the natural gas futures market, it is deemed one of the key targets from the CFTC over all the limits in size and dominance over speculation in the energy commodities markets. While this was easy to expect, this can create higher risks and many ETF investors in this vehicle may have a hard time grasping what the fund they are investing in is really doing on a day to day basis.
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Orange Juice Gets More Expensive That Oil
Commodities prices are supposed to give some sign of inflation although the value of the dollar, spot demand for certain metal and agricultural products, or the kind of feeding frenzy driving up gold can push prices higher without the normal dynamics of demand Read More
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